“The Ship be Sinking” plus the Rebel

Real Writing on Racing 💯

“We may have all come on different ships, but we're in the same boat now."

- Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

It seems fitting during February, nationally recognized as Black History month, that a quote by Dr. King would be appropriate. Though surely the Reverend didn’t have horse racing on his mind when uttering those words, they are quite pertinent for the racing game as it slips further away from mainstream relevance in the 21st century. Never before has the sport appeared to be so lost, with its chief leadership protagonists verbally sparring and lashing out via social media mediums and podcasts. Oddly enough horse racing in the United States has come to mirror the toxic political scene that many moderate citizens have grown so disgusted with. An increasing number of racing patrons have feelings that run along that same vein.

Stuart Janney of the Jockey Club has been cast in the Joe Biden role, the old establishment scion that has come to power later in life and absolutely isn’t going to step away regardless of how obdurate that stance makes him appear. Mike Repole of the esoteric National Thoroughbred Alliance, is playing Donald Trump, a boisterous billionaire that desires to take down the old regime and replace it with his own dominion, Twitter serving as his weapon of choice. One doesn’t have to use an extensive amount of literary license to see the comparison.

Yet that isn’t where the similarities to the racing version of political strife end.

Like the majority of our elected officials at the highest level, neither individual has much in common with the vast majority of the industry’s participants and followers. Janney was born into old money wealth while Repole’s is a story of a meteoric rise to seven figure status for a kid from Queens. Now I will preface this by saying that I don’t have any connection with either person, nor am I passing any personal judgement on them. However there is but a tiny fraction of us whose family traces back to Carnegie Steel or have won the Kentucky Derby as Orb did in 2013. More of us can relate to Repole’s early beginnings as a child of working class parents but he has also been in the billionaires club for almost two decades now. The prism through which they see racing is far different than not only each other, but the rest of us non-old money, non-self made billionaires as well.

Consider that neither party seems to have a well stated plan for racing’s future, outside of a sobering but gloomy forecast. Repole has oft referenced getting everyone on the same page but in doing so, usually speaks of plans with “top owners and trainers”, a segment of racing that is the least likely to have felt the impact of underlying issues that are chasing people away. What the Jockey Club envisions for the sport is fuzzy as most of the public discourse coming from Janney has been rhetoric about HISA and regulation, which surely has a role but no industry grows or thrives because it standardizes a portion of it’s rules. To Repole’s credit he has engaged with the racing public and though Horse Racing Twitter can be a difficult place to create clear lines of communication, the effort is appreciated. The Jockey Club, on the other hand, has almost no public discourse, preferring to pay consulting firm McKinsey and Company for their input.

Both gentlemen have recently been guests on racing TV personality Nick Luck’s podcast and though interesting listens, from our seat there were more alarms set off than words to be encouraged by.

Both men seem to realize that racing has found itself in rough seas, yet neither seems to have much of a grasp that they and others of their ilk, are at the root of many of the fundamental ails of the game. Janney, via his position at the head of the Jockey Club, spent years administering a scorched earth policy towards Lasix, demonizing both trainers and veterinarians, while denigrating the overall reputation of American racing. When you frame lasix use as sort of pro tem scarlet letter to shame horsemen, why would you think that the hyper-judgmental society in which we exist, wouldn’t also condemn the entire industrial complex of racing itself?

This constant drumbeat of negativity ramped up the cynical view that many followers of racing adopted. They heard mostly one-sided rhetoric that called horsemen ‘cheaters’ for using a legitimate, preventive treatment for a recognized disease (EIPH). It’s painfully obvious in hindsight that much of the growth of the abject negativity that shrouds the sport was fueled by the organization that claims to represent its best interests. We have had ample time now to examine the effects of a ban on lasix in two year olds and graded stakes races. Little was accomplished outside of playing a role in field size reduction while also creating a dilemma for betting customers. More guesswork is required when horses show up with an L in the past performances as they turn three, or to the contrary, when the L is taken away as they climb the class ladder into stakes competition. Another downside is that it’s made ownership more expensive at a time when, in the face of lagging foal crops, the sport desperately needs expansion in that sector. It quite simply was a battle that never needed to be waged. Civil wars are always bloody and the tactics employed did far more to provide fuel for the enemies of the game than creating any manner of positive tangible benefit.

Repole’s impact wasn’t as individually direct as the Jockey Club’s war against rank and file horsemen, yet the rise of supertrainers and conglomerate owners has proven to be deleterious nonetheless. The steady stream of short, uninteresting fields which make for a poor wagering product are an offshoot of the competitive talent imbalance that exists on most backstretches. Middle class trainers and owners have fled the scene as it became clear that they couldn’t compete on a day to day basis, especially with the racetracks themselves ignoring their own long established guardrails by allowing what amounts to unlimited stall space on some circuits. While understanding that the elephant didn’t set out to kill the mice, that doesn’t make the mice any less dead.

We could spend page after page with tales of woe that have been caused by an unholy trinity of super trainers, conglomerate owners and their benefactors, the racetracks themselves. Yet one disappointment that lingers and is proving to be a difficult genie to put back into the bottle, is the thought process that only big trainers are capable of training top horses. It’s so patently false that it’s baffling why so many can’t understand that the “programs” that the big trainers employ are chiefly fueled by having a never ending supply of good horses, not by any magical training charts. This isn’t to disparage anyone, to the contrary, the elite trainers usually went through a learning curve before they were at the top of their game. Yet the history of the sport is littered with great horses trained by veteran ‘meat and potatoes’ guys that happened to be able to get the best out of an individual because of the extra time they can devote to them. Hell they made a major motion picture out of one of them, Seabiscuit, 60 years after his last race. Yet when the Mike Repoles’ of the world dole out their young horses, every one with high hopes goes to a supertrainer. This isn’t to single him out as the vast majority of the huge outfits utilize the same tactics, but he did self-anoint himself Commissioner. If one asks for the smoke, we here at the Going in Circles Digest shall fulfill that request.

We could list 50 more pages of gripes, but that’s not our intention and we have a race to preview. Let’s just say that in taking an unofficial straw poll, neither candidate for the mythical title of ‘Glorious Racing Leader’ has the confidence of the people. From horseman to breeders to officials to trainers to bettors, everyone is pessimistic and there are few signs that feeling will soon abate. We desperately need change but to get an effective version of that, we need leaders to have a greater understanding of the depths of the issues, the realization that it may be unpopular with their closest confidants and that cooperation is imperative. Otherwise, in the immortal words of New York Knicks legend, Sugar Ray Richardson, “the ship be sinking” and haranguing about who should steer it, certainly won’t change its fate.

🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Rebel from OP can be found HERE.

🎪 It’s not Summer but the Saratoga Special crew has a Saturday Special posted covering today’s big events.

🏇🏻 Check out USA Steeplechase a new Substack that covers all manners of racing, not just jumpers.

🤬 Probably the single most vexing issue for horseplayers these days is the CAW-influenced late odds drop after the starting gate opens. In this short clip, Mike Mutnansky (check out his excellent racing focused Substack Stackcapping, a subset of his weekly MutStack franchise) does an excellent job of expressing how so many of us feel in regards to this conundrum using last Saturday’s Rachel Alexandra (Gr II) as the latest example.

🇸🇦 We will watch the Saudi Cup because it’s an obvious big day of racing on the international scene. However wagering is tricky as not being all that familiar with the vast majority of the runners makes it a dicey proposition. As far as the Saudi Cup itself, there is so much speed signed on despite the tracks tendency to favor early pace runners, I’d be wary of a strong run from an outsider similar to the 2022 running when local bomb, Emblem Road, upset the field.

😡 The finale at Santa Anita Friday afternoon once again served up notice that the SoCal stewards just keep making it up as they go. A terrible, petty DQ that creates an impossible standard for jockey to follow. No I didn’t bet on the race but bad calls should be upsetting for all of us, not just those directly effected.

Another happy racing customer!

💰 Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears is back with the Going in Circles/RCNGhub Play of the day in todays feature, the Rebel (Gr II) from Oaklawn Park.

---

Rebel (Gr II) $1,200,000 3yo 1 1/16 (50 KYD points)

1. Carbone - Mitole colt wheels back in three weeks after dueling with stablemate in Southwest (Gr III), a tactic that left both of them out of gas when the real running needed to be done. Speed wasn’t strong on that muddy surface that day and he had missed some training beforehand. Yet this feels like he may not shake loose again based on what the speedy Time for Truth does from post 13. I suppose if you took 9-5 last time you probably might take another swing at far longer odds, but barring a fortune scratch or wild inside speed bias, he is tough for me to use.

2. Northern Flame - Erratic Flameaway colt comes into this off of a gritty wire to wire allowance score over this same surface in late January. His 2nd year stallion hasn’t had much two turn dirt success thus far in his young career and as we have stated in the past, McPeek runners are often a tough read. I’m leaning against on this guy as his two wins are on the lead which he is unlikely to see here and I’m just not confident that he will fire in this bulky field. NOTE: it’s ridiculous that this horse carries high weight here and gives stakes winners like Just Steel and Timberlake 5 and 3 pounds because he recently won an allowance race. WHO THINKS THIS MAKES SENSE????

3. Common Defense - Also trained by McPeek (congrats are in order for Kenny with him winning his 2000th race the other day at Turfway). Karakontie colt didn’t fire at all in the Southwest (Gr III) but has decent figures and a move forward on a dry track may get him on the board at a huge price.

4. Tejon Pass - I suppose connections want to try and make sure that their charges aren’t fit for a Derby run before moving them to the proper surface. This Justify colt is out of a very good graded turf stakes winner, Foxysox (GB) whose progeny are 7-0-0-1 in dirt routes. He does possess good early foot and his impact on this race may come in the form of a pace presser but I don’t envision him being around at the end.

5. Magic Grant - was away slow in the Southwest (Gr III) but perhaps didn’t appreciate the heavy surface as he was always far back. His Springboard Mile prior to that wasn’t bad and if you are looking for a bomb to light up the exotic payoffs, you could do worse than this son of Good Magic.

6. Dimatic - Gun Runner colt has made slow but steady progress and gives the impression that though he has yet to run fast, there is a lot more upside left. Got nice inside out trip when breaking his maiden last time at OP but wandered greenly in the stretch once he drew away to a couple length lead. Asmussen adds blinkers and with Rosario in Saudi Arabia, Gafflione takes over, very live at a square price.

7. Timberlake - The Into Mischief colt from the Team Cox brigade of 3yo colts is the logical strong favorite based on his fashionable body of work as a juvenile. His main claim to fame was a 4 length romp during a deluge in the Champagne (Gr I) last Fall at the Big A at Belmont meet where he earned a stellar TG of 2. He shipped out west for the BC Juvy but was rank between horses early, never looked comfortable the remainder of the journey and finished a well beaten 4th in the wake of Fierceness romp. Tell me if you have heard this one before…highly touted two year old grade 1 stakes winner makes 3yo debut in large field Derby prep at very short price and proceeds to get beat when rank behind horses? Respect his resume and he has top level talent but I’m wary at taking 3-5 on him here. If I lose, I lose.

8. Next Level - Prefer to think of the Vino Rossi colt as ‘Not at this level’.

9. Lagynos - Kantharos colt faded after setting solid pace in the Smarty Jones on New Years Day. Not sure what the plan is here but it’s tough to see a scenario that bodes well for him that doesn’t include him running much faster than his lifetime TG top of 11.

10. Mena - RIP to his namesake, excellent jockey Miguel Mena, who was taken from us way too soon. Likely to get caught wide and doesn’t appear to be good enough to overcome though the Sniper has made him his longshot choice in here (see video above).

11. Just Steel - One thing for sure about this DW Lukas trained son of Justify, he doesn’t have much luck at the post postion draw, again drawing wide in a bulky field. Back in three weeks, he figures to take up a stalking position behind the first flight, but the tricky part is jock Vazquez must try to not lose too much ground on the turns. He won’t be short on conditioning making his 10th career start here and if the early pace is hot, he may get a clear shot at the top of the stretch. Personally I’m not convinced he wants this far and guessing he will loom and fade late.

12. Woodcourt - prevailed in allowance/optional claimer, closing from the back of the pack while moving up off 50k claim by Contreras. Tough spot.

13. Time for Truth - promising Omaha Beach colt is moored out in post 13 in his first foray into graded stakes and two turn territory. Not sure if trainer Moquett will instruct jockey Bejarano to try to gun to clear to the lead right from the gate but he is very fast and it appears like his best chance at success here.