The 14 Days of Derby Talk

Real Writing on Racing 💯

We have two weeks till the big day (Oaks day IS pretty darn good though) and I admit that I haven’t spent a whole lot of time and energy handicapping a race that we don’t have the post positions for, let alone know exactly who is even gonna run. We could preview the pretty ordinary editions of the Ben Ali (Gr III) or the Turf marathon that is the Sycamore (Gr II) (yes in America 12 furlongs is considered a long race…and yes Chuck Appleby will likely win). Oaklawn has a pretty decent group of stakes today (yes Oaklawn is still open). Or we could do something Derby related but aren’t we going to be bombarded with content about that for the next two weeks?

I think that we will do a quick quips column today, just darting around the racing landscape and asking questions that may or may not have easily found answers.

💸 Steve Byk came up with an idea about Derby prop bets. His first idea? A prop bet pitting the “other” horses from the Brad Cox, Danny Gargan and Chad Brown barns versus their Derby headliners. What might a fair price be? Let me hear what you guys think might be an interesting prop bet that is tied into the Kentucky Derby in the comment section!

🗓️ When I speak of stakes scheduling dysfunction consider this series of events during an era when running back even in a month isn’t a given:

3/23 - New Orleans Classic (Gr 2) at FG - Essex (Gr 3) at OP - KY Cup Classic (Gr 3) at TP

3/30 - Dubai World Cup (Gr 1) - Ghostzapper (Gr 3) at GP - Excelsior (L) at Aqu - Oaklawn Mile (Gr 3) at OP

4/20 - Ben Ali (Gr 3) at Kee - Californian (Gr 3) at SA - Oaklawn Handicap (Gr 2) at OP

5/3-4-5 - Westchester (Gr 3) at Aqu - Alysheba (Gr 2) at CD - Knicks Go (L) at CD - Lake Ouachita (L) at OP

That’s 13 races for the same division (older dirt horses 8-9F) over a six week period. A Grade 1, three grade 2’s, 6 grade 3’s and 3 ungraded stakes from March 23 to May 5. I’m not offering up a condemnation of the situation, just putting it down on (what passes for) paper, so that everyone can understand why many of these races wind up being less than stellar events. Back when wheeling a horse back in two or three weeks was no big deal, this schedule made a lot more sense than it does now. We can do better but the graded stakes committee, the big tracks and the Breeders Cup have to actually try rather than the typical Laissez-faire approach. Jay Hovdey speaks on this issue in today’s Bloodhorse.

⏱️ I know that many love to watch the Kentucky Derby workouts and use those impressions to form opinions but I’m here to remind you that the only works that matter at this point are the bad ones. If a horse doesn’t work up to par, do not listen to any excuses given, toss them. Now these days, contenders are far more likely to be scratched than in the past but still remember that trainers consider it their job to GET TO the Kentucky Derby, not to win it. Most of the horses are in good form and are going to be matched with work partners that will flatter them so the glowing post-work reports should be taken with a grain of salt.

🙄 For some reason a pair of notable owners are now taking to social media and bickering about nonsense and it’s gotten to be pernicious. We get it, the Commish hates the Jockey Club (not an unreasonable stance) and wants to be some sort of populist figure. The other guy has been involved in the game for about 15 minutes yet often posts in a preachy manner and pokes at the Commish in a passive aggressive fashion, which leads to more timeline pollution. Let’s be clear, it’s great that both guys are investing many of their plentiful dollars into the industry but neither has a clue how to “fix it” anymore than other industry figures, who all seem to miss the basics. The racing product that we offer is rarely compelling and it’s vastly overpriced. Everything else is ancillary or just details. Fix or even mitigate the fundamental problems and I will personally nominate you for a Nobel prize 🏆.

📉 In 2019-20 the Gulfstream Championship meet handled $976,644,478 on 907 races. Purses for that meet totaled $43,858,500 and avg field was 8.33 horses. The 2023-24 Gulfstream Championship meet handled $785,109,262 on 834 races. Purses for the recently concluded meet were $51,797,000 and avg field was 7.78 horses. So fewer races with smaller fields despite 18% higher purses with handle cratering by 13% (per race was $1,076,786 in 2019-20 vs $941,378 in 2023-24) What is the biggest change in 5 years in South Florida? Tapeta. Draw your own conclusions… (figures c/o O-Crunk)

🐇 It continues to baffle me that despite almost weekly episodes where a nice stakes horse, owned by a big owner, is compromised because of a lack of early pace, hardly anyone employs rabbits these days. It’s a perfectly legal and ethical tactic and if the great European champion Frankel was able to be assisted by the aid of a pacemaker, you shouldn’t be too proud to use one either.

📈 Keeneland Daily Double play is reportedly up by a relatively significant % according to the tracks director of wagering development, Jim Goodman’s tweets. The takeout on the wager was lowered to 15% for the Spring meet, at the very least, a nice gesture for horseplayers. Cutting CAW play off from the win pool at 2 minutes to post like NYRA does, would be another big step in the right direction for a track that not only sells a billion or so dollars of horseflesh a year at its massive sales, but is benefitting from the HHR (slots) legislation too. The late odds changes playing out on the television screen as the race is running (regardless of the semantics) is just a tough look always, but even worse for our higher profile meets. I say this even as I did benefit from the reverse occurring for the winner of the 8th on Friday (🚨red board alert!)

🏇🏻 The winner of that 8th at Keeneland on Friday was Cagliostro, an Upstart colt trained by Cherie Devaux, who showed newly found early speed equipped with blinkers for his season debut. He was a fringe player in the 3yo dirt division last year and with continued improvement may carve himself out a spot among the upper tier of older horses this year.

🤔 So according to a report from TVG or whatever it’s called now, 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike ISN’T retired and may make his return this summer. I really don’t have anything to say other than….well ok.

🥀 The Derby and Oaks cards will be drawn next Saturday and the post position draw for the two big races will be done during the Churchill Opening Night card after races 3 & 4.

🐶 Mike Mutnansky takes a semi-deep dive into the Derby prep season in today’s Stackcapping post.

📻 Sid Fernando and Steve Byk had a fascinating 15 minute conversation on the evolution of the game this past Wednesday on Byk’s At the Races show on Sirius/XM radio. Click here to listen in.

💸 Santa Anita is close to debuting a new wager called the “Three by Three” and it’s a great insight as to why racing from a wagering standpoint is a mess. Consider this comment from the people introducing the new wager (credit- Byron King in the BloodHorse) : Computer-assisted wagering bettors would not be permitted to wager into the pool, Scott Daruty, president of the Monarch Content Management, told commissioners. He said officials are "not expecting it to be wildly successful, but we want to try it." Let’s just say that if THIS is the only type of innovation that racing suits can muster up…well let’s not bother saying it.