Tampa Time
Real Writing on Racing 💯
A nice card of racing is on tap at Tampa Bay Downs as the Bay Area oval hosts its signature day once again. The TB Derby itself isn’t a stellar edition and it’s unlikely to have much impact on the actual Kentucky Derby but there is a vulnerable favorite in there and the undercard is solid as usual. GP is mostly Tapeta today with only the 9th (Silks Run stakes) remaining on the turf and FG is off the grass so promising grass prospect More Than Looks will be scratched and pointed to Keeneland.
🙄 Far too often it seems like racing just isn’t a serious business. I don't really have to list all the foolishness that occurs on a daily basis, if you don’t know what I’m speaking of, I suggest the archives here at the Going in Circles Digest to get you started. Idiocy like “outing” a racing social media figure whose own inane behavior included using voice changing apps to shroud his identity so that he could do podcasts anonymously. It was like he was some bag man from the Mexican cartels who snitched out El Chapo to the Feds and was worried that he might get a late night visit from the Salamanca Brothers. The Commish himself declared that he will solve the “aftercare problem” in six months which is a sign that he has little real understanding of the situation. HISA continues to baffle by spending far too much time and resources focused on Donald Buckner’s, an 80 year old trainer who made 15 starts the last 26 months with a record of 15-0-0-2 which good for $8536 in earnings, rather than actual problems. We could list more too but you get the gist of it.
🎰 Yet another scary proposition is starting to spread through perpetually revenue-starved state legislatures, that I’d bet 99% of those reading these words have not even considered. It’s called igaming, it’s coming (7 states have already approved it) and the potential for damage to racing interests is high. Essentially it’s betting on casino games including slot machines on your cell phone. The potential for a dilution of revenues from traditional racino ‘brick and mortars’ operations is a matter of when, rather than if.
The ability to bypass the physical locations where slot money is generated for purses in places like Pennsylvania or New York or Maryland or Ohio or any of the other states where racing depends on it, will perhaps mean an interruption to that cash flow. In other words, unless a specific designation is created earmarking a percentage of money wagered on people’s phones to racing, we are in grave danger of that revenue bypassing the industry completely. The racing industry in Pennsylvania has seen its revenues derived from slot machine legislation reduced due to additional casino locations being added, ones that are exempt from the ‘racing tax’ and yet they also have added igaming as well. In states with a mature gambling industry, the saturation level from more and more casinos being added has slowed growth as there are far fewer dollars left to be mined. For instance in a state where 8 casinos that produced $ for racing existed, if the politicians added 6 more that didn’t, the gross pool of slot machine handle is assuredly going to result in more money shifting away from the existing 8 than new money being found. If you add igaming to the mix, essentially making every single phone or internet capable device into a mini-casino, that impact on revenue flowing to racing from the existing locations will be even more dramatic. If racing interests aren’t actively engaged in protecting its turf (considered subsidies by the political class but turf nonetheless) the likelihood that they will get left behind is high and the negative impact will be strong.
Think this isn’t on the horizon? Check out this recent article where prominent NY legislator Robert Addabbo, Jr stumps for igaming with the dubious suggestion that the income that the state receives from it will be “new income” which is undoubtedly not the case, but it sounds appealing. The truth is that most states aren’t going to quench their never ending thirst for more revenues and with igaming representing a final frontier to the expansion of gambling (what more can they do?) the next step is to redirect what entities receive a portion and who is confident that racing will make the cut?
🦀 Frank Vespe of the Racing Biz asks where is the transparency from the Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority concerning the development of Pimlico and the revamping of the states racing industry? Check it out here.
🐎 Fasig Tipton’s March Digital Sale is going on now, Click here to check it out.
☀️ The Florida racing industry continues to get support from its lawmakers with the news of an extension to the tax package recently passed which has added to purses and breeders awards in the Sunshine State. Check out the details here.
⚖️ Respected trainer Rusty Arnold recently spoke out about a positive test a runner of his received and his distaste for the current process under the HISA guidelines. You can see what he said here, and we will add a major issue with the HISA testing is that they have lowered thresholds for contamination likely drugs to unreasonably low levels which is not doing anyone, including HISA itself, any good.
🆓 Click here for access to free PP’s for the DRF race of the day, the Tampa Bay Derby
🏇🏻 Game of Silks begins its 2nd season today and you will be seeing more about the new features on Fox Sports America’s Day at the Races soon. Learn more here.
Challenger (Gr III) $100,000 4&up 1 1/16 dirt
Mbagnick (Chi) - Chilean import found Del Mar too rough, made the rarely seen San Diego to Vinton, Louisana trip where he went 2 for 2 with a couple of hard fought allowance wins on the Delta bullring. The 5 yo son of Practical Joke tried stakes horses at the FG in the Tenacious Stakes in late December to no avail and seems like a dubious proposition here, even in this relatively mediocre group.
Dynamic One - In 2022 he used this very race to springboard to a relatively successful summer campaign as a 4yo after an up and down three year old season. Easy to forget that he finished right behind last years Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish in that edition of the Challenger. After missing most of 2023, his two comeback races in a GP allowance and the Pegasus were both dull efforts and Pletcher takes the blinkers off in what feels like a ‘need to try something’ move.
Skippylongstocking - The Skipster’s radiator overheated in the Pegasus where Gafflione felt compelled to pull the son of Exaggerator up as the field proceeded down the backside. His prior form and possession of enough early speed to be tactical placed would make him a strong favorite against this bunch. Won this race last season after a clunker in the Pegasus and that scenario seems likely to repeat itself here.
Sherlock’s Jewel - Shug switched him to the Tampa dirt this winter after an extended run of mediocrity on the weeds and the gelding by Lea responded with two solid allowance wins. This isn’t exactly a deep group and it’s not a reach that continued improvement makes him an on the board contender but most likely at underlaid odds.
Dash Attack - We have spoken in the past about the often erratic form displayed by McPeek runners and this Munnings gelding could be the poster child for that phenomenon. He ran 10 times last year at 6 different tracks at 5 different distances over surfaces ranging from fast to firm to good to wet-fast. He managed 2 wins, zero seconds, 3 thirds and 4 clunkers, Beyer figs ranging from 57 to 101. None of this is a criticism, Kenny likes to run and it’s unfortunate that more don’t share that sentiment, especially with geldings like this. However it does make it challenging to figure out which Dash Attack is likely to show up on any particularly day, including this Saturday.
Impacto - Florida bred gelding has spanned the continent, getting claimed out of a winning debut last April in Oldsmar before shipping to western Canada to compete at Century Downs. Returned this winter and was claimed once again last out, this time by perennial top local trainer Bennett who jumps the son of First Dude into stakes company. He did look good winning that optional $32000 claimer on the lead, which you’d think would be the plan in this short field that lacks early pace.
Florida Oaks (Gr III) $200,000 3yo fillies 1 1/16 grass
Poolside with Slim (Ire) - Filly by solid Irish sire Churchill, has run well in both career starts, breaking her maiden in emphatic style last out over the Gulfstream synthetic after exiting a key race when second in her debut on Jan 3. That race at Turfway yielded 4 next out winners including subsequent stakes winner Nice as Pie. Paired 10.75 TG and while synthetic to turf figs aren’t apples to apples, it makes this Rusty Arnold trained filly a very appealing option in here at anything remotely close to the morning line price.
A Primera Vista - Competitive Edge filly is clearly better on the grass but seems like a cut below the best in here. Speed is often dangerous on the Tampa lawn but with as much rain as they have gotten this week, the course will likely not be super firm and usually plays fair like that.
Pharoah’s Wine - SCRATCHED - had some trouble at the gate last out which put her in a tough spot trailing the field in the Sweetest Chant (Gr III). That said the American Pharoah filly really didn’t put in much of a closing kick and hasn’t developed much since October and it’s not that she couldn’t jump right into the mix here with improvement, I’m just not confident that she will.
Crevalle d’Oro - Constitution filly hasn’t developed much, just left the maiden ranks and while she isn’t completely impossible, she is just not very likely either.
Waskesiu - Dusted pretty solid MSW group at Big A in November before tough trip in the Ginger Brew where she encountered some jostling after the start that left her with a wide journey thereafter. Hung in there pretty good to be third behind Ozara (Ire) and Life’s an Audible, both of who maintained the good form of that race when running 3rd and 2nd in the Herecomesthebride (Gr III). With natural progression and a better trip she figures to be a big player in here and might be a square price.
Austere - makes three year old debut here after an even 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile fillies turf, saving ground to no avail. Her win in the lucrative Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs isn’t looking as solid as it once did as the runners up haven’t fared well. An obvious contender but we will lean elsewhere.
Style Points - showed improvement last two including leading between calls in the stretch of the Herecomesthebride (Gr III). Continued advancement makes her a player though she has gotten ideal trips and set ups in two consecutive races which is questionable to happen again.
Destiny Star - flashed good early speed when stretching out from turf sprints to take down an allowance in wire to wire fashion last month over this course. Seems like there might be more early pressure to be applied here and that added to the jump in class and potential dogleg issue makes her a shaky proposition
Dancing in Dixie - has a bit of trouble noted in her running line from the last race but there really wasn’t much there and she wasn’t gaining at the end.
Weigh the Risks - off since the Spa, she ran well in two MSW’s with the winner of her debut, Ozara (Ire) being a multiple stakes winner since. TG figs a little slow but they were earned 188+ days ago so you’d assume that she is faster now. Irad sticks with her for Brown, logical contender especially if the race remains intact and the early pace gets a little crispy.
Dynamic Pricing - Mr Brown didn’t get much help at the draw as both his fillies got stuck outside. This Irish bred has two races, both were good and if Jose can workout a decent trip, she will be a major contender. With a large field (if no scratches) the price should be a little more palatable than usual but she still needs some good fortune in trips and pace scenario to get the job done.
Witwatersrand - Connect filly tries the grass but she is moored wide by the post draw and in danger of getting a wide trip.
Tampa Bay Derby (Gr III) $400,000 3yo 1 1/16 (50 KYD points)
Heartened - Street Boss colt beat very weak MSW group over this surface when transfered back after a couple decent turf tries. Hasn’t really progressed nor is he particularly fast. That he is 10-1 on the morning line for a March Derby preps is a blinking neon sign that this version of the Tampa Bay Derby isn’t going to make anyone forget Cefis.
Everdoit - The gelded son of Gary D hasn’t run fast in the four times that his jockey stayed on and there isn’t much reason to believe that he will here.
Give Me Liberty - This feels a lot more like the New York Liberty of the WNBA than it does the famous words of Revolutionary War hero Patrick Henry (no relation to John). This maiden son of Constitution whom Mr Ramsey claimed first time out for $100k at Churchill last fall, has caught a couple pretty good horses in his last two runner up finishes at OP but he wasn’t all that close to beating them. His trainer wins a lot of races but very few are graded stakes and while it’s probably worth a shot as you won’t find many softer $400k races than this, I’m skeptical that he is good enough.
Good Money - won a suspect MSW at Tampa in late January in a raw time that looks good but was actually slower than cheap conditioned claimers went earlier in the day. Got a 12.5 TG which probably appears a bit quicker than the 63 Beyer but either way, much improvement is required. For Irad fans.
Domestic Product - it’s entirely possible that this son of Practical Joke wins this race but it will be without my wagering support. I just don’t think his Holy Bull (Gr III) was all that good and even his maiden win came at the expense of what’s looks like a field of mostly also rans. Looking back at his last, he had a good trip saving ground on both turns, was closely tracking a slow pace for 5f before getting a little outrun going into the far turn when Fierceness turned up the pressure on early leader and eventual winner Hades. He angled outside those two dueling leaders entering the stretch but despite looming mid-stretch, he really wasn’t getting to Hades late. This is the type of horse that you should bet against with every fiber of your being at 8-5, even his trouble comments from that race ring hollow as they didn’t cost him anything IMO. Again this is not a strong field for a Kentucky Derby prep and he could win because you never know when a three year old is going to run a lot better than they had been….but you shouldn’t bet on that happening at a short price.
Catire Vizcaya - The only one of these that isn’t nominated to the Triple Crown and while this may be harsh, they should be glad they saved the $600 because nothing his form indicates that any of those races are in his future.
No More Time - The Sam Davis winner catches a break here as this bunch looks even less imposing than the modest group of 3yo’s that he dominated four weeks ago. Has tactical ability with good early foot though he doesn’t need to be on the lead and new jockey Castellano should be able to find comfortable forward positioning early in the race. His TG pattern is solid, the 6.75 he was assigned last out could easily be a launch point for a move forward which would likely be more than enough to handle these. Is he a real Kentucky Derby contender? I doubt it as he isn’t all that fast in the grand scheme and his dam’s side of the pedigree page doesn’t scream stamina but he won’t have to be at the head of the class here. The price won’t be appealing but IMO he is by far the most likely winner.
Crazy Mason - encountered trouble at two different points in the Sam Davis (Gr III). Going into the first turn he got roughed up between horses which left him at the back of the pack and then again going past the 3 furlong pole when a horse seemed to duck in on him which caused Sanchez to steady once again. Granted he didn’t have a Turkoman-like late closing kick but he did make up some ground nonetheless. Sacco adds blinkers and look for Sanchez to be aggressive going into the first turn to try to get some decent positioning down the backside. His TG figs are light but join the club here and IMO his last was a little better than it looked, if he can break through that TG 9.75 he can make some noise here at a long price.
Grand Mo the First - His Swale was fine but he had a good trip and the
trouble that he did encounter was minor at best. Not sure what sort of plan Camacho will have with the Uncle Mo colt stretching out to two turns for the first time while breaking from an outside position. You could make a case that he should appreciate more ground but guessing that he is looking at a less than ideal trip here.
Sturdy - He will need to be, wheeling back in two weeks off of the 4 month layoff and breaking from the 10 post for the Commish and George Weaver. While admittedly it’s still very early in his career as a stallion, there hasn’t been much evidence that the progeny of Mitole are going to thrive at route distances. This guy is still a maiden, doesn’t have much early speed and with the draw might be laying 10th as they turn to go down the backstretch. It’s not too big of a stretch to think he could pick up some pieces late and contend for minor awards though.