Special Saturday
Real Writing on Racing 💯
☀️ Saratoga weather report : Perfect
🎪 One of the more difficult tasks in modern day handicapping is trying to determine what strategy connections/jockeys are going to employ in a given race. One move, by one jockey, on one horse can often completely change the complexion and dynamics of a race. Point in case, the 8th race Friday at Saratoga, the Evan Shipman, older NY breds going one mile out of the Wilson chute. There were two confirmed front runners in the field of seven, Therisastormbrewin and Sea Foam. Neither has had any success doing anything but running on the lead and both were ridden by what passes for aggressive jockeys in the 2022 racing world, Luis Saez and Kendrick Carmouche. Though there haven’t been that many races run out of the new chute, it’s apparent that those with speed need to utilize it in order to get good position turning down the backside. When the field broke, Carmouche from the outside post 7 immediately gunned Sea Foam while Saez seemed to do the same inside of him on Therisastormbrewin as they raced to the corner. After 150 yards they were side by side and it seemed the expected duel was on. Just as fast, Saez then took ahold of his gelding and conceded the lead to Sea Foam, perhaps to try to get outside of the other speed. Jose Ortiz on Market Alert saw this scenario developing and moved his mount to get that desired stalking position outside the leader Sea Foam, keeping Therisastormbrewin stuck on the inside, effectively killing any chance he had of success. This was less than 20 seconds into the race. Now Sea Foam was able to dictate the pace, setting less than rapid fractions (posted as 24.55 and 48.02 - very, very slow maidens in race two went 24.79 and 48.94). Market Alert was now stalking a single pace setter rather than a duel, making his task more difficult, and Joel Rosario wisely kept Bankit closer than expected, which in the end won the race for him and his horse. Perhaps he would have win anyway, he is the fastest, most accomplished horse in the field but for Sea Foam, Market Alert and Therisastormbrewin, one split second decision to not be aggressive changed the entire way things played out. Of course we aren’t privy to whatever pre-race instructions that are given but it pains me to see horses ridden in a manner entirely contrary to their desired style, generally giving them little chance for success. I’d much rather see them go down swinging, doing what they do best but onto the next…
🎪 The highs and the lows of the game were on display in 5 minutes before and after the first race. John Kimmel had two entries in the NYB 2 yo filly MSW race going 5.5 furlongs on the turf, Im Just Kiddin, a Justify filly (1/2 sister to BC FM Sprint winner Bar of Gold) who had been second in her only start on opening day and Kingsley, a Lord Nelson filly that had run third in her only start on July 4 at Belmont. As the horses were being loaded in the gate, Kingsley flipped over, dumping jockey Jose Gomez and getting loose and running off. She was quickly scratched and thankfully all looked to be okay. Just a few minutes later, the field left the gate and Im Just Kiddin settled in fourth behind a solid pace set by first timer Highway Harmony. Passing the quarter pole, Jose Ortiz set her in motion and Im Just Kiddin quickly made up ground and despite racing greenly mid-stretch, she passed the early leader and won rather comfortably. One five minute period, one horse with the bad experience and one with a great one, the highs and low wrapped up in a single race.
🏆 Rudy Rodriguez has had rough meet coming into Friday’s action, a few close calls here and there but in general his horses have mostly run subpar. So it had to be especially satisfying to not only break the skein but to do it in a stakes race with a horse coming off of a dull race at Parx. Rudy added blinkers to Wudda U Think Now, and the bay 5yo gelding by Fast Anna responded by finishing tenaciously in deep stretch to catch the front running Saint Selby. Saint Selby, who was making his stakes debut after having won two straight allowances, was the speed of the speed under Kendrick Carmouche and looked home free at the 1/8 pole before starting to visibly tire on the demanding surface. Wudda U Think Now was in chase mode from the starting gate under Trevor McCarthy, never gave up and started to cut into the leaders margin as the wire approached. Raggae Music Man was closing on the outside late as Wudda U Think Now got past Saint Selby, but McCarthy had just enough horse to hold him off and get Rudy back in the winners circle again. Favored NY Traffic was awful, never involved.
🍎 Tapple Cider got the job done, breaking her maiden in the 4th, a maiden claiming $40000 race for fillies on the grass, for Team Funny Cide.
🏆 Phil Serpe’s stellar Saratoga meet continued as he won the Union Ave for NYB fillies going 6f with Bank On Anna ridden by Jose Lezcano, who won three on the day. It was the 4th winner for the veteran trainer from only 14 starts.
🕯 Light a candle for Arlington Park on the first anniversary of the final true running of the Arlington Million.
🙁 Yibir has had a setback and will NOT be coming to compete in the Sword Dancer on the Travers undercard.
🏅 Bulldog Hanover went to the lead passing the half mile pole and cruised to an uncontested 1:48.1 score in the Dan Patch Pace last night at Hoosier Park.
Day 23 (17 racing days to go)
Saratoga Special Gr II $200,000 6.5f dirt 2yo
Super Chow - Lord Nelson colt showed high speed when breaking maiden at GP in early July. Also raced greenly that day, getting out on the turn and continued to race wide to the wire. Picks up Saez and ran super fast TG number but some of his points were self-induced gains from being wide. Needs to grow up in a hurry against these.
Damon’s Mound - homebred colt by freshman sire, Girvin, destroyed MSW field at Churchill on July 4th weekend card by 14, earning a 4 TG. Trainer Lovell ships up from summer base at Colonial and has been working lights out there. Only potential issue is that he broke slowly first time out and that mishap might give Gulfport an advantage that he can exploit. Do yourself a favor and check out his maiden win for yourself Here! (Race 3)
Valenzan Day - showed speed first time when breaking his maiden, since then has gotten further and further behind early. Adds blinkers and needs them to be a huge improvement to be close to the top two, something which I’m very skeptical about.
Gulfport - annihilated the field in the Bashfor Manor after crushing maidens under wraps first time out (TG of 5 & 3), both races at Churchill Downs. Asmussen and Rosario have been a deadly combo lately, clearly the one to beat in this fascinating edition of the Saratoga Special. Be interesting to see the tactics used by Rosario in here with Damon’s Mound drawn to his inside. By the way Gulfport’s breeding rights have already been purchased by Coolmore for price in the 8 million dollar range 💰
Owens Leap - needs a Jessie Owens type leap to get close to the top two in here.
Fourstardave Gr I $500,000 1 mile inner turf 4 and up
Casa Creed - tries the Fourstardave (Gr I) for the third year in a row, with two 3rd place finishes to show for it. Can handle the two turn mile configuration but is better at one turn as a closing sprinter as his late kick gets a bit muted with the slower pace. Seems like the outside three should allow for a decent pace today though NYRA grass races seem to have a way of morphing into pace-less affairs even with lots of speed signed on.
Front Run the Fed - ex-Brownie comes into this off of a win in the Van Clief (Listed) at Colonial Downs going 5.5f for Kentucky trainer Caramori. Irad flew in to ride him in that race, which was held on a Saratoga dark day, and retains the mount. Has talent but the dynamics of this race may play against his closing style. Is 1 for 2 at Saratoga and 6-1-1-2 at the mile distance.
Regal Glory - the six year old mare is the best horse in this race. Not only is she the fastest in the group on TG #’s (paired 0.5’s) but she is 3 for 3 over the Saratoga grass and sports a 12-7-3-0 record at a mile. Has tactical speed and can go to the lead but also can sit a trip and pounce on the leaders and finish off a race as good as any. Amazingly turf guru Brown has never won the Fourstardave, Regal Glory gives him his best chance to do so. She also gets a few pounds from the others as a mare which is simply gravy. The one to beat.
Masen - Brown number two in here, Kingman colt has done little wrong since arriving on these shores earlier this year. Exits a win in the slow paced Poker where he was under a hard hold throughout. Tactics there seem to suggest Prat will be looking for a target meaning that he may wind up stalking Get Smokin from the outside with Regal Glory covered up behind them. He isn’t quite as fast as Regal Glory and gives her four pounds which is close to a point on TG. Certainly can win but his keeping Get Smokin honest on the lead may be a big factor too.
Get Smokin - comes out of the Forbidden Apple which hasn’t been a productive race so far (3rd place finisher Public Sector bombed as the chalk in the Lure last weekend). Likely pacesetter could wind up being hounded by Masen or even Regal Glory depending how the deck shuffles going into and coming out of that first turn. 4-0-1-1 record at the Spa with 11-3-2-1 record at a mile is fair enough but not sure he is good enough to withstand any pace pressure and out-finish these. Castellano has become his regular rider despite rarely riding for Casse (4 starts in 2021-22) which doesn’t really have anything to do with this race but I thought it was interesting.
