The Buzz-less Oaks

Real Writing on Racing 💯

May 05, 2023

*We wrote much of this before all hell broke loose at Churchill with scratches galore, the CDI banishment template getting dusted off and general horseracing social media anarchy broke out

No day of racing on the North American continent is bigger than Kentucky Derby day. It’s the most famous of all our races, an iconic sporting and cultural event that has bridged the gap between the past and today. Churchill Downs jams so many people into its historic and ever expanding twin spires laden structures that the 147 acres that it covers in the heart of south Louisville, becomes the third largest city in the Commonwealth for about 10 hours every first Saturday in May. Last year 16 million people watched ‘the run for the roses’ on NBC, a massive number in these days of cord cutting, and similar numbers are expected again for this years running. There is never a lack of buzz around a Kentucky Derby.

The Kentucky Oaks is the companion race to the Derby and despite existing in it’s massive shadow, the status and standing of the Oaks and the high quality undercard has become a huge day in its own right. Some younger racing aficionados might be surprised to find out that the Kentucky Oaks wasn’t even a grade 1 race till the 1977 running and that prior to 2000’s, the 100,000 plus sized crowd that’s typical now, didn’t happen. That said this years race might be the least talked about Oaks in memory as despite the accelerated social media vibes around horseracing at this time of the year, almost none of it is about the Friday afternoon feature. Last year there was a lot more star power heading to the race as Secret Oath had dominated early in the season, even taking a swing at the boys before refocusing on the distaffers. Plus another contender, Echo Zulu, was undefeated and mostly untested, Nest looked like she was a star in the making (she was!) and Kathleen O cleaned up the south Florida girls division for Shug. The road to the 2023 Kentucky Oaks feels like it has been shrouded in a fog even with a prohibitive favorite in Wet Paint, which is too bad because it looks like it’s a wide open, competitive race from where we stand. More on that later.

We will preview all the stakes over the Kentucky Derby weekend, some more in-depth than others but as always we will offer strong opinions, weak opinions, complete guesses and some food for thought! Please send us your comments on the big races and any thoughts, opinions and views that you might have as well! Best of luck to everyone playing or participating and remember this is supposed to be fun!

🌸Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Previews 🌸

Alysheba (Gr II) $600,000 4&up 8.5 furlongs

Art Collector - we were adamantly against this guy at 4-5 in the New Orleans Classic (Gr II) and happened to be correct as he got a bit of an uncomfortable trip and West Will Power got the jump on him and that was that. A different scenario today as there is no other speed to rocket to the lead in this spot, Alvarado will have to play cat and mouse with Prat and West Will Power as they are the two with early speed. Depending on how the track is playing (3 dirt races prior to this one but the inside was shaky on Wednesday) perhaps going to the lead from the rail and dictating how the race will be run would be the prudent choice? The other option is let WWP clear and take up a stalking position outside him though if you are betting Art Collector, on the lead is probably the better option (IMO). Don’t love him but I can see him as one of the two likely winners however.
Last Samurai - has been great at OP but he loves that track and he doesn’t love CD. Figures to sit trip behind Art Collector/West Will Power and get the jump on Rich Strike and Smile Happy but I’m tossing him. Lukas is terrible at CD (7% from 1081 start sample size) and his numbers with Saez aren’t good either, something which is hard to do.
Rich Strike - it’s been so long since Rich Strike stans took shots at me for telling the truth about him (he is as ordinary as a decent horse can be) that I’m almost sad that he has kinda snuck into this spot and seems to be flying under the radar. He has had some minor setbacks this spring and the distance of this race may be a touch shorter than he would prefer but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could be third in here.
West Will Power - the fastest consistently of this bunch, may try to put Art Collector to his inside again though I’m not convinced that Prat will put him on the lead and may be content to stalk. Logical favorite, most likely winner, not much else clever to say.
Smile Happy - not sure of the logic that Mr McPeek used in wheeling him back in 2 weeks into the Oaklawn Mile (Gr III) after his seasons debut in an allowance race. I’m sorta happy that he did because it mucks up his form a little and this race seems more suitable and IMO he is a live upset possibility at anything close to his 8-1 ML. I do hope that he tries him around one turn at some point.
Milliken - solid gelding that always seem to run his race is in good form but it’s hard to figure out a trip for him in here that doesn’t involve him losing ground.
Giant Game - colt is in excellent form….if this was an entry level allowance race he’d be a major factor. It’s not an entry level allowance race.

Modesty (Gr III) $300,000 9 furlongs turf 4&up FM (RIP AP😔)

Sweet Dani Girl - expect her to shoot out to the lead from post one as she is two for two on the lead in grass races, albeit against weaker restricted FL bred company. This is ambitious landing spot for her, especially at 9 furlongs, but lone speed always has to be respected.
Didia (Arg) - southern hemisphere bred filly is on a 6 race win streak including an ‘easier than it looked’ score in the Tom Benson Memorial over the bizarre Fair Grounds turf last out. Has run good TG figs, should get a decent enough trip from the inside and the lower profile connections might get you a couple of extra points on her price.
Henrietta Topham - *(SCRATCHED) raced evenly in her seasons debut 19 days ago at Keeneland. She will be totally overlooked on the board and will have to do a lot better than last out but at a huge price she is playable underneath in exotics.
Sparkle Blue - makes her first start against older and as a 4 yo she should improve but she is going to have to be quite a bit better than her 3yo form. That said she should sit a good, ground saving trip right behind the first flight and while I am not crazy about her chances in here, her hitting the board wouldn’t be a huge shock.
Lady Rockstar (GB) - adds blinkers off of dull effort going 11 furlongs at GP in early March. She really only has one race in the US that would get her in the mix here so tread lightly.
McKulick (GB) - consistent filly always runs her race with a 8-3-4-1 record though she might want to go a little further than this trip. Irad lands here, Brown very good off layoff, obvious contender. However she is making her older horse debut and the only fig she has that might win this was her last one and she is 0-2 at CD, so keep that in mind.
Shantisara (Ire) - winner of a slow paced Hillsborough (Gr II) at Tampa last out looms as the one to beat here. She is consistently the fastest in this group, has enough tactical speed to not be too far back and almost always fires.
New Year’s Eve - was our favorite horse last year on this day when capturing the Edgewood at 14-1 as our key horse of Derby weekend. Tailed off after that huge run over the shaky turf course of last spring but was going well late when 3rd behind Didia in her first race of 2023 at FG 5 weeks ago. Threat on best though the 5-1 ML isn’t that enticing.
Kate’s Kingdom - synthetic specialist tries grass again but this is a lot tougher than she has ever faced before and is tough to recommend.

Eight Belles (Gr II) $500,000 3yo fillies 7 furlongs

Condensation - Munnys Gold looms as a huge favorite in this spot but the race for the runner up spot is pretty contentious. This filly has gotten better slowly but surely and she needs to improve again to get on the board but Hartman has excellent numbers cutting back to a sprint and she will likely get overlooked.
Sabra Tuff - Tuff spot to make your seasons debut. Also Tuff to make a case that she could be a factor without 43.2 half mile insanity which is highly unlikely.
Olivia Twist - she is 3 for 3 in races that Wet Paint isn’t in but this isn’t any easier. Toss her two off track races and her form perks up quite a bit. Fincher solid numbers on the cutback and she’s another solid bottom of your ticket possibility.
Effortlesslyelgant - I honestly have no idea what to expect from this filly who showed speed and faded in the two turn Ashland (Gr I) last out. I mean I wouldn’t be surprised if she ran a big race and was third and I wouldn’t be surprised if she sputtered home 8th.
Grand Love - sometimes horses have pedigrees that belie what the horse in question really wants to do. In this case, Grand Love, who was tremendous breaking her maiden at Saratoga going 6.5 furlongs, has been a disappointment since, all two turn races where she showed speed or chased and faded. Being by Gun Runner out of a Grand Slam mare, making her a 1/2 sister to grade 1 winner at 9 furlongs, Malibu Prayer, she figured to carry her speed around two turns to at least 8.5 furlongs but that simply hasn’t happened. The cutback to 7f and a change of tactics might be what this filly really wants and at a big price perhaps she can get a piece of the pie.
Red Carpet Ready - speaking of horses not always lining up with their pedigrees, this talented filly by promising young stallion Oscar Performance has been very, very good sprinting on the dirt. Now as a son of Kittens Joy, Oscar Performances success with grass runners was not a big surprise, but that he has sired a multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter has been. She cuts back (like most everyone else) to 7f after weakening late in the Davona Dale (Gr II) after setting fast fractions. Logical second choice over track where she is 2 for 2 for Rusty Arnold, must avoid getting too close to the Sun or in this case, the scorching early pace set by Munnys Gold.
Positano Sunset - has found stakes company to be too much so far in her brief career but she does possess the right style that may be able to take advantage of a rapid pace in here at a big price.
Accede - impressive maiden breaker at GP 50 days ago is thrown directly to the wolves here and we will be Operation Fadesville
Munnys Gold - Churchill Downs only plays music in the post parade for the Derby and Oaks but should consider blasting out The Monster Mash when this blazing streak of lightning hits the track. She hasn’t beaten fillies of this quality yet, the ones that she did face however, were eviscerated into little piles of dust. Anything can happen in a horse race but it will take a monumental effort or her to throw in an off day to make that happen. As my partner on the Big Monday Show, Barry Spears says, Munnys Gold gives off Gamine vibes, a rare ‘stop what you are doing to watch her run’ type of horse.

Unbridled Sidney (L) $300,000 3&up F/M 5.5f turf

As an official policy, the Going in Circles Digest doesn’t do extensive previews of turf sprints but we have a few thoughts here that we’d like to share. Namely we will be trying to beat Caravel as we have seen her throw in ‘off efforts’ before and her one race over this CD turf course wasn’t very good. This is clearly a “play against” bet more than anything, trying to capitalize on an over bet favorite on a day with huge pools. Oeuvre, Bay Storm, Sarah Harper and Majestic d’Oro are the ones I believe I will be using.

La Troienne (Gr I) $750,000 4&up F/M 8.5 furlongs

Played Hard - solid grade 3 mare tries the big girls again, this time from the rail with Johnny V in the irons. There is a lot of speed in this race and she is gonna have to try to hold her position, especially with Search Results, Classy Edition and Society drawn outside of her. Needs to run her very best to be competitive here and off the bench I’m sending her to Fadesville.
Search Results - took a race before she was at her best last year off the layoff and with this being a contentious race, she will need her A game here. Might wind up with an excellent trip if some of the others speedy types knock heads early, has the ability to fire minus TG numbers and trainer is usually excellent off of a layoff. Is this a Phipps prep or is she ready to roll? You make the call but I’m leaning towards using her.
Sixtythreecaliber - feels like Mr. Amoss is bringing a knife to a gun fight here.
Secret Oath - she has never run three consecutive big efforts in a row, a task that she will be required to do to beat this talented group. Coming back on 20 days rest and shipping from Oaklawn she is a big play against here and Lukas has been dreadful in the 3rd race off of a layoff category (5% from a sample size of 141). She does figure to get a dream trip with all the early pace types signed on but at a short price, I’m trying to beat her.
Soul of an Angel - doesn’t appear to have a prayer
Classy Edition - ever wonder how many win pictures Todd Pletcher has in his house? I mean he could wallpaper the living room just with graded stakes wins by four year old fillies going long on the dirt and still have enough left to cover the walls of the Butlers quarters. This Classic Empire filly may not be ready to beat this caliber yet but the New York bred has done nothing but slowly get better and by late summer she may be a bigger factor in these types of spots.
Society - one of the worst ‘wise guy horse’ performances of 2022 was this filly going off 9-2 in the BC Distaff and rapidly retreating after setting the early pace. Returned in the Madison at 7f and tired after setting the early fractions. I expect her to be on the lead but I also expect her to work for it which she will likely pay for in the last 100 yards.
Desert Dawn - SoCal shipper from Phil D’Amato got super wide trip in her 4yo debut. Phil is 4 for 91 at Churchill Downs which is amazingly weak record for an otherwise excellent conditioner. She needs a new lifetime top to be competitive and it’s hard to see that coming
Pauline’s Pearl - defends her title here after taking down Shedaresthedevil last year in this event. This year it appears to be a saltier bunch and she is gonna have to produce a lifetime top effort like she did last year. I’m guessing that she won’t
A Mo Reay - she is 3 for 3 since the trainer change to Cox but with an outside post, a wide journey and the tougher competition, we will look to beat her.

Edgewood (Gr II) $500,000 3yo fillies 8.5 furlongs turf

Due to space constraints we are offering a brief preview of this annual Oaks day 3 yo filly grass clash. Papilio (Ire) will get a lot of the attention here after her furious rally to take down the Appalachian (Gr II) at Keeneland but with her quirky nature and a huge crowd with many distractions, we will try to beat her. Cairo Consort, who produced a similar buzz with her own circle the field type move in the Sweetest Chant (Gr III) back in February, managed to lose her next two with that same style. Liguria got a very good TG fig (9) for winning the Jimmy Durante (Gr III) at Del Mar and makes her season debut at a decent price. Preliminary, Mission of Joy, Comanche Country (Ire) and Heavenly Sunday also all rate an upset chance in an insanely wide open race.

🌸 Kentucky Oaks (Gr I) $1,250,000 3yo fillies 9 furlongs

Mimi Kakushi - UAE Oaks (Gr III) winner comes into this with little fanfare and I suppose it’s a positive sign that jockey Barzalona sees fit to travel all the way to Louisville to ride the 20-1 morning line sleeper.
The Alys Look - I don’t know who Aly is but I do sorta like the looks of this Connect filly. She has run competitive TG figs, seems like she has some versatility in regards to her running style and looks like a solid play at the 15-1 morning line.
Gambling Girl - no real excuse last time when second in the Gazelle (Gr III) and before that when 4th behind big favorite Wet Paint in the Honeybee (Gr II). You get Pletcher and Irad at 15-1 but she feels like a filly that is a step behind the best here
Southlawn - of the Casse father/son duo, we greatly prefer this improving Pioneer of the Nile filly for Norm. Crushed the competition in the FG Oaks, she has done nothing but improve her two 2023 starts. A contrarian viewpoint would wonder if she bounces off that big move up off which came on the heels of a prior big move up? She didn’t do any running in her 2022 starts over this surface and while realizing that a repeat of her last likely gets her real close to the winners circle, we may reserve for minor awards.
Wonder Wheel - Thus far in her sophomore season, last years 2yo champ has not developed at all and needed a lucky break with a late defection to even reach the starting gate for the Oaks. Joel Rosario lands the mount with Tyler Gafflione committed to riding Pretty Mischievous but it’s questionable if he can revive the Into Mischief filly’s stalled career.
Botanical - The guessing game commences with this Cox trained filly that has an excellent record and improving fig game but has yet to race on the dirt in 6 lifetime appearances. Her 4-1 morning line seems like a terrible price to speculate if she can indeed handle the Churchill surface and resulting kickback
Wet Paint - this is the type of filly that you are almost required to bet against in a spot like this. She clearly handles a wet track which is an unlikely scenario, but she has no early foot and is a dead one run closer in a bulky field that isn’t exactly overflowing with speed. She managed to defeat Taxed twice during her Oaklawn reign of stretch-running terror but is Taxed really any good? Her late running prowess can get her on the board but we are certainly not using her on top.
Promiseher America - snapped trainer Handel’s lifetime losing streak in graded events last time with a narrow win in a soft-paced Gazelle (Gr III) at Aqueduct. I’d like to believe that this filly is improving to the point where she might take another step forward and be a big player but I’m more inclined to think that the Gazelle was her peak and we are heading to the land of Regression here.
And Tellme Nolies - she couldn’t warm up Faiza (perhaps the best 3yo filly in America) out in SoCal and got slapped around pretty good in her last foray east when 8th in the BC Juvy fillies. Her main newsworthy event from this trip seems destined to be the video of her getting loose on the track Thursday am and running back to the barn.
Flying Connection - may be the pacesetter in this race, the Nyquist filly has shown good speed in capturing a couple of stakes at Sunland this season. The biggest question marks for her is can she get the 9 furlongs, can she take pace pressure and still finish up strong, and frankly is she good enough? We are guessing that she can’t and isn’t.
Defining Purpose - we had tabbed her to be a potential upsetter in the Ashland (Gr I) and then didn’t follow through and wager on her. A repeat of that effort puts her directly in the mix here though she was unable to handle Wet Paint twice at OP. Has a “missed the wedding, don’t show up for the divorce” vibe.
Dorth Vader - it’s hard to know Bo Yates and root against him as he is just an excellent guy and a really good trainer who wins an awful lot of stakes races with relatively obscure bred horses. The issue with this filly is that she might be better around one turn and her ability to handle the 9 furlongs is murky. Getting Luis Saez helps the cause.
Affirmative Lady - she has simply been too slow to beat these so far though you could make a case that she may be ready to fire her best race. The issue is trip as from post 13 can Johnny V figure out a path that doesn’t include excessive wideness?
Pretty Mischievous - unfortunately for her, she is moored out in post 14 which puts Tyler Gafflione under a lot of pressure to try to workout a semi-decent trip from there. Adds blinkers which I thought was an unusual maneuver as I think her late race fade in the FG Oaks was more about losing ground on the turns and tiring than anything else. If she had drawn a decent post we’d probably jump on the bandwagon with such dignitaries like Steve Byk who has sung her praises for awhile now. 10-1 is an awfully tempting price though I am of the mindset that she will actually be about half of that at 5-1 or so.

Going In Circles Digest

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