Two Derbies and a Tough Steak
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Kentucky Derby season is in full swing as we hit the 35 days away mark this Saturday. This edition of the Going in Circles Digest looks at the weekend’s two major Derby preps and a race named after meat (contested on a different surface than the Derby ). As always we aren’t telling you who or how to bet, just giving you information that we believe is relevant and angles that perhaps you hadn’t considered before. We will start in Florence Y’all with the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Jeff Ruby Steaks Gr. III $600000 9f. All-Weather
Royal Spirit - Into Mischief colt just missed last out in the Kittens Joy (Gr. III) at GP when 2nd for Team Pletcher. Ships north to try synthetic track for first time, Landeros picks up the assignment and figures to rate a decent shot in here if he handles the switch away from the turf and makes a jump in figures as he has been running relatively pedestrian numbers (10 TG is top).
Stolen Base - Just missed in his synthetic track debut last out in the Battaglia for perennial Turfway kingpin Maker. Adds blinkers off of that effort, perhaps hoping to get the Bodemeister colt a bit more involved considering how far he has consistently dropped back in the early stages of his most recent races. A repeat of his last puts him in the mix here but I don’t like blinker changes on closers and and taking short prices on one run closers causes me too much anxiety.
Cabo Spirit - I played him behind Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe last out and he clearly knew as he didn’t run a step though he was very wide throughout. His previous race in the Robert Lewis (Gr. III) was a “someone had to be second” runner-up placing in his return to dirt behind the rampaging Messier who dusted the field by 15. Does have versatile grass form before those two Derby preps and if it translates to synthetic, he may be a potential upsetter.
Rich Strike - seems like he is a notch below the best in here after good trip 4th in the Battaglia. We rarely spend too much time on jockeys in our write ups but Sonny Leon is having a really tough meet at Turfway batting just 6% in 126 chances. This is really a very, very weak Derby prep and Rich Strike doesn’t appear to be remotely considered for the 1st Saturday in May but it’s not impossible for him to be third in here which in itself proves the initial sentiment.
Tawny Port - He was 2 for 2 over the Turfway Park surface when he tried the traditional dirt at the Fair Grounds where he put in a mild rally from the back of the pack to be 5th beaten almost 8 lengths in Epicenter’s Risen Star. Heads back to the artificial and has to merit a chance in this spot though is another entrant that lacks much meaningful early speed.
Great Escape - Exits decent try when second in allowance at OP when setting a moderate pace. Ran ok (for this bunch) TG fig of 8 which matched what he ran when breaking his maiden last Fall at Churchill. Tries the synthetic for the first time and your guess is as good as mine as to how he might handle it. Trainer Brisset is not having a good Turfway meet (18-1-2-1)
Tiz The Bomb - Overcame very wide trip (4w,4w) to capture the Battaglia last month and looms as the favorite again here. Ran a 4.75 TG which is a lifetime top by far and a repeat of that would be tough to beat in here. However he is also another without much early speed and taking short prices on closers in large fields without much early speed to stretch the field out…is not something that I would advise anyone to do. Win, lose or draw he isn’t a serious Kentucky Derby contender unless the race is moved to Turfway or the brand new grass course at Churchill Downs.
Red Run - ships back to Kentucky after a trip to Sam Houston to win the Texas Turf Mile, rallying from well off of the pace. He paired 8 TG which might put him in position to improve here but he, like so many others, are at the mercy of the pace and trip. Asmussen having an uncharacteristic poor meet (24-0-1-4) though his numbers over the years at Turfway are amazingly bad (3% winners from 88 starts)
Dowagiac Chief - The TG database shows trainer Amoss with 6608 starts overall, kind of crazy only 12 of them have come at Turfway Park. This Cairo Prince colt has shown slow but steady progress on the grass culminating with him earning an 8.25 TG for his easy wire to wire win in the Black Gold stakes at FG last out. This is race 12 so by post time we should have a better idea of how the track is playing so consider that he does have some early speed and will likely be among the early leaders.
Optigogo - Had two pretty good synthetic track races at PID and Woodbine last fall to start his career before being switched over to grass where he has had moderate success while running significantly slower. Amazingly enough a bit of improvement off of his Woodbine number puts him in the mix for an on the board finish at huge odds. C’mon CDI this shouldn’t be a 100 point prep!
Constitutionlawyer - ships in off a terrible race at the Big A where he got beat 42 in the Withers. Showed speed in breaking maiden in race prior at this distance albeit on the slow Aqueduct dirt. Trainer and Jockey still looking for first graded wins.
Blackadder - Scratched to target Bluegrass next weekend at Keeneland which seems wildly optimistic considering prior dirt form.
Swing Shift - draws in off of AE list which changes the complexion of the race. Showed good speed when breaking maiden in first start at GP and then chased supersonic 45 half going 9 furlongs in his last. Paired 8.25 TG and despite post will likely be gunned to the lead. If speed is ok, he might be able to wire this group.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Red Run
Arkansas Derby Gr. I $1250000 9 furlongs
Kavod - A few weeks ago in my Derby rankings rundown I made fun, calling him Shish-Kavod, but he is actually a nice little horse. In normal years he would have little chance to hit the board in the Arkansas Derby but this year with a slight bit of improvement he may actually do that. Blinkers off which may indicate that they want him off the lead but in a relatively pace less race that may be a mistake. Either way he will be saving ground and in a race with a lot of very mediocre horses (for a Derby prep) that can’t hurt.
Chasing Time - Didn’t do much running in the Rebel after a nice allowance win in his previous start. If he runs back to the 4 TG he has a shot to be on the board, ship-in jock Jose Lezcano may elect to keep him a bit closer to the pace.
Barber Road - ran a bit better than his running line looks in the Rebel, not really shaking clear till very late in the stretch. He often runs well but rarely gets there which is typical of horses with little early speed. The distance shouldn’t hurt based on his running style and if he can run back to his top (4 TG) without significant traffic trouble, he could get a nice check once again
Doppelganger - Tim Yakteen is 9% in 1st race after trainer change category. He is 38% blinkers off. Yakteen has 2 lifetime starts at OP with no success. He is also in a tough position taking horses like this who are just ok because if they don’t do well, he will get the blame and if he runs great, his prior trainer will get the credit. This colt isn’t a typical horse from the Baffert program as he doesn’t have a lot of early speed and has improved in each of his starts. That said he has to improve once again and there are many question marks surrounding him. The more ?’s a horse has, the longer the price should be and his isn’t gonna be long enough for me.
Un Ojo - was very fortunate to get a dream trip in a slow race. Not for me.
Secret Oath - lays over this field, can run on inside behind horses, obviously loves OP surface and really just needs a clean trip if she runs back to either of her last two starts (both 1.5 TG). The only thing that gives me pause is has she peaked a little too early? Clearly the most likely winner but you will probably be taking less than even money which is never all that comforting.
Ben Diesel - one thing that you can never accuse Dallas Stewart of is being afraid to take a shot in a stakes race. This colt hasn’t done that much running this winter/spring at OP but he also isn’t that far behind some of the others in here. Can’t really recommend though.
Cyberknife - quirky colt has run erratically in the past so drawing outside isn’t bad but ground loss killed him in his only stakes start at the FG in the Lecomte. Ran huge last out though was recipient of perfect trip which might not be the case here. Has also bounced off of his previous big efforts.
We the People - has run really well in both starts, drawing clear to win by 5+ lengths in a pair of two turn races. Is coming back in 21 days off of big effort (3 TG) which isn’t ideal though there is the possibility that he guns to the lead from the outside post in a race without much early pace outside of Kavod. Seems like super talented horse who might be better off running third and getting left off of Kentucky Derby invite list as IMO running horses this lightly raced in that grueling event rarely works out.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Secret Oath
Florida Derby Gr. I $1000000 9 furlongs
Strike Hard - was scratched out of the Tampa Bay Derby when spiked a fever the day before the race. Returns to his home base of Gulfstream Park where he has an excellent record (5-2-2-1) for low profile connections. Was taken on a magical mystery tour in the Sam Davis as jockey Reyes got completely lost in the early stages and gave the Flashback colt no chance. He should be able to get excellent position under new rider Alvarado behind what could be a contentious pace and his TG figures rate him with an excellent chance to upset the apple cart at a huge price.
Classic Causeway - one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby, originally headed to Lexington to compete next weekend in the Bluegrass stakes but Lynch called an audible and here he is. Drawing the 2 post likely means jockey Irad Ortiz is going to be sending him to the lead as he has in both the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby. Very consistent speed figures but has yet to break through to a higher level which he may need to do here. If he is afforded a loose lead by the other speed types, that will make him tougher to beat. Just how much pace pressure that Charge It and White Abarrio put on him can potentially change the entire race. While under normal circumstances you’d think those other two would definitely press the pace, one is making his stakes and two turn debut and the other is drawn even wider and they may try stalking tactics rather than risk a speed duel. Remember that Classic Causeway already has enough points for a spot in the Derby regardless of what happens here yet the other two have to finish 1st or 2nd to have a guaranteed spot. Yet another reason why these light campaigns are far from ideal ways to prep for the biggest race in a horses life.
Simplification - he is perfect proof that running > training on the Derby trail. Hell they thought that he was just a speed horse prior to the Holy Bull (Gr. III) where a gate mishap left him far off the lead and when he rallied to be second, they found that he was a lot more versatile than they thought. Ran really well when capturing the Fountain of Youth (Gr. II) earning a 2.5 TG which matched his lifetime top in the Mucho Macho Man. He would benefit from a pace battle as well but he has regressed on figures every time he has run a big race which is something to keep in mind when playing at a short price.
King of Truth - the truth is that he is wildly overmatched in here.
Pappacap - One of the many 2021 Breeders Cup Juvenile participants that have bombed in 2022. Didn’t show up at all in the Risen Star (Gr.III) last out and while Casse says has been training great, it takes a real leap of faith to jump back on his bandwagon.
Charge It - has run really well both career starts but makes huge jump into a two-turn 9 furlong graded stakes race after 2 maiden races going a mile. Has run fast 5 and 5.75 TG’s but is he going to be as successful rating off of the seasoned Classic Causeway or will he press the pace? At a short price you can count me out. Might wind up being the most talented of the bunch but this is a tough assignment in start number three.
White Abarrio - I noted that he didn’t work back for three weeks after his Holy Bull (Gr. III) win and that was only three furlongs. After three solid works his final prep for this spot was delayed till Tuesday and that was three furlongs again though with big gallop out. The race doesn’t set up great for him either as he is either going to be forced to press the pace or rate perhaps three wide, both tough scenarios. Sorry Twitter legend Rennie Time, we are in full fade mode here.
Cajun’s Magic - This has not been a great Championship meet for trainer Yates who does a good job with mostly modestly bred horses. Unfortunately doesn’t look like this spot is going to turn the tide either.
O Captain - His stunning rally to be third in the Fountain of Youth (Gr III) was overshadowed by the spill at the top of the stretch. He ran a giant new top that day (6 TG) which makes him a fringe board player here if he can duplicate or improve for racing’s secret agent, Ramiro Restrepo.
Clapton - Florida bred sprinter took 7 tries to clear entry level condition against state-breds which doesn’t say “Enter me in the Florida Derby” to me. Trainer Alvarado has had miserable winter meet and I do not think this one is gonna change the world.
Steal Sunshine - tough post for horse that may not be good enough anyway.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Simplification
🚨HUGE EVENT Monday night at Pompano! Battle of the Big Mouths! Check it out on TVG or the Pompano Park feed on your ADW Monday night between the 4th and 5th races! Read about it here!
This weeks edition of the Going in Circles Digest is brought to you by GAME OF SILKS www.silks.io
