Tampa Time
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🏴☠️ Before we get to this weeks stakes preview I want to comment on the Paco situation at Gulfstream stemming from last weekend’s Fountain of Youth (Gr. II) which was marred by a spill at the top of the stretch. The general consensus (which I agree with) is that there were several horses in tight quarters around the 1/4 pole bend into the stretch and Paco Lopez riding eventual second place finisher, In Due Time, forced his way out while looking for room which triggered a chain reaction leading to High Oak clipping heels and falling which in turn led to Galt losing his rider when he tried to leap over High Oak. Immediately after the race the stewards posted the inquiry sign as always in a race with that type of incident. However none of the numbers on the tote board ever blinked nor was a replay shown nor was the public advised who the subject of the inquiry was on beyond just the general inquiry. After a relatively brief period of time for an incident of that nature the race was declared official and no explanation was given at least as far as I am aware of. (Note-after viewing an unedited tape many times I believe a DQ was difficult because of the lack of a clear camera angle of the incident) Wednesday afternoon Gulfstream Park put out a press release stating the Stewards were suspending Paco Lopez for 14 racing days for careless riding stemming from the Fountain of Youth incident despite no disqualification of his number in the race or even any sign that he was the subject of that inquiry. They also claimed that additional cameras would be installed in the near future to provide better views though the only angle that would make sense is from above via a drone camera. Thursday Mike Welsch of the DRF tweeted that Cory Moran, Paco’s agent indicated that he would start the suspension on Sunday but would be allowed to honor his stakes calls on Florida Derby day which is April 2nd. This naturally led to derisive howls of discontent on social media about how the punishment was “a joke” and that allowing him to retain stakes mounts defeats the purpose of the idea of punishment. Those sentiments aren’t entirely wrong but it should be noted that the “designated race rule” has been in effect for years in almost all major jurisdictions and a similar situation occurred after last year’s Haskell. In that race Flavian Prat on Hot Rod Charlie cut off Midnight Bourbon (ironically ridden by Paco) in the stretch causing him to clip heels and fall. Prat and his agent negotiated with Monmouth Park Stewards to delay taking his days till the Del Mar meet was over and even then Prat was allowed to ride in six designated stakes at Kentucky Downs while he was suspended.
There are several ways that this situation might have been avoided and once it did happen, it needs to be better explained or we wind up with confusion and unfortunately as in this case, doing the right thing looks dubious not wise. At some point over the last fifteen or so years “race riding” has gone from a legitimate tactic used to legally (barely) gain a slight advantage over the competition during a close stretch battle to a common, reckless and often dangerous activity. We are seeing herding become an epidemic and it’s not just desperado jocks trying to secure a rare win, it’s our top riders who are the worst offenders at the biggest meets! Yet nationwide stewards make curiously passive decisions on a routine basis when not drawing a line in the sand on aggressive riding and rarely handing out penalties that have any sting at all. Even so the two most recent cases where prominent jockeys were given more than slaps on the wrist involved three-time eclipse award winner Irad Ortiz and serial offender Paco Lopez, a pair who famously had a post-race dustup last spring after a roughly run race at Gulfstream. Those longer suspensions which didn’t allow for designated races either don’t seem to have curbed either jockeys strong-arm tendencies as Ortiz was disqualified twice within a weeks time in mid-February (amazingly enough getting a pass from the stewards on the first transgression) and Paco Paco’d the Fountain of Youth. This doesn’t mean that I don’t believe that far harsher penalties are needed in general, if not solely for repeat offenders, because I do. However in racing we often try to band-aid problems after they have been exposed instead of getting ahead of issues with reasoned measures. On the Going in Cirles podcast the last few weeks Barry and I have spoken several times on how this should have been an issue that was covered under HISA especially if they were going to stick their toes in the water with jockey riding crop regulations. Alas HISA seems to be in deep water without a paddle as it is so that won’t be happening but that doesn’t mean that this issue should continue to be left unaddressed.
Being a jockey is a hard job. You have to be athletic, super fit, courageous, physically strong and the mental part is often underrated because outside of a handful of elite riders, you still get taken off of mounts despite doing everything perfect. The jocks at the top of the sport not only have all those traits but are talented, dedicated and hyper-competitive people that often get both unwarranted abuse or praise, sometimes for the same ride! Rules are in place for a reason though and being tougher and cracking down on the constant bumping, herding and other overly aggressive tactics may serve to someday save them from themselves.
❓❓❓As I’m writing this the word comes down that the NYRA stewards have decided to take no action against Jose Lezcano for his tepid ride in Sunday’s first race at Aqueduct though “the matter remains under ongoing review” which the stewards won’t elaborate on. Why this announcement would be made in this manner is typical and a huge part of the reason that there is so much distrust between racing officials and the wagering public. No one outside of Jose Lezcano’s immediate family and the connections that have him booked for mounts over the weekend need to know that action won’t be taken against him, ie.- he won’t be suspended, at this very minute! Transparency matters! Wait until the entire matter has been investigated to present all findings publicly! If you are going to exonerate a rider for a questionable ride then you NEED TO SAY WHY! Yes I’m sure they have a reason but I’m sure it’s not worth them and NYRA by association, looking poorly in the public view.
One last point - stewards aren’t policy makers and they are all employees of either a state racing commission or racetrack (or in NYRA’s case one works for the Jockey Club). They don’t make the rules which often handcuff them with penalties that may or may not fit the transgression committed. Rough riding is an industry-wide issue that track management and racing commissions need to address and make a priority to their stewards before we have another bad accident with all the resulting fallout that will occur, especially one that can be avoided if riders simply rode straight like they all are capable of.
Tampa Bay Derby $400000 1 1/16 Gr. II
Grantham - Declaration of War colt exits a fair try in the Withers at Aqueduct after overcoming trouble when breaking his maiden at Turfway in December. Isn’t particularly fast and has had trouble at gate in all three starts but this isn’t a particularly fast group. Might wanna look at using underneath in exotics at super long price though also monitor track to see how fair it is to closers as it drys out.
Trademark - stalked a rapid pace while wide but absolutely stopped on the turn and was beaten by 33 in the Sam Davis. One work since that race, Centeno sticks, perhaps had entrapped epiglottis which can cause horses to stop abruptly like he did. The issue is that you’d generally prefer horses prone to that issue to either be on the lead or in the clear and it’s hard to see either of those two scenarios playing out here. Trainer Oliver has zero wins in her last 56 graded stakes starts.
Happy Boy Rocket - added blinkers and lasix for his two turn maiden breaker at Gulfstream after a decent third in his slow starting debut at 7f. Was wide in both races and still didn’t break a single digit speed figure (11 TG) which means he needs a massive improvement to contend here.
Classic Causeway - more or less ran them off their feet in the Sam Davis, battling on the lead with Little Vic before shrugging him off turning for home and widening in the lane. The early pace scenario in this spot seems to really favor him as there doesn’t appear to be any other speed types to apply pressure. Lynch is excellent 2nd off the layoff (25 wins from 114 starts with a +.27 ROI). Unless there is some terrible anti-speed bias he looms as the horse to beat at a short price and hopefully (for my futures tickets) takes one more step (race!) on his way to the first Saturday in May.
Giant Game - rerouted from Fountain of Youth last week when Romans decided to scratch because of a poor post position. Does draw well here but has to rebound from subpar effort in the Holy Bull where he stopped badly with the post race excuse of an entrapped epiglottis which led to a minor surgical procedure since then. Has flashed ability but his trainers recent record in graded stakes (zero for his last 40) is not encouraging and his early season three year olds have been mostly busts including Howling Time last Saturday.
Golden Glider - gets another chance after failing to menace in the Sam Davis, passing a few tired ones late. Has a running style that isn’t conducive for a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early pace signed on. Minor awards seem to be his ceiling in here.
Strike Hard - received a curious trip last time from an outside post when Reyes got completely lost and this colt wound up last down the backside. Lost a ton of ground on both turns and if new rider Saez can workout a better trip, he is probably the main danger to Classic Causeway.
Major General - it wouldn’t be an east coast Derby prep without a Pletcher entry and the Tampa Bay Derby is no exception for its all time leading trainer (5 wins). Unseen since September (175 day layoff) when he was winning the Iroquois (Gr. III) at Churchill after a long drive, he has two wins in two starts with one being a front running score. Could he show speed off that long layoff coming from an outside post? That is what JJ Castellano and Pletcher have to try to figure out a week after his Emmanuel got hung out to dry in a similar post position scenario in the Fountain of Youth. Pletcher is a insane 82% 1st/2nd at Tampa this season (14/17) and Major General ran excellent speed figures for a late summer/early fall 2 year old (8.25 and 7.5 TG). A logical contender though not without some questions.
Shipsational - ran really well in the Sam Davis, rallying to be second for the veteran conditioner Eddie Barker who is making a rare appearance outside New York. He actually earned a slightly better TG figure than the winner (4.25 vs 5) because he carried 4 extra pounds and lost a lot of ground but that is a case of winning the battle and losing the war. The stat that jumps out at you here is Barker being 6% 2nd off of the layoff in 67 starts. He is a sentimental choice but I’m fading him here at a relatively short price.
Belgrade - broke his maiden first time out in easy fashion in a restricted MSW at FG for trainer Brenden Walsh. Sold for 700k at the Keeneland January sale following that race, he was transferred to Graham Motion for whom he captured an allowance race over this surface going 7f after bobbling at the start. Ran a decent figure in that spot but really needs to improve and has a tough post to deal with in his first two turn and stakes spot.
Money Supply - ran well when breaking his maiden first time out on the Davis undercard at 6 furlongs. Received a good debut figure (8 TG) but will need to improve again but this time from a tough post position against faster, more seasoned horses.
Spin Wheel - got a wide trip when making no impact in Holy Bull and draws even worse in here. Tough to see a scenario outside of a complete pace meltdown where the race totally falls apart for this deep closer to have a shot at hitting the board.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Ha! Tune into the Tampa Bay Downs feed on Saturday to get all of Barry’s selections as he is being featured on their in-house broadcast available on your ADW or streaming on Tampa’s Facebook or YouTube channels!
🌟Wanna give a shout out to Jason Beem who is calling his first Tampa Bay Derby since taking over for the legendary Richard Grunder who I believe called every edition of the race since the first one in 1981 (won by Paristo and trainer George Handy). Best of luck Beemie! 🍀
🚨I have exciting news to share: You can now read Going In Circles Digest in the new Substack app for 📱iPhone.
With the app, you’ll have a dedicated Inbox for my Substack and any others you subscribe to. New posts will never get lost in your email filters, or stuck in spam. Longer posts will never cut-off by your email app. Comments and rich media will all work seamlessly. Overall, it’s a big upgrade to the reading experience.
The Substack app is currently available for iOS. If you don’t have an Apple device, you can join the Android waitlist here.
🏇🏻Today’s Going in Circles Stakes preview is sponsored by Game of Silks. Check it out at www.silks.io or Click here
“THE FUTURE OF RACING IS ALMOST HERE”
