Travers Time
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🎪 The rains came late morning as expected, downpours turning the track sloppy and rendering the turf course too soft to use. Saturday will be a better day for sure.
🎪 1st race report: 🍁 Maple Leaf Mel wheeled back in 16 days after easy maiden win, dueled through fast fractions before proving best in the $200k Seeking the Ante stakes for 2yo NYB fillies for Englehart, Rosario and Coach Parcells.
🎪 The Albany went as the third with four horses. Montebello and Barese went at it from the start like it was a match race. Bossmakinbossmoves lunged at the start, trailed for most of the race, raced by post time fav Price Discipline, who was terrible, at the top of the stretch then rolled over the dueling but tiring leaders to spring the upset for Rick Schosberg and Irad Ortiz.
🎪 Fingal’s Cave was undefeated and pretty much untested in three starts for Dave Donk coming into the Fleet Indian. Let Her Inspire U had won her last two in a row and was making her first start around two turns for the old school team of Pletcher/Velazquez . They hooked up at the start and inside the last 100 yards were still doing battle when Finegal’s Cave and Jose Ortiz finally got about a neck ahead while lightly bumping her rival, eventually getting to the wire 1/2 length in front.
🎪 Andiamo A Firenze won the Funny Cide, Make Mischief won the Yaddo (off the turf) and Somelikeithotbrown took the off the turf, three horse West Point. I don’t have anything witty or enlightening to say about any of those three races.
🏁 First post at Saratoga on Saturday is 11:35 am
🏳️ The Ballston Spa (Gr II) has had 36 fillies or mares run (including this year) over the last 6 runnings, Chad Brown has trained 17 of them.
🖼 Art Collector defended his title in the $1,000,000 Charles Town Classic (Gr II) last night at Chucktown for Mott/Saez. Saratoga shipper Society won the $500,000 Charles Town Oaks (Gr III) for Asmussen and Tyler Gafflione.
🎡 Timonium is open if bullring racing is your thing!
🪦 Just days after another one of his two year old progeny struck gold at Saratoga with a maiden win at long odds, top stallion More than Ready passed away at age 25, at WinStar farm in Lexington, Kentucky. He was successful everywhere horses raced, the sire of 216 black type stakes winners, 13 champions and 7 Breeders Cup winners. RIP More Than Ready 😔
Day 33 (7 days to go)
Forego Gr I $600,000 7 furlongs dirt 4 and up
Baby Yoda - on paper he looks like a logical contender in here as he is in good form, has a perfect record over the surface and this isn’t the greatest group of sprinters that he will be trying to overhaul for second. On the flip side he has drawn the rail, loses Rosario and has reacted every time he has run a big TG number which is the scenario in play here. It’s simply not in our DNA 🧬 to accept what will likely be a $7 exacta here underneath Jackie’s Warrior, we will be fading in this spot.
Drafted - this 8 year old gelding has had a fascinating career. He was entered as a yearling in the OBS August sale of 2015 yet found no takers as he was an RNA with a listed price of $17,000. He was sold to Eoin Harty at the 2016 OBS sale for $35,000 after working in 10.1 and debuted a month later at Keeneland, winning a MSW going 4.5 furlongs, setting a new track record (50.45) that still stands, in the process. Harty shipped him overseas to Royal Ascot to take on the European juveniles in the Windsor Castle (Listed) where he was drubbed, finishing 17th of 22. Returned stateside, he resurfaced at Del Mar in the Best Pal (Gr II) where he didn’t do much running after stumbling at the start, finishing last of six in his first start for Godolphin. He was off for 481 days and resurfaced in Dubai in the barn of Doug Watson after being sold for a mere $10,892 in the September 2017 Godolphin racing reduction sale. After a dull try he was fitted with a visor (similar to blinkers) and won a couple of handicaps at Meydan before ending the spring season with a mid-pack finish in a group III. When the Dubai season began once again in December, Drafted was in prime form, winning a listed stakes off the bench before a 2nd and two wins in grade III’s which qualified him to take a shot in the grade I Golden Shaheen where he was defeated by the ill-fated XY Jet when running mid-pack. Rested up for the summer and fall once again, his form wasn’t as sharp the following Dubai season and he was sent back to the US, this time landing in the barn of trainer David Duggan. His first start for Duggan and new owner Misty Hollow Farm was the Fall Highweight Handicap, Thanksgiving weekend of 2020 where he was a mediocre 5th. He kicked around the fringes of the NY sprint circuit for most of 2021, ownership changing once again to the current group which is too long to list here. He has been very sharp in 2022 as an 8 year old, kicking off the year with a win in the Tobbogan (Gr III) at Aqueduct in February, running 5th in the Carter (Gr I) before winning the Runhappy (Gr III) at Belmont, the Mr Prospector (Black type) at Monmouth and running second, last out in the Alpacas Run (Black Type) at Delaware. What does this have to do with todays Forego? Not a whole lot but he will be running late and Duggan has done a phenomenal job keeping him in peak form at his advanced age. Can he win? Probably not without Jackie’s Warrior bolting or losing the rider but can he grab a piece at a nice price? Yes he can.
Jackie’s Warrior - it’s amazing to me that people still try to convince me that he is just a good sprinter 😅. He is a great one! First of all, he isn’t a dead speed horse despite having a huge amount of early gas. He has won on a slew of different surfaces (CD, Sar, Bel, OP, Parx) He has won at distances ranging from 5f (in his debut) to 8f (Pat Day mile) and isn’t really better at 6 or 6.5 or 7f, he is equally devastating at all three. We hear harping about his Breeders Cup loss last fall yet virtually no one comments on the fact that he emerged from that race injured, requiring a surgery to remove bone chips in his knee. He had to work harder than usual in his 2022 seasons debut but has obliterated three straight grade I and II fields which may have not been star studded groups, but it has been total domination. He has run negative TG numbers in 8 of his last 9 races, the only blemish was the race in which he was injured in. His top TG is a -4.75 (in the True North (Gr II). He is 5 for 5 at Saratoga. I just don’t get the hate…
Three Two Zone - completely different animal since entering the Handel barn this Spring. Takes big step up in class here and one has to wonder how much development is left in the 4 year old colt by Street Sense, who had a life time top TG of 7 just three months ago? Any improvement from the last makes him dangerous but how close is he to his ceiling already?
Cody’s Wish - reminds me a bit of stablemate Olympiad who had a similar string of improving performances over the last 9 months. Unfortunately for his stablemate, he met a superior horse (Life is Good) that halted that skein, will Jackie’s Warrior be Cody’s Wish’s Life is Good? Cuts back a furlong off of narrow win in one turn mile Hanshin Stakes (Listed) at Churchill (note: we needed runner up Three Technique for a pallet of cash that day) and gets acid test in two regards, class and distance today.
Pipeline - cuts back from two turn Monmouth Cup (Gr III) to 7f sprint here. Wasn’t on best part of track in that last race but also looms to lose ground here too breaking from an outside post with the two directly inside him and Baby Yoda all trying to get that same stalking trip off of Jackie Warrior’s flank.
Kneedeepinsnow - last time out in the Vanderbilt was ridden to try to achieve best placing without getting in duel with Jackie’s Warrior. Likely to try similar tactics in here though this is a deeper group and the outside post might force Santana wider than he’d like to be.
HA Jerkens Gr I $500,000 7f dirt 3yo
Conagher - bargain buy ($9000 at Fasig Tipton Oct) has emerged as one of the fastest three year old sprinters in the land. Blitzed two allowance fields in Kentucky in April and early June before trying to stretch his speed in the Iowa Derby, getting run down late by Travers runner Ain’t Life Grand. Returned to sprinting August 1 at Colonial Downs, dusting a moderate field in the Housebuster, getting a 1.25 TG, an improvement from his route race but roughly back to the level of his previous sprints (1.25 and -.75). His main advantage in his wins has been his high speed though two of his chief rivals, Jack Christopher and Gunite also have the ability to rattle off a sub 22 first quarter. If he can shake loose and make those rivals chase him and not let them engage, that might be his best chance of winning. If one or both press him, we could see supersonic fractions. Rooting for good guy, trainer Mike Tomlinson who oddly is 60% ITM lifetime at the Spa yet has not visited the winners circle.
Runninsonofagun - hate adding blinkers off of by far best race, when running third in the Amsterdam (Gr II). Still isn’t fast enough but rather see no equipment changes after big jump in TG figs (TG 3.75 from previous top of 7.25).
Howling Time - cuts back to 7f from 9f as he last ran in the Haskell, finishing a tiring fourth after stalking the pace from the outside. Not sure what the plan will be as he is not gonna wanna take dirt in his face as he has always been on the outside or in front. Romans is on extended losing streak in graded stakes, at least 0 for his last 47 attempts. Needs lifetime best to get really involved, demand a big price.
Actuator - lightly raced colt comes in here off of win in Indiana Derby (G III) where he overcame a little bit of a wide trip and some traffic. Hasn’t shown that he is fast enough, paired 5 TG is his best which isn’t good enough. Another cutting back from longer distances to sprinting.
Happy Jack - C’mon…lol! Actually ran decent two back but he needs massive improvement and a wild speed duel to even hit the board.
Jack Christopher - goes back to sprints after faltering despite perfect trip in the Haskell. Figures to stalk Conagher and pounce at the quarterpole where he generally separates himself from his rivals in one turn races. If those two get in a protracted speed duel perhaps they will soften each other up, allowing one of the closers to take advantage. Has run giant fig (-4 TG in Woody Stephens) and I wonder if he is potentially going to regress further from that number? Does give weight to all his rivals here.
Totalizer - total toss out. Someone should put up him vs Happy Jack head to head wager.
Gunite - ran huge in Amsterdam, carrying the weight of my largest wager of the meet (a hefty burden to bear). That said he may have to change up tactics here from the outside, with new shooters with early speed, Conagher and Jack Christopher drawn inside him. He has improved since getting beaten rather easily by both those two earlier in his career and perhaps gets overlooked here as the bulk of the attention goes to them and Accretive.
Accretive - Gelding has run lights out in both starts, including tough beat last out in the Amsterdam (Gr II). Likely to tuck in behind the speed/pressers and try to run them down in the lane. Gives up valuable experience and may wind up getting hung a bit wide but has to be respected unless track is favoring inside speed which considering it’s a big day…
Personal Ensign Gr I $600,000 1 1/8 main track F/M
Letruska - last years Eclipse champ has had limited campaign this season with an eye on going into the BC Distaff with fresh legs. Was hounded on the lead by Search Results in the Phipps on the Belmont undercard and paid for it late as she just folded up. Returns here and figures to get loose on the lead with the short run to the first turn and a new jockey on Search Results. Perhaps she has lost a step as a 6 year old but at the right price I’m willing to bet that with a loose lead, she has enough left for one last hurrah.
Search Results - ran puzzling race to start the year but followed that up with huge efforts in Ruffian (Gr II), Phipps (Gr I) and Molly Pitcher (Gr III). Holds distinction of being fastest filly in the bunch but also has bounced off of top efforts before. Clearly Irad was replaced after the Phipps (no mount in here) where he went after Letruska which did her in but took the starch out of Search Results, as she tired to finish 3rd. Brown prefers his horses not run on the lead and as such it’s likely that Prat will be under strict instructions to not go after Letruska early again. That presents a dilemma as there really isn’t anyone else who possesses the early foot to press the speedy mare and chasing her has almost always not worked out.
Clairiere - the Curlin mare really stepped up her game this year and enters the Personal Ensign (Gr I) as the clear division leader. However this spot presents a tricky situation as there may not be much pressure on Letruska and she could be looking at an Apple Blossom pace scenario that makes it close to impossible to run her down. She is a big play against unless the track is completely against speed types or Prat decides to turn up the heat early, both of which are unlikely.
Crazy Beautiful - graded stakes winning filly appears to be a cut below the other four. Perhaps she takes up the role of staying closest to Letruska though in their only meeting she wasn’t ridden like that. Appreciate McPeek’s willingness to take shots in races where his horse isn’t among the favorites. Can’t win it if you aren’t in it, though I do doubt that she will win it. Yogi Berra lives…
Malathaat - was insanely overbet last time due to blinkers added which didn’t seem to help whatsoever. At the current time, it appears that Clairiere is a length or so better than her, though both may fall victim of Letruska getting an easy lead in this spot.
Travers Gr I $1,250,000 10 furlongs 3yo
Cyberknife - won the Haskell up the rail under a clever ride by Flo Go who has been riding on the West Coast this summer. Improving at the right time, may get rail run again behind somewhat confusing pace scenario.
Rich Strike - one thing is for sure about the Ky Derby winner is that he can surely handle the 10 furlong distance. His trainer has made some comments about showing speed which seems completely opposite of everything that the colt has shown in his career.
Ain’t Life Grand - is gonna find out that life for Iowa-breds ain’t so grand outside of Praire Meadows where the dulcet tones of announcer Bobby Neuman coax huge performances out of otherwise ordinary horses. Interesting that his TG figs (assisted by wide trips against lesser company) are far better than wise guy horse Artorius.
Gilded Age - is finally getting better to the point where he is on the fringes of being able to win a graded stakes race. The bad news is he still has a ways to go to beat Travers-type horses.
Artorius - is bound to be a huge underlay here as he has a progressive TG pattern BUT he has also never run faster than a 4 which isn’t close to good enough. At 12/1 he isn’t a bad stab hoping he puts it all together and relishes the distance, at 9/2 or less he isn’t.
Epicenter - didn’t break alertly once again in the Jim Dandy but Joel Rosario never panicked, patiently waited at the back of the compact field before unleashing a strong rally down the center of the track to reestablish his position at the top of a pretty murky three year old division. He really hasn’t developed in terms of TG figures which I thought was interesting as I had expected his Jim Dandy to come back a little quicker than his previous starts. I expect him to run well as he always runs well but I will be trying to beat him in here as I have rarely seen a big race where so many high profile horses are not particularly fast.
Early Voting - reverted back to pre-Preakness TG fig in the Jim Dandy (Gr II) where he set an ordinary pace on a track that had speeded up from earlier in the meet. His early fractions matched up with a 3yo starter race earlier on the card, despite any rhetoric you hear, it wasn’t a fast pace. His trainer reamed Ortiz out after the race for going to the lead though I’m not sure what he could have done other than strangle him back in a 4 horse race with zero other speed types. If they plan to take back and stalk whoever sets the pace, the race may get really strange. His best can win it, I’m not confident that we will be getting that.
Zandon - the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, he ran well in Louisville though he couldn’t sustain his run which makes me wonder about his ability to conquer the 10 furlong distance considering his pedigree. Was taken out of his favored running style in the Jim Dandy yet still grinded out a runner up position while proving to be no match for Epicenter.
Sword Dancer Gr I $750,000 12 furlongs Inner Turf
Adhamo (Ire) -finally got in winners circle at MTH. This is tougher spot
Cross Border - age finally catching up to the Saratoga lover at 8?
Broome (Ire) -Euro invader, Moore ships too. O’Brien is 0-11 at Spa.
Cold Hard Cash - don’t bet your cash on him, cold or otherwise
Rockemperor (Ire) - erratic sort. Bad all year, good last time. Not likely yet not impossible either
Gufo - hasn’t been as good as he was last year. Only knows one way
Tribhuvan (Fr) - figures to take them as far as he can. Channel Maker will keep him honest. Pass.
Soldier Rising (GB) - deep closer that has never run fast enough to beat these
Channel Maker - every once in a while he has a flashback, not this time
Mira Mission - dull try last time broke up series of improving, fast races. In Julian we trust 😳
Holy Bull vs Concern in the 1994 Travers was about as good as it gets!