The Preakmess

Real Writing on Racing 💯

🦀 The scratch of First Mission has not surprisingly created a tizzy of knee jerk reactions and dubious theories about how to “fix” the Preakness and Triple Crown. It is greater societal issue that bandaids are typically the way most people want to react to problems, both perceived and real. Racing mistakenly wound up applying one when raising takeout on wagers in order to pay purse increases instead of trying to grow the revenue pie larger. The problem with bandaids is that they are for temporary use and don’t actually do any of the healing, they just cover wounds.

The ideas of greater spacing or a bonus attached to participation don’t change the fundamental issues that exist for the Preakness, Triple Crown and high class stakes racing in general. If incentives are now needed to lure horses to run in multi-million dollar, grade 1 Classic races…we need to re-examine the entire structure of the graded stakes program before anything.

It’s difficult to argue that the current quantity of graded stakes versus an optimal number of them is a formula that is benefiting racing. Let me specify that racing is what we are considering here, obviously more graded blacktype available allows for greater bloodstock equity. Without going off on a million different tangents, let’s keep the Preakness at hand and focus solely on three year olds going long on the dirt. There are far too many too many grade 1 races for that class before the Triple Crown even begins. Furthermore, the three Triple Crown races should have some sort of higher designation along with the Met Mile, Breeders Cup Classic and several other wildly important grade 1 classics that SHOULD be placed at least a half-step higher than the other grade 1’s. A Grade 1A designation or something that separates Classic races from the La Brea.

‘No three year old Derby prep race should be a grade 1’ is a hill I am willing to defend till the bitter end. A grade 1 race should be a race that doesn’t have a plethora of alternatives to it and is a main goal of a campaign, not just a stepping stone. The Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies and Bluegrass shouldn’t be grade 1’s (in other words the equal in grade to the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont) and downgrading them should be where the industry starts. Perhaps if Tapit Trice and Age of Empire weren’t already grade 1 winners, their connections would be more likely to try the Preakness? Perhaps Cyberknife might have chosen to take a shot in last years Preakness rather than return post-Derby in the Matt Winn (Gr 3) had they not already had that grade 1 winner status in their pocket? Yes it’s speculation but despite pleas to the contrary, pushing the Preakness back two weeks thinking that connections that just got beat 10 lengths in the Derby will now reconsider running back is the wildest speculation of all. Arabian Lion and even Tapit’s Conquest running in a ungraded $100,000 race instead of the $1,500,000 Preakness later in the day shows the mentality of big barns and this race. Both would be less than 6-1 against this group coming in with 5 and 8 weeks of rest, yet the are in a spot with a purse less than an allowance race at Churchill or Belmont. This isn’t a criticism, it just shows that the extra two weeks isn’t going to lead to some avalanche of entries.

Having the Kentucky Derby be the first grade 1 of the year for three year old colts is the most logical idea that I could come up with. Having the Preakness be the second and one of only six available for three year old colts running a route of ground on the dirt (Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers, Pa Derby) would fill that field up a lot more effectively than any bribery from a bonus plan. If the Woodward and Cigar Mile can be grade 2’s, so can Derby preps and the Jim Dandy.

🎙️There is another issue that exists in terms of Kentucky Derby runners not running back that is rarely spoken of (big industry hush-hush) but I’m tired of writing about the Preakness already so I will save it for Monday nights Going in Circles Podcast. If you aren’t already tuning in, what are you waiting for?

🌻 Congrats are in order for trainer Randy Morse and the connections of Taxed for winning yesterdays Black Eyed Susan. They claimed her for $50000 last Fall as a maiden and did a nice job of developing her and she finally rewarded them with a breakthrough performance yesterday.

🍁 Maple Leaf Mel…wow! The Test is shaping up to be great and after fading in the Black Eyed Susan, perhaps Faiza might be ripe for a cutback later this summer too?

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Preakness Day Stakes Previews

Yes I skipped some races but have no real strong opinion on them and you don’t need to read me saying “Well he might run good or he might not” 30 more times. Good luck if you are playing and try to remember to have fun!

Sir Barton Stakes $100,000 3yo 1 1/16 dirt

1. Masterwork - appears to be a good claim. This isn’t a claiming race

2. Sheriff Ronnie - decent maiden prospect. This isn’t a maiden race

3. Tapit’s Conquest - I’d imagine that the connections were thinking if they were running at Pimlico on the third Saturday of May, it wouldn’t be in this spot. That said he still appears to be a relatively promising prospect, exits the Louisana Derby where he was up against it as a closer in a race with no pace at all. Unfortunately that appears to be the case here as well.

4. Arabian Lion - just missed in the Lexington when transferred back to Baffert’s care. Appears to be loose on the lead here and honestly I wonder if BB isn’t kicking himself for not entering in the Preakness as he’d likely be third choice at worst. Hard to endorse 2-5 shots but he seems to have this bunch over a barrel.

5. Feeling Woozy - Ham Smith and Angel Cruz representing the home team here with this Maryland-bred who is a decent enough sort but not in the same league as some others in here

6. Denington - improving colt seems to be a notch below the top two here as both have handled him relatively easily in prior matchups

Chick Lang (Gr 3) $200,000 3yo 6 furlongs

1. Havnameltdown - Baffert tried to stretch him out to a mile in Saudi Arabia and got nabbed on the wire by top Japanese runner Commissioner King with eventual UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake a few lengths back in third. Expect Saez to send him hard from post 1 to prevent any of the other speedy types from crossing over. Shipping back from the Middle East and then cross country from California, perhaps he is a tad bit vulnerable here especially if he has to really mix it up early.

2. Ryvit - has developed a lot of early speed after starting his career as a confirmed closer. That said Asmussen junior may be better off sitting right behind the prospective pace battle and try to pounce on the embattled leaders late. His TG figs have gotten to real racehorse level and if you are looking for a decent priced upsetter he might be interesting. Off lasix which is semi-maddening but that’s one of those unknowns that we are asked to deal with these days

3. Frosted Departure - cuts back to a sprint on short rest after running 4th in the Pat Day Mile on Derby day. Would benefit from a wild pace meltdown but it’s hard to endorse him too strongly.

4. Bristol Channel - steps waaaaaaaaay up in class after scoring in a Charles Town allowance last out. Better chance to him swimming the English Channel than beating this group

5. Super Chow - fast and consistent sprinter, he has a win over the track and is situated outside of Havnameltdown which are the positives. The negative is that he hasn’t broken a 5.5 TG which puts him a half notch behind some of the others in here. Also has a habit of drift out late which is gonna get him beat someday.

6. Prove Right - erratic type seems most likely to chase and quit. Has one huge fig race that happens to be in Maryland two back but this is a decidedly stronger group and that came while on lasix which isn’t the case today.

7. Prince of Jericho - cutting back makes sense as most Munnings don’t thrive past a mile. That said going from 9f to 6f is a big change and even though he will benefit from a speed duel, will husband Russell be able to keep him close enough to run down the early pace types? Hardworking wife Russell has been otherworldly since the action moved over to Prop Joe territory at Pimlico but Prince of Jericho should be a decent enough price to consider

Gallorette (Gr 3) $100,000 3&up F/M 1 1/16 turf

I looked at this race and really don’t have much advice to offer. Hopefully it remains intact and there are no scratches because while a seven horse field isn’t huge, it’s a pretty competitive bunch. I’d favor Whitebeam (GB) and Sopran Basilea (Ire) and don’t really like anyone else.

Dinner Party (Gr 3) $200,000 3&up 1 1/8 turf

There isn’t much early speed in here unlike his last when he was tremendous, but I’m gonna try Hurricane Dream (Fr) again at anything near his 7-2 morning line. Not sure why Emmanuel didn’t fire last time but he has shown tactical speed in the past and perhaps Ortiz, who won his only mount on him on the lead last summer, might be willing to use it. Have spent most of his career betting against Atone as he used to run good figs but not win against stakes company on a regular basis, not changing now.

Preakness (Gr 1) $1,500,000 3yo 1 3/16 dirt

1. National Treasure - adds blinkers for Bob Baffert’s return to the Triple Crown. I’d expect him to show sped from the rail and trying to wire them as that might be a better option than trying to pass horses which he thus far has seemed reluctant to do.

2. Chase the Chaos - early betting had him at 9-1. He should be 90-1

3. Mage - it has sort of been a given that he will break slow but it’s easy to forget that he broke sharp first time out in late January. He ran a huge race in the Derby and there is always the risk of him bouncing off of that effort but he has a big chance to head to the Belmont with a chance to make history, and that chance greatly increases if he breaks with the field. He will be a short price and I don’t blame anyone for trying to beat him but he feels pretty formidable against this group

4. Coffeewithchris - the local feel good story trained by Maryland lifer, John Salzman, bred by the NTRA’s Tom Rooney. He has speed and has run some good TG figs but the distance is a concern.

5. Red Route One - deep, deep closer was negatively impacted with the defection of First Mission. Perhaps his ownership group should consider finding a rabbit for this guy as he is always going to be at the mercy of pace dynamics? Chance to pick up minor awards here but lacking a swift early pace it’s hard to see him sweeping by them all.

6. Perform - wasn’t nominated to the Triple Crown which required the ownership group to cut a huge check ($150,000) to play. Hasn’t run figures that give him much chance (TG 8.25 is top) though he does have a decent pattern and may be ready to move forward. Is one of three by stallion Good Magic in the race, an amazing fact for the young sires first crop.

7. Blazing Sevens - atypical Brown runner coming off of his first good race since he won the Champagne (Gr 1) in the slop back in October. In general his runners develop slow and steady but this son of Good Magic has been erratic though skipping the Derby to focus on this much softer spot makes sense. Tough to love here but he can win if he moves forward from his 3rd in the Bluegrass, I just don’t have any idea if that’s coming

Flashback video to another short field Preakness from the past, this one with a just little more firepower than todays version. The 1986 Preakness