Win and you lose?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

This week we have the bi-coastal versions of Breeders Cup Preview days and Churchill has a WAYI race and a quasi Classic prep, though they are mostly watered down contests with more pretenders than contenders. Nonetheless there are a lot of relatively interesting stakes contests for us to ponder, which is never a bad thing. The Baqueduct card has been moved to Sunday because of the huge rain storm Friday in NYC with the original Sunday card transferred to Wednesday leaving Churchill and Santa Anita to hold down the fort with the stakes action today.

One of the many downsides to modern racing is an increasing aversion to competition and actually racing racehorses with the “training up to _________” methods spreading despite it’s relatively unsuccessful track record for the biggest events like the Breeders Cup and Kentucky Derby. Star horses won’t save the sport but the lack of them in races of consequence clearly degrades it, especially for the veterans of the game who remember far better days. The demise of the Fall racing schedule outside of the two Breeders Cup days is a symptom of the philosophy that owning horses is supposed to be “an experience” more than a challenge. The Breeders Cup ‘Win and your In’ program takes away incentive for the earlier winners to race in the preps past the summer, effectively throwing dirt on the very program meant to showcase the best horses leading up to the championships events. Everyone carries on about ‘all hands on deck’ and needing to create positive change and all the neat little quotes that emanate from yet another superfluous industry cocktail party…but I’m not sure if a great deal of the suit crew even realizes where to even begin.

🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Awesome Again from Santa Anita Here.

⚖️ Paco got Paco’ed by the Parx Stewards which seems like a deserved penalty for blowing second in last Saturdays Greenwood Cup (Gr II). And the answer is an emphatic “NO!” to the question of whether or not that races winner, Next, should run in the BC Classic.

🇫🇷 The Prix Dollar (Gr II) is held this morning at Longchamp with recent Kentucky Downs stakes winner Ancient Rome among the runners.

🇬🇧 Across the channel at Newmarket in the UK, a trio of group stakes for two year olds surely will produce a handful of contestants for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf races.

🇬🇧 This piece here talks more in-depth about the Juddmonte Royal Lodge stakes runners while this one from TDN Europe gives a ton of info about today’s race in both the UK and France

🇯🇵 Read about a potential major contender for the Breeeders Cup Classic from the Land of the Rising Sun who crushed in his prep race earlier this week Here.

💰 The Going in Circles Digest Video play of the day has returned and ‘the Sniper’ Barry Spears looks westward for this weekends selection 💵

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Woodward (Gr II) $400,000 3&up 9 furlongs BAQ

1. Charge It - Tapit colt makes his 7th start of the year and it’s still difficult to say with any certainty where he sits among the older division rankings or even what running style he prefers. Disappointed in the slow paced Whitney (Gr I) after racing on the lead for most of the 10 furlongs of the Suburban (Gr II) before that. Hard to figure what we will get but this isn’t a great bunch and on his best he can win but…

2. Law Professor - threw a scare into heavily favored Life is Good in this race last year but has been idle since a non-effort in May in the Pimlico Special after stumbling at the start. Atras has been on an extended frigid streak at NYRA tracks with his last winner coming on July 22 and sporting a 1-41 record since the end of the Belmont Spring meet, pretty wild for a trainer with a 21% lifetime mark. The gelded son of Constitution has a excellent record of 3-2-1-0 over the Aqueduct surface and his best shot is very competitive against this group, yet it’s hard to expect that to happen considering his conditioners recent struggles.

3. Algiers - the mystery middle-eastern shipper comes into this off of a long layoff though his last was an excellent second place finish in the Dubai World Cup to Japanese star Ushba Tesoro. Trainer Simon Crisford, who was the longtime racing manager for Godolphin before setting off to train a decade ago, has won at a 20% clip, names William Buick to ride which is never a bad thing. It’s difficult to determine what price would be a fair one for Algiers but this is not a particularly strong race and if he can handle the tighter turns and an American dirt surface you’d have to believe he has a chance here.

4. Zandon - Amazing that he is still eligible for a nw2x allowance race as we enter the fall of his 4 year old season. Has been announced as going to stud at Spendthrift Farm, most likely next season, and desperately needs a signature win beyond his score in the Bluegrass Stakes (Gr I) which seems like it was a long time ago. The son of Upstart has raced three times this season with three second place finishes, though relatively well beaten in all, yet he gets good TG figs because he is always wide and losing ground. Has one race on a track labeled something other than fast which was last year’s Cigar Mile (Gr I) over this surface and resulted in his only off the board finish when 4th. As I’m sure that I have said in prior previews, he can win but you are wagering on that to happen at your own risk.

5. Pipeline - Now entered in his second curious spot after a long layoff following bombing in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile last fall. Nine furlongs always seemed to be a touch further than he wanted to go though he does have early speed which might be helpful to ensure a quick pace for his barnmate Zandon’s chances.

6. Costa Terra - was a sharp claim for $75000 this spring by Linda Rice for whom he has improved by finding off-the-turf distance races that play well to his stamina being by Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare. That said despite the upward trend in his performance and figures he has also managed to get beat in allowances in his last two and this is a step up in class obviously. There appears to be plenty of speed/early pace in here which will play well for his running style of making one run but it remains to be seen if he is simply good enough.

7. Un Ojo - Rice didn’t claim this one but makes his initial NY start for her after a wide trip runner up spot in a minor stakes at Pimlico in his first start for the barn. Has some early speed and I suppose this could be a prep for the Empire Classic for NY breds on October 29th, otherwise I have no idea what he is in here for.

8. Tyson - Canadian shipper ran well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after a bit of trouble at the start. Cuts back in distance but does figure to get a nice stalking trip if the expected early runners set what should be a quick early pace (no guarantees though). Carroll is an excellent trainer and the lightly raced son of Tapit has to be considered here.

9. O’ Connor (Chi) - late running Chilean import piled up some earnings when second in the rich Charlestown Classic (Gr II) to his stablemate, passing most of the field in the process. Handles wet tracks and is another that would benefit from a fast early pace, gets Irad and is an interesting horse to hit the board at a price in a less than stellar version of the Woodward.

10. Film Star - the 3rd part of the uncoupled Linda Rice trio, the Flatter colt does his best running on the front end and drawing the outside post forces Jose Ortiz’ hand as I’d expect him to be sending right from the gate. Wheels back in 13 days with the move to Sunday meaning he avoids running three times in September which isn’t something you see too often these days.

Turf Classic (Gr I) $500,000 3&up 1 1/2 turf BAQ

1. Grand Sonata - as I write this race preview the news is reporting that Ozone Park has received close to eight inches of rain in the last 24 hours meaning that the course Sunday will be soft though with about 36 hours to dry out a bit. That said it’s unlikely that the condition of the turf will matter much to this guy as he has never run any races remotely good enough to be a big factor here.

2. Soldier Rising (GB) - put in a nice run to be a clean second best behind Bolshoi Boy in the Sword Dancer (Gr I) last month at the Spa over a yielding course. He has run fast enough to win this though with his one run closing style he needs some pace and good fortune with the trip to get the job done. Is 3-0-0-1 at Aqueduct but has put in some decent efforts there. Pace figures to be moderate at best which doesn’t help but he does like soft courses

3. Stone Age (Ire) - prompted the pace in the Sword Dancer before fading in the lane as the 2-1 favorite. Switches to Irad for this and will likely be aiming for a more reserved trip though this guy is 2 for 16 lifetime, he doesn’t get to the wire in front too often.

4. Adhamo (Ire) - ran a big race in his season debut in the Arlington Million at Colonial 50 days ago, earning a lifetime top TG of 2.25 when finishing 3rd after rallying from the back of the pack. Didn’t do much running in his only Aqueduct start but was also off 9 months after that race so perhaps something went awry. Rates an upset chance if he can duplicate that initial 5 year old effort.

5. Rebel’s Romance (Ire) - turf form was perfect coming into 2023 with his 5th consecutive graded stakes win in last years Breeders Cup turf (defeating Stone Age and War Like Goddess) but got anahilated in Dubai by the worlds best horse, before taking a tumble when likely making the winning move in the Bowling Green (Gr II) at the Spa in his last. Is the class of the field, gets Bill Buick to pilot and Appleby has been back to his winning ways lately but you are taking a short price on a horse that hasn’t run great in 11 months so tread lightly perhaps.

6. War Like Goddess - hard to describe the absolute debacle of a race that she exits (Video replay here), the second consecutive year that she had a rough time in a Saratoga stakes. Changes from Rosario to Alvarado for this race which she won last year before finishing third in the BC Turf against the boys. A threat on her best, especially if she isn’t rank for the new rider.

7. So High (GB) - a pace factor only.

8. Pioneering Spirit - has morphed into a stakes horse since being haltered by Linda Rice out of a maiden $40000 race this spring and eventually moved to the grass. Took down the Bernard Baruch last out in gritty effort though in his initial graded stakes venture in the Sword Dancer he got dusted in the stretch by Soldier Rising (GB) on a yielding turf. Tested for class quite literally in here.

9. Astronaut - odd horse who has spent his whole career running really well or terrible with almost no in between. Ran nicely in this spot last year when 3rd but has only raced once this year back in March when 10th at GP in a grade II. No idea what to expect but I’d lean against rather than for.

Ack Ack (Gr III) $400,000 3&up 1 Mile dirt CD

1. Seize the Night - Jade Cunningham, longtime assistant trainer/ex rider for Wayne Lukas and Dallas Stewart makes her stakes debut with this 4yo gelding by Carpe Diem, who was most recently 3rd in the RA Cowboy Jones stakes at Ellis going a mile. He doesn’t have much early speed and this race doesn’t have much either outside of Zozos which hurts his chances to win but with a clean trip he could sneak on the board at a big price.

2. O Besos - only his second trip postward this year after a good effort when second off the bench in the Jeff Hall Memorial at Ellis in July. Gafflione back in the fold and trainer Foley is off to a good start at Churchill. Will be running at the end.

3. Three Technique - Jason Cook has done excellent work with the Mr Speaker gelding who he claimed for $40000 back in November of 2021. Three Technique comes into this on a two race winning streak, last seen scoring in the John Nerud (Gr II) at 7f on the Belmont Stakes undercard. He has done good work over the main track at Churchill with a record of 8-2-2-2 including winning the Knicks Go overnight stakes last May. Another one who needs a clean trip for his best but should be finishing strong. Don’t sweat the Technique!

4. Stage Raider - upset the RA Cowboy Jones at 19-1 in his first start for Cherie Devaux. Has more early foot than most in here and Hernandez will likely not let Zozos get too far out of range going down the backside, looking to take the race to him at the quarter pole and see if he can out-finish the likely favorite.

5. Zozos - looks like he will be loose on the lead in here without much other early speed signed on. Was rushed into the Kentucky Derby last year and missed the rest of the season and looked like he was going to be a potential player in a weak older horse division this year. Cox unsuccessfully tried to stretch him out once again at Monmouth in the Iselin last out but turns him back to the one turn mile after having had won a pair of those races this spring/summer. Clearly the one to beat and betting against Brad Cox favorites in Kentucky usually doesn’t work out well but I will admit that I will likely try to beat him here unless the track is just a total speed highway.

6. Skyro - won an allowance race over this track at this distance last July 4th (2022) but will need to improve off of that effort to be a factor here. Does have a bit of natural early speed and might be able to get a good trip stalking the favorite from the outside but seems more like Lynch is just taking a shot here with the gelding who hasn’t been seen since chasing Wolfie’s Dynaghost on the tapioca on Pegasus day at Gulfstream last winter.

7. Caddo River - had immediate success when transferred from Brad Cox to Lukas this winter at Oaklawn, knocking off an allowance race before running second in the Oaklawn Mile (Gr III). Yet he has been awful last two time, first bombing in the Knicks Go behind Zozos and then chasing and quitting in a tough grass allowance. Not sure what to expect here but whatever it is, he will not be carrying my monetary support.

Awesome Again (Gr I) $300,000 3&up 1 1/8 dirt SA

1. Senor Buscador - it was a bit astonishing when I looked over the field for the last west coast prep for the Breeders Cup Classic and found that none of them run remotely fast enough to win the race November 4. Just about 10 days ago it was announced that Senor Buscador would be training up to the Breeders Cup Classic which was a surprise considering a) he was passing on graded stakes that he could be competitive in as he is a 5yo with 13 career starts and 2 graded stakes victories and b) he was pointing to the Breeders Cup Classic! If he was going to compete in the Breeders Cup the Dirt Mile seemed to be the better option even though he got thumped in there last year, it was over an east coast track that doesn’t exactly play to his closing style. For whatever reason the connections went ahead and entered here and honestly he looks like he could be pretty live in this spot as expected. There should be enough speed to give his late run a chance and running TG’s of 0 are (amazingly!) easily enough good enough to beat these. Not usually a fan of playing horses that are tricky to ride when employing a jock that wins only 7% in route races but Fincher is a good trainer and this is not a good field. It would be a shame if they scratch.

2. Defunded - Perhaps an example of some of Baffert’s finest work as a horse with a nice resume of accomplishments that has never run a particularly fast figure…ever. The gelding by Dialed In has four graded stakes wins to his credit, two of them of the Grade 1 variety good for earnings of in excess of $1,600,000…yet his fastest TG is a 1 which Flightline would have gotten while warning up for the race in the post parade. That said his last two haven’t been good and regular jock Hernandez lands on the ‘other Baffert’ National Treasure, who isn’t exactly making Bob forget about Captain Steve.

3. Slow Down Andy - a check getting type that has two stakes wins to his credit, one at Sunland Park and the other a pokey Del Mar Derby on the turf in his only grass start. Figures to get a good trip but he usually does and while he can certainly win this, it’s hard to be super enthusiastic about making him a strong play especially at the 5-2 morning line

4. Skinner - has not lived up to the spring hype and hasn’t thus far progressed much as he’s still running 4 TG’s which he was back in February. Still eligible for an entry level allowance race and maybe he will one day put it all together and run a huge race but I’m willing to watch till he does.

5. Bye Bye Bobby - not often do you see SunRay Park shippers to Del Mar contest the pace going 12 furlongs in a Grade III stakes and follow that up by rallying from last to just miss when second in the Pat O’ Brien (Gr II) at 7f. From $870,000 Keeneland yearling to spending most of his career in New Mexico to trying to “qualify” for the Breeders Cup Classic…I don’t think he will win but he sure has had an interesting journey.

6. Celestial Moon - appreciate when guys take shots with horses without many conditions and this is a ‘shot worthy spot’…but he would appear to be overmatched.

7. National Treasure - I have urged people to bet against him in every race this year and was only wrong once…and we aren’t stopping now.

8. Piroli- big fans of McCarthy and this guy has come a long way since a voided claim in a Maiden $50,000 last November retroactively rescued them but he seems like he’d be tough to recommend in here.

9. Stilleto Boy - comes out of the Pacific Classic where he hit the gate and was eased and ultimately pulled up by Kent Desormeaux. Trainer Moger hasn’t found any lingering issues and has stated that they weren’t originally pointing here but the gelding trained so well that they decided to take a shot but I will pass.