Who leads the 2022 Derby Trail?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

I decided that I don’t have enough angst in my life so I decided to take a look at where the current group of three year old Kentucky Derby contenders stands with no preps scheduled till March 26/27 (UAE Derby, Louisana Derby and the Sunland Derby). I do not expect anyone to agree 100% and hopefully connections won’t take any perceived criticism of their horses Derby chances personally but it’s on them if they do. I currently have no 4 or 5 ⭐️ rated horses 53 days out which indicates my lack of faith in most of this years Derby crop. I didn’t rate any fillies or foreign horses and until they earn points against US based runners I’m not including them though this seasons three year old fillies is a very solid group. Last year I had eventual winner (for betting purposes) Medina Spirit listed as a ⭐️⭐️⭐️ play 7 weeks out.

Rating system is ⭐️ Based with 5 being the top rating and 0 being the bottom. This rates ability to win the Kentucky Derby only, not general rating and most won’t be rated at all

⬆️ Means improving chances for non-rated runners

⬇️ Means decreasing chances

↔️ No change

Horses listed by Kentucky Derby points earned as of March 13

• Classic Causeway - 66 points - picked up 50 points for his solid Tampa Bay Derby score over a relatively mundane group, once again blasting out of the gate and going wire to wire. The track surface wasn’t glib and his time was roughly a second slower than older horses ran in the Challenger stakes a couple hours earlier. Hopefully his connections give him one more prep as training up to the Derby never works. Has been steady on TG with 5’s but those figures pale when compared to last years favorite Essential Quality who was running 0’s and even the winner of the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby, the decidedly ordinary Helium, won the race with a 3 TG. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ If runs in Bluegrass. ⭐️ If he doesn’t. Closing pool 4 odds 10-1

• Epicenter - 64 points - broke through the 5.75 TG’s he had gotten in his two previous starts with a 2.5 TG in his easy Risen Star win. He jumped out to an uncontested lead and cruised home yet with the strength of this crop seemingly being the front runners, you have to take that figure jump with some trepidation. Scheduled to run back in the Louisiana Derby and is listed currently at 12-1. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 13-1

• Un Ojo - 54 points - has already improved a lot yet is still far below par for true Derby contenders. His figure winning the Rebel (7 TG) is very slow and when you compare Secret Oath’s huge numbers so far in Arkansas this season (3.75 then 1.5 then 1.5 in the Honeybee) you’d see why some of us are very much in the camp of her taking on boys the Arkansas Derby. I wouldn’t take less than 200-1.↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 36-1

• Simplification - 54 points - he doesn’t do much wrong, displayed versatility in the Holy Bull and again in the Fountain of Youth after setting blazing fractions in the Mucho Macho Man. His speed figures are good (2.5 TG in FoY and MMM) though the two times he regressed (5.5 in HB) were both coupled with starting gate incidents. That said he will be making start number 7 lifetime in the Florida Derby, with the Kentucky Derby potentially being his 5th start of the year which is a positive. The gate issues are a concern, 20 horse fields aren’t kind to a poor start but he is decent value sitting up there at 19-1. ⭐️⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 19-1

• Forbidden Kingdom - 50 points - blitzed the San Felipe in his first route race, earning a solid figure (2.25 TG) in the process. Looms a short price in the Santa Anita Derby depending on Messier’s status for that spot. His pedigree on the dams side makes getting 10 furlongs questionable though he is talented, he also hasn’t displayed much versatility and shares a front running style with several other contenders. ⭐️⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 7-1

• Morello - 50 points - he captured the Gotham in style for his third victory in three outings. Has yet to run around two turns and though he is earning big figures in these one turn races (2.75 TG in Gotham) it’s getting late in the game to get ample experience with the Wood looking like his only true Derby prep. He also employs a style utilizing tactical speed and runs the risk of getting caught up in a rapid pace. The Gotham has not been a productive Derby prep at all since it returned to the one turn format. I’d make him the ML favorite in the Pat Day Mile/Woody Stephens future books if they existed. ⬆️ Closing pool 4 odds 17-1

• Smile Happy - 30 points - McPeek taking the two 3 year old prep race road with this son of Runhappy which causes me to downgrade his Derby chances. He has ability earning good figs in his last two races (2.0 and 2.5 TG) but I’m skeptical that he will be seasoned enough or have the level of fitness required to navigate a 20 horse field with only two races the prior 5 months. Also not quite sold that Runhappy is going to get 10 furlong horses either.⭐️Closing pool 4 odds 6-1

• Grantham - 21 points - ran well chasing soft pace from inside post post in Tampa Bay Derby after mild rally in Withers. I don’t think the Withers was a particularly strong race like it’s suddenly being sold as, I think the weakness of the Tampa and Arkansas preps is being exposed more than anything. This is an improving colt (8 TG in Withers) who ran his best race Saturday but he is still a long way from being a real contender and there isn’t much time left to develop. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Ethereal Road - 20 points - improved quite a bit when second after very wide trip in the Rebel. You rarely see a horse earn number this much higher than the winners (4 TG vs 7 for winner). He has improved a lot in a short period of time and it’s unlikely he has another needed jump forward in the next 53 days. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 32-1

• In Due Time - 20 points - was part of the controversy in the Fountain of Youth when his jockey seemed to cause a chain reaction bumping incident at top of the stretch leading to two horses falling. That said he did run a representative race though regressing in figures which isn’t ideal at this stage (3 TG in allowance win to 6 last out). Scheduled to run back in Florida Derby and needs to do much better to be competitive on the first Saturday in May. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 48-1

• Deans List - 20 points - ran decently in Gotham but is unlikely to press on along Derby trail as he seems better suited to one turn races at this time. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Barber Road - 18 points - regressed in the Rebel though did encounter some traffic trouble. Improved a great deal from mid-October all the way down to a 4.50 TG in the Southwest and is another that’s unlikely to have much more upside after bouncing to 7 in the Rebel. Good money earner that tries hard but seems a step below the best. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 39-1

• Pappacap - 14 points - has not progressed since the dreaded 2021 Breeders Cup juvenile which has seen its major players mostly run poorly in 2022 or in the winner Corniche’s case, not even record an official workout. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Zandon - 14 points - lightly raced colt has improved in every start on figures (6.5 to 4.5 to 2.5) though his actual finish position is regressing. Interestingly enough has two 9 furlong preps but racing every two months makes me question if he will have the needed experience or fitness to overcome a 20 horse group? No horse in history has ever overcome such a modest schedule but his trainer seems determined to continue to try the light path to the Derby and if it’s ever gonna be done that way, Brown will likely be the one that does it. ⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 22-1

• Shipsational - 14 points - has probably run better in his two Tampa preps than he is given credit for. In both the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby was hung out wide and still never quit grinding in the lane. I believe it’s good that he will need to run in another prep, he could use more seasoning and I’d assume the Wood might be next. Winning that might not quite be the same as the Kentucky Derby but for a true blue New York trainer like Eddie Barker it would be a career highlight. This horse has those Funny Cide vibes that would make Naj Thompson of the NYTB happy ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 51-1

• White Abarrio - 12 points - ran them off their feet in the Holy Bull but skipped the Fountain of Youth which makes his task much, much harder. Another that seems like he runs better on the lead which will be an issue going forward. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 22-1

• Mo Donegal - 12 points - the Uncle Mo colt is a talented enigma whose back is now against the proverbial wall in the points department after scratching from the Fountain of Youth with a fever to point to the Wood on April 9 at Aqueduct. Hasn’t run figs good enough yet and is now dealing with a very light schedule which makes him an excellent candidate for the Belmont at this time. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 24-1

• Tiz the Bomb - 10 points - Tiz a turf horse pointing to a different type of Derby, Epsom. I’m not wagering on him in that Derby either but kudos to the connections for trying something different.⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Rattle N Roll - 10 points - we didn’t like his chances in the Fountain of Youth or really any Gulfstream short stretch races for that matter. It’s very difficult for horses with his come from the back of the pack style to win there and while I’m skeptical about him being a Kentucky Derby prospect, his best race by a long way was over the Keeneland surface so perhaps the Bluegrass?⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds 31-1

• Slow Down Andy - 10 points - not sure where he is heading for his next prep after bombing in the Risen Star. Worked 7f on Saturday so looks like O’Neill is gearing him up for a spot in one of the 100 point preps. His general quirkiness and light schedule aren’t positives at this stage on the Derby trail.↔️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Major General - 10 points - broke poorly in the Tampa Bay Derby and never menaced which might detour him off of the Derby trail but honestly even if he tries one of the 100 point preps, he has a lot of improvement needed in a diminishing time frame. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds 65-1

• Dash Attack - 10 points - his Derby hopes were dashed in consecutive poor attempts in weak Arkansas preps. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Early Voting - 10 points - his Withers effort was better than it looked on paper mostly due to the glacial Aqueduct winter surface which would make legendary Olympic sprinter Usain Bolt look like your Uncle Maury who has bunions. He has won going 9 furlongs but he is also going to exit March with 2 lifetime races which is a massive issue regardless of how he performs in his next expected race in the Wood.↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 19-1

• Call Me Midnight - 10 points - you can call him missing for most of the year since his upset win in the LeComte. Scheduled to run in the Louisiana Derby, he has a style where good fortune with pace and trip is required. Questions about his breeding and how much improvement he has remaining are valid. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds 68-1

• Courvoisier - 10 points - forget his name till Monmouth. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Happy Jack - 10 points - futilely chased Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe besting the other stragglers to be third because someone had to be.⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• O Captain - 10 points - inexplicably ran a good third in spill marred Fountain of Youth after two nondescript (slow figures 15 TG) wins sprinting. Regression to the mean expected in the Florida Derby but kudos to the connections for being bold. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Golden Code - 10 points - Pletcher New York bred was non-threatening third in Gotham. Don’t expect to see in Louisville.⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Kavod - 7 points - pacesetter in Arkansas stakes this spring, will be shish kavod if he keeps trying to stretch that speed against better horses. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Commandperformance - 6 points - another member of the 2021 Breeders Cup juvy crew showing morbid three year old form getting upended in a Tampa Bay Downs maiden race this Saturday. I’m tossing my Derby futures ticket on him from pool number #1 in the garbage. ⬇️ Closing pool 4 odds (field) 4-1

• Emmanuel - 5 points - ran well in the Fountain of Youth (4 TG) but that was partly obscured by his extremely wide trip from an outside post. It’s very hard for these lightly raced horses that don’t have much experience as they often dominated the non-stakes competition and don’t have a plan B to fall back on. Might have another forward move in him but can’t stub his toe again as he has to be 1st/2nd in his last prep to qualify and even then I’m pretty ambivalent about his chances going 10f in 53 days. ↔️ Closing pool 4 odds 33-1

• Pioneer of Medina - 5 points - another from the Pletcher army, he ran better than it looks on paper on the Risen Star when he got a wide trip chasing Epicenter yet still was able to manage to be narrowly beaten in 4th to Smile Happy and Zendon. That was a big jump in class and speed figures (3 TG) for the Pioneer of the Nile colt and with his decent foundation he is a very live longshot in the Louisiana Derby and potentially the Kentucky Derby. If you can get anything 50-1 or over before March 26, a few dollars on a flyer is suggested. ⭐️⭐️ Closing pool 4 odds 71-1

• Charge It - 0 points - showed great promise (5 & 5.75 TG) this winter but it’s March 14 and he has never faced anything other than maidens in 2 starts. ⬆️ Closing pool 4 odds 17-1

• Cyberknife - 0 points - talented but quirky colt bombed in his only stakes appearance but followed that up with fast fig albeit perfect trip win February 19 at the FG. Don’t see Derby with this guy. ❓Closing pool 4 odds 36-1

• Zozos - 0 points - has been pretty dominant against non-stakes competition but he hasn’t faced stakes company yet, has little time left and with his pedigree (Munnings out of Forestry mare) you likely aren’t thinking 10 furlongs. ❓ Closing pool 4 odds 30-1

• Baffert runners: Only Messier gets a comment from us as we aren’t considering any of the others serious contenders should something happen that would allow them in the starting gate this year. Messier has been training well with the Santa Anita Derby looming as a showdown with Forbidden Kingdom which would be round 2 since the they already went at it once last fall in the Bob Hope at Del Mar. That day Messier got the best of his rival when Forbidden Kingdom stumbled coming out of the gate then set supersonic fractions (21.40 and 43.23) before tiring late in the 7f race. Clearly the Canadian son of Empire Maker is very talented but who knows what shenanigans the next 52 days will bring to see if he will even get a chance on the first Saturday in May.

⏱List of best Beyers for 2022

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