Stakes Preview - Lecomte GIII
Real Writing on Racing 💯
The Kentucky Derby is undoubtedly the biggest, most prestigious race in North American horse racing with Triple Crown the most important series of races. Going in Circles spends a great deal of time covering the Derby and and the four months of preps leading up to the first Saturday in May and I figured that taking an entry in the Tour De Force tournament was a natural fit for the show and Digest. It’s a 25 event (race) tourney building a bankroll based on the results of the preps and TC events themselves, culminating with the last leg in the Belmont Stakes. I promise to not bore you with mundane details of my wagering strategy but will put up a stakes preview for each of the 25 legs plus some bonus coverage starting today with the Lecomte Stakes at the Fairgrounds (bonus - Louisiana Stakes) which is the 14th race on the stellar marathon card.
Lecomte Stakes GIII 1 1/16 dirt 3yo FG 200k
Surfer Dude - Curlin colt makes his 2nd start of the current FG met here after showing speed and fading while finishing a distant 3rd in the Gun Runner in late December. The rail position may force the hand of jockey Gutierrez to show speed again to hold his position. While he is bred to go as long as they write races he has consistently lost ground in the stretch in almost every one of his six starts. Looking elsewhere.
Unified Report - Undefeated LA-bred by Unified profiles like a closing sprinter for trainer Dallas Stewart. While he did win going two turns (at 7f at Delta) and his last earned him a serious TG figure, this is a huge step up in class/distance and it’s difficult to ascertain if the Unified’s are going to stretch out effectively. You can make a case for using him at a long price underneath in exotics. (Off lasix today)
Pappacap - This Gun Runner colt will serve to give us a preview of how the Breeders Cup juvy form might hold up as he ran a good second in that spot in his last outing. Showed steady improvement after debut for Casse way back in May at GP going 5f and spent most of the late summer/fall out west running well. He isn’t a flashy type but should get a decent position stalking what should be a realistic pace scenario. Question to ponder, is he good enough to win despite potentially giving up ground and not being fully cranked for this early season/low points race? I’m guessing no.
Trafalgar - Lord Nelson colt tries stakes company after working his way through his maiden and nw1x conditions, old school style, for trainer Al Stall. In his first two races, both around one turn, he rallied from the back of the pack but his one race at the 1 1/16 distance last time out he laid close to a soft pace, grinding out a win despite drifting in the stretch. Hasn’t run a real fast figure yet but seems to be sitting on improvement. Not crazy about his chances to jump up today but check back on him six weeks from now.
Epicenter - Speedy Not the Time colt was an authoritative winner of the Gun Runner (ironically for team Gun Runner) on December 26 in his first try around two turns. Should get excellent stalking trip similar to what he carved out last time and is reunited with Joel Rosario who rode him when he broke his maiden back at Churchill’s fall meet. Has jumped up in TG figures in each of his races and it’s fair to question if he will continue to do so or plateau. Likely to be over bet in this spot but Asmussen isn’t one to waste races and will have him primed for a top effort. The question is can he repeat with another 5 3/4’s? At a short price I’m trying to beat him.
Cyberknife - Talented Gun Runner colt finally departs the maiden ranks after three pretty solid races, twice finishing first across the line but DQ’ed first time out. The Cox juggernaut adds blinkers after finding trouble of some sort in all three races. Despite the lugging in, bumping and appearing to pull himself up he has run fast on TG. Cox wins 33% adding blinkers but it is a rare move for him, only the 22nd time out of 6500 starts. Connections keep the price lower than it should be but would be no surprise. (Off lasix)
Blue Kentucky - Gelded son of Include exits a wide trip 3rd in the Sugar Bowl for the Aloha West connections. Makes his 2 turn-route debut in tough spot but has run excellent TG numbers. The post position draw outside of the other speed/stalkers may make it tricky for the under-rated Jareth Loveberry to work out a great trip but he is could find himself on the board here at a long price if he does.
Call Me Midnight - Improving Midnight Lute colt makes his seasons debut here but would be considered a longshot to hit the board without some sort of wild pace meltdown. Looks to be a class below the best here and simply gives up too much ground early to be a factor here.
Presidential - Off since breaking his maiden going a mile against overmatched foes in August at Indiana Grand, this is a very difficult return spot and note that until recently was training with the Asmussen B team at Louisiana Downs.
Bonus Race - Louisiana Stakes GIII 1 1/16 FG
Chess Chief - SCRATCHED
Mandaloun - Presenting perhaps the most accomplished non-first across the wire horse in modern 3 year old history. We know that he won the Haskell, we aren’t sure yet if he “won” the 2021 Kentucky Derby but he is a top quality horse and is a huge factor in this spot. Hasn’t run since the Haskell back in July and might be at a little fitness disadvantage to his main rival Midnight Bourbon today. This is supposed to be a prep for a run at the Saudi Cup/Dubai World Cup and though Cox has otherworldly stats across the board, his weakest numbers are off of the 90+ day layoff. Now those aren’t bad by any means (21% w/roi of 1.46) but are lower than most every other category. Today we are trying to beat him.
Midnight Bourbon - Last out disappointed in the Clark, fading to be third after setting a clear lead. He frequently loses ground in the stretch which is likely why he has failed to win since last January over this same FG surface at this same 1 1/16 distance. He does keep the best of company and figures to be a better 4 year old as he frequently acted a bit immature last year. It’s not very clever but the choice to get back into the winners circle after a 376 day absence.
Sprawl - Trainer Tommy Drury has done a nice job with this 5 year old son of City Zip, turning into a B- level midwest stakes horse. The problem he has today coming in off a non-effort back in October at CD is that there are some A level competition in this grade III race that makes it feel much more like a grade 1. Minor spoils only.
Pirate’s Punch - Never recaptured his 2020 form last year and would be a factor if he could get back to that. There is no reason however to indicate that will happen today though his trainer the underrated Grant Forster has been on fire lately.
Warrant - The lesser heralded of the Cox runners, the recently turned 4 yo son of Constitution has shown steady improvement while touring the country’s second level tracks (last 3 starts LS, MNR, RP). We noted Cox isn’t as good as he is with layoff runners as most other scenarios but this one could sneak in the bottom of your tickets. Him having to give 6 pounds to the rest of the field (2 to Spa City) would hopefully spur the racing department to change the conditions so that horses with old form off layoffs aren’t penalized needlessly.
Spa City - Good claim by sharp outfit but seems up against it here and the post doesn’t help.
The future of horseracing is almost here…
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