Thursday’s Thoughts
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Real world problems
Russia as widely anticipated invaded Ukraine last night which has plunged Europe into major crisis mode and crashed the worlds financial markets. Neither Russia, Ukraine or the surrounding Balkans are important racing locales but the subsequent dominos falling as result of this senseless act of aggression will surely negatively impact racing as it depresses the entire world’s economy.
Oaklawn’s racing card’s this weekend appear in jeopardy due to icy conditions. Kentucky Derby prep Rebel (Gr.II) and Kentucky Oaks prep Honeybee (Gr.III) are scheduled for Saturday’s card but may have to be rescheduled which also happened last year after a major snowstorm shut the Hot Springs area down for over a week.
The Rebel is a 50 point to the winner prep that has a large field of 11 however it is light on credentialed runners. The only graded stakes winner in the field is Newgrange, winner of the Southwest (Gr. III) in his latest start for the embattled Bob Baffert. The unbeaten son of Violence also won the Sham (Gr. III) at Santa Anita on New Year’s Day. We will be putting together a preview for the race if it looks like they will run this weekend. Here are pp’s for the Rebel
The Honeybee (Gr. III) is a small field of six that features the emerging Secret Oath who crushed the Martha Washington stakes last month at Oaklawn, winning by more than seven lengths for Wayne Lukas. That was the Arrogate filly’s second blowout win in a row over the Oaklawn surface after faltering in the Golden Rod (Gr. II) at Churchill in her final start as a two year old. The second place finisher in that race, Yuugiri, is entered here as the 5/2 second choice making her three year old debut for Rudy Brisset. The group has a couple of fillies that have racked up seven stakes wins between them, albeit against B level competition, in Optionality and Free Like a Girl and two maiden breakers round out the group.
Every week we still see prep races run under allowance conditions which makes little sense in the 2022 racing world. Change this racing officials!
Last night at Turfway Park during race 3, the rider of the #8 Schenectady Star doesn’t appear to give his best effort during the final 1/8th mile. Perhaps there was a valid reason but transparency is a must in these situations as the betting public deserves an explanation. Check it out for yourself
Speaking of rider issues, Jockey Irad Ortiz was disqualified for interference in yesterday’s 6th race at Gulfstream which was his second DQ in 6 days after getting taken down last week for a similar infraction. The stewards curiously didn’t penalize Ortiz with any days or fine for the incident last week despite him recently being slapped with a rare 30 day suspension by the NYRA stewards stemming from a pair of incidents at Aqueduct in December. If Category one rules are going to have any chance of success in the US, the penalty process for jockeys is going to have to be re-examined. Irad Ortiz is an exceptionally talented jockey but his continued reckless riding is not only unnecessary but becoming a real problem. Let’s see how they decide to deal with this latest episode.
Epicenter was a big overlay at 5-1 in our view last Saturday in the Risen Star and his performance is another example of what happens when trainers race improving three year olds instead of the folly of keeping them “fresh”. Understanding that training methods have changed and horses require (or are getting) far fewer races with far more spacing, the Kentucky Derby is not just another race and “freshness” has always been a disadvantage.
The Saudi Cup is Saturday and there are quite a few American-based horses running on the card. Country Grammer, Midnight Bourbon, new 2021 Derby winner Mandaloun and Art Collector are all entered in the $20 million dollar Saudi Cup. The rest of the card is impossible to find unless you read Arabic, which is puzzling.
Letruska, last year’s Eclipse award winning older mare returns to the races Saturday at Gulfstream in the Royal Delta (Gr. III) against six mostly overmatched rivals. When last seen the six year old daughter of Super Saver was getting torched while chasing a ludicrous pace in the BC Distaff that led to her melting down and finishing 32 lengths behind the Japanese upsetter, Marche Lorraine. While she figures to enjoy a much softer pace scenario Saturday, we have seen highly successful older mares sometimes tail off unexpectedly (Winning Colors, Lady’s Secret, Racheal Alexandra). Perhaps Crazy Beautiful deserves a closer look?
A friend was talking about Saratoga this morning and I want to remind everyone that July 14th is opening day and that is only 140 days away.
Next weekend there are four Derby preps though the Battaglia at Turfway is rarely a factor and the Gotham is a one turn prep but does carry 50 points for the victor. The two major preps are the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the San Felipe at Santa Anita where more points are likely to go into the Derby Point black hole that is growing with every Baffert winner. The following week is the Tampa Bay Derby and then there are no preps at all until March 26th.