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Louisiana Derby Gr. II $1000000 1 3/16 FG
Silent Power - appears to be completely overmatched here as he hasn’t hit the board since last summer in a minor stake going 5.5 furlongs at Prairie Meadows. For G-money Melancon fans only.
Zozos - the lightly raced horses always get more attention than perhaps they deserve when moving into stakes company. This Munnings colt grinded out a maiden win over a good group first time out at FG before burying allowance horses at Oaklawn when stretching out to 8.5 furlongs. That day he stalked a slow pace and opened up in the stretch earning a 3.5 TG figure three weeks after earning an 8.5 first time. That race was almost 7 weeks ago so in theory he should have had time to recover but the reality is that the big figure was earned under ideal conditions which doesn’t appear to be the case here. Geroux will have to figure out a plan of attack with Epicenter drawn outside him and with other speed on the outside, he may find himself eating dirt on the inside. Some other questions are the added distance as with a stronger pace expected than last time (it was really slow) will he have that same closing kick as his pedigree doesn’t exactly scream more ground and will he be as effective off of lasix? At a price sure to be shorter than the morning line of 8-1 we will pass.
Call Me Midnight - unsighted since using a furious rally to rundown Epicenter in the Lecomte stakes at 8.5 furlongs, stretches out here but might not get the same positive pace scenario that he received last out. Has to improve off of the 5 TG he ran in his stakes winning effort but concerned about ground loss with his running style. He is sort of a mystery horse as he has shown steady improvement but on the other hand perhaps he has already peaked?
Curly Tail - ships in from Oaklawn for Stewart where he finally broke his maiden in his sixth try. A son of Curlin, he is another that appears to be pace compromised as he lacks early speed and may be disadvantaged by Epicenter seemingly having the early lead to himself. Off lasix as well, gets tested for class and must run another career best race to even get a small piece of the pie.
Kupuna - decent runner-up effort against the talented but quirky Cyberknife in his latest, is another entrant that doesn’t have a whole lot of natural early speed which seems to compromise his chances here. Has been working lights out for excellent conditioner Calhoun who is rare trainer that wins higher % in graded stakes than overall (23% vs 19%) but also loses lasix in this his stakes debut. If Epicenter gets pressed perhaps he can grab an on the board finish by being the best of the second flight runners but that is a questionable scenario.
Epicenter - the race goes through this colt who looks to be the main speed of the group, scoring last out in the Risen Star by controlling the pace and loping home an easy winner. Not This Time colt has been aggressively campaigned with monthly races since mid-November and he has been back on the work tab only 9 days post race after his last two which is quicker than most. Has shown the ability to lay just off the lead if someone goes on a kamikaze mission but it seems unlikely with the other horses with any early speed being drawn outside him. Yes he is going to be a short price but his incremental improvement to where he is running fast figures (8.5 TG to 5.75 to 5.75 to 2.5) as well as a race profile which suits him well makes him tough. Looking past this race, I will say that Asmussen has given him an excellent foundation and with his tactical speed you’d imagine that he would be in the very upper tier of contenders on the first Saturday in May. The Kentucky Derby is the most difficult race to win in American racing but his connections have given Epicenter his best chance.
Pioneer of Medina - admittedly I was more impressed with his last race than most everyone else considering I don’t believe that I have seen his name mentioned anywhere on any lists of top three year olds. But as I said in my list of every Derby Points earner last week, I’m a big fan of his ⤵️.
The issue he faces is that the pace scenario might play out in a similar fashion to the Risen Star, he may wind up chasing Epicenter and if new rider Gaffalione chooses to engage earlier, perhaps they both get softened up enough for a stranger to pick up the pieces. However there is no Smile Happy or Zandon in here and in my view he likely gets a similar trip to the Risen Star but salvages the runner up spot this time (especially if he runs back to his TG of 3) and earns his way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate with 40 points earned out of this 100 point prep.
Galt - was upended and lost his jockey as a result of a chain reaction accident at the top of the stretch in the Fountain of Youth just three weeks ago. Was a bit surprised to see him in the entries for the Louisiana Derby as Mott doesn’t make many forays to New Orleans though he is one for one this meet at the Fair Grounds. Not really sure what Alvarado will do as he unexpectedly found himself on the lead in the Holy Bull and he tired from those early efforts. Then he drew a tough outside post and was near the back of the pack before the mishap in the Fountain of Youth. While he had steadily improving speed figures going into the FoY, they were still a long way from being considered a real contender with the Holy Bull number of 9.5 TG being his best.
Rattle N Roll - is yet another pace compromised horse in this group as he also has very little early speed and figures to be towards the back of the pack in the initial stages. Lagged behind in his belated three year old debut at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth and never really made any impression. Was also surprised to see his name in the entries as his one really strong race of his career was at Keeneland so I was thinking that he might go next in the Bluegrass. McPeak might be thinking run here and then come back in the ‘last chance for points race’ over that track in the Lexington, a race he won last year with King Fury. Either way unless some wild speed duel develops and the race falls apart (which seems unlikely), it’s tough to see him doing any better than potentially putting in a late rally for a minor share of the awards/points.
📰 Derby News of the week
As has been the case for months now, this week’s high profile Kentucky Derby news emanates from racing’s most polemical figure, Robert A. Baffert. This news however seemed to catch the racing world by surprise as John Cherwa of the LA Times broke the story Thursday that 4 three year olds trained by Baffert led by potential Kentucky Derby favorite Messier would be transferred to different trainers. Messier, Doppelganger and McLaren Vale are moving to Tim Yakteen though Messier is the only one that seems a real Derby prospect. Blackadder who won the El Camino Real at Golden Gate is heading to Kentucky to the barn of Rudy Brisset most likely heading to the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway which is now owned by Churchill Downs meaning it would have been a no-go without the move. There of course is plenty of legal maneuvering still happening but I don’t know anyone who isn’t suffering from a serious case of burnout from that.
🚨Bonus Race 💰💰💰🇦🇪🇺🇸🇺🇾🇫🇷🇯🇵
Dubai World Cup (#’s by post) $12000000 1 1/4
Life is Good -🇺🇸 The best horse in North America travels to Dubai and will seek to lead this bunch wire to wire from his post one draw. The 10 furlong distance is still a question mark until he does it but hasn’t given any sign that the extra furlong will matter. Take some beating for Team Pletcher and Irad. (Saddle Towel #7)
Aero Trem (Brz) - 🇺🇾 Uruguay’s best horse trained by its top trainer, Antonio Cintra, is coming off of a non-threatening 5th place finish in the Saudi Cup which was his first race since winning the GP Latinoamerican (Gr I) back in his home base in October. With a decent pace expected back at his best distance of 10 furlongs, he rates an chance to get involved in the exotics at a giant price. (Saddle Towel #1)
Chuwa Wizard (Jpn)- 🇯🇵 Top Japanese horse showed he still has it last out at Kawasaki in a 889k tuneup for this race on February 2, with an easy score at 1-5, his 11th lifetime win raising his lifetime earnings to over 8 million dollars. Showed that he can handle this course and the caliber of International dirt competition with a solid runner up finish in last years World Cup to Mystic Guide. This years American shippers appear to be a step above that group but at anything close to morning line of 30-1 don’t hesitate to include. (Saddle Towel #2)
Grocer Jack - scratched
Country Grammer - 🇺🇸 Ran a huge race in the Saudi Cup off of a long layoff to just miss to huge home team long shot Emblem Road, settling for 2nd and a nice runner up check for $3500000. Have seen some sentiment that he should improve off of that effort but firmly in the opposite camp as Baffert horses are usually 100% ready to fire off of layoffs and if anything with the travel he might be due for a regression. Gets Dettori which is never bad but perhaps telling that Prat jumped ship, loyalty is a nice concept but this is a 600k jockeys winners share check we are talking about here. I’m in fade mode here. (Saddle Towel #3)
Real World (Ire) - 🇦🇪 Undefeated grade II winner on the turf (5 for 5) has never won a race on the dirt and just got drilled by almost 20 lengths in the Saudi Cup. Is a member of the home team of Godolphin/bin Suroor and gets the services of the great Christophe Soumillion but looks totally overmatched here. (Saddle Towel #10)
Hot Rod Charlie - 🇺🇸 O’Neill has made no bones about pointing to this race seemingly as soon as he cooled out after a disappointing 4th in the BC Classic. Was upended in late December in the San Antonio at SA by Express Train who has maintained excellent form following up that win by taking the San Pasqual and then the Santa Anita Handicap. Sent overseas early, he turned up in a Maktoum Challenge race that he won in relatively easy fashion against a marginal group. The problem here is he nor anyone else is fast enough to press Life Is Good so they may wind up chasing and hoping that he simply can’t get the distance or perhaps dislikes the track to the degree where he fades, which isn’t a super plan. However there is a reason that they run the races on the racetrack, they aren’t won on paper but at 3-1 or close to that morning line I’m in heavy fade mode here. (Saddle Towel #5)
Midnight Bourbon - 🇺🇸 I have been writing about his inability to finish off races since last May and honestly I thought that he might have matured into a stronger finisher. It hasn’t happened yet. In the Saudi Cup new tactics were tried though I’m not entirely sure that was the plan, but the big Tiznow colt wasn’t on the lead as usual, sitting 5th in the second tier behind what what seemed to be a rapid pace with Country Grammer to his inside and Mandaloun on his outside. As they straightened away down the long homestretch, Mandaloun was in retreat as he threw in a clunker and Midnight Bourbon and Country Grammer moved as a team past the tiring early leaders and looked like they were going to remain clear of the rest of the field, a duel to the wire loomed. Alas it wasn’t to be as Emblem Road unleashed a stout rally to nail County Grammer in the shadow of the winning post and Bourbon did what he always seems to do, weakened the last 50 meters. (Check that race out here) Ridden by Life at Good’s jockeys brother Jose Ortiz, he isn’t nearly fast enough to keep up with that one if Irad doesn’t want him to. Will he set up outside of the pacesetter, trying to force Hot Rod Charlie wide? Moving early doesn’t seem to be a logical plan for a horse that doesn’t finished strong either. It’s a tough call and it’s hard to call a recently minted 4 year old with $3.1 million in earnings on his report card frustrating, but that 15-2-6-5 record must be a bit vexing for his connections. (Saddle cloth #9)
Magny Cours - 🇫🇷 His only success on the dirt was a 3rd place finish in this very race last year though he is mostly known for grass and synthetic success sporting a 15-7-5-0 record on those two surfaces. Another owned by Godolphin and trained by the legendary Andre Fabre, he picks up the services of William Buick but comes into this race off of a trouncing in the Saudi Cup, beating stablemate Real World a nose for 10th. Seems like he is in this spot for the season, not the reason. (Saddle Towel #8)
Hypothetical (Ire) - 🇦🇪 A local horse owned by Sheikh Hamdan, he was 4th in this race last year. Comes into it on a two race winning streak albeit against softer competition than he will face here. He does possess good early speed BUT I don’t believe that he is in the same league as Life Is Good in that regard. Here is the 2021 Dubai World Cup replay where he was sent hard from the inside to dictate the pace but he is facing a different breed of speedy cat in 2022. (Saddle Towel #6)
Remorse (Ire) - 🇦🇪 Another local, he has a record that might make Midnight Bourbon blush (13-3-8-1) but frankly he just doesn’t appear to be good enough to bump heads with the very best in the world but using him underneath in exotics if you are tossing the Americans might yield a large payoff. (Saddle Towel #11)
Old School Video of the week sponsored by Game of Silks (www.silks.io)
Game of Silks is the next generation of thoroughbred racing. 🏇🏻
Solid write-up. Thanks.