Barely Saratoga

Real Writing on Racing 💯

⛈ We correctly predicted that the third and tenth races were in danger of being pulled off the soggy turf after the rains came on Tuesday. However we did not foresee the rest of the turf events including the John’s Call stakes, also coming off and the steeplechase race being cancelled, leading to a first post of 1:39. The weather looks fine the next two day but Friday’s forecast is calling for a 50% chance of scattered thunder storms throughout the afternoon before giving way to ideal conditions Saturday.

🆘 I spent a good part of the day racking my brain trying to come up with a worse stakes race than the 2022 John’s Call. Not just a Saratoga stakes but a major track stakes period, and honestly I can’t imagine there was one that was worse. It was a pretty soft group on the turf; on dirt, it was an abomination in 2:06.34. Somehow Tide of the Sea, who simply wasn’t terrible in his last, an off the turf opt 62500, was sent off at even money. Under JJ Castellano he opened a long lead despite still setting pokey fractions (50.86 - 1:16.08) yet the field caught him after going 7f. Supposedly on the FS1 show, Castellano was criticized for going “too slow” which seems laughable considering that he was about 5 lengths clear of the field down the backside. The truth is that he wasn’t very good last time (when he went 47.3 -1:12.2 on a sloppy track) and ran similar race today. In the end, Girl Dad outgamed stablemate Bluegrass Parkway down the stretch to become a Saratoga stakes winner, spoiling his NW3 claiming eligibility. Kudos to trainer Maker for being savvy enough to enter in here, picking up $74,259 after being claimed for $35,000 last out. Interesting fact: the order of finish by program number was 1-2-3-4-5.

🅱️ Plan B for the steeplechase set as the MG Walsh Novice stakes has been rescheduled (and will be redrawn) for next Thursday after being canceled today.

🎪 Gambling Girl had a pair of decent prior starts, 4th and 3rd, beaten about 6 lengths in both which translated into even money on the morning line. Sent off at 6/5, she made that look like a bargain, crushing this group of NYB maiden 2yo fillies by 10 1/2 lengths, eased up by Irad Ortiz at the end. Pletcher trains the daughter of Dialed In for Repole Stables. August Moon took steady money for her debut, going off at 5/2, but never doing much running and finishing last after veering in at the start.

🎪 Eddie Barker got off the duck 🦆 in the 4th when his Cathedral Beach rallied after stumbling at the start to run down pace setter Never Early in the final strides. Barker claimed the winner for $16000 last out, raising the Gormley gelding in class to this straight 3 year old $32000 claimer going 7 furlongs. Cathedral Beach was claimed out of this by Natalia Lynch for Ken Ramsey. Zen Master was tagged as well but that claim was voided.

🎪 Roderick was just better than his rivals when taking the 5th for the blazing Phil Bauer. The Into Mischief gelding stalked the pace throughout in this $50000 NW3 race, grabbed the lead at the quarter pole and held well under an energetic Junior Alvarado ride at 3/5. Bauer now has 5 wins from 8 starts at the meet. Roderick was claimed by Mike Maker.

🎪 Under Oath set fast fractions winning the off the turf NW1x allowance going 5.5 furlongs on the main track at 3/5. Pletcher win number two on the day.

🎪 Pletcher won his third when The Prince’s Spur drew off to win the 7th, a maiden $40000 going a mile out of the Wilson chute, the race originally scheduled to be run on the grass. The winner was claimed by Phil Bauer, not letting that Roderick money stay idle too long.

🎪 Mount Travers broke up the chalk-fest winning the 8th at 6/1 for the eye chart guy, Mertkan Kantarmaci and jockey Eric Cancel. The $25000 claiming race saw four horses claimed though the winner escaped being taken and the claim on Lil Commissioner was voided for what was called ‘Administrative’.

🧮 Handle was only $9,450,553 and the announced attendance was 24,448 though many were reportedly wearing invisible person costumes.

⚖️ Irad Ortiz and Joel Rosario were each given 3 day suspensions to take place at before the end of the meet. I wonder if the NYSGC books them a room for three days at the Sagamore Resort as well?

😵‍💫 If you are of sound mind and spirit, do yourself a favor and don’t tune into the Medina Spirit hearing currently taking place in Kentucky. Listening to the tedious testimony, which seems completely pointless at this stage of the game, will make you immediately regret it.

👨🏼‍🎨 Art Collector shoots for his second consecutive $1,000,000 Charlestown Classic (Gr II) Friday night in West Virginia. Luis Saez will be in for the mount. Mind Control looms as the main danger under John Velazquez who is sitting on 999 wins at Saratoga.

Day 31 (9 racing days to go)

Riskaverse (Listed) ®️ $135,000 1 mile turf 3yo f

1. Missy Greer - set slow pace in NW1x allowance back on July 30, drifting out and bumping foe hard in deep stretch. Tough to imagine her improving enough to be a factor here

2. Republique - 2021 Preakness winner Rombauer’s sister, she tried the Delaware Oaks after two wins over GP’s fake dirt to start her career, earlier this year. Her dirt attempt didn’t go so well so she shifts to grass here with a series of decent works over the sod. Should get trip behind early pacesetters and may be worth using if the price is right.

3. Skims (GB) - drops in class after three decent tries against graded stakes fillies. Is a bit one-paced but if a above average pace develops here it will fit her grinding style. David Aragona sets the best morning lines in the business but he may have made her a little longer than I believe she will be at 9/2.

4. Linda’s Gift - George Weaver trainee got unlucky with a tough pace scenario in last as she was at the back of the pack behind glacial fractions. Has finished behind many of these but was close enough that any improvement gives her a shot at a huge price.

5. Canisy - scratched from the much rougher Lake Placid on Saturday for this spot. Has three starts and ran well in all. Seems to have some versatility as she won on the lead last out after coming from off the pace in her first two. Cuts back from 9 furlongs to 8 but seems handy enough that shouldn’t make a difference. Logical contender

6. Customer List (Fr) - three starts, three slow starts. Broke maiden at Monmouth last fall in only start but ran awful in Penn Oaks (L) over soft course at Penn National in 2022 debut. Improved effort last out in same allowance race that Canisy won after a tardy start. Breaking better might give her a boost in this really evenly matched group.

7. Gina Romantica - pricey Into Mischief filly makes turf debut for Brown/Brant after even effort in the Wilton stakes here on opening day going a mile on the dirt. Brown isn’t particularly strong when moving from dirt to turf (14%) and it’s hard to muster up a lot of enthusiasm for her here.

8. Spirit And Glory (Ire) - won a bizarre allowance race (fractions 26 - 52) back in June with a strong late rally in her US debut. Didn’t show much in Lake George (Gr III) last out but if the pace heats up she might come running for a piece.

9. Faith in Humanity (Fr) - another of the never ending Brownie’s with European pedigrees. This Lope de Vega filly broke her maiden in her only start at Monmouth on July 24. She showed early foot in that race though that course plays more to speed than this one. Steps up to restricted stakes company in initial try against winners which is always a big step. Might be part of the pace but looking elsewhere unless she is about 30-1.

10. A Mo Reay - another non-turf horse making grass debut. Has a decent allowance win at Laurel on June 10 sandwiched by two dismal efforts including her latest in the opening day Wilton when she was never a factor, beaten 28 lengths. Hard to recommend though she should add to the pace intrigue

11. Wonka - no chocolate factory or Willy here. Will need to workout trip from outside post, though she has shown some tactical ability in both her two turn races. So many of these look to have similar form and this daughter of Twirling Candy is yet another lightly raced filly that needs a trip to differentiate herself in here.

📽Riskaverse winning two big stakes during her illustrious career!