The Bourbonic Plague, The Champ and a Wise Guy horse cap an unsettling day of American Racing

Real Writing on Racing 💯

What the hell happened at Aqueduct?

Often one can rewind a completed race with a surprising result, take another look at the past performances and try to see what we missed the first time around. Perhaps the favorites were more vulnerable than we originally thought? Maybe the track bias was simply playing into the hands of the eventual upsetter? Could we have over or under estimated the pace scenario? There is a reason that they actually run the races and don’t just give trophies to who “should” win. That lesson was hammered home in Saturday’s Wood Memorial, won by a closing from the clouds and fairly indecipherable Bourbonic at the huge price of 72-1.

The fact that of one of America’s biggest trainers ran two long shots in the Wood wasn’t a huge surprise; these are lucrative purses, the headliners seem to be more and more unproven as the years go by and finding allowance races for 3 year olds going long on the dirt is a tall task in itself. The fact that Todd Pletcher ran first and second though, with these two individuals, was likely a surprise to him like it was to the rest of us. It’s not that Bourbonic or Dynamic One are bad horses, they have flashed some talent and the latter was entering the race off getting a 5 Thoroughgraph figure when earning his diploma at the Wood distance of 1 1/8 over the same Aqueduct course. To put that into perspective hotshot Prevalence had earned a 5.5 winning an allowance in his last start and Candy Man Rocket had run a 7 when winning the Sam Davis Stakes. Bourbonic while admittedly much slower prior to this win (top number was a 10.5) did have two wins albeit over soft company in a maiden 50000 and starter allowance races. He was coming off of a distant second at Parx to the pacesetter and eventual 8th place finisher, Market Maven. Honestly Bourbonic seemed to be in the race at the insistence of owner Calumet Farm who has shown a willingness to run huge outsiders in top races regardless of the odds, rather than some clever plan by the seven time Eclipse award winning trainer who has now won the Wood six times.

It would probably be a bigger upset than the Wood if Calumet didn’t decide to race him back in the biggest race of them all, so he will almost assuredly go from Parx disappointment to Kentucky Derby starting gate. We would hope that Kendrick Carmouche who helped engineer the upset retains the mount to get his first shot at the Derby. No doubt that the tough beat that Dynamic One suffered won’t deter his connections from throwing their hat in the Derby ring either, this is shaping up to be a not so scary group of three year olds.

As for the rest of them, Crowded Trade again broke a touch slow and ran well though seemed to hang late and his trainer has hinted that he doesn’t believe that more distance is going to work for him so he remains iffy despite having 40 points. His stablemate Risk Taking ran a dull race, never making any moves. Weyburn who contested the pace, which was probably not as slow as it seemed from raw times as the track surface was ludicrously slow once again, weakened in the late stretch and is going to be pointed to the Peter Pan/Belmont route before looking at the Queens Plate this summer. Brooklyn Strong got the expected rail trip, may have gotten squeezed a touch mid-stretch but didn’t seem to be making a serious run anyway. Prevalence is example number 783 why impressive but inexperienced horses going one turn are generally huge underlays in these longer, two turn races with completely different dynamics unless they are trained by Baffert to whom normal laws of nature seemingly don’t apply.

This edition of the Wood was the slowest since 1952 and while it probably isn’t the best field ever assembled for the event, the track at Aqueduct has just gotten to be so slow that it’s hard to gauge the results. Bourbonic earned an 89 Beyer for the race which is also not great but represents a new lifetime top for him (previous high 76). To put it in comparison to the other two preps, Essential Quality earned a 97 in the Bluegrass and Rock Your World a 100 in the Santa Anita Derby. TimeformUS rated the Wood winner a 104 on their scale which gave Essential Quality a 118 and Rock Your World a tentative 120.

Still undefeated but…

So there are two entirely different ways to look at the Bluegrass Stakes run yesterday at Keeneland. The prevailing view is that last years undefeated two year old champion willed his way to the winners circle once again, proving his superiority over this rapidly deflating three year old crop. People with those colored glasses will see him using his versatility and tactical speed to stalk and eventually wear down talented pacesetter and Keeneland track record holder Highly Motivated nearing the wire. It’s a logical and practical way of viewing the Bluegrass and the consensus would generally agree with it.

The opposing way of looking at the race and Essential Quality in general is with some skepticism in that he has lived a charmed life in his short career with everything always seeming to break his way. His Breeders Cup win was aided by a insane early speed duel designed to take out then division leader Jackie’s Warrior which jockey Luis Saez took advantage of, rallying outside in the stretch to nail Hot Rod Charlie at the wire. His comeback race was in the Southwest where he took advantage of Jackie’s Warrior regressing badly to beat a subpar group including runner up Spielberg, who was thoroughly trounced in other Derby preps in Southern California and Florida in 2021. When the Bluegrass was drawn, the glaring lack of early speed was evident right away. There were literally no horses that had ever led at the 1st call of any race which is unusual for a 9 horse field in a race like the Bluegrass. What Essential Quality does have is versatility, he has enough tactical speed to adapt to different scenarios and with the only potential pace horse drawn inside of him, the race seemed likely to set up well for him. He tracked that horse, Highly Motivated, from the onset with those two drawing away from the field going past the 3/8th pole, leaving Rombauer and the rest of the field behind. Highly Motivated under Javier Castellano looked like he was up to the challenge and seemed to be holding Essential Quality off. However about 40 yards from the wire, he swapped back to his left lead, lost a bit of momentum and Saez capitalized on it, pushing Essential Quality past to hit the wire a neck in front. Did that lead change cost Highly Motivated the win? Usually when a horse changes leads late it’s because of an underlying physical issue or a sign that they are fatigued. Perhaps Highly Motivated who is arguably bred to be better at a mile than further was simply at the edge of his distance limitations? His dam, Strong Incentive won a single stakes, the Jammed Lovely for Ontario breds at Woodbine going 7 furlongs and while Into Mischief has had some success recently at longer distances (hello Authentic) but most of his best horses are middle distance runners.

What does this all mean for Essential Quality? The Kentucky Derby is a difficult race with a huge field, with jockeys who are less experienced than ever in dealing with large fields, riding horses that are mostly lacking in seasoning. Saez is clearly one of the best and he and Joel Rosario ran a riding clinic at Keeneland this weekend, so from that standpoint he is fine. The problem is depending on where he draws and how the race sets up, he is likely going to have far more impediments than he has had in his recent races. Perhaps he is good enough to overcome whatever gets thrown in his path, he is a good horse that has yet to taste defeat after all, but I’m skeptical that he didn’t actually win the Bluegrass as much as Highly Motivated lost it.

So a grass horse shows up to a dirt race…

At some point in racing history, long before I was alive, the term “wise guys” was used to describe insiders at the track that seemingly had information on horses and races that the general public didn’t. Also occasionally called “sharps”, it was a term of endearment more than a sneer of insult. Wise guys knew what unraced maidens were working lights out without making the official clockers tab, what horse was nursing a sore hoof, what trainer was setting one up to cash a bet. Often a horse that is taking more money on the tote board than it should be taking is called a wise guy horse. Whispers about a first time starter with mediocre workouts gets bet hard are wise guy horses. A wise guy horse just won the Santa Anita Derby.

John Sadler had been coy about Rock Your World. Privately there was a lot of buzz that he was an ultra talented Candy Ride colt but Sadler choose to debut him on the grass and after a nice maiden score getting a decent enough speed figure, he ran him back in the Pasadena, a minor turf stakes with a short field of five, as opposed to throwing him into the fire to face the big bad wolf, Life is Good in the San Felipe. I admit I was very skeptical when I saw him listed in last weekends Kentucky Derby Futures pool, as he had no points and hadn’t even run on the dirt. That he was bet down to 30-1 when he seemed to be 50-1 to even make the race let alone win it made it even more puzzling.

Well as they headed down the backside of the main track at Santa Anita Saturday afternoon and Rock Your World was in full command, I realized the wise guys were right and Medina Spirit and the others in the Derby were chasing futility. Umberto Rispoli took a peak back while using up one of his six strikes about 3/16th of a mile from the wire. Rock Your World responded by changing leads and scooting away from Medina Spirt and Dream Shake with a jubilant Rispoli pumping his fist as he crossed the wire, not having had to use the last three strikes granted to him. He galloped out as strong as he finished up and suddenly looks to be a player in next months slightly more important Derby at Churchill Downs. Medina Spirit broke very alertly but was taken back by Johnny V and sat a three wide stalking trip off of the pace, but was simply outrun by the winner while clearly second best over Dream Shake who sat inside and just wasn’t good enough. Defunded didn’t run bad, rallying for 4th in his two turn and stakes debut, forget the rest.

Big day, small fields and trouble ahead

The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass, Santa Anita Derby cards help make up one of our biggest days of racing in the early part of Spring. The Aqueduct card kicked off with three 6 horse fields in overnight races, two claiming races and a NY bred maiden special with a 70k purse. Then we had the Bayshore which is a grade 3, 200k race that drew a 5 horse field. Then a 7 horse NY bred allowance followed by one of the weakest editions of the Grade 1 (😒) Carter which also had 5 horses shooting for a 300k purse. Thankfully grass racing is back up north as the next race was a field of 8 though the wagering enthusiasm is tempered by the presence of a 3/5 shot who won triggering a $3.65 double and $4.40 exacta. The Grade 3 (😒) Excelsior was carded with 7 but ran with 6 after the unfortunate scratch of favored Mr Buff because of a bout with colic. The Gazelle which is a Grade 3 drew a representative field of 8 and the Wood Memorial a Grade 2, 100 point Derby prep had 9. The eleventh and final race was another grass race, this one NY bred maidens with 12. Handle was 14.4 million on the 11 race card with 72 betting interests versus 14.8 million on the same 11 races with 83 betting interest in 2019 as the Wood card wasn’t contested last year. (handle figures courtesy of @o_crunk)

The Bluegrass card kicked off with a 5 horse maiden special weight at the distance of 1 1/8 for a 79k purse. The second was a 7 horse starter allowance race, the third a 9 horse maiden special sprint, the fourth a 12 horse allowance on the grass. The fifth was an 11 horse maiden with an uncoupled entry running 1-2. The Appalachian a grade 2, 200k race for 3 year old fillies went with only 6, the 7th was the Commonwealth which is a grade 3, 300k race had seven including Hidden Scroll who was listed as having bled after getting beat 28 lengths at 2/1. The 8th was 12 runners in the Grade 2 Shakertown in which the runner up, Imprimis the 5/2 second choice, broke through the gate prior to the start and was reported to have bled after the race by his trainer back at the barn. More on the two bleeding incidents later. The Ashland which is a grade 1 race for fillies and major Kentucky Oaks prep wound up with a 6 horse field and the 3/2 favorite Simply Ravishing backed up through the field, finishing 19 behind the winner, appearing like a horse that may have bled though that is purely speculation. The Madison which is also a Grade 1 going 7 furlongs for older fillies drew a 7 horse field. The Bluegrass capped off the day with a 9 horse field. Handle was down compared to both 2019 and last years July Bluegrass card. The 2021 numbers were 22.7 million on 11 races and 90 betting interests versus 23.8 million on 10 races and 94 interests in 2020 (July) and 26 million on 11 races and 114 betting interests in 2019. Jockeys Joel Rosario and Luis Saez won every one of the 9 stakes races at Keeneland opening weekend, Rosario with 6 and Saez with 3. The rich get richer…

Santa Anita is a place where for the most part we have been accustomed to small fields and this week while pretty normal, had a couple of 4 horse stakes, the Santa Anita Oaks and Sunday’s Las Flores which featured the return of Gamine. Handle was solid, 22.7 million on 12 races and 93 betting interests versus last years (June) 14.3 million on 11 races and 69 interests. In 2019 they did 20.3 million on 11 races and 92 interests.

Overall handle for Saturday nationally was 90.6 million on 115 races (avg field size 7.63), COVID effected 2020 same day handle was 35.5 million on 33 races (9.21) while the 2019 same day comparison was 90.3 million on 154 races (7.88). *(figures courtesy of @o_crunk) It’s clear from the data that there is a pretty strong total handle ceiling that racing doesn’t seem to be able to break through despite the rhetoric to the contrary. Often we are served up handle numbers that are track or circuit specific and the lack of independent media seems to have caused very little focus on the numbers as a whole across the board in all of racing.

One issue that is plain as day when you take a look at the numbers and field size, there are entirely too many stakes races and many are graded far higher than they deserve to be. At this stage of racings existence we simply have too many options for a diminished pool of horses, the foal crop sitting under 20000 per year yet we have roughly the same number of graded stakes as when there was double the amount of foals born per year. When you add the supertrainers and mega-barn’s into the equation, the problem is simply exacerbated as they maneuver the chess pieces around the stakes board, looking for the path of least resistance, building facile yet lucrative resumes for their future bloodstock. Tracks use the stakes and their grades as a marketing tool yet history has shown us that a four horse stakes race is never going to generate the same revenue as a eight horse bottom level claiming race. While the amount of residual attention promoting the “stars” of racing carries some weight, you can only run so many layup drill type of races before even the most fawning of fans loses interest. Even the Harlem Globetrotters needed the Washington Generals to make the show go on.

Keeneland, like many other of the A level tracks, is running their stakes schedule with Lasix-free rules which became a point of contention this weekend when a couple of the favorites in two separate, graded stakes bled badly during the running of their races. Hidden Scroll, who has been a mercurial name in racing since his spectacular unveiling on the Pegasus day undercard several years ago and his subsequent erratic racing career, was sold at the 2020 Keeneland November sale as part of the yearly Juddemonte Farm reduction for $525k and turned over to last years Eclipse award winning trainer Brad Cox. His first race for the new connections at Oaklawn in January was a successful one as he didn’t show any of his previous antics and rallied from off the pace to score an easy victory over allowance company. Sent off as the close second choice at 2/1, he didn’t have the same late kick and clearly was not right as jockey Florent Geroux didn’t persevere with him as he crossed the wire 28 lengths behind the winner. He was reported to have bled badly out of his nostrils before he had even exited the track after being unsaddled. One race later in the Shakertown, Imprimis, a seven year old gelded, multiple graded stakes winner of over $800000k that has successfully raced without Lasix in prior starts was reported to have bled badly in the post race test barn after getting caught at the wire when finishing second. While it’s not known publicly if she bled but the 3/2 favorite in the Ashland Simply Ravishing was beaten 18 lengths in an uncharacteristic dull performance which of course leads to speculation. The Santa Anita Derby had horses beaten 18, 19, 20 1/2, 35 1/4 and 64 1/2 lengths and it’s not a long leap of faith to believe that some if not all of those runners may have bled to some degree in the Lasix-less Derby prep. HISA has passed and one of the only certainties about that still mostly nebulous law is that lasix won’t be allowed on race day anywhere at some point. We as an industry have to figure out a path to get the fervent anti-lasix people to cease with rhetoric and work to try to find better answers before more of these bleeding incidents or perceived bleeding incidents further chip away at the wagering public’s confidence. Perception is reality and it works both ways.