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Real Writing on Racing 💯

Aug 28, 2022

🏆 It’s only been a month, but going into the Jim Dandy there were many still with mixed emotions about Epicenter. His Kentucky Derby run was a good one, he held off the horse every one thought he’d have to beat in Louisville in Zandon, yet Rich Strike happened. Then a poor break in the Preakness left him in a difficult spot, the race going to Early Voting who got a perfect trip. Even though Epicenter rallied to be second, the questions about his place on the hierarchy of three year olds was being questioned. Can he finish off a big race or is he going to be a nice horse who just doesn’t get the job done in the most important races?

Surely his huge run through the stretch of the Jim Dandy quelled the fears that he couldn’t get back in the winners circle, even if it was a little surprising in what seeemd like a paceless race, Joel Rosario took him back to last. When Epicenter zoomed past the aforementioned Early Voting and Zandon in the stretch, he seemed destined to be the favorite for the biggest three year old target post-Triple Crown, the Travers.

And yes on this sun-splashed, late August day, he not only was the betting favorite for the 153rd Travers, his performance left no doubt who the king of the hill in the three year old division is. Under a perfect trip crafted by Rosario, he attacked the pacesetting Haskell winner, Cyberknife approaching the quarter pole, blew past him about 3/16ths of a mile to the wire, and cruised home, stopping the clock in a snappy 2:00.72 while 5 1/4 lengths clear. The easy win validated his entire career path, one where Asmussen didn’t skip many spots, dancing many dances, yet still finding room for development. The Not this Time colt’s continued improvement is a stark contrast to some of the other talented yet carefully handled three year olds he humbled on this warm, late summer afternoon. Epicenter earned a career high 112 Beyer fig for his huge Travers score, finally making that leap to elite type figures that had eluded him thus far in his now 10 race career.

💤 Due to space constraints and general fatigue on behalf of yours truly, we will offer brief comments for all pertinent runners in yesterday’s stakes, with a short wrap up of post race thoughts.

Travers 🎪

Epicenter - Really good horse, clear division leader, where does he go from here?
Cyberknife - has developed into top notch colt after early career antics, super game to hold place. Pace was NOT slow despite some Twitter claims to the contrary
Zandon - didn’t think he was a 10 furlong horse before, know he isn’t now.
Rich Strike - odd to me that this race is somehow viewed by some as a validation of their opinion that the Derby wasn’t a fluke. Perhaps he isnt a donkey but he is not exactly the second coming of Hindoo either and the knocks on Leon’s ride are baffling. If he was truly a “good horse” he would have been second, his jock gave him every opportunity, he just wasn’t good enough. No shame in it but let’s just hold off on plaudits, at the very least till he hits the board again. Put it this way, name another horse who is well respected, that people would hold up an excellent trip fourth as an example of their validity? Why did we not hear this after the Belmont? What race does anyone foresee this horse winning in the near future? IMO he is a grade III horse that needs 10 furlongs, I’d take that and the Kentucky Derby trophy and not worry about anything else.
Artorius - Not ready for prime time yet
Early Voting - he was not good in the Jim Dandy, he was terrible today

Personal Ensign 🎪

This race played out just as it looked like it might from the beginning except for Clairiere clearly not being herself prior to the race, acting up in the starting gate and perhaps hitting her head. She ran like she was concussed and I have no clue how to or if you can even check a horse for that condition, she just wasn’t able to get involved at all today which is totally out of character.

Malathaat - delayed reaction from the addition of blinkers last out? She was really good today, grinding down Search Results late as she did in last year’s Kentucky Oaks. Don’t believe any nonsense about her running the second best race here, she ran best and got the money and the entire Distaff division looks wide open.
Search Results - without holding up a giant sign in the post parade, it was obvious if you read between the lines, that she would not be engaging Letruska as early as she did in a “won the battle but lost the war” fashion in the Phipps. Prat was in a tough spot, having to decide when to go after the early leader, not waiting too long as to embolden last year’s champion but not going too early and paying the price late. IMO he did a good job, her attacking at the quarter pole was the proper time and just not being able to hold off the winner is why we run the races.
Letruska - Perhaps she has lost a step as a six year old as she did get an uncontested lead and was able to carve out comfortable fractions yet couldn’t hold off the top two. It wasn’t a bad race at all but I’m not sure that she is going to beat these other top fillies anymore.

Sword Dancer 🎪

I think the US based turf horses are a soft as Charmin division once again so I went looking for one who still looked to have room to improve. Mira Mission at 18-1 was an amazing price and the fact that he just couldn’t get the job done will be a thorn in my side for awhile.

Gufo - won the race last year after Ryan Moore got lost. This year Ryan Moore got lost again (Buick > Moore) and Gufo with blinkers added was able to run down a clear Mira’s Mission, who continues to break my heart. He hasn’t been as good this year as last but the entire grass division is a giant pit of mediocrity.
Mira’s Mission - two close seconds away from leading this shaky division (Turf Classic and yesterday). Leparoux put him in a position to win, Mira just couldn’t finish the job. 😭
Soldier Rising (GB) - one run closer ran well
Broome (Ire) - prefers firmer ground but had very wide trip after coming out of gate poorly

HA Jerkens 🎪

The three year old sprint division is very good this season and this was the deepest field of the year.

Jack Christopher - the division leader coming in. The division leader coming out. He parlayed a stalking trip behind a fast pace to slingshot to the front at the top of the stretch, and looked like he might draw away like he has before. Gunite kept coming though and made Jack Christopher and Jose Ortiz work to the wire to get the money.
Gunite - game runner up and might have made it even closer or perhaps even got the money if he hadn’t bobbled at the start or stopped swapping leads and running erratically mid-stretch. You literally won’t hear this take anywhere else because people in racing love coronations but Gunite ran as good or better than the winner (who ran really well too but it’s a lot closer than you will hear)
Runninsonofagun - I hated the blinker change off of his last race but I was wrong, he was even better today. He isn’t quite in the class of the top two but he has developed into a very nice stakes quality sprinter for John Toscano. Gun Runner gelding was a hell of a claim out of a maiden 40000 back on New Year’s eve.
Conagher - post one forced Joe Rocco’s hand but he was always going to the lead, the inside just made him work a touch harder to get there. That said, he didn’t offer up much resistance when the winner came to him and he might just be a notch below the very best of the division.
Accretive chased wide but never looked like he was doing much running. Big disappointment after two really stellar starts.

Forego 🎪

I’m sure you will hear lots of knocking of Jackie’s Warrior after this race but it’s misguided. He actually ran a pretty good semblance of his usual race even if he wasn’t able to easily shake Pipeline or hold off the eventual winner, Cody’s Wish. Sure when 1-9 shots lose, people are understandably upset but the real story should be the massive effort by Cody’s Wish as it might have been the best Forego performance since Groovy carried 132 to win the 1987 version.

Cody’s Wish - when you first watch the Forego it’s easy to say wow Jackie’s Warrior set pretty ordinary fractions, though under constant pressure, how did he lose? Well check out the trip that Cody’s Wish got before unleashing a furious stretch rally, the ONLY horse to make up an inch of ground not only in this race, but most of the other dirt sprints as well. He was well back next to confirmed closer Drafted for the first 3 1/2 furlongs before Junior Alvarado wisely angled inside a struggling Kneedeepinsnow on the turn, then steered the big colt to the outside to continue his run. When he switched leads in the stretch he took off again, keeping momentum from his sustained run to upset the champ in his first sprint stakes ever, good for 112 Beyer.
Jackie’s Warrior - haters gonna hate but he just got beat by a better horse on this day. Perhaps didn’t get enough out of the easy wins and you could make the case that this may not have been his best effort considering how long it took him to get rid of Pipeline. However in 99.99% of races in this country, an embattled speed horse goes 1:08.76 then runs the last eighth in 12.1 or 12.2, they are an easy winner.
Pipeline - seems to be a tweener at this level. Might be better suited to a mile where he could be controlling speed.
Baby Yoda - I’m guilty of talking about course records and this one was 3 for 3 on this surface coming in, which attracted more money than was probably warranted. Had good pocket trip behind dueling leaders yet made no impact at all.

Ballston Spa 🎪

Technical Analysis (Ire) - gifted easy lead in short field with two other stablemates. Walked the dog and had to dig deep to hold on
Fluffy Socks - closing at the end, might have been best and with any sort of pace pressure on the winner, might have won this

🎪 Weather could not have been better for Travers day, sunny, warm and comfortable despite a large crowd of 49,672 actual people who bet a record $55,559,315.

❤️ Despite the eternal frustration of a great score being nullified by a horse with middling form suddenly recapturing it’s old glory (yes I’m still bitter) it was a really fun day at the track, which in the end is how it’s supposed to be. Saw old friends, made new ones, hung out all over, had some laughs, ate some good food and got to see an excellent card of top tier racing. Hard to ask for more.

🤨 If it’s true that HISA rules and the stewards that enforce them have stolen $26000 from the owners of Drafted, let’s just say that the pleas for people to just accept this mess, should continue to fall on deaf ears. You steal money from people…they will leave and not come back. That idiotic rule needs to change or the people on these HISA committees need to. Anyone who believes that ride was abusive to the point of an extreme penalty is a simpleton. Fine the rider. Give him days. Make him watch Thistledowns replays for 12 hours straight. Whatever…but that violation doesn’t merit that extreme penalty TO THE OWNERS WHO DID NOTHING WRONG! Stop the madness 🛑

🏅 Kentucky Downs has drawn its opening day card for Thursday and it’s a doozy! 10 races with mostly full fields, including the over subscribed $400,000 Tapit Stakes (Listed) as the feature. With Saratoga regulars Gafflione, Leparoux and Santana all heading back to KY, and Irad, Rosario, Castellano and McCarthy all suspended for a few days, next weeks Saratoga cards will see some unusual names and a lot of Jose Lezcano! Be interesting to see the handle impact of Kentucky Downs, Saratoga and Del Mar all racing at the same time.

Day 34 (6 racing days to go)

Ballerina Hdcp Gr I $500,000 7 furlongs dirt F/M

Ce Ce - defending filly/mare sprint champion, was third last year in this race to Gamine, she comes in off of similar pattern, an easy score in the Princess Rooney (Gr III) on what remains of the old Summit of Speed card at GP. Drawing the rail isn’t ideal but there should be enough early speed that clears than regular rider Espinoza can work out trip, and she has won up the inside before albeit quite a long time ago. She currently sits on top of the Going in Circles Gold 7 Rankings as the top female sprinter, with rivals Obligatory and Bella Sophia checking in at second and fifth respectively. If track is playing similar where speed is not bad but not dominant, she will be big player in here though she does give weight to all.
Obligatory - super sharp this year, got pace hampered in last on Belmont eve, as a short field with no pressure for Belle Sophia put her in chase mode early yet she was getting to that rival at the end. As a closing sprinter she always needs a little good fortune with the pace and traffic to navigate but on her best she is every bit as good as anyone. Will be flying late.
Caramel Swirl - ended last year in high note taking down the Raven Run (Gr III) at Keeneland before returning this May to beat up on allowance foes at Belmont. Off 100 days but has running style that is suitable and clearly the results of yesterdays Forego shows that Bill Mott can get one turned up to win a grade I stake going 7f at Saratoga. Needs best effort to win but might be sitting on it at a price.
Lady Rocket - going to send to the lead and try to improve her postion. Well at least that has been the plan pretty much all year though she finally got the job done in the Chicago (Gr III) at CD after tiring late in Madison (Gr I) and Ruffian (Gr II). Might not get clear enough if Bella Sophia chases early but speed is always dangerous.
Bella Sophia - draws outside the speed unlike in the Honorable Miss (Gr II). Saez figures to sit off of Lady Rocket’s flank in the early stages, be interesting to see when Luis asks her to engage with some pretty solid closer in here. Capable on best and for the first time this year should get somewhat decent price for Rudy who is enduring miserable meet (2 for 72).
Travel Column - was on Classics trail last year culminating with 5th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (Gr I) before heading to the shelf after a poor showing in the Acorn (Gr I). Transferred to Mott, she returned to the races with a excellent performance against allowance company at Churchill similar to her stablemate Caramel Swirl. She doesn’t seem fast enough against these.
Goodnight Olive - Brown style, lightly raced filly that went through all her allowance conditions, which isn’t often seen these days. Has run very good TG figs last two (O and -.5) which puts her in the mix but these fillies will punch back, unlike her soft competition in the last (BTW - TG timed her last race in 1:17.20 as the DRF and BRIS don’t have a listed time). I will let her beat me.

Going In Circles Digest

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