BAQ to the future or Weekend Stakes Preview

Real Writing On Racing 💯

With Saratoga, Del Mar and Kentucky Downs in our rear view mirrors, the racing spotlight now falls on a turf-less Churchill Downs, an Elmont-less Belmont (aka BAQ) and for this weekend, a stakes-laden Woodbine. We will preview a bunch of races today, not all the stakes at those three locales, but still a plethora of the last “official” summer stakes of the season. We also have observations and comments on some of the pertinent news of the day along with some other musings.

♦️ Admittedly Gulfstream has been off our radar for most of the summer but happen to tune in briefly today and saw a two year old filly destroy a MSW by better than 14 lengths in the 7th. Infinite Diamond, who trainer Patrick Biancone plucked out of the April OBS 2yo sale for the Diamond 100 Racing Club for $120k, had started twice before, a troubled trip 2nd back in June at GP and most recently was a decent 4th in California, behind subsequent Del Mar Debutante winner, Tell Me Nolies. The filly by Bee Jersey (stands at Darby Dan for 5k) showed speed from the start with blinkers added today, opening a clear advantage around the turn on the mile race, widened throughout the stretch and was 14 1/2 lengths clear at the wire, the mile time 1:36.82 very good for 2 year old fillies in September. I don’t know what the quality of the field she beat was, but she looked really good doing it.

🏆 We have been quite vocal about what we perceived as flaws in the Kentucky Derby point system, for about as long as it’s been around. Our chief complaint has been that many of the early season 3 year old preps are severely undervalued, 10 points to the winner versus the last round preps, only weeks later, which are awarding 100. Friday afternoon, Churchill Downs announced a few tweaks to the system including adding points to the races that we have been preaching about. Important prep races like the Southwest at Oaklawn, Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Withers at Aqueduct, Bob Lewis at Santa Anita, Lecomte at FG and Sam Davis at Tampa all saw increases under the new system. Along with making the point distribution more equitable, the other residual affect that we had lobbied for with this change, is trying to counter the troubling trend towards fewer starts for Derby entrants. Our position was making these races more attractive, will hopefully get more three year olds to enter earlier, building more foundation along the way. Barry and I spoke about this topic at length several times on the Big Monday podcast during both the 2021 and 2022 Derby trail season and are excited to see that Churchill Downs has made these changes 👏🏼

From Bloodhorse article about the changes to the KY Derby point system.

👏🏼 Veteran Jockey Ry Eikleberry announced that his mounts tonight at Canterbury Downs will be his final ones as he is stepping away after a solid career in the Midwest. Going into tonight’s races he has 2564 wins from 14870 starts and earnings of $45,643,118. You might remember him as the rider of Sleepy Eyes Todd in last years Charles Town Classic when he ran second to Art Collector.

👎🏼 Friday night it was announced that 2022 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal has been retired and was entering stud in 2023 at Spendthrift Farm for a fee of $20,000. The new stallion ranks will be bursting at the seams next spring with Life is Good, likely Flightline, Jackie’s Warrior, Mandaloun, perhaps Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, Happy Saver, Olympiad, First Captain, Early Voting… and I’m sure others joining them. Tail wags dog continues…

🍜 word about town is that the land that iconic Saratoga restaurant Pennells sits on has been sold and the eatery which first opened in 1922 (2 years after Upest beat Man O’ War at the Spa) is in its last days. I didn’t include it on my Saratoga top 25 (Click here to see) as it’s on everyone’s lists and I was trying to focus on some new spots, but I now wish I had, it has always been great place. Will be sad to see it go.

Jockey Club Oaks Inv Gr III $700,000 11f turf 3yo fillies

1. McKulick (GB) - looms as a odds on favorite coming out of a good effort against With the Moonlight (Ire) going shorter. Runs good figs but not overwhelmingly good as her odds may suggest. She can certainly win but we will likely try to beat her.

2. Nostalgic - she was an improving filly coming into the KY Oaks but wasn’t up to the task and subsequently was mauled by Nest in her last two. Switched to the grass for Mott, she didn’t do much running in her only start on the weeds at GP this spring. Gets Saez and if you are willing to give her another try, you’ll be likely getting a nice price.

3. Canisy - has never run remotely fast enough to compete here. Not for me.

4. Toskana Belle (Fr) - dangerous Euro shipper won the grade I German Oaks last out at this same distance at Düsseldorf. Has won three of five lifetime, trained by top German trainer Wohler and gets Dettori. A lot to like if close to 7-2 morning line.

5. Miss Yearwood - classy filly charged from the back of the pack to win her one and only grass start, last time at Ellis Park in an allowance race. Broke her maiden going 10 furlongs on the dirt, should be able to handle the distance and seemed to like grass just fine. Huge class jump and likely to be overlooked but if the pace is adequate (always a question mark in a NYRA turf race), she will be closing late, maybe getting a piece at a price.

6. Beside Herself - has three wins, all of them were achieved in a wire to wire fashion. Last out beat NW2x allowance fillies at Saratoga going 12 furlongs, meaning she is actually cutting back today unlike most everyone else. Ran fastest TG of the group in that race and if she can control the pace, might be able to wire them but her form prior to her last wasn’t good enough. Tough call.

J Club Derby Inv Gr I $1,000,000 12f BAQ turf 3yo

1. Classic Causeway - thriving as a turf marathoner for McPeek, seems likely to be the pacesetter in this short field. Lastest effort was flattered when Annapolis came back to gallop in the Saranac (Gr III) (yeah I know it was a terrible field but he was running against the clock and still went fast). Switches to Prat today, the one to catch.

2. Wicked Fast - here is a twist on the old saying…”If I’m on the invite list for a party, is that really a party you want to attend?”. Rare are horses that were claimed out of 35000nw3L races invited to million dollar grade I races but I suppose he is better than an empty starting gate stall. Not that much better but here we are.

3. Nation’s Pride - I’m guessing that he will be the post time favorite here and to be fair he is probably the best horse of the ones that we know. However he did run poorly his only try at this trip and today’s jock Dettori, while an all-time great, didn’t ride him well last time he had the mount and losing Buick isn’t a positive. Sure he is the most likely winner and Appleby has mind-boggling US stats the last two years, but he isn’t unbeatable.

4. The Grey Wizard - tough task for this gelding who has very little early speed.

5. Daunt - good guy Bob Ribaudo takes a shot to try to get a piece of the big pie. Had two consecutive ‘no shot’ trips in Saratoga allowances but still faces steep class hike here. Hard to believe that of all the illustrious training operations that base in NY, the only trainer to enter a runner in this spot is Ribaudo. Foundational issues clearly exist…but you can’t solve problems until you admit they exist.

6. Ardakan (GB) - exits good effort against older in German Grade I after having won the Italian Derby (Gr II) earlier this spring. Seems to have versatile running style and the distance is well within his scope as he is a regular at 12 furlongs. His foreign TG’s are good and improving. He is a big player here.

Open Mind (Listed) $300,000 6f CD dirt 3&up F/M

1. Sconsin - classy filly won this race a year ago over her longtime rival Bell’s the One, came back this year in good form but threw in a clunker last time out. Gets the rail today, if the field stays intact, should get pace to run into and looms as dangerous as she always is at Churchill as she looks to clear the million dollar earnings mark today.

2. Joyful Cadence - speedy filly almost wired them in her last but has to deal with the presence of Cheetara (Chi) in here. If one of the two main speeds were to scratch, the other would be dangerous but with both in here, it’s difficult to see either shaking loose, while still preserving enough energy to hold off the stout late closers.

3. Cheetara (Chi) - see above. Same theory.

4. Bell’s the One - amazing stat about this six year old mare, she is 8 for 9 lifetime going 6 furlongs (with one second) which considering her running style as a closing sprinter is nuts. Always a threat, flip a coin between her at Sconsin though her TG’s have been slightly slower this season.

5. Club Car - hard knocking filly is always in with a chance though she often teases far more often than getting her picture taken. Figures to sit in the garden seat here, getting the jump on the two favorites but her record at 6f is 17-2-11-2 and lifetime is 28-5-13-5 which is a “yikes” type of stat if you are considering using her on top.

Locust Grove Gr III $400,000 8.5f CD dirt 3&up F/M

1. Gold Spirit (Chi) - lands in the Pletcher barn after previously being trained by Brown. Makes season debut as she hasn’t run since October of 2021. Interesting that she has spent the summer training at Churchill after being based in NY with her previous trainer. Figures to sit a good trip under Gafflione and if she is around 6-1 we are going to tab her to spring the minor upset.

2. Envoutante - talented Uncle Mo filly is fastest in here on her best, however her best doesn’t appear often. Was likely a touch short in latest at the Spa, setting quick pace going 9f but this spot seems to be ripe for lively early fractions as well. We like her more than the other McPeek filly here but will try to beat her.

3. Crazy Beautiful - ran representative races against the top of the class her last two but really isn’t much better as a 4 year old than she was as a three year old. We will look to play against her once again.

4. Li’l Tootsie - is in excellent form, looking for three in a row but from TG angle, she always seems to react from running TG 2 and she ran that last out. Part of a what should be strong pace, we can’t forget her last two turn race which was pretty terrible.

5. Played Hard - Bauer had bang up Saratoga meet and this filly was much improved in her only Spa start than pervious form. Also figures to be up close early, we will fade her Saratoga form and play against.

6. Princess of Cairo - seems overmatched

Iroquois Gr III $300,000 8.5f CD dirt 3yo’s (KY DERBY points qualifier)

• This race seems to boil down to a showdown between the ultra impressive Damon’s Mound and the huge first out winner Echo Again with some other impressive maiden winners sprinkled in. Damon’s Mound has been a very easy winner of both starts, coming from off the pace and showing a devastating turn of foot, easily besting the competition in his first two career starts including the Saratoga Special (Gr II) last out. Running TG of 4 both times makes him faster at this point than most of last years early season three year olds on the Derby trail. Yes both were sprints but trainer Michele Lovell isn’t one whose horses peak early and sire, the surprising Girvin, was better going two turns as well. Echo Again showed high speed in his only start in a MSW a at Saratoga, shrugging off a good field and winning easily. Stretching out to 8.5f in start number two isn’t an easy task but from the outside post it will be interesting to see if Rosario commits to the lead or if he looks to track one of the other potential pacesetters. Curly Jack ran a big one when just missing in Ellis Park Juvy, changing tactics after showing early speed in his first two starts. Can he compete successfully against this level of competition is the question. Ordinarily a horse like Jace’s Road would be one to seriously consider in this spot but he needs to improve quite a bit and you aren’t getting the price that you should be getting. Everyone else looks like they are competing for 5th and that single KY Derby point.

Louisville Thoroughbred Society $275,000 6f CD dirt 3&up

• It still hurts to watch Miles Ahead get beat a neck in the Kelly’s Landing to Aloha West at 15-1 as if he were to have won that photo, I would be writing this from my yacht in Tahiti. However I am going right back to the Miles Ahead well as this race should set up well for him and the 77 days since that painful race should be plenty to have him ready to run a big one again. Fading Isolate as he was gifted a loose lead on an inside track at the Spa in his latest, should get pressured, Rosario and Amoss are 0 for 8 and he figures to be way overbet. I will be using Manny Wah and A.C. Expressway and possibly Necker Island underneath.

Pocahontas Gr III $300,000 8.5f CD dirt 3yo fillies (KY OAK points qualifier)

• Grand Love didn’t get as much notoriety as Asmussen’s colt Saratoga maiden breakers but she was impressive in her own right and is the one to beat here stretching out. Naughty Girl was cruising along on the lead in the Spinaway (Gr I) a couple weeks back till she pitched an anchor and stopped. This was after she finished in the 12 path when winning the Adirondack (Gr III) her previous start (and her jock that day opted off of her in her next start). I don’t know why Wayne is running back so quick but she may serve to set the pace and fade once again. Outofnothingatall may need air supply mid-stretch, but ran decent in Sorority at MTH and this isn’t a stellar group, at a huge price (30-1 ML) she can get on the board from the people that brought you Un Ojo.

Summer Stakes Gr I $500,000 1 mile Turf Woodbine 2yo

• This race goes through the big favorite, Mysterious Night (Ire), another Appleby/Godolphin/Buick runner that appears a couple lengths better on form than these. I have nothing clever to add as Appraise(Ire) and Phillip My Dear appear to be the best of the rest.

Woodbine Mile Gr I $1,000,000 1 mile turf Woodbine 3&up

• I realize that weights aren’t looked at as nearly as important as they once were but the weight scale for this race is terrible. Modern Games is going to be the favorite for the same connections that routinely crush our domestic horses. Last seen on these shores on Breeders Cup Friday when the racing officials disgracefully bungled the entire affair. He ran well last out when second to the great Baaeed at glorious Goodwood, but we are going to try to beat him here. If Emma Jane can steer clear of trouble (or basically do the opposite of her last ride on this horse) we think Shirl’s Speight can pull off the upset at a long price. Others with legit shots are Ivar (Brz), Finest Sound (Ire) and Homer Screen (Brz). Lots of pace here and that could lead to a wild stretch run.