The Defection Derby

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Man things have been awfully quiet on the Kentucky Derby news front…seriously if they don’t run the race soon it’s going to be a match race between the last two unscratched horses left. We will have a lot to say on a variety of these topics on The Big Monday show (Check it out here) and I’m sure we will jot some thoughts down for this space but that’s a story for next week. It’s Kentucky Derby-time and no matter how high the dysfunction level gets for this industry, Kentucky Derby day is still special. Let’s get to the previews!

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Race 1 Allowance race $127,000 3&up 6.5 furlongs dirt (10:30 am post 😳)

Not a stakes race but the opener during the Breakfast at Churchill segment of the day (where they serve Fried Chicken, off-label bourbon and Ale 8 for the low, low Derby day price of $499) features a pair of runners that sure look like they are headed to stakes company soon. Extra Anejo destroyed a MSW field last October at Keeneland running a 4.25 TG despite being galloped home the last 150 yards. Outside of Arabian Knight, no horse created more buzz as a 2yo maiden breaker than the son of Into Mischief did. He squares off against a less heralded though also super impressive maiden winner Federal Judge who cruised to an easy 4 1/2 lengths score on Aprils fools day at Oaklawn, recording a 3.25 TG. The 3 year sprint division could sure use a couple of players like those two.

Derby City Distaff $750,000 4&up FM 7 furlongs

1. Hot and Sultry - cuts back to a one turn sprint after showing speed versus the top of the older filly division in the Azeri (Gr II) and Apple Blossom (Gr I) against Clairiere and Secret Oath. Not sure where she is placed against top sprinters from the rail but she has to improve under new rider Joel Rosario, to get in the mix with the top two.

2. Goodnight Olive - it’s been over two years since she has tasted defeat, reeling off 7 in a row since her second start. She looked pretty good off the layoff last out in the Madison (Gr I) at Keeneland (earned a 0 TG) and her biggest strength is her tractability as Irad Ortiz can place her almost anywhere. Obvious favorite and a deserved one but not unbeatable as Munnys Gold proved on Friday.

3. Wicked Halo - newly turned 4 year old filly beat Matareya at Oaklawn Park in the Matron, running a new lifetime top TG of 0, the same as Goodnight Olive ran at Keeneland. She has had success over the Churchill strip and we are playing her to pair that fig up or move forward from that and spring the upset.

4. Travel Column - she is dipping her toes back into the deep water and is in grave danger of drowning

5. Matareya - tailed off last summer after looking like the best middle distance/sprinting 3yo filly in the country in the spring. Bounced back with a sharp effort at Oaklawn against Wicked Halo and has every right to improve in her second off of a layoff.

6. My Destiny - her destiny in this race may involve battling with Travel Column to avoid being last.

Distaff Turf Mile (Gr II) $500,000 4&up FM 1 mile Turf

1. Sharp Hero - she appears to be a rabbit without a stablemate

2. Speak of the Devil - she burst on the American distaff turf scene with a strong showing of late speed to win this race exactly a year ago, but just as quickly faded away after a nondescript effort in the Just a Game (Gr I) on Belmont day. Ran okay at GP in March off the long layoff, a race where she didn’t look like she was particularly well meant. Not sure how to gauge her coming in here, the filly inside her in the gate should ensure a decent pace but I’m probably gonna let her beat me

3. Haughty - there is a valuable lesson in this filly’s PP’s when looking at speed figures when evaluating a horses performance. She was a very consistent runner throughout her short career, almost always running well while putting up decent figures. Then at Saratoga last summer she was entered in the Lake Placid for 3yo fillies, a race that was essentially a Chad Brown quartet vs the formidable With the Moonlight, a top filly who has little early speed. Haughty was the fastest of the Brown’s and as such was gifted the lead by her barn mates and with a motionless Jose Ortiz she set dawdling fractions before sprinting home, covering the last 3 furlongs in about 33 seconds. She recorded a stellar TG of 5.75 after having gotten four consecutive 9’s but it was earned under close to optimal circumstances which are unlikely to be found again. So obviously something went amiss after that race as she hasn’t run since but for us in this spot she is a pass as her figs just aren’t really competitive except for the last one. Even with natural progression from 3 to 4, it’s hard to see her being able to beat older, faster mares. One of the keys to handicapping and evaluating form these days isn’t simply accepting the figures themselves at face value but analyzing the factors that led to possibly inflating or deflating the final number, giving you an edge over the competition.

4. Wakanaka (Ire) - along the same vein as the Haughty commentary, taking this mares 9.5 TG at face value, when she finished 5th by 7 lengths in the Pegasus Filly Turf would be a mistake too. She was full of run and traveling well up the inside rounding the final turn before she got absolutely stopped as she straightened out down the stretch, jockey Joel Rosario almost coming out of the irons at that point. She never recovered and galloped home from that point. I’d expect trainer Bill Mott will have her cranked up for this spot, a race she is fully capable of winning on her best and is the one to beat in our eyes. Wakanaka Forever!

5. Spendarella - the 4 yo Karakontie filly was an emerging star last season when she was forced to the sidelines after crushing the field in the Del Mar Oaks (Gr I). Strictly the one to beat though we will hope she needs one.

6. Sister Lou Ann - scratched

7. Fluffy Socks - she always runs good, she just never wins. What else can you say?

8. Freedom Speaks - scratched

Knicks Go ®️ $175,000 4&up 1 mile Dirt

Good luck, this is a very difficult race to figure out

Turf Sprint (Gr II) $500,000 4&up 5.5 furlongs turf

Big Invasion looms the one to beat here though with his running style, traffic is always a possibility. Bad Beat Brian, Nothing Better, Just Might and Arrest Me Red are the others that could logically wind up in the winners circle.

Pat Day Mile (Gr II) $500,000 3yo colt 1 mile dirt

1. Kangaroo Court - Cal bred has been running big numbers while sprinting in state-bred company at Santa Anita. Seems like he will be committed to the lead from post one and will take them as far as he can go. Not a lot of Dad’s Caps data re: one turn miles but he did attract Johnny V though it’s hard to see him wiring this group

2. Tall Boy - returns from getting smoke stacked in the UAE Derby and not much to go on here but I’d lean elsewhere

3. Lugan Knight - his career seemed to be progressing well before a fought trip in the Gotham and a dull try in the Lafayette at Keeneland. Tough to endorse in current form

4. Midnight Rising - scratched

5. Echo Again - big time maiden breaker last Summer at Saratoga hasn’t lived up to the expectations of that race. Cuts back to one turn and while he could improve enough to be a factor, it’s a guessing game with him

6. Frosted Departure - erratic sort hasn’t been in good form but McPeek/Hernandez duo is most dangerous when they are operating under the radar. Tough call in a tough race

7. Fort Bragg - showed speed before tiring in the Florida Derby. Theoretically the cut back to a mile might work in his favor but honestly I don’t know how good he is or how he really wants to be ridden.

8. Bourbon Bash - like many Lukas horses, not sure what the plan is and he doesn’t seem to be developing.

9. General Jim - developing nicely for Shug, he won the Swale running down the prolific sprinter Super Chow and was supposedly prepping for a Fountain of Youth run before having a minor setback and this spot became the spring target. Has done nothing but progress since his debut last August and he would be no surprise if he got the job done.

10. Curly Jack - hasn’t developed much since last fall when he captured the initial Derby trail points race over this surface. Slow starts in both 2023 starts and a good start, a fast pace and a clean run, he might be a live longshot to consider.

11. Gilmore - his non-synthetic races aren’t terrible and with a good trip he might be an ‘on the board’ factor

12. Gun Pilot - Gun Runner colt hasn’t really developed much since breaking his maiden last November at CD. Probably be over-bet and I’d fade before I’d use

13. Damon’s Mound - last summers early season star for the under appreciated Michelle Lovell, he fell apart in the fall, tiring in his first and only two turn try and then a no show in a grass sprint stakes in his 3yo debut a few weeks back at Keeneland. Clearly has the ability and at a decent price might be a clever play to regain his missing form.

14. Freezing Point - outran his odds in the Lafayette though it’s unclear if that was just a weak race or this colt has really improved. We will guess good fortune smiled on his last trip and head straight to fadesville here.

American Turf (Gr II) $500,000 3yo 8.5 furlongs turf

1. Major Dude - has improved virtually his entire career, runs consistently and has enough early speed to get himself into a great pocket trip in this spectacular race. Major contender.

2. Far Bridge - won a insanely tough maiden special weight race at GP first time out in January over Carl Spackler and followed that up with an easy allowance score over the same surface before changing hands in a private deal, giving Pletcher a very strong hand in the three year old colt turf division, starting with this race

3. Mendelssohns March - ran well in his only turf start, took a crack at the Derby trail in the Bluegrass but grass races, even an awful tough one like this, should suit him better than dirt races.

4. Talk of the Nation - his race in the Columbia at Tampa needs to be watched to get the full effect of his awesomeness. It was a dominant performance where the Quality Road colt just disdainfully cruises by subsequent grade 3 winner Mo Stash, after being hung wide on the turns. This is a very good field, most of the top three year old grass runners are here but I’m betting Talk of the Nation at anything remotely close to his 10-1 morning line.

5. Johannes - west coast invader arrives in stellar form with a 3 for 3 record on the grass. The 15-1 morning line is absurd and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who uses him in this spot.

6. Behind Enemy Lines (GB) - ridiculous 30-1 morning line on a colt who has one start in the US and it was a winning effort in a stakes at GP. His best puts him in a clear position to hit the board in here

7. Desert Duke - son of Kittens Joy has good speed and improving figures that are usually found in 30-1 morning line horses

8. Mo Stash - 4th in last falls BC Juvy turf, he was no match for Talk of the Nation in his first of the year but he improved when taking the Transylvania (Gr III) at Keeneland in April showing the incredible depth of this field

9. Anglophile - was second in his only stakes try last out and sits at 50-1 morning line.

10. Otago- has a solid record of 5-2-1-1 and won a FL bred stakes on the grass last out at Tampa yet feels overmatched in this race

11. Carl Spackler - exited the Far Bridge maiden race to crush a MSW field the following month by close to 9 lengths. Has to deal with a wide draw and with so many good horses in here, any disadvantage will be magnified.

12. Funtastic Again - scratched

13. Andthewinneris - deep closer adds blinkers from wide draw. Will need to rally from far back and Flo Go has his work cut out for him trying to work out a trip from post 12.

14. Webslinger - outside of a dull non-effort in the BC Juvy Turf, he is always right there at the wire. Doesn’t have much speed so he is likely to be at the back of the pack and needs a fast pace to close into which seems to be a dubious proposition

15. Wadsworth - scratched

16. Scoobie Quando - picked a rough spot from a terrible post to make his turf debut.

Kentucky Derby (Gr I) $3,000,000 3yo 1 1/4

1. Hit Show - drew outside in the Wood and it cost him as he was wide throughout and couldn’t hold off the late charge of lightly regarded contender Miles Ahead. Not a fan of the two start campaign either, especially when the first start wasn’t particularly taxing. His chief issue is a lack of tactical speed, he will need to be lucky during the first half mile of the race that things fall exactly in place so that he isn’t caught in a situation where he has to do too much as he has a grinding late move and getting stopped or even steadied will spell doom. Drawing post 1 is tough for him as Franco is going to have to break sharp and push him early to avoid getting shuffled too far back. Stamina should not be an issue though and he is a sleeper if he gets some early good fortune.

2. Verifying - problem number one is our reservation about his ability to negotiate the 1 1/4 distance. Comes into the race off of a perfect trip runner up finish in the Bluegrass where he had no real excuses except just not good enough to hold off Tapit Trice. He isn’t without a chance but his best style seems to be up close stalking the pace so his break from the gate will be extra important as with Hit Show, he needs to be out alertly and pushed toward the front early so that the outside horses don’t collapse down on him.

3. Two Phil’s - Larry Rivelli to his credit has pushed a lot of the right buttons with this colt. Had him ready to run last summer, broke his maiden at Colonial then found a nice easy spot for his stakes debut at Canterbury in the Shakopee Juvenile at 6f before sending him to the wolves for his two turn debut in the Breeders Futurity (Gr I), his only weak race. He recovered nicely to win the Street Sense (Gr III) over the Churchill surface, albeit a sloppy one. His two FG forays were both tougher trips than they looked because of wide draws and the Jeff Ruby (Gr III) over a synthetic surface, was a gamble that paid off. The Hard Spun colt does have two races going 9 furlongs, has a solid foundation of 8 lifetime races and his TG pattern is great (lifetime from first race 15-11-7.75-7.75-7.75-4-4-2). He can absolutely win if he gets a fortunate trip and his latest success was his development, not affinity for the Tapeta surface.

4. Confidence Game - I have no confidence that this one start prep season will be sufficient preparation for the Candy Ride colt to negotiate the grueling 10 furlong Classic. It isn’t lost on us that his only effort that is remotely good enough to be competitive in the Derby came over a sloppy track. Big fans of Keith Desormeaux but can not get onboard this plan.

5. Tapit Trice - often Derby trail contenders can elicit some widely different views. Some, like this expensive Tapit colt, manage to attract some wild comments about how great or not great he was based upon the same race. In the aftermath of his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he broke slowly as usual and swept by the entire field to win going away, praise and scorn were both shared on horse racing social media. The positive viewpoint was that he showed immense an ability to overcome a very difficult trip over that particular course where deep closers almost never prevail. The naysayers pointed out the slow beginning, the fact that jockey Luis Saez had to ride Tapit Trice hard the entire way versus the soft competition. Todd Pletcher seemed to fall in the middle and decided that more seasoning was needed and pencilled in the Bluegrass Stakes for his final Derby prep. He did break better in Lexington and Saez was able to get him a less stressful trip while not needing to make up so much ground, resulting in him wearing down Verifying, who was at least a notch above the Tampa Bay Derby competition. He has talent, the pedigree to get the distance, an elite jockey and has run fast enough but the odds are that he is in the back 25% of the field as they turn to head down the backside and with an iffy pace scenario…can he overcome that and being wide when making his run? The post draw is pretty much meaningless for Tapit Trice, he just needs to break semi decent but will also need help. He can win, it just won’t be with my backing

6. Kingsbarns - in the 2015 Todd Pletcher came into the Kentucky Derby with a lightly raced yet undefeated colt named Materiality. That son of Afleet Alex had been an expensive yearling purchase ($260k) who was successfully pinhooked into being an even more expensive two year old in training purchase (400k). Kingsbarns was also an expensive yearling purchase (250k) who was successfully pinhooked into being an even more expensive two year old in training purchase (800k). Materiality debuted in a one turn race in January at Gulfstream Park, Kingsbarns debuted in a one turn race in January at Gulfstream Park. Materiality easily won a two turn race in his second start as did Kingsbarns as well. Materiality made his graded stakes debut in his third start, a wire to wire win in the Florida Derby, setting slow fractions when doing so. Kingsbarns made his graded stakes debut in his third start, a wire to wire win in the Louisiana Derby, setting slow fractions when doing so. Will the eerie similarities between the two continue? If you are a Kingsbarns backer you’d hope not as Materiality hesitated at the start, was away last and weaved his way through the field after that disastrous beginning to finish 6th beaten a little less than 8 lengths behind American Pharoah. He ran back in the Belmont stakes, was sent off third choice, chased American Pharoah for a mile, stopped around the final turn and faded to be last. That was Materiality’s final start and sadly he was put down as a result of complications from laminitis the following year. Does this mean that Kingsbarns is a toss? Of course not…there is no American Pharoahlining up against him and every race is it’s own unique happening. However the lesson is to beware of horses that have had nothing but easy trips, that have never faced any real adversity and have beaten up on mostly second rate company, especially at underlaid odds.

   

7. Reincarnate - He was impressive in the Sham at Santa Anita before the Baffert purge to Yakteenville. Got a tough trip after a slow beginning in the Rebel though he showed grit by closing ground over a sloppy track that he seemed perplexed by early in the race. His 3rd in the Arkansas Derby last out was easy to dismiss at first glance though he does have some positive attributes, namely good early speed and he has run good figs. Is flying completely under the radar here and even with the late scratches jumbling the pace scenario, I’d give him some consideration as this years Medina Spirit 2.0.

8. Mage - one of the more interesting horses in this field. The son of Good Magic is less experienced than what we’d normally prefer but this is a field of horses that are full of holes in their resumes. His primary issue outside of not having the traditional foundation found in successful Derby runners is his tardiness leaving the gate. His debut was sharp, he broke fine and sped through a wire to wire win on the Pegasus World Cup undercard with a solid TG fig. His follow up was a tough trip 4th when stretching out in the Fountain of Youth, though he did show determination, signaling he was a colt moving forward. His Florida Derby was another race marred by a slow start yet he showed serious ability sweeping past 2yo champ Forte on the far turn before getting run down late by the same runner. He keeps getting better, his fitness level should be improved after two wide trips in his two stakes appearances, there is tactical speed to be used if he leaves the gate better and he very well may have another move forward coming.

9. Skinner - scratched

10. Practical Move - scratched

11. Disarm - his three year old campaign has a rushed sort of feel that rarely is parlayed into Kentucky Derby success. His three races since coming off the bench after an ultra impressive Saratoga maiden breaker, have all been okay but left you walking away thinking that wasn’t his best shot. His pedigree certainly seems to be stout enough and of all the horses in the field, he has really not had a signature effort…the issue is perhaps he has reached his current ceiling and just isn’t good enough? The opposing view is that he needed start number one, start number two he was the only member of the field closing into a dawdling pace and the wheel back into the Lexington was a necessity, not an ideal spot. Of course he is wheeling back again and a little piece of me hopes that he runs huge so that the big trainers who space their Derby horses to the point where even NASA is concerned, take note. Alas his Derby destiny seems to be a fair effort when running 9th.

12. Jace’s Road - he simply doesn’t look like he will get the 10 furlong trip as he has competed in five stakes and lost ground in the stretch of each of them except one, the Gun Runner at FG. That took place at a meet where his trainer won at a 37% rate and he was allowed to set an uncontested pace against a soft group, something that is unlikely to happen today. Seems to be a rabbit of sorts though hIs only prayer as slim as it is, would be to try to wore them as he hasn’t shown any desire to pass horses at all.

13. Sun Thunder - the biggest question about him might be…is he good? Was the Risen Star (Gr II) a fluke? His subsequent efforts in the Louisiana Derby and Bluegrass were uninspiring, he is a one run closer that ran evenly while finding traffic which obviously is an issue in a 19 horse field. Not crazy about his pedigree at 10f either and finding it difficult to warm up to him.

14. Angel of Empire - outside of one odd try on the grass at Kentucky Downs last fall, this Classic Empire colt has never run a bad race. Stamped himself a contender when rallying from far back under a perfect Luis Saez ride to win the Risen Star and backed that up with an even more impressive score in the Arkansas Derby. In the Oaklawn race, he circled the field on the turn, blowing past several of the Derby field participants to win drawing away under Flavian Prat. Seems to handle traffic ok, has run excellent figs his last two and honestly has the feel of a real contender. The only concern is did he fire his best shot in Arkansas and can he do it again or will we see regression?

15. Forte - Todd Pletcher came into the 2023 season knowing his champion 2yo colt already had a lot of eligibility points towards the Kentucky Derby, a luxury no one else had. He chose a two race prep schedule which ordinarily we wouldn’t love but in this case, he had 5 races as a juvenile, with a pair of them being around two turns. In other words, a solid foundation. He made light work of the Fountain of Youth field but had to overcome two big obstacles in the Florida Derby, a terrible post draw and the rapidly improving Mage. Forte was able to make it back into the winners circle once again though not without making it interesting by having to run down Mage in deep stretch after that one had circled past him on the far turn. The adversity likely was a positive especially with only two races since November but a few nagging questions loom. Namely has he reached his peak already and is that good enough to overcome whatever issues that he will have to overcome to win? Respect the tremendous job Pletcher has done managing this colt’s career to the point where I think Forte might not be much better than many of the other contenders as the calendar flips over to May, despite his gaudy resume. Rumors have swirled around the Churchill backstretch in recent days about his status though most seem unfounded at this point in time.

16. Raise Cain - he ran great in the Gotham over a sloppy track with a great setup for his one run closing style. However has no other races on his resume that would lead you to believe that he is a serious candidate without some sort of downpour occurring and getting a supersonic pace meltdown.

17. Derma Sotogake - Let me first say that I’m not using him but his UAE Derby was probably the most impressive ‘tour-de-force’ of the Kentucky Derby trail this season (Arabian Knight in the Southwest a close second). That dominating wire to wire win coupled with increasing realization that Japanese trained horses are problem on the international stage, has stirred up a lot more buzz than the typical Dubai winner would. Is it warranted? On a sheer talent scale it’s tough to deny that Derma Sotogake is among the tops in this spotty group assembled for the 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby. The thing is that the race isn’t won on sheer talent, a host of other factors, some tangible like post positions, fractions and trips…others like travel hangovers aren’t. You’ll hear all sorts of stuff like the UAE Derby hasn’t been productive as a prep (it hasn’t) but that really has no bearing on this years race. My question is how much does all the travel affect a young horse going into the most chaotic, stressful situation that they will ever face? As pointed out with Continuar, these two have been on the road since early February having shipped from Tokyo to Saudi Arabia, then to Dubai then to Chicago then finally shipping to Louisville last week. We used to hear a lot about how shipping to Dubai for the World Cup would knock American horses off schedule for months afterward and this scenario would seem to be quite a bit more taxing. Top 3 year old Taiba shipped to compete in the Saudi Cup on 2-25 and has only had two easy works since returning with no imminent races scheduled. IMO a Japanese based horse can surely win the Kentucky Derby, they just might be better off prepping to do it via domestic preps in the future.

18. Rocket Can - I just don’t see him as being good enough. His tough trip win in the Holy Bull (he was 4 wide both turns) was one of the slowest south Florida Derby preps in recent memory and his subsequent efforts were ordinary.

19. Lord Miles - scratched

20. Continuar - scratched

21. Cyclone Mischief - His coming out party was an allowance race at GP going a one turn mile where he got a perfect trip behind fast fractions. He has lost ground in the stretch in his two stakes tries at GP and wouldn’t be close to even being in the field had Mage not got jostled in the stretch run of the FoY. His only contribution to this years Derby is as pace presser from the outside.

22. Mandarin Hero - I have been an unabashed fan of international participation in our big races as it is healthy for the sport and introduces a lot of new eyes on our domestic game. This guy ran a bang up race to be second in the Santa Anita Derby in his US debut and with a tad bit better fortune might have won and been one of my top choices. That said we have had very few Japanese horses come to compete on the Derby trail period, let alone stay for more than one race so we are in uncharted waters with him. I prefer him to Derma Sotogake mostly because of the different travel circumstances. I don’t know if he can win or not but his presence makes this a better race.

23. King Russell - We didn’t even know that he was on the Derby trail prior to the Arkansas Derby field crossing the wire and his connections hadn’t nominated him to the Triple Crown so it appears they hadn’t either. Obviously has improved at the right time but he needs a super fast pace though if he gets one, you know he will be eating up ground at the end.