Upset and Fred G. Sanford (Day 3)
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🎪 The Sanford Stakes is a Saratoga tradition, first run in 1913. Named after one of Saratoga’s original racing families, the Sanfords of Amsterdam, I can’t help but think of Fred G Sanford from the 70’s sitcom, Sanford and Son every year when it’s run. Many big name horses have won the Sanford including Regret, Tom Fool, Secretariat, Affirmed, Dehere, Kelly Kip, More than Ready, City Zip, Scat Daddy, Afleet Alex and Firenze Fire (more on him later). However the most famous Sanford was the 1919 version when a horse named Upset defeated the legendary Man O’ War, the great champion’s only loss. There are no Man O’ War’s to upset in 2022 but a full field is a welcome sight!
🎪 Business on day 2 was up significantly from 2021 with a handle of $24408104 besting the $20121061 from last year. Fueled by a two day pick 6 carry over of roughly $532k and good weather expected, Saturday looks like be another big day.
🇨🇦 Woodbine has a pick 6 and Super hi 5 carryovers on their Saturday card if the Spa isn’t enough action for you
🍎 We noted City Man’s hidden form in yesterdays preview of the Forbidden Apple (Gr III) and he backed that up, storming home under Joel Rosario to score close to a 3 lengths win. Atone who we didn’t like much held on for second over a wildly over bet Public Sector (GB) who checked in third. Mira Mission was passively handled and seems like his detour to this race meant a training mile, tab for next start. Set Piece (GB) found traffic trouble (we had believed he might) as a one run closer from the inside post in a race packed with speed. When those early pace horses and the chasers begin to tire, it often creates tough trips for the closers if they don’t swing wide which isn’t ideal on the inner turf.
🎪 Race 3 and Race 6 were NY bred races (MSW and NW2X allowance) both run over the inner turf course at 8.5 furlongs. The third race posted fractions were 25.51-52.09-1:17.20-1:40.02 with final time of 1:45.74. The sixth race posted fractions were 23.55-46.97-1:11.08-1:34.91 with a final time of 1:40.97. I’m not an expert clocker ⏱ but it seemed likely that one of these times isn’t accurate. Yet after consultation with an expert clocker who verified the times…what the hell happened in the third race? 🤷🏼♂️
🎪 The Coronation Cup 🏆 was won by second time starter Empress Tigress though Poppy Flower, who was flying late to be second, might have been best. Derrynane found much trouble in the lane and Static Fire ducked in badly in the stretch causing a few to steady. Two broke through the gate before the start as well and every filly in the race with the exception of the winner had a trouble comment in the chart.
🦆 After two days of racing, most of the people reading this have the same number of wins at the meet as Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Flavian Prat. Combined!
🌍 Hearing of a major European trainer that has had a spate of fatal training injuries recently, news of which hasn’t and likely won’t see the light of day. People think of European racing as though it is Royal Ascot everyday. It isn’t. Many of the same issues that we have here, they have over there, they just seem to hide it better. There are plenty of problems right here at home for us to muse about, however everything isn’t ideal everywhere else as some would have you believe.
🪦 RIP Kittens Joy 💔
Day 3 (37 racing days to go)
The Diana Grade I $500000 9f. Inner turf Fillies/Mares
Much handwringing has occurred recently with regard to the paucity of entrants in graded races and to be frank, it’s very much warranted. There are several symptoms causing this malady but that’s a story for a different day. One of the most discouraging aspects of these short fields is often the presence of a massive favorite that makes wagering on them relatively pointless. When the nominations for the Diana were released much eyerolling commenced when it was revealed that turf kingpin Chad Brown was the trainer of 10 of the 14 fillies and mares nominated. It would be a natural assumption that it would be another of those uninteresting scrimmages but the truth is that the 2022 edition of the Diana is a pretty compelling race. Carded as the 8th race on the first Saturday card of the 2022 season, you can make a puncher’s chance for all six in there including the undefeated Bleecker Street.
Technical Analysis (Ire) - 🇮🇪 Kingman filly wired the Gallorette (Gr III) on the Preakness undercard, setting soft fractions before sprinting home to be 3 lengths clear of Crystal Cliffs. That one returned to take the Nassau (Gr II) stakes at Woodbine when she deadheated for the win with Lady Speightspeare. She isn’t going to get a loose lead or may not even get to the front with stablemate In Italian (GB) in here and it’s a fair question to ask how much pressure those two will put on each other. She also hasn’t been able to win at the 9 furlong distance in two tries however she is a fast (2 TG in last), improving filly with tactical speed and can’t be completely discounted. IMO the 4th best of the Brownies and while David Aragona does a tremendous job with the morning line at NYRA, I think he has her price too low.
Creative Flair (Ire) - 🇮🇪 Chuck Appleby ran a training clinic in US graded stakes races last year but was 0-2 over here with this filly. She hasn’t started since taking a grade II race going 9 furlongs in Dubai in February. In that spot she was sent to the lead and virtually went wire to wire though her previous US races she didn’t show much early foot. Appleby must always be respected considering his gaudy numbers when he puts one on a plane though we aren’t nearly enthused by his choice of rider in here.
Bleecker Street - 🇺🇸 has found a way to win in all seven starts with her late rally in the New York (Gr I) in the last perhaps her best performance yet. In that start she rallied from her customary position in the rear of the field behind a pokey pace (50.3/1:16.2) storming down the stretch to get up in the shadow of the wire. Undefeated horses that have her style that aren’t significantly faster than everyone else, make for great stories but they are the types that we are supposed to be betting against. Yes there should be a strong pace to set up her late kick but those pace horses are likely from the same barn so it’s difficult to know just how quick they will be going. She has plateaued on TG running 4 three races in a row which isn’t a bad thing but also doesn’t even make her the fastest filly in here. At odds on, we will tip whatever cap we have on if she wins number 8 but it’s doubtful that we will be wagering on that happening.
Rougir (FR) - 🇫🇷 pick your poison with this filly who has three completely different US races to choose from after a three year old season keeping the best of company in France. She had a troubled trip going 11 furlongs against Loves Only You in the Breeders Cup F/M Turf. Her four year old debut with her current trainer was a dominant score over lesser in the Beaugay (Gr III) which was followed up by a so-so effort while wide behind a tepid pace in Bleecker Street’s New York (Gr I). Which filly shows up on Saturday? You shouldn’t have to take .70 on the dollar like the chalk eating weasels did last out but can she turn the tables on her stablemates in here? She might get first run on the filly to her inside and perhaps that makes the difference.
Dalika (Ger) - 🇩🇪 versatile 6 year old mare makes her second start of the year in here after being the runner up in Mint Julep over Churchill’s much maligned turf course in her season’s debut. Stall trainee has shown speed in many starts but has also shown the ability to pass horses as well. Perhaps she is not quite up to the grade I level but she isn’t completely without a shot of getting on the board.
In Italian (GB) - 🇬🇧 lightly raced Dubawi (Ire) filly has improved on the TG scale every start of her 6 race career with her last number (4 TG) getting her in the mix here. At some point she will level off or regress and it’s more likely than not it happens here. She appears to have been used as a table setter in her last two starts, first setting the pace for Speak of the Devil (FR) in the Distaff Turf Classic (Gr II) then chasing a California turf sprinter when ensuring a strong pace in the Just A Game (Gr I) for Regal Glory. In this spot she appears to be the speed of the speed with her stable mate Technical Analysis (Ire) being the other likely pace factor and it feels like she might not get the separation in the stretch that she will need to hold off the favorites.
Sanford Grade III $175000 6 furlongs dirt 2yo
Boppy O - colt by the red hot freshman stallion Bolt D’Oro, broke his maiden first time out at Gulfstream at the end of May. Only has three recorded works since plus post one plus Casse’s Saratoga numbers are not stellar makes him a tough play.
Major Dude - Pletcher trainee was well backed for his Monmouth Paark debut, winning in a professional performance at 3/5. The son of Bolt D’Oro didn’t break any land speed records that day though he could (and needs to) move forward to be a factor here.
Great Navigator - thirty years ago a horse named Great Navigator (trained by John Mazza) shipped north from Monmouth to take Saratoga’s Hopeful Stakes when that race was a major target for the top two year old colts. What I remember most about that race was that I absolutely loved him in that spot based on his TG numbers and pattern which indicated he had a huge chance.
He looked like a winner every step and the couple friends that I had told to bet on him thought I was a genius when he galloped and paid $50. These days? Those types of horses go off 3/1 if we are lucky. That said it doesn’t appear that the modern edition of Great Navigator is quite in the same class as the old one though he ran a bang up race when blitzing a Monmouth MSW June 4 by 5. He earned a 70 Beyer and ran a solid 10 TG. Will have to do a little better than that here and not crazy about the stretch from 4.5f to 6f but he has already overachieved for a homebred by a $1500 stallion.
Forte - Team Pletcher colt cruised to 7 length win over four overmatched rivals at the end of May, easing up under the wire. Received a 7 TG and 81 Beyer which are excellent figures for Spring two year olds. Likely favorite but this is a much better crew than the field he beat.
Curly Jack - Showed speed from post 1 when breaking his maiden at Churchill on June 4. Perhaps a suspect group as the runner up Boxster came back and was a well beaten 5th as the even money favorite July 2 at CD. Earned a decent 72 Beyer and a 10 TG and gets Gaffalione who doesn’t ride for Amoss all that much but did very well for him at Saratoga last year (29% and 3.87 ROI)
Mo Strike - Pricey Uncle Mo two year old in training ($325k OBS April) broke maiden going 5.5 a month ago at Churchill. TG gave a 14 though Beyer took more favorable view with a 70. Needs to do more to contend here.
Prove Right - TG has him pairing 13’s which is way too slow to win but he should improve off of that number though it’s unlikely he will prove to be much of a factor.
I’m Wide Awake - Beat NY breds in a slow time though he didn’t appear to be fully extended. Look for him in the Fall, back in against state breds not Saturday
Andiamo A Firenze - Speightstown NY bred is a half brother to grade 1 winner (and Saratoga carnivore) Firenze Fire. He crushed state-breds in the slop, eased up in the end, in his only start earning TG of 6 and Beyer of 80. Jose Ortiz will likely be putting him on the lead and hoping he is good enough. Sloppy track wire to wire winners with high figs are generally ones you’d want to fade.
Roman Giant - Makes his 5th career start here and the good news is that he has plenty of room to improve. The bad news is that he is pretty slow for this class of race.
Puttheblameonme - Blame the person who thought entering in this race was a good idea. It’s not.
Valenzan Day - Ran really well first time out on my birthday 🎂 (May 12 and it’s not too late to send a gift!) over a super deep track at Belmont, earning a 7.5 TG and 76 Beyer. Might have bounced a bit second time out in the Tremont when switching to Rosario and changing tactics by taking him back to last. Finished a non-threatening 3rd with a mild rally while earning a 9 TG. Rosario sticks and will assume that a stalking position mid-pack will be the plan.
