Last Chance to Dance
Real Writing on Racing 💯
This last Derby prep Saturday (cmon the Lexington is like the NIT) really deserves its own moniker and “Super Saturday” is pretty lame. Coast to coast stakes action beyond the Kentucky Derby preps makes this a prime weekend whether you are wagering or just watching. We are going to take a look at all the Derby preps, the Bluegrass Stakes (Gr I) and Santa Anita Derby (Gr I) in our traditional horse by horse manner. However for the Wood Memorial (Gr II) we will be joined by Mike Mutnansky from The Mutstack for a back and forth conversation about the eclectic group of runners we have on offer in that longtime Aqueduct fixture.
Keeneland Open Day Review
Race 2 - First two year old race of the year felt like the majority of the two year old races run in the spring over the last few years. A dominant Wesley Ward winner with a bargain buy John Hancock trainee running second. Shoot it True, a Munnings filly trained by Ward with Tyler Gafflione aboard, made mincemeat out of the field made up of horses from mostly modest connections, covering the 4 1/2 furlongs in 52.04, 7 lengths clear at the wire.
Race 3 - Mo Stash, unseen since Kentucky Downs, made his seasons debut in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint, pressed the pace under Luis Saez, opened a couple in the lane and held sway to get through his nw2x allowance condition for trainer Vicky Oliver.
Race 6 - The Lafayette stakes was won in the first 100 yards when Luis Saez on Glengarry sent hard to seize the lead, putting everyone else behind him and capitalizing on the speed favoring nature of the dirt surface during the early part of the card. Trainer Doug Anderson had the son of Maximus Mischief primed off a brief freshening to score in his first start since running second in the Springboard Mile in December at Remington Park. Who Dey rallied up the rail to run a good second while recent maiden breaker at TP, Frosty Indulgence overcame a slow start to be third and get stakes placed in his first try against winners. Slight fav Booth just chased and never made any impact while close second choice Doncho stalked the rapid pace set by the winner but couldn’t muster a rally in the lane and wilted.
Race 8 - Transylvania Stakes (Gr III) - Under a heady ride by Reylu Gutierrez, Neat got up in the final strides to nail Cugino on the wire to win his second consecutive stakes race. The son of Constitution, who won the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston Park last out, is trained by Rob Atras and now has four wins on the grass in 5 starts over the surface and all of the wins came at different tracks. Cugino, who was stuck out in post 12, got a brutal trip being at least 4 wide on the first turn and making an early move to press leader Musical Act (Ire), going down the backside. Lagynos, returning to the turf for the first time since breaking his maiden in his debut at Kentucky Downs, rallied strongly to be third at a huge price.
Race 9 - Ashland Stakes (Gr I) - Leslie’s Rose rebounded from a disappointing 3rd at 2-5 in the Davona Dale (Gr II) at GP last month, to pounce on the early leaders turning for home and draw off to an emphatic three length victory at 9-1 and earn her way into the Kentucky Oaks. The Into Mischief filly was out footed to the first turn by Halina’s Forte forcing Irad Ortiz to settle into the same pocket position on the rail behind the leaders that she’d been in when unable to muster up a rally in Hallandale. This time the Pletcher trainee was able to gather momentum and spring past the tiring Halina’s Forte and Impel, who’d applied pace pressure and vault to the lead. Last years 2yo filly champion, Just FYI, ran well in defeat, losing more ground than the winner, in her first appearance since her Breeders Cup Juvenile filly score back in November. Impel held on to be third over a tough trip Candied, who inexplicably was bet down to favoritism despite a track surface that wasn’t playing in her deep closing favor and not having had a race since November.
💰 Initial reports from Keeneland’s Jim Goodman on X indicated that with the new 15% takeout, Daily Double play was up 27.5% from last year’s opening day from $868,387 to $1,107,375. It’s only one day but a positive trend showing players will gravitate to lower take wagers.
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🆓 DRF formulator PP’s for The Bluegrass Stakes here.
🎪 The guys at the Saratoga Special have got these final preps covered like a rug like they always do.
Wood Memorial (Gr II) $750,000 3yo 1 1/8 (100 KYD pts)
A special confab with Mike Mutnansky of Mutstack. Mut, a Boston area sports radio personality who you may have seen on Pennsylvania Derby Day, handicapping and doing interviews for Parx, is the driving force behind the MutStack brand which is a New England sports centric Substack with a soft spot for wagering on horse racing. Check out Mutcapping for Mike’s weekly plays. Our conversation follows:
Mut: Ten years ago, Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial. I liked Wicked Strong. Regrettably, that was probably my last winner in this race.
Saturday's Wood Memorial is long on entries and at least on paper, short on top-end talent.
Thankfully, we have a top-end writing talent to help us work through this race.
Chuck Simon is a former trainer, now turned racing media star. He writes candidly about the sport at Going in Circles Digest. He’s also part of the launch of Racing Hub. And has a weekly podcast with former Central Catholic basketball star Barry Spears. We're going to go through the Wood Memorial field and try to find a winner. Maybe a price or two.
Okay, is the Derby winner in this field, Chuck?
Chuck: I am skeptical that the Derby winner is in this group, unless we are talking Ohio Derby.
Mut: Got it. Let's look at the field
1. Resilience (6-1)
Mut: I'll say it - not impossible here. The fourth in the Risen Star doesn't look terrible when you consider who the top three finishers were. Can't imagine they want to go, so will likely save ground from the inside and try and be alive at the top of the stretch. Five works since the Fair Grounds effort. Again, not impossible.
Chuck: A little slow to develop but has a nice foundation and did well overcoming an outside post in the Risen Star to be a decent 4th. Like the inside draw, should get a nice trip and if he can improve with the added experience, might be a live contender at a solid price for top connections.
2. El Grande O (8-1)
Mut: I have a soft spot for this hard trier. Start number 12, Chuck! Will go to the lead but with other speed signed on, hard to endorse. The eventual cutback will be worth a play.
Chuck: Every year Linda Rice has a speedy but distance challenged NY bred that looks like they are gonna win one of these 3yo stakes but ultimately falters in the stretch. Last year it was Artic Arrogance, this year it’s El Grande O. Current favorite at the Going in Circles NY Derby at Finger Lakers future book but it’s fadesville in the Wood for me.
That's a great race to sponsor.
3. Lonesome Boy (50-1)
Mut: I enjoyed my time at Parx this fall. That's all I really have on his Philadelphia shipper.
Chuck: As far as I can tell, Lonesome Boy is the best son that the obscure Washington based sire Nationhood has ever produced.
4. Deterministic (7/5)
Mut: This just feels so anti-Clement I'm not sure what to think here. First try going two turns after beating a 'mid' group in the Gotham. I'm sure there is talent there but at 7/5, I'm going to be against on-top.
Chuck: No doubt this colt is talented but there was briefly talk that Clement would “train up” to the Kentucky Derby off of the win in the Gotham and my old school sensibilities meter was triggered directly off the charts! So far in his ‘two races separated by 7 months and a surgery’ career, he has proven that he can be a solid closing sprinter and can handle an off track. This isn’t exactly an all-star ensemble lined up against him but his dam was a turf sprinter, his sire isn’t exactly a strong stamina influence and there is a possibility that his late kick is a bit muted in a slower paced, two turn race. Plus he’s chalk and we are not fans of chalk.
5. Protective (30-1)
Mut: Showed some promise on debut - that was last July. Off eight months, had a very interesting trip last time at Tampa. Was the big favorite (3/5) for Pletcher/Reople. In tight and checked, lost to another Pletcher/Reople, that one 5-1.... Actually galloped out well past the winner. That's a lot of words to say this is a very tall task.
Chuck: I shall be protective of my bankroll by moving on quickly…
6. Evening News (20-1)
Mut: I am a crazy person for mentioning this, but his only dirt race came on a day when speed dominated the four dirt races at Ellis Park. Based on the synth races, I guess he's going to try and beat El Grande O to the front?
Chuck: If the connections felt the need to race on Wood Memorial Day, they should have entered in the previous race, the Bay Shore going 7f. As for the race they did chose, no clue what they are planning on doing though getting hot and dirty is most likely.
7. Merit (20-1)
Mut: Another who might be involved early? Like many in this Wood Memorial, speed figures say no real chance in this spot.
Chuck: Last year this trainer entered a horse in the Wood that appeared to have no chance, Lord Miles, and he won it at 10000000-1. I’m guessing that lightning won’t strike twice
8. Elysian Meadows (15-1)
Mut: Woefully slow on Beyer. First try at two turns and the best thing I can say is the horse didn't quit. Figures to make one run and try and get a piece?
Chuck: A bomb that I will play underneath in exotics. Beyers are slow, other figures have him a touch faster and I like his pedigree stretching out and the switch back to Lezcano. In Mott we trust?
Great point about Mott even running here.
9. Tuscan Sky (4-1)
Mut: Another in this crop of three-year-olds crop that might have talent but is armed with no real experience. Got a good Beyer and strong TFUS figure in beating Nash last time. Will get a fast track for the first time. Obvious talent and is a win candidate, at what feels like a much shorter price than the 4-1 ML.
Chuck: I loved his debut where he raced greenly before powering away. Was more professional in the virtual match race with Nash, who returned to cruise in an Oaklawn stakes. Still a tough ask for a horse whose experience is a 6f maiden in the mud and a 3 horse race and as you said, you aren’t likely to get much of a price. He is a serious horse IMO but he may be better off in the long run missing the grind of the Derby
10. Gettysburg Address (30-1)
Mut: Blinkers back on. Longshot trainer. Still not seeing it, even with the company kept and slow start in the Smarty Jones.
Chuck: He is on the confederate side in this battle and we all know who won that war
11. Society Man (30-1)
Mut: Of the impossible horses on paper, this is my favorite. Troubled starts in back-to-back races, including a start in the Withers as a maiden. Then last time with Lasix, wins for fun at a mile on a wet track. Now no Lasix and back to a mile and an eighth. What a wild ride. Kind of rooting for him but no chance, right?
Chuck: Trainer Gargan’s “other Good Magic” with his big horse by that stallion, Dornuch running in the Bluegrass today. His last was good but one turn, not two, might be his game.
12. Deposition (50-1)
Mut: No shot. But since I have an expert here, when you enter a horse in a big race like this, are the owners guaranteed good seats? A nice luxury box? Buffett? Is that why some horses get entered in these races? This is not reflective of Uriah St. Lewis - who has upset some big races on the NY circuit. But in general...if I enter a horse in a big spot do the owners get the red carpet treatment?
Chuck: I will wait till Uriah moves this one to the weeds before I take my chance with him. As to your question, outside of the Kentucky Derby (everybody pays at Churchill Downs) yes you will generally get accommodations of some sort. I actually entered a filly on the Preakness undercard in a grass stakes with zero intention on running as her owner wanted to go to the race and figured out that the entry fees were cheaper than buying a table in the turf club that day. The funny thing is that it was when ESPN was still doing coverage and Randy Moss called that morning to ask about her status because he was going to make her the Budweiser longshot for that race. I told him “well I have bad news…I’m looking at her in her stall right now and we are in Louisville not Baltimore…”
In this case I don’t know if good seats exist at the Big A anymore and I can guarantee no luxury boxes, but they might get a handful of free drink tickets to use in the casino
This is why you're a media star.
13. Uncle Heavy (8-1)
Mut: Nice PA bred. Brutal post. Posted eighth of nine in back-to-back starts so maybe not a complete disaster. Butch Reid a trainer who has earned my respect and money over the years. Think he'll be coming at the end for sure. But that post, Chuck…
Chuck: I was dead wrong about him last time, Butch Reid is a very good trainer and when he ships, you best pay attention. The post is an issue though and I’m not thrilled with the layoff to be frank. I regularly rant about this during Derby trail season but one of my biggest pet peeves is that trainers don’t prep their horses hard enough. These days the trend is to do less with horses in general but the Kentucky Derby is such an outlier as a 20 horse, mile and a quarter race, it just feels like if you aren’t dead fit, you are at a disadvantage. It’s difficult to get that extreme fitness without racing. As for this race, jockey Sanchez has his work cut out for him trying to carve out a trip that doesn’t include excessive ground loss. A few scratches wouldn’t hurt and if he can manage to get him in striking position, the colt does have a pretty strong closing kick.
Mut: Okay, I know you don't tab winners and picks when you handicap these races at Going in Circles, but just between us, how might you go about betting this one given the odds we have now and no scratches...
Chuck: I don’t love anyone here though I do believe the favorites are somewhat vulnerable which usually presents wagering opportunities. If he is the right price (right around his morning line or higher) I’d probably take a stab at betting Resilience to win and trying to hook him up in exotics with the logicals plus Elysium Meadows underneath. Appreciate the banter Mut! Hopefully we didn’t lead everyone to the poorhouse and we can do this again!
Bluegrass (Gr I) $1,000,000 3yo 1 1/8 (100 KYD pts)
Top Conor - Expensive Twirling Candy colt ran professionally in his winning debut at GP going a mile out of the chute. Broke alertly from post 1, eased back to rate behind quick early fractions, moved up in the two path on the turn to get into position and wore down the embattled leader to open up a couple lengths late, earning a nice debut TG of 7.75. Stretching out to 9 furlongs against a few of the division leaders in start number two is a lot to ask but drawing the rail should allow Ortiz to save some ground on the first turn and he has shown the ability to take kickback and run through it, not all of these young horses will do that. He has to run better to get in the mix here
Be You - there have been a lot of Curlin’s that have thrived in one turn races, this colt among them, running a lifetime best 6 TG when beating maidens at GP in start number 6 going 7 furlongs. His pair of two turn races last Fall were relatively dull so unless he is just a drastically better horse now makes me leery to think that more improvement is forthcoming.
Seize the Grey - Lukas looks to add another Derby starter to his holster as his Just Steel (and Ben Marks!) earned their way in last weekend when running second in the Arkansas Derby. Freshened after a 5 race two year old campaign, his return in an OP allowance was a good effort which he repeated in the Jeff Ruby (Gr III) on the synthetic when 3rd two weeks ago. He isn’t really fast on the TG scale but this isn’t a field with too many really fast runners and at the very least you know that fitness won’t be the issue. Not enthralled with his chances but Wayne has pulled some rabbits out of his hat over the years.
Dornoch - progressed nicely last year culminating with a gutsy win in the Remsen (Gr II) when the Good Magic colt fought back after being passed mid-stretch by Sierra Leone. He does also have a win over the track as well, an allowance score at Keeneland prior to the Remsen win. His Fountain of Youth (Gr II) win in his 3yo debut was accomplished in workman-like fashion though there are circumstances that played a factor. Trainer Gargan admittedly hadn’t turned the screws tight in training on the 1/2 brother to last years Derby winner Mage leading into that race. Also a flurry of late scratches changed the race complexion, leaving Dornoch as the lone speed which was counter to the plan of chasing a target which was likely to be Victory Avenue, Merit or Speak Easy, all whom didn’t end up running. The result was a decent effort where he never looked in danger but didn’t exactly put away a tepid group of rivals until he changed leads late, a lingering issue. That race looks even more suspect in the light of the entire field running back and making zero impact in their next races. Will he be more focused chasing a target and will that and his increased fitness level be enough to put in a big performance and head to the Derby as one of the choices? That’s why we run the races.
Good Money - Calumet farm doesn’t mind running a long shot and that what they have here with this Good Magic colt. Not sure to make of the Tampa Bay Derby effort as the field spent 30+ minutes in the paddock, the pace was glacial and he hung in there late though I suspect that the three that beat him are all on the lower end of graded stakes quality. Wouldn’t be shocked if Brown instructs Castellano to shoot to the lead and see what happens from there as at the very least his setting a decent pace would serve his other two entries well.
Just a Touch - among the fastest of this crop, he has paired TG 2.5 in two one turn race starts at FG and last out in the Gotham (Gr III) at Aqueduct. Both those races were contested over sloppy, sealed surfaces and rewatching the Gotham (Gr III) and looking at his dam side pedigree, I’m left wondering if he really wants nine furlongs? He is a fast horse which puts him in the minority of this three year old crop so he has to be considered at contender here and I’m thinking that he may wind up on the lead since Dornoch’s connections seem committed to not being in front? It would give him his best chance of winning.
Lat Long - longtime maiden finally broke through at OP in December before putting in a good effort to be 3rd behind Track Phantom and Nash in the Lecomte (Gr III) at FG. Liam’s Map colt earned a 6 TG for that effort on Jan 20 but has not been seen since. If he can avoid losing ground on both turns, he could sneak onto the board at a long price with some natural progression.
Epic Ride - passed on the Jeff Ruby (Gr III) to try dirt which only makes sense in the context of the Kentucky Derby is next month and people in the Commonwealth get a bit delirious around this time. Really had no excuse other than second best in the Battaglia behind Encino and while he has worked well over the dirt at his home base at TTC, the jury is out on whether he is good enough to compete at this level.
Mugatu - I saw that his connections had paid $6000 to make him a late triple crown nominee and I have no idea why considering that’s roughly 50% of his current years earnings ($12,771) in four starts.
Sierra Leone - the future book pool favorite for the 150th Kentucky Derby likely has a sufficient number of points to ensure himself a slot in this gate a month from now. He has shown that he is a good horse in both stakes starts, rallying from far back to get up in time in the Risen Star (Gr II) after getting out-bobbed by Dornoch in the Remsen (Gr II). That late closing style is a tricky one, especially in large fields where you need help with a sufficient early pace and a little good fortune in getting through or around traffic in order to be in position to make that late run. This Gun Runner colt has also made both of his stakes appearances on off tracks which he clearly handles but does give one pause as to how he will perform on a dry surface, especially the Keeneland dirt which isn’t exactly a closers paradise. The other factor that you won’t hear any TV talking heads mention is that he hasn’t exactly been running huge speed figures, though this is a pretty slow crop for the most part (outside of the Fierceness A game). His 5.5 TG winning the Risen Star (Gr II) is much slower than the TG 2.25 Brown trainee with similar style, Zandon got when running 3rd in same race in 2022. Yes it’s true he isn’t running against the 2022 crop and he may very well win this race and go on and capture the Derby but you will be taking pretty terrible value betting on that as he has to be better than he has been and at a short price, no thank you.
Encino - not your typical Brad Cox entrant into a Derby prep as this son of Nyquist spent the winter in Florence duking it out over the Tapeta at Turfway, where he has made all three lifetime starts. Just ran right by favored Epic Ride in the Battaglia in his latest but not sure how to even measure that performance against the top horses here. His TG figs are light, even Rich Strike had run a tick faster in his Battaglia when 3rd in 2021, the post is likely going to require new rider Prat to try to rally from the back of the pack and while he should handle the surface switch and distance, it’s difficult to feel strongly about his ability to navigate the rise in class.
Santa Anita Derby (Gr I) $750,000 3yo 1 1/8 (100 KYD pts)
Curlin’s Kaos - When people try to explain why these Derby preps should remain grade 1 races (they shouldn’t), tell them that the entry of horses with this sort of resume should be enough to trigger an immediate downgrade. Gelding looks to be a decent Cal-bred that can make some noise on the grass at the state bred level but doesn’t belong here.
Tapalo - NY bred by Tapiture is on the wrong coast, the Mike Lee Stakes beckons! Ran decent second to Endlessly (returned to win the Jeff Ruby at TP) in the final running of the El Camino Real at GG on the Tapeta and does possess good early foot but hasn’t broken the 9 mark on the TG scale, which isn’t encouraging in this spot.
Stronghold - if we are going to see a non-Baffert winner of the Santa Anita Derby, this is the most likely candidate. Been 1st or 2nd in all five starts, the only race where the Ghostzapper colt didn’t threaten in was the Bob Hope (Gr III) where he was a distant runner up to the dynamic but sidelined Nysos. Has good tactical ability which should give jock Fresu the ability to find good position heading into the first turn. D’Amato trainee isn’t super fast but he has the figures to compete here and has slowly improved to the point where you’d believe a jump forward is possible. Didn’t beat a whole lot at Sunland last out and I’m skeptical that the 9 furlongs is ideal being out of a Jimmy Creed mare, Spectator, who was a sprinter but did run second in the Santa Anita Oaks going 1 1/16. This is a very weak version of the Santa Anita Derby but this guy has to be considered one of the top two in here.
Imagination - the table has been set for the son of Into Mischief to beat up on this bunch and though he won’t be advancing to Louisville, this is still a nice race to win. He is a gritty competitor, unlike the typical flashy speed merchants that emanate from the Baffert barn, but has done nothing but slowly improve and looms the horse to beat here for Frankie D. Assume he will track Stronghold and try to out kick him in the lane. This isn’t a particularly clever analysis determining that the race likely boils down to the two favs, both coming off of stakes wins….but there aren’t many viable options to consider.
Wynstock - NY bred by Solomini was game when holding off Stronghold to win the Los Al Futurity back in December but go drop kicked in his next start in the Southwest (Gr III) at OP, beaten 28 after chasing the pace through the mud. That Los Al race was the Baffert trainees only stakes quality TG and honestly it’s difficult to know what to expect here, as there seems to be enough speed to keep him from the front end and he hasn’t shown much of a propensity to close ground or pass horses either.
Tessuto - Munnings rig broke maiden last out, first time around two turns after a couple decent sprint efforts. Ordinarily you’d toss a horse with this sort of resume in the SA Derby but given its lack of quality, you’d have to give him a second look. Not sure what sort of trip Rispoli will be looking for but the potential to be wide does exist and honestly that second look doesn’t really create much enthusiasm for his chances in this spot.
Mc Vay - Skinner’s trainer tries a maiden this year and as soft as this group is, he is in with a fighting chance to be on the board. The Constitution colt doesn’t have great early speed and honestly he doesn’t really have much closing punch either. Assume that Berrios will linger at the back of the pack and try to pick up some of the pieces.
E J Won the Cup - EJ may have won the cup at Turf Paradise but he probably isn’t going to win the Santa Anita Derby as the road to Louisville doesn’t go through Phoenix.