Fall ‘some stars’ Saturday

Real writing on Racing 💯

☀️Opening day at Keeneland was run under perfect weather conditions in front of what seemed to be a large and lively crowd. The day got kicked off with a 15-1 upsetter shipping in from FanDuel Park (formerly known as Fairmont Park) in the lid-lifter, a $12500 claimer ridden by the ageless ET Baird (he won a pair!) for former Midwestern C track kingpin, Ralph Martinez. In that first race ten ran and eight got claimed lol.

🆘 Tough Trip alert - Race 4 - Robo Man - Broke a step slow in the 5.5 turf sprint, was trailing down the backside when he spooked from something and appeared to jump, almost unseating Joel Rosario. Rosario recovered and Robo Man started to make a belated run as they turned into the stretch when Casanova Kitten drifted in front of him, forcing him to steady and costing him any momentum he might have gathered. I don’t know if trainer Lacy Pierce can get him back in before the end of the meet or if CD will have a grass course to race on in November, but he is a one to bet back.

👀 We often lament the way that racing is adjudicated on the racetrack, where inconsistent rulings seem to be the only constant. Keeneland’s Race 5 is the latest example of curious judging where a drifting horse was DQ’ed despite a lack of video evidence of any actual foul committed, outside a VERY liberal interpretation of intimidation/interference. Did Olga Isabel drift out on the turn? Absolutely. Does she actually interfere with the runner up Jag Warrior? It is really difficult to say she did without setting a very precarious precedent. There is no rule stating that drifting out from path 5 to 8 is any different than 2 to 5 (which happens daily) as long as you aren’t intimidating or interfering with foes. IMO stewards should not be assuming that a foul occurred unless they have video proof that it did, not some flimsy circumstantial evidence that the runner up lost by a small margin. If this is going to be the standard, fine. We have been staunch supporters of making jocks ride straight and penalizing them harshly until they do. However are we going to be seeing a LOT of inquiries now that drifting isn’t allowed or will this just be another situation where stewards are allowed to play God without any oversight or accountability? We don’t train our stewards properly in the United States therefore they more or less make it up as they go along. Yet as long as they can rewind video to count strikes with the crop…the leadership of racing will smugly declare that all is well and everything is great.

⭐️ I admit that I don’t often watch Maryland racing all that closely yet I was watching the Capital OTB channel yesterday afternoon and saw a horse acting up during the post parade of the 6th race from Laurel. I said to myself, after quickly looking up the PP’s of the MSW race for 2yo’s going 5.5 furlongs, let’s see how Post Time runs. The Maryland bred son of Frosted, trained by Brittany Russell and ridden by her exercise rider and occasional rider, former full time jockey, Eric Camacho, broke alertly and settled back in 5th behind solid fractions. On the turn, Camacho angled the first time starter at least 5 wide, and he responded by accelerating past most of the field. Once he straightened out in the homestretch, he finished off the rest while lugging in, acting green as Camacho tried to stay out of his way as much as possible and also stay on top of him. The final time of 1:04.26 matches up very nicely with the 8th race, an older filly allowance race that went 1:04.25. I don’t really know if Post Time is a good horse that beat a nice field, a decent horse that beat a so-so group or he is just the best of a soft lot…but he did look like he has a few more gears left to find. Read more about Eric Camacho as this was his first win in six years!

🥉 We spoke about the weakness of the Vosburgh(Gr II) yesterday but the Phoenix wasn’t really much better, just a few extra horses. The older sprint division is in shambles.

🥈 I don’t know why horsemen/jockeys treat speed like it’s a bad thing in grass races but it’s insanity. Lure, Great Communicator, Leroidesanimaux(Brz), Intercontinental (GB), Tight Spot, Singspiel (Ire), Possibly Perfect, etc. are all Eclipse winners that often won grade I’s on the lead. Stop with this nonsense that every horse has to be covered up and make a late run, this isn’t Europe, they don’t beat us because they come from behind, the beat us because they are better. Todays Jessamine (Gr II) was an example where multiple jockeys on horses coming out of races, showing speed in sprints, took hold and rated, giving away their one advantage. Delight is a nice filly who perhaps might have won anyway, but she was absolutely gifted this race. Knockyoursocksoff and Sabalenka both ran very well despite the dawdling pace and are the ones to follow until, of course, they wind up in another paceless race that doesn’t have to be that way.

🥇 Wonder Wheel raced like a short horse last out in the Spinaway(Gr I) closing Sunday at Saratoga. Not so in the Alcibiades (Gr I) as Tyler Gafflione hustled her out of the gate, grabbed the lead on the first turn, rated on the lead while setting a legit pace, opened up turning into the short stretch and just lasted over Chop Chop, who was probably best. A lot of what looked like contenders didn’t run a lick but that often happens as so many are stretching out for the first time.

💰 Silks is up and running! People are getting their stables lined out, land is being purchased to build stables for those horses, demand is growing and it’s only going to get bigger! If you are into fantasy sports…would fantasy horseracing combined with real world racing action interest you? Check out Silks Here! If you have questions just send an email to goingincirclespodcast@gmail.com and we will do our best to assist you.

😢 RIP to Meadowlands TV host and leading Harness racing media personality Dave Brower who passed away suddenly yesterday. He was only 53. Never forget that tomorrow is promised to no one.

Woodford Gr II $350,000 5.5 furlongs turf 3&up

When we last saw him, Golden Pal was struggling to beat B team turf sprinters in the Troy (Gr III) at the Spa, while Wesley was trying to convince everyone that he was better off rating and was going to try dirt in his next start. None of it made sense to me as Golden Pal’s superpower is his freaky gate speed and and suddenly having him rate and finish seemed to be reinventing the wheel with a horse that is both very credentialed (2 Breeders Cup wins, 6 graded stakes wins) and close to the end of his career. I could sort of understand an attempt on the dirt, he isn’t undefeated, there is no turf sprint Eclipse he might blow and if the surface experiment didn’t work out, few would hold it against him. 26 days after the Troy (Gr III), Golden Pal worked 51.80 over Keeneland’s main track which was the 16th slowest of 17 works that day. The dirt experiment was off and back to the grass he went. 24 days later he worked his usual fast work, a bullet over the Keeneland grass (1:00.40) and followed that up a week later with a similar move. Noticed in pictures of him schooling (he looks good) that he is training without shoes which may or may not be a thing. Is the rating trial still in effect? I’d love if someone on one of the broadcasts would ask that question but they probably won’t. Anyway I will be playing against him, probably spread and use a few (Cadamosto (Ire) will be one I use) in multi-race wagers as he will be over-bet as he always is. If he beats me…he beats me.

TCA Gr II $350,000 6 furlongs 3&up fillies/mares

1. Li’l Tootsie - cuts back to her best distance (10-4-1-3 at 6f) after trying to stretch out in the Locust Grove. In a race that seems loaded with speed, I’m taking a swing here at anything close to the morning line of 15-1.

2. Palm Cottage - 2 for 2 since transferred to Lobo with both wins coming on the front end. Tough draw for her as it places her inside the other speed horses which might force new jock Prat to send and hope she can get her head in-front. That scenario isn’t something I want to try at anything close to her morning line.

3. Club Car - this race actually looks to play to her favored style though any horse who has a record like 17-2-11-2 at the 6f distance is one that’s tough to play on top.

4. Caribbean Caper - went 5 for 5 to start her career in 2021, before a long layoff of almost a year till her comeback race at Colonial in August. In that stakes she chased and faded late, perhaps she needed the start but she has only run fast enough to win this one time.

5. Sconsin - hasn’t been as sharp this year as prior years and Foley does most of his best work in Louisville, he is only winning 8% at Keeneland in his last 165 tries. Her best is easily good enough but I’m wary at a short price.

6. Liberty M D - she doesn’t appear good enough

7. Slammed - showed real California speed for a New Mexico bred trained by the sharp Fincher. Figures to be pressed on the lead and if she doesn’t break alertly (gate trouble last 2 starts) she may wind up in chase mode against better fillies and mares than she is used to chasing. Might toss if the field stays intact and the other speed stays in.

8. Joyful Cadence - keep waiting for a breakthrough but it hasn’t come. She is likely to get involved with the pace scramble and I don’t think she is good enough on prior form to alternate for the lead in fast fractions and hold off the closers.

9. Happy Soul - if you bet all Wesley Ward filly sprinters in graded stakes blindly this year you’d be way ahead. Three year old takes on elders not having run any races near good enough to win this but WW is often difficult to toss out as he might be the top ‘out of nowhere effort’ trainer in racing.

First Lady Grade 1 one mile turf 3&up fillies/mares

This is a Chad Brown stranglehold race, he holds all the cards here and it’s frustrating to try to figure out how the thing will play out. Last year in this race, his Blowout set soft fractions and held off Regal Glory, who is back for another try. Yet here we are a year later and her entry mates once again are the controlling speed in the First Lady (Gr I). In Italian (GB) was last seen wiring the field on a hard, early speed favoring course at Saratoga in the Diana (Gr I), beating among others Technical Analysis (Ire) who won her own ‘merry-go-round’ race in the Ballston Spa (Gr II). Do we see another ‘merry-go-round’ race? When do Technical Analysis (Ire) and Regal Glory apply pressure on their stablemate, assuming that In Italian (GB) goes to the lead? Trying to figure out the handicapping puzzle is difficult enough without having to wonder about internal stable preferences. In the end, Regal Glory is just a little faster than the other two (She consistently runs the best TG figs of any turf mare in North America) and if she can stay within a length or two, should be able to out-kick them at a short price. The other non-Brown trained mare with a chance is Princess Grace who has carved out a nice career where she doesn’t run all that often but always fires. She does possess tactical speed and perhaps moves earliest, ensuring the pace stay honest? Vigilantes Way is a Shug/Phipps mare that has spent the majority of her career racing in grade III’s at Monmouth and in the mid-Atlantic, and appears a notch below these and Market Rumor, who also would have to run a ‘by-far’ lifetime best race to beat this caliber.

Breeders Futurity Gr I $600,000 8.5f dirt 2yo

A 14 horse field is a rarity in American racing these days and handicapping them is an exercise in more guesswork than usual. This race in particular has the added element of 8 horses going two turns for the first time, and 6 of them having shown speed or prompted the pace in their latest. In other words…something has to give. Let’s start off at the place many Kentucky stakes races start out, the Brad Cox barn. He has two impressive first time starter, maiden breakers in Loggins and Instant Coffee. Both were pricey yearlings that scored at first asking at Churchill and Saratoga respectively. Both ran excellent figs (Loggins received a 90 Beyer and TG of 6 - Instant Coffee a 85 and 7.5) going 7 furlongs and are stretching out in their second start (Cox has great numbers sprint/route 32% with flat bet profit of 2.01). Loggins was more brilliant, always prominent while crushing foes just three weeks ago at 4-5 while Instant Coffee had to grind it out up the inside after breaking from post 1 and then hold off a late charge, shrugging off that one’s bumping at 14-1. Neither would be a surprise here though you are getting 5-1 on the stablemate with the better jockey as opposed Loggins at 8-5. Forte looked spectacular in the paddock before the Hopeful (Gr I) and ran to those looks, splashing home a 3 length winner, earning a race high 3.75 TG fig in the process. While stretching out should be well within his scope, my concern is that he didn’t handle traffic all that well in his previous race, a dull 4th in the Sanford. At 3-1 I’d be willing to fade him with regression off of the huge sloppy track win, more likely than not. The Pletcher entrant that is more interesting to me is Lost Ark who cruised to a 7 length score in the two turn Sapling in late August at Monmouth. He paired 9 TG and can certainly improve off of those and I like Prat on him as he suits his running style. Distant third place finisher in the Sapling, Major Dude came out of that race to take the Pilgrim (Gr II) at Baqueduct last Sunday. Robert Baffert shows up with Newgate, who was an impressive maiden winner before being run off his feet by barnmate Cave Rock, in the freaky Del Mar Futurity (Gr I) over a wildly fast surface. His pedigree doesn’t shout more distance though I’d rather try him at a long price over anyone coming out of the Iroquois (Gr III) as I believe that was a weak race. Powerful looks like a horse that should be better suited in two turn races but is stuck in post 14 which makes it a difficult task to find a trip to relevance.

Coolmore Turf Mile Gr I $1,000,000 1 mile 3&up

1. Classic Causeway - don’t understand the placement as he isn’t nearly fast enough to compete with top class milers. The Hollywood Derby (Gr I) should be his late season goal and I don’t see how this advances that cause.

2. Smooth Like Straight - the Happy Saver of turf, always runs well, doesn’t win too often. Comes into this with 7 straight narrow decision losses, while keeping the best of American grass company. Looms the controlling speed though can be lapped on a leader if someone else insists on being in front. We have a lot of confidence in trainer McCarthy, Johnny V has still got it and this is our top choice here, though understanding the scorn headed our way if he is second once again.

3. Order of Australia (Ire) - I believe he is the only AE to ever win a BC race, blowing up my ticket in the process as I forgot he drew in and didn’t use him in my “screw it I’m boxing all the Euros” exacta box (paid $1058 for $1) in the 2020 BC Turf Mile. Bombed in this race at 6-5 last fall and has kept top company this season though hasn’t been that highly rated overseas. Gets the currently notorious Soumillion, a huge plus regardless of his elbowing status, he is one of the very best jockeys in the world. At 8-1 morning line…I won’t forget to use him this time.

4. Gray’s Fable - in good form but generally isn’t this class

5. Masen (GB) - figures to get an excellent trip just behind the speed and is a player, especially at 12-1

6. Ivar (BRZ) - doesn’t show up in the entires often but when he does, he usually fires. Wary of Talamo leaving him too much to do here as this isn’t the best course for his late running style. Takes blinkers off which is his 4th blinkers change in 11 North American races, which is probably meaningless but I thought it was interesting

7. Santin - cuts back to a mile and got a huge turf figure in winning the Arlington Million at CD, a TG of -.75. However his other really fast number also came over Churchill’s embattled grass and his non-CD grass numbers aren’t outstanding against this group. Fading him here.

8. Annapolis - three year old steps up to tackle older after more or less, time trailing in the Saranac (Gr III), perhaps the weakest Saratoga graded stakes ever. He is a few points slower than the contenders but he is improving and has the right style to work out a good trip. Don’t love him but he has a shot at an on-the-board placing at a price.

9. Casa Creed - finally got a non-turf sprint grade 1 in the Fourstardave (Gr I) and kudos for that but the small field helped and he will have to deal with a lot of traffic today which makes it tough to use him. That isn’t easy to say about horses coming in with two consecutive grade 1 wins.

10. Somelikeithotbrown - hard to see a path to the winners circle for him. Perhaps Ortiz blasts off to the lead but there shouldn’t be any soft paces set (though I guess you never know what going to happen, re:pace in grass routes, these days 🙄) and if he doesn’t go to the front, a wide trip looms.

11. Emaraaty - won a weak edition of the Barnard Baruch (Gr III) when unchallenged on the lead. This is a much tougher assignment and anything less than 25-1 is an underlay.

12. Set Piece (GB) - handicapping is a personal thing and there are some horses that you always guess wrong with. For me Set Piece (GB) is one of those horses, when he zigs, I zag. Oddly enough the 6 year old trained by Kentucky’s leading trainer has only made one Keeneland start in his career and he was unplaced, 7th in the Makers Mark (Gr I) this past spring. He really needs a complete pace meltdown and a fortunate turn of traffic events from post 12 and we are guessing that won’t happen. So since I’m not using…be prepared for him to upset the apple cart at 13-1 lol.

BAQ - Vosburgh Gr II $250,000 6f dirt 3&up

We wrote yesterday about the relative weakness of this race and honestly Friday’s Phoenix (Gr II) from Keeneland was no work of art either. The fact that there is no real speed horses in a BC Sprint win and your in race is fascinating though also troubling. Jalen Journey is the closest thing to a pace setter as we can see here and he showed none in his last race….on Monday. Southern District and Elite Power are promising horses with zero stakes credentials and both are sit and pounce closers with very little early gas. Eastern Bay is an 8 year old with 9 starts this year, ridden in all of them by a 7 pound bug boy. Drafted has had some success at this track though he is currently out of form. It’s very difficult task to really like anyone here but in the end Elite Power’s talent might be enough to get him to the winners circle though I doubt I will bet on that at a short price.

BAQ - Matron Gr III $150,000 6f outer turf 2yo fillies

This is a difficult though very competitive race and if you are playing multi-race wagers going deep is probably the way to go. Determined Jester is one that I’d consider here, coming out of stakes win against males at Colonial last out for solid trainer Phil Schoenthal and the capable Forrest Boyce. Danse Macabre is the likely and deserved favorite after a series of strong races including getting up in the final strides to win a lucrative stakes at Kentucky a downs in her latest. She has done quite a bit of traveling though, this will be her first start at 5 different tracks since her debut on June 25. I like people that race their horses and love to see them rewarded, but with the change in season and the miles, perhaps she is due to take a step back and taking a short price isn’t wise. Redefined is another that rates an excellent chance and Personal Pursuit makes her grass debut after breaking her maiden on a wet dirt surface in start number two, just 16 days ago, but did it with a super fast figure (TG 5). Sweetlou’sgotaces has a terrible name and had a troubled trip in her debut, rates a punchers chance at 12-1.

BAQ - Turf Classic Gr I $500,000 12 furlongs turf 3&up

1. Bye Bye Melvin - he came off a long layoff and is now a speed horse which makes him dangerous in a pace-less affair like this. (Btw- why do the Saratoga Derby and the other relatively new three year old grass races have a much higher purse than the Turf Classic???). He should set a slow pace under crafty rider Feargal Lynch and might try to steal one here for Graham Motion, similar to earlier in the season when his Highland Chief contested very soft pace and upset the Man O’ War (Gr I) at 20-1.

2. War Like Goddess - Mott is going to try her in the BC Turf this year as the course configuration at Keeneland makes the F/M turf distance shorter than he feels the 5 yo mare is best at. She got a very suspect ride in her last (voted worst ride of the Spa meet by the illustrious Going in Circles panel) and Jose Lezcano will have to fall off to do worse than that trip. That said it is a real question if she is good enough to beat the boys and the second part of that, is she in as good of form as she was last season? I’m guessing no.

3. Adhamo - I have bet against him in every one of his US starts and have only been wrong once, against a much softer group this summer at Monmouth. Won’t stop now.

4. Astronaut - hard to find his races that would be good enough, though his only start this year was at a distance that was far too short.

5. Rockemperor (Ire) - every once in awhile he fires a big shot, it’s just difficult to know when it’s coming. A player here but it’s a guessing game.

6. Soldier Rising (GB) - part one of the Clement pace compromised pair, he is a few lengths slower than his barnmate and has the same lack of early speed to deal with.

7. Gufo - crushed my dreams when running down Mira Mission in the Sword Dancer on Travers day, which was his best race of the season to date. Ran well at Kentucky Downs in his last, though I’m probably going to lean against here at a short price as the Big A which doesn’t seem like it will be as kind to his style as Belmont is.

The 1984 Turf Classic which matched the great John Henry versus 1983 Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer All Along and the tough NY bred Win