Going in Circles KY Derby 147 Rankings

Real Writing on Racing 💯

The Going in Circles Digest official Kentucky Derby 147 Rankings

So we are going to wade into the shark infested waters of Kentucky Derby rankings, subjecting ourselves to potential scorn, derision and mockery. These aren’t based on odds, best value or anything other than who we think has the best chance of winning before we know the actual field and the starting gate post positions. Each horse will have a little blurb and while I’m sure that there will be many that disagree with the rankings and comments, well difference of opinion is what horse racing is foundationally based upon. Here is the list, feel free to comment below!

1. Known Agenda - One of the themes that I have harped upon for the last 6 months regarding this group of three year olds is so many of them are lacking in two turn race experience. Not so Known Agenda. He has five races around two turns including four at 1 1/8 with three wins at the distance, most notably last out in the Florida Derby. His pedigree being by Curlin out of a good race mare named Byrama (grade 1 winner at 1 1/8) suggests that the 1 1/4 should be within his scope. His last two speed figures since trainer Pletcher added blinkers have been very good but he does not seem to have peaked yet. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been on fire seemingly all year with last weekend’s Apple Blossom ride on Letruska the latest masterpiece in his collection. His running style should benefit from the field having a lot of lightly raced speed types as he should be in the second flight, though an inside draw might make getting that trip a little rougher. One draw back is that occasionally he simply doesn’t show up like in the Sam Davis where he was very sluggish early, losing all chance before rallying mildly but for now Known Agenda tops our list.
   

2. Essential Quality - He is an undefeated 2 year old champion, his trainer won the Eclipse award last year, his jockey is one of the top two or three in the sport, he has the fastest speed figures, he has four two turn races and has a win at 1 1/8. Seems like a no brainer to be the top selection right? Yet there is this nagging, persistent warning signal that keeps going off in my mind about him. I wasn’t thrilled with his last race to be honest, I think Highly Motivated cost himself the race with the late lead change that seemed cause him to lose his momentum more than Essential Quality won it. That being said it’s hard to rank anyone else higher than him as a likely winner as he does have an adaptable style, is fast enough and his pedigree isn’t really a big knock either. Not exactly a ringing endorsement but this is a field full of question marks and he has the least by far.
   

3. Medina Spirit - Seemed like he was always the “other” Baffert behind higher profile and more expensive stablemates like Life is Good and Concert Tour yet now remains his only hope. Mr Baffert, who has morphed from media darling to divisive figure in racing circles with his numerous recent drug positives of high profile runners, has not really said a whole lot about this obscurely bred son of Proctoino. Medina Spirit doesn’t fit the usual Baffert profile of an extremely well bred, high dollar purchase as he was a $35000 OBS Summer purchase after having been a $1000 yearling. He has been far more steady than spectacular but he does have a lot of similarities to a Baffert Derby winner back when Bob was a lot more popular fellow, a horse named Silver Charm. Silver Charm was also a Florida bred by lower tier stallion that finished second in both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby like Medina Spirit has done. Medina Spirit has had four two turn races and they were all in 2021 making him the only Derby starter this year to have four races as a three year old. He does have some tactical speed and might be able to get into a good stalking position if the fast pace materializes. His pedigree is hard to read as far as 1 1/4 ability which is probably the biggest knock against him. (Full disclosure and humblebrag I hold a nice futures ticket on him at 38-1)

4. Hot Rod Charlie - Has been flying under the radar since his Louisiana Derby score outside of being scorned by his jockey that day, Joel Rosario who seemed to have chosen a horse who isn’t even in the field over him. He is an interesting horse from the perspective of having shown high speed in wining his last race on the lead yet has closed a lot of ground in races as well, like when he was a close second to Essential Quality in the Breeders Cup Juvenile after having been 8 lengths off the pace in 7th early on. He has plenty of experience around two turns, his last five races have been routes. Prat gets the call and like a lot of the field, where he draws will dictate his tactics. His pedigree is a mixed bag as his sire Oxbow won the Preakness but hasn’t had much success as a stallion at any distance and his dam, Indian Miss by Indian Charlie has thrown champion sprinter Mitole. He has run good speed figures but has not made the leap to a new level meaning that he might still have some improvement left to come.
   

5. Rock Your World - Ran the Santa Anita Derby field including Medina’s Spirit off their feet, going wire to wire, setting a solid pace yet still having enough left to turn away all challenges in the stretch. He galloped out strong enough that it was notable which is a rarity for a Kentucky Derby prep. That was his first race on the dirt though his pedigree suggested that it wouldn’t be an issue being by Candy Ride out of the excellent Empire Maker mare, stakes winning Charm the Maker, who was grade 1 placed on that surface. Trainer Sadler has stated that his intent in starting him on the grass and avoiding the tougher dirt races was to let him develop and so far the plan has worked to perfection though that same plan also has left some question marks that Rock Your World may need to answer. Chief among those questions is does he need the lead or at the very least a clear path in front of him since he hasn’t yet been behind a horse in his brief career? The Kentucky Derby is a tough place to find out that he doesn’t appreciate dirt in his face in the case of him drawing inside and not being able to clear right away. I’m very much in the camp that these light pre-Derby campaigns make it more difficult on horses from both an experience and fitness angle but this colt is talented and to be honest, the remainder of the field from this point down has many questions as well. The big news concerning Rock Your World lately has been the jockey switch from Umberto Rispoli to Joel Rosario which is probably not much of a factor as both are world class riders and jockeys tend to be a very overrated factor in the Derby (Rosario is 1 for 9 in the Kentucky Derby).
   

6. Mandaloun - This is where the field really drops off and you start dealing with even greater unknowns like what the hell happened to this Into Mischief colt last out in the Louisiana Derby? Mandaloun advanced quickly through his maiden and allowance condition last fall, looking like a potential serious contender for trainer Cox going into the grade 3 Lecomte stakes at the Fair Grounds. He was sent off as the favorite at 4/5 that day and suffered through a wide trip on both turns and had to settle for third though only beaten by a length. He earned a solid speed figure for that race and was again sent off favorite in the next leg of the Louisiana Derby trail, the grade 2 Risen Star, though at a more reasonable price of 2/1. Cox added blinkers and was rewarded with with Mandaloun finishing strong to capture the 1 1/8 race in a visually impressive performance which seemed to give the barn two really live Derby contenders along with Essential Quality. Then came the Louisiana Derby. Sent off again as favorite, this time 7/5, the grade 2 race was supposed to be his final launching pad to Louisville with the California invader, Hot Rod Charlie the only new face to contend with. In a ghastly non-effort, the big colt got decent position though a little wide coming out of the first turn, settling down the backside in 4th behind a decent pace upfront. Going into the final turn, jockey Geroux asked Mandaloun to pick it up and make a run at the leaders and for about 100 yards he seemed like he was ready to pounce. About midway around the turn just passing the 3/8ths pole, Geroux got a lot busier on the colt and he didn’t seem to be responding as he had in all his other races. Straightening out into the long homestretch, Mandaloun had nothing and when he sensed the colt was beaten, Geroux didn’t persevere and they crossed the wire 11 lengths behind the winner in the 2021 Derby trails most puzzling performance. His pedigree doesn’t scream 1 1/4 (his dosage is 11.00!!) but he does get stamina from his Empire Maker dam, Brooch who captured a 1 1/8 group 3 stakes in Ireland. He has dazzled in recent works, seemingly becoming this years “wise guy” horse and while I’m not a big karma guy the fact that he will carry the famous colors the late Khalid Abdullah of Juddemonte Farm isn’t lost on me either.
   

7. Dynamic One - You want a long shot that is absolutely flying under the radar yet has a lot of positives and looks to be improving at just the right time? Meet Dynamic One, a colt by Union Rags who has some of the highest of high profile human connections in racing, being owned by the odd triumvirate of the Repole stable, St Elias stable and Phipps stable and trained by 7 time Eclipse Award winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Bred by Phipps in Kentucky, the chestnut colt is out of a dam who couldn’t run at all but she in turn is out of the champion mare Storm Flag Flying who is out of grade 1 winner and producer My Flag so pedigree is not even the slightest bit of a question mark. Dynamic One made it to the races in mid-November at Aqueduct, finishing 9th by 16 lengths as the 5/2 favorite in that 7 furlong event but was greatly compromised by hitting the gate at the start, losing all chance. Pletcher shipped south and added blinkers for his next start a maiden race going 1 1/16th at Gulfstream Park where he just missed to eventual Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth winner, Greatest Honour. Compromised by post 11 in his subsequent start also at Gulfstream, he launched a strong rally while very wide, flattening out late from the effort though when finishing 4th beaten 2 lengths. Shipped back north six weeks later, he dusted a field of maidens by 5 lengths at Aqueduct, going 1 1/8 on a very slow surface, but improving his speed figure to just a cut below the leaders of the division which encouraged the connections to take a shot in what looked to be a wide open race in the Wood Memorial. His runner up finish in that race was probably better than it looked on paper as he was wide in the first turn, continued on in the 4 path on the second turn and made a strong move to the lead by mid-stretch. He looked to be a winner before being collared close to the wire by barnmate Bourbonic who made up a lot of ground but also saved ground for the most part of both turns. He has the pedigree to get the distance, he is improving at the right time, his speed figures put him in the hunt, he has had four two turn races including two at 1 1/8 and should have plenty of pace to run into. Yes he has given up the lead late in a few of his races but this Derby is full of flawed contenders and if he puts it all together on May 1, he doesn’t have to make much of a jump to get the money.
   

8. Highly Motivated - He hasn’t done a whole lot wrong in his five race career with his record sitting at two wins, two seconds and a third place finish. Yet I’m still quite doubtful about his chances in the 2021 Kentucky Derby based on two fatal flaws. The first is his pedigree for 1 1/4 especially on his female side. His sire Into Mischief has been a wild success and he did sire last years Derby winner, Authentic but his progeny haven’t had nearly as much success going longer routes than they have at middle and sprint distances. I have some Into Mischief colts rated higher on this list and mainly it’s because of my worry about the lack of stamina from Highly Motivated’s dam, Strong Incentive. A stakes winning filly by Warriors Reward, she was at her best going 7 furlongs as her only stakes win was at that distance in the listed Jammed Lovely over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. The second worry is the lack of two turn experience and light 3 year old schedule with only 17 furlongs raced over the last five and a half months. He ran well in the Bluegrass when put on the lead for the first time because of the shocking lack of speed in that race, and actually looked like he was doing to fend off Essential Quality till he switched back to his left lead in deep stretch, costing him critical momentum at that late stage of the 1 1/8 race. Horses change leads late in the stretch for a couple of potential reasons including a physical issue which is unlikely in this case. Another reason could be greenness or being distracted which is possible as this was his first two turn race but he had experience over the Keeneland surface, winning a stakes on the Breeders Cup undercard last fall. The third and most likely reason to change leads late in the stretch is fatigue. My pessimism towards Highly Motivated is if he couldn’t make the entire 1 1/8 despite setting a relatively soft pace for the class level of a Kentucky Derby prep, I’m really skeptical that he will be ready to make it 1 1/4 under tougher conditions where ground loss is almost assured. He has a lot of the required qualifications to win but I simply believe that he will struggle to get the distance.
   

9. Super Stock - The upset winner of the Arkansas Derby is a late addition to the Derby trail after shuffling along on the edge of relevance till his breakthrough win in Hot Springs earned him 100 points and a place in the starting gate on May 1st. The Dialed In colt from the Asmussen barn has plenty of experience having made eight prior starts which is tops in the field. His maiden win came last summer at Lone Star Park in the Texas TB Futurity where he wired the field under Steve’s son Keith for ownership including his grandfather Keith, the elder Asmussen. Returning to the Kentucky circuit, he ran third in the grade 3 Iroquois stakes then third again in the grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland though both placings could be labeled as non-threatening 3rds. He was keeping good company in those races and entered the gate for the listed Street Sense listed stakes at Churchill Downs as the 4/5 favorite. Fringe Derby player King Fury got past him that day with Super Stock checking in 2nd by a short half length. His return to the races as a three year old was as a 40-1 bomb in Rebel at Oaklawn finishing a well beaten 4th behind Concert Tour. He got a perfect trip in the Arkansas Derby, sitting in the pocket along the inside from post position one behind a fast pace set by Caddo River who was engaged in a duel with Concert Tour. When those two began to weaken mid-stretch, jockey Ricardo Santana guided him around the tiring leaders to an easy 2 1/2 length score. Super Stock ran his best speed figure in that victory and it put him in mix if he can improve just a touch more in the Derby. His pedigree is questionable for 1 1/4 though Dialed In did win the Florida Derby his progeny seem better suited at 1 1/16 and his dam, Super Girlie is also not exactly bred to be a super stamina influence.
   

10. Midnight Bourbon - He is another horse from the Asmussen armada who has really hasn’t done anything wrong in his entire seven race career, never having failed to hit the board in all those starts. Midnight Bourbon has made slow but steady progress, has some tactical speed and has a pedigree that suggests the 1 1/4 is within his scope. So why is he barely cracking the top ten in the rankings? He simply doesn’t finish up his races strong enough for a horse that doesn’t possess high speed, his grinding style doesn’t seem suited for this particular race where a solid pace seems likely.
    

11. Bourbonic - We have now entered the bourbon section of the rankings where it’s suggested that you may want to drink a slug before wagering on any of these contenders. This colt is a Calumet farm home bred out of a grade 2 winning mare Dancing Afleet who won the Delaware Oaks at 1 1/16 as a three year old. His sire Bernadini is one of the strongest stamina influences that we have at stud so the distance is probably not going to be an issue. What will is his ability level and style which are still in question after his sweeping, last to first run to upset the Wood Memorial at 70-1 in his only stakes appearance. That race fell apart more than any other Derby prep this year and was contested over a very deep surface unlike what he will running over at Churchill. Even with a very fast pace and a clean trip, it’s still going to be difficult for him to pass 19 others as he just doesn’t seem to be good enough.
    

12. O Besos - The hometown horse trained by longtime Churchill trainer Greg Foley, he is another that doesn’t look like he is quite at the talent level needed to win the Kentucky Derby. His only race of note was last out in the Louisiana Derby when he put in a nice late run to be third up the inside, just missing second by a head. He is by a Derby winner, the recently exported Orb but is another with a female family that might be more aligned to shorter distances. His style and improving nature might get him into the superfecta if there is a meltdown pace battle, he gets a clean trip and a little racing luck but that’s a lot to ask to be fourth let alone win.
    

13. Helium - I don’t like his chances of winning but I’m running out of horses that can. His Tampa Bay Derby was an impressive performance with it being his seasons debut, first time around two turns and also initial race on dirt. The horse he fought off to win, Hidden Stash came back in the Bluegrass and got beat 10 lengths finishing 4th which didn’t exactly flatter Helium. He needed three weeks post race to get back on the worktab and it’s difficult to imagine that he will have the fitness level required to win the Derby off of one 1 1/16 race in 6 months, let alone answer the question of is he good enough anyway?
    

14. King Fury - A super late to the Derby trail prospect, he scored nicely off the layoff in the slop at Keeneland to earn enough points to likely sneak into this eclectic field. His best attribute is he is by Curlin and his pedigree suggests the 1 1/4 will not be an issue. What might be an issue is only one race in five months as a prep schedule, the relatively quick turnaround off that race which was by far his lifetime best speed figure and how much of all that was aided by the sloppy surface? He also never seems to put together two good races in a row and his last one was his best so guess what might be next…

15. Hidden Stash - He took the Tampa Bay route to the Derby this year and like most years it appears that path isn’t going to be very fruitful in terms of Derby performance. Has had trouble with his lead changes, isn’t particularly fast and got trounced the only time he tried the leaders of the division.
    

16. Soup and Sandwich - You are probably saying you picked the horse who he finished second to last out as the most likely Derby winner and this guy is below Hidden Stash? Yes that is correct because I don’t see any path to victory for this son of Into Mischief and it’s not due to his pedigree which seems sufficient or his speed figure last out which was very good. I simply can’t see a horse as green as this one, with his two prior races to the Florida Derby being a state bred six and a half furlong maiden win and a three horse allowance race at Tampa, having nearly enough foundation or experience to deal with the obstacles thrown at the Kentucky Derby runners. I understand why they are taking a shot, we haven’t exactly listed a murders row of contenders above but with Caddo River now back in the picture the pace scenario gets a lot saltier and I don’t see Soup and Sandwich as a sit and pounce candidate against 19 other rivals at this stage of his career.
    

17. Like the King - Rare are the Beltarra Park turf maiden winners that wind up running in the Kentucky Derby but here we are. Won the Jeff Ruby which is now a 100 point Derby prep race which seems ludicrous but Churchill is gonna Churchill. Has a lot of racing experience which is a plus, most is on a surface other than dirt which isn’t. His two dirt races resulted in a defeat at Belterra first time out and retreating, distant third in the mud in an allowance at Keeneland. The final nail in the coffin of his chances is he probably wasn’t even best in the Ruby.

18. Sainthood - Was probably best in that synthetic imposter of a 100 point race at Turfway. Not much to recommend though he does have a two turn dirt victory to his credit, he really doesn’t have a whole lot of other Derby winning credentials other than he seems used to less than ideal trips.
    

19. Caddo River - He still isn’t a definite runner but his biggest impact if he does run is his influence on the pace as he showed in the Rebel, rating isn’t his thing. Either way he yet to show he is good enough anyway and I’m surprised they have reconsidered after initially signaling a pass on the Derby. Truth is I hope he does run as it shakes things up a little more, chaos often leads to better prices!
    

20. Everyone Else - There are a lot of horses that really have no business even considering running in the Derby….considering running in the Derby. I’m talking to you Hosier and Dream Shake and Get Her Number. Well to be fair the horses themselves would likely pass, seems like some of their humans might have Derby fever or at the very least, access to good seats in a limited seat Kentucky Derby world fever.
    
    ➡️COMMENTS ARE WELCOME! (especially if you don’t agree with me, hell I’m not sure I agree with me on some of these horses lol)

Video of the week

See how many of these names you remember when you survey the field? Groovy became a champion sprinter, Snow Chief was a very good horse who won a bunch of big races including the Preakness, Broad Brush was another top handicap horse winning the Santa Anita Handicap over Ferdinand in 1987 in a great race and he became a leading stallion. Mogambo was a hard knocker on the NYRA circuit and Wise Times won the Travers.