Who wants the smoke?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

We didn’t do a Belmont Stakes weekend preview last weekend, a rarity for a major racing event, however we are going to do a quick recap of the craziness of the 10 days or so.

😶‍🌫️ After the uncertainty of the pre-Belmont Stakes Wednesdays bizarre NYC metro area smoke out, we traveled down to the big Apple on Thursday afternoon, arriving in time still be able to breathe in the remnants of haze from the day before. Clearly NYRA officials with some prodding from the Governor’s office made the right call to cancel that days card and transfer the stakes races to Sunday afternoon’s schedule.

🏒 I spent most of Friday and Saturday afternoon at Belmont, the first time I have been there in several years, way before the hockey arena was built and getting off of the Cross Island Parkway sure looks different. However it really doesn’t affect the racing experience in any fashion, the closest I got to it was when frequenting the food truck section (👍🏼👍🏼 two thumbs up for Jiannetto’s Pizza which was a Secretariat’s Belmont length distance better than the atrocious Belmont food stand pizza). The old second floor hangout is now a private room, the first floor is stuck in the 1990’s and to be honest, the makeover can’t come soon enough.

🌹🦀🍎 The Belmont capped off a tumultuous 2023 Triple Crown season that bookended a couple of compelling storylines around an insipid Preakness, yet the lasting image might very well be the exasperation painted on Mike Repole’s face Kentucky Derby morn when Forte was scratched by the KHRC veterinarian. Despite the trials and travails of the last few months, it continues to amaze me that so many want to change by far the most popular and wildly successful series of American thoroughbred racing. Perhaps that thought process can be enlightening for those looking for clues as to why racing has declined in most metrics over the last decade or so.

⭐️ Arcangelo is the latest lightly-raced, potential star three year old to emerge this Spring with his strong sustained move getting the job done in the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Jena Antonucci is getting more attention as the first female Triple Crown race winning trainer than she is for doing an outstanding job with the ridgling son of Arrogate. I was skeptical about his chances of winning a pretty decent version of the Belmont in his first two turn race, jumping up three furlongs from his Peter Pan win. However he did get the job done under a heady ride from a resurgent Javier Castellano, the third jockey milestone victory this Triple Crown season, after his own initial Derby win and Johnny Velazquez’ first Preakness win a few weeks back. Arcangelo has a far better pedigree than you’d typically see from a $35000 yearling purchase but X-ray issues depressed the price and his connections look brilliant now for rolling the dice. His speed figures were quickly solid after his first start sprinting (I actually checked with ‘the Time Lord’ Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS after his maiden win at Gulfstream on March 18 to see if the 1:34.4 time of the race was accurate, which he confirmed was) and he has rapidly shot up the list of contenders (we have one below!) for the title of leading three year old.

⭐️ Forte did well to be second though his grinding style through a slow last quarter mile didn’t inspire much praise. He was asked to overcome having the rug pulled out from underneath his bruised hoof 5 weeks earlier when primed to run. Then he had to weave through the red tape gauntlet of regulation veterinarian procedures just to get removed from the ‘no-fly list’. When Forte stumbled again during training hours it triggered a brigade of armchair, social media trainers to fret that he was ‘not right’. Meanwhile his actual conditioner, Mr Pletcher, had to spend time dealing with a quagmire of his own, a slew of medication violations aside from the controversial bad test from Forte’s Hopeful Stakes. None were illegal or nefarious drugs of course but it is an unprecedented volume of positives over a relatively short period of time for a barn well-known for its clinical efficiency. Mike Repole’s Belmont week screed using the well-worn ‘we need a commissioner’ playbook also came with a veiled threat that he could ‘exit stage left’ if changes weren’t made, which sorta killed any Forte ‘good-feelings’ vibe that existed. Hey Mike welcome to the “We are frustrated enough at racing dysfunction to walk away” party…your name is now on the list and the dress code is casual. It’s a BYOB affair and we are skeptical about you showing up…but if you wanna talk, we are here for ya!

🗽 Clairiere came through again like she usually does. Secret Oath didn’t fire and to be honest that is a concern to me. Big Invasion and Casa Creed ran great as usual but Caravel has become a turf sprinting icon at age 6. Arabian Lion just may wind up being the top Baffert 3 year old, a thought which would have been inconceivable earlier this year. Cody’s Wish and Elite Power would be ranked number one and two on the Going in Circles Digest older horse power rankings (if they existed) and it’s interesting that not only are they both trained by Bill Mott, they are both by Curlin yet neither one runs long. Hopefully the connections of Cody’s Wish take a shot at the Whitney Stakes, he wasn’t that successful trying 9f earlier in his career, but he is on a whole different level these days and the competition is historically soft….and Elite Power is gonna beat him if they face off in the Forego (🔥Hot Take Alert). In Italian (GB) started off last year as somewhat of a pacesetter for her more accomplished stablemates. She might not lose this year if someone doesn’t run a rabbit at her as when allowed to dictate her own pace, she is very hard to catch. American turf racings older horse divisions have been without a star since Bricks and Mortar retired but Up To The Mark looks like he is up to the task. Pretty Mischievous is very game and the clear leader of the three year old filly division but IMO she might be vulnerable in the upcoming CCA Oaks and Alabama at Saratoga. The years may just be finally catching up with War Like Goddess but without seeming to pile on…perhaps a new flavor of pilot should be in order? Prat anyone?

⛽️ it’s hard to believe but last week gas in Valley Stream, just south of Belmont Park, was close to .30 cheaper per gallon than in Saratoga

🎪 Speaking of which…it’s less than a month till opening day at the Spa, which almost doesn’t seem possible. We will be covering the meet with a daily blog post plus our usual stakes previews, some video features and a bunch of other stuff. We are also already preparing for our now annual list of “Saratoga and surrounding area Things to Do” and if anyone has a place that they love that would a good addition to the list, drop me a note and we will check it out!

Going in Circles Digest ranks the three year old’s

1. Forte - He has come through the storm and is still standing. IMO will appreciate the cutback to 9f over a track he likes in the Jim Dandy (presumed to be his next stop). This is a tepid selection though and if any of the horses on this list can string together a couple big wins, we might have a totally different order next time we check in.

2. Mage - accomplished a great deal in a short time (sorta like the Bandit in classic movie Smokey and the Bandit) and his connections giving him a mid-season breather makes a lot of sense. If he can leave the starting gate without major issues throughout the rest of the season, we may not yet have seen the best of him.

3. Arcangelo - yes recency bias is a thing but he was bred to be a good horse and like Mage, he might still have some improvement left in him.

4. Arabian Lion - he looked like toast after a dull try in the Robert Lewis in February but the Justify colt rebounded in the Lexington and Sir Barton before a super impressive Woody Stephens on the cutback, which makes him the leader in the future book clubhouse for the H.Allen Jerkens stakes on Travers Day at the Spa.

5. Two Phil’s - The modern day Lost Code (without the winning streak) taking the road less traveled. Big run in Jeff Ruby Stakes portended a sharp performance in the Kentucky Derby before being shuffled off to the anonymity of Hawthorne to prep for the summer/fall events. A Haskell win could send him to the Travers as the favorite depending on how things shake out.

6. Geaux Rocket Ride - the illness kept him out of the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derby may have been a blessing in disguise as it was asking a lot of the lightly raced son of Candy Ride. He tuned up for the Haskell with a nice win in the Affirmed over softies but doubt Mandella had him fully cranked for that one and a showdown with Two Phil’s, perhaps Arabian Lion and whoever else shows up on the Jersey shore next month looms.

7. Tapit Trice - I have my doubts on him improving and potentially could regress as a horse that simply doesn’t break well, doesn’t like to take dirt and has to be ridden every step of every race. At some point you’d have to believe it will take its toll and if I had to fade anyone on this list, he’d be the one.

8. Disarm - the boss of the B team’ers. Parlayed a wet track, perfect trip win in the Ellis Park version of the Matt Winn to GIC 3 year old list relevance.

9. Blazing Sevens - ran his best race yet in the Preakness where he was probably best. Hasn’t been able to string together good races so we will take a wait and see attitude with him

10. Webslinger - giving credit where credit is due, there have been a bunch of highly touted grass three year olds this season but he beat most of them in the American Turf on the Derby undercard and followed up with another solid win in the Audubon at Churchill before the shift to Ellis.

Honorable mention (no particular order) - Extra Anejo, Angel of Empire, Hit Show, Practical Move, Talk of the Nation, Far Bridge, Mo Stash, Major Dude, Tapit’s Conquest, Arabian Knight, Kingsbarns, Drew’s Gold, National Treasure, Gilmore, Federal Judge, Verifying, Bishops Bay

PP’s compliments of DRF

🧮 Statistic of the week - brought to you by Game of Silks!

This week we take a look at the top 20 earners of 2023 and if they were sold at auction prior to embarking on their racing careers.