Time is running short as the races get longer
Real Writing on Racing 💯
We are down to six remaining major preps to earn points for entry into the 150th Kentucky Derby (the Lexington at Keeneland which is only worth 20 points to the winner is the 7th). With three of those preps being held Saturday, the relatively shapeless Derby field will get a dash of clarity added to the mix when the results are known. The action kicks off early on the other side of the world with the Dubai World Cup card featuring a couple of races with American interests including the UAE Derby (Gr II), a 9:50 am eastern post with 100 points on the line for the winner. A marathon Florida Derby day program commences at 11:30 am with the main event scheduled as race 14 with a 6:42 post time and Arkansas Derby day begins at 1:05 eastern with the Derby capping the day off at 7:47pm.
🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Arkansas Derby can be found here.
🇪🇭 PP’s for the UAE Derby (Gr II) ⤵️
🏅 If you haven’t done it by now, do yourself a favor and check out the Sid Fernando/Frances Karon Substack which is putting out excellent racing and breeding content several times a week.
💻 Data matters more than ever in this ever evolving gambling world. Dean Towers talks about how the Equibase free data initiative can help grow the sport in the latest HRU.
💸 Anthony Pompliano talks about how America has become a nation of gamblers and it makes you wonder why the powers that be spent the last five decades fighting the gambling aspect of racing?
🐶 Mike at The Mut Stack is handicapping the Derby preps
Florida Derby (Gr I) $1,000,000 3yo 1 1/8 (100 KD pts)
Frankie’s Empire - gritty Classic Empire colt trained by the dangerous Bo Yates (as in likely to upset the apple cart in a big stakes race, his hands aren’t registered as weapons with the FBI) ran a decent race when third in the scratch-marred Fountain of Youth (Gr II) last month. Yes, the winner of the Swale in his previous start, did lose some ground on both turns in that prep for this but the pace was slow and the field relatively decimated to the point that Le Dom Bro, a pretty ordinary colt was a clear cut runner up to Remsen (Gr II) winner Dornoch. How I view virtually all of the Florida preps this season (including the two at Tampa Bay Downs) is with skepticism, this race included. Can he sneak into the equation with a ground skimming trip? Sure seems like he could as he does usually fire, my question is more along the lines is does he want the added ground and have we seen him plateau already? Once again, skeptical.
Hades - I was a bit surprised that the connections chose to pass the Fountain of Youth (Gr II) with this Florida bred gelding by unheralded sire Awesome Slew. As a gelding his value lies in what he can earn and 3yo Kentucky Derby preps are often the best spots to chase big money against watered down competition. That being said, this is the year of spacing and light prep work so I suppose it fits into what everyone else is doing. His Holy Bull (Gr II) was a masterclass of the Paco Lopez experience. Paco was aggressive in the early stages of the race while huge favorite Fierceness was encountering all sorts of trouble and as they turned down the backside, he had Hades in a position to dictate terms of the race. He stole a soft opening quarter (25.03) and slowed the tempo even further in the second quarter (25.50), which is a glacial pace for this caliber of horse. His second winning maneuver was to not panic when Fierceness ranged up outside of him heading into the final turn, Paco sat chilly and let Hades maintain his own speed and ‘saved some horse’ for the stretch drive. When Fierceness started to grow weary passing the quarterpole, Paco went to work, drifting a path or two to increase pressure on his rival and then asking the gelding for his best. Hades, who had saved every inch of ground on the turns, responded and spurted away, Paco giving him a few taps with the crop as they sprinted to the first wire, as GP 1 1/16 races are contested using the short stretch set up. Clearly Joe Orseno had his charge ready to fire but this was a case of rider aggressiveness that made a huge difference in the outcome. The problem moving forward is that despite all those advantages (including getting a 6 pound weight break from Fierceness) Hades ran a TG of 6 which quite simply isn’t very fast and was earned under almost ideal circumstances. Stealing away to a half mile time of 50.53 in the Florida Derby seems unlikely as I’d expect a revved up Fierceness to heat the pace if not try to seize the lead outright. The old racetrack adage of ‘if you missed the wedding, don’t be there for the divorce’ seems appropriate at anything close to the 7-2 morning line.
Bail Us Out - if by race 14, you are in the hole enough to need this Lookin at Lucky colt to bail you out, you might be in trouble. Broke his maiden in a middling synthetic race last out, the Commish, Pletcher and Irad might just be looking to pick up a nice check in a pretty weak version of the Florida Derby (Gr I)…but he has to improve quite a bit to even do that.
Grand Mo the First - When evaluating the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr II), a quick method is to remind yourself that this Uncle Mo colt took the worst of it in trips and was still only beaten a neck for the whole thing. Based on his previous body of work, that isn’t flattering for Domestic Product or No More Time. Wheeling back here on 20 day rest is an aggressive move from Barboza, who is struggling this meet, winning only 8% which is a far cry from his usual training wizardry. The 6 TG that he earned in Tampa is right in line with Frankie’s Empire and Hades best, so at 15-1 or longer, he might find his way on your tickets in an underneath position.
Real Macho - Nothing about his Fountain of Youth convinces me that the connections should have put up money to run here. At this point there is little evidence that he even wants two turns, let alone two turns in stakes competition. I’m sure that they will take him back and try to make a late run but they shall do it without tote support from me.
Le Dom Bro - nice story as 20 year old Eniel Cordero tries to become the youngest Florida Derby winning trainer. The hurdle for him is that while his horse is improving, the Mucho Macho Man colt is still pretty slow for this level of competition and he is likely to be too close to what figures to be a more lively pace than what was set in the Fountain of Youth (Gr II).
Catalytic - thus far in his brief stallion career, there is little to suggest that Catalina Cruiser is going to be a strong stamina influence and his son Catalytic, doesn’t have much on his dams side to suggest that jumping from 6 to 9 furlongs will be a successful venture.
Seminole Chief - Girvin colt may impact the race by being part of the early pace scenario, otherwise hard to see more than that.
Conquest Warrior - has been visually impressive in his two GP starts, breaking his maiden while weaving through the field before stretching out to today’s distance to cruise in an allowance prep for this. Runs solid but not overwhelming figs (ran a 5 TG last out) which unlike most others in here, should serve as a steppingstone, he hasn’t improved to these figs, they are his baseline. If Fierceness doesn’t fire, he is clearly the most likely winner for Shug who won this with Orb, on the way to his only Kentucky Derby winner.
Fierceness - originally my take on his disappointing race in the Holy Bull (Gr II) was that he’s simply a temperamental colt that makes things difficult himself when things don’t go his way. That still may be true but after examining his training schedule prior to the prep race and the one going into this race, IMO I think that he was just short and when you added in the poor start, the rough first turn, the ground loss, the rating into a slow pace, he just ran out of gas more than anything. Pletcher has trained him with much more purpose going into this spot and if he breaks cleanly (yeah not exactly a given with his history) I’d expect a much better performance from him today. That isn’t exactly compelling analysis when coming up with a horse who will likely be even money, but this isn’t a good field and his best destroys them. I wouldn’t bet my life savings on his happening as the very nature of quirky is being unpredictable but IMO he will be very tough and the post will just nicely add a few points to the price.
Iris’s Dream - respect the aggressiveness in taking a shot with a clearly thriving three year old. The problem is that he is probably better on turf and if they had chosen to run in the Cutler Bay (race 3) against fellow 3yo’s going 7.5f on the turf, he would have been very tough to beat with a repeat of his last.
Arkansas Derby (Gr I) $1,500,000 3yo 1 1/8 (100 KYD pts)
Will Take It - very doubtful he will take it unless ‘it’ is getting hot and dirty.
Timberlake - if you put a gun to my head and made me pick one horse that I was most confident could win the Kentucky Derby as of today, it would probably be this guy. That doesn’t mean that he is a cinch here or on the first Saturday in May but he is consistently the fastest colt of the erratic bunch. His comeback race was solid, he seems like he is training well, should get a good trip and Prat is a plus. It’s boring but he is the one to beat pretty clearly here.
Diamatic - erratic running son of Gun Runner flopped in the Rebel when Asmussen added blinkers to try to correct his lack of focus. On figs it was actually an improvement as he was pretty slow in the maiden races. Would need big jump to contend but it’s not out of the question he can put it together and be third at a long price.
Time for Truth - an example of prudent management when trainer Moquett scratched from an unenviable post 12 in the Rebel (Gr II) to run in an allowance race that he won a week later. Has run solid but unspectacular figures and my question about him lays more about his ability to get more ground as he was fully extended at the shorter trip.
Liberal Arts - Trainer Medina has done a tremendous job in developing this son of Arrogate into a real contender, not only today but with any luck and further development, the first Saturday in May as well. Gafflione has to avoid getting shuffled back early and giving him too much to do but if given a decent chance, I’d expect to see him closing stoutly at the end.
Informed Patriot - like the New England Patriots, this guys fortunes seem headed in the wrong direction as he had no real excuses in either of his last two stakes forays.
Muth - has been absent from prep land since dusting an overmatched field in the San Vincente (Gr II) in early January. Baffert ships in looking to build stallion resumes and bankrolls with no Derby points available to his changes once again this year. Figures to stalk what feels like a solid early pace and Baffert shippers are always dangerous but IMO he is vulnerable at 9f as IMO he is more of a one turn horse than a classic distance type.
Just Steel - Lukas rarely passes an opportunity to enter this Justify colt and he usually gives a good account of himself. Was very wide in the Rebel and the outside post here makes that possibility loom once again. Very difficult to know what to expect.
Mystik Dan - like a broken record, McPeek horses are very tough to get a line on and this Goldencents colt is another example of that. Who saw his last race coming? He relished the going and on a dry surface we will be guessing that he will regress to the mean, aka won’t be using him.
Imperial Gun - Gun Runner colt gets the worst of it at the draw and hasn’t shown yet that he is good enough to tangle with the better ones in this group.