Soaked Oaks?
Real Writing on Racing 💯
The folly of early handicapping
We are all guilty of trying to figure out who is going to win big races waaaaaay too far in advance but no two races are likely more handicapped prematurely than the Kentucky Derby and Oaks. Perhaps the popular pari-mutuel future book pools that host track Churchill Downs starts posting in November is a factor but these two huge racing events seem to attract the more speculative discussion than any others. Hey I’m not complaining because Barry and I talk on the Big Monday show about the Derby in particular, starting in November so we are guilty as anyone. Plus the more positive talk about racing the better right? The problem is there are many, many more factors that need to be taken into consideration when handicapping any race other than just “who is better than who”. As I write this on Wednesday the potential nightmarish forecast for the Oaks day card☔️ is the ‘blinking neon sign’ advertising why it’s so difficult to accurately figure out races when pieces of the handicapping puzzle are still missing. That said we are going to take a look at the bulky Oaks field and some selected undercard stakes with the assumption that there will be some moisture in the courses! 🌧
Kentucky Oaks Gr.I $1250000 9 furlongs
Secret Oath - One of the deepest, talent-laden Kentucky Oaks in recent memory starts at the rail with one of the toughest horses to figure this weekend. Daughter of Arrogate started her career off with some promising races over the Churchill Downs surface before being no factor in her initial stakes try, 5th beaten 11 in the Golden Rod. When switched to trainer Lukas’ winter base of Oaklawn, Secret Oath did more than thrive, she became one of the fastest early season three year old fillies that we have seen. After blitzing an allowance group by 8 earning a super TG of 3.75 she improved when crushing both the Martha Washington and Honeybee fields including Oaks runner Yuugiri in the latter, pairing 1.5’s which are spectacularly high numbers for three year old fillies at any time (2021 Oaks winner Malathaat had a top TG of 4 going into the Oaks and runner up Search Results has been running 5’s). Lukas took at shot and ran her against the boys in the Arkansas Derby which was certainly a reasonable gamble as she already had earned sufficient points for the Oaks if it didn’t work out. Alas it didn’t as she got a troubled trip combined with a inane ride yet still ran a big race though was clearly tiring the last 75 yards. Check it out for yourself here (she is the 6). It was a race that looks better with some time separating the initial running and today but the one thing that has troubled me about her is did she peak too early? The trip notwithstanding she took a step back on the TG scale to a 3.75 which is still a strong number but will she needs able to improve off of that 35 days later or will she regress even further? It’s a super tough call, yes she gets a ++ improvement in pilot with the switch to Luis Saez but despite my enthusiasm for her 60 days ago, I’m leaning towards tossing her. There was a little bit of handwringing about drawing the rail but it’s really not an issue especially considering she has shown that taking kickback and riding the rail (see Honeybee) is fine. In general I want my Oaks and Derby winners moving forward on the big day and IMO I’m guessing she won’t.
Nostalgic- Broke her maiden in a sloooow maiden race going 8.5 furlongs at Belmont in October, took a shot in the Demoiselle finishing evenly when 4th, then took the obligatory Bill Mott turf try at Gulfstream but she didn’t run a step on the lawn. Mott shipped her back to NY where she busted up an allowance field before rallying up the inside to win the Gazelle and qualify for the Oaks. Her figures are still quite a ways behind the top runners and despite her improvement and likelihood of more coming she is probably going to have an ‘on the board finish’ as a ceiling on Friday.
Hidden Connection - Useful sort began her career with two sharp scores including the Grade III Pocahontas by 9 over this CD surface, before stumbling at the start and throwing in a clunker in the BC Juvy fillies. Her return to the races as a 3 year old was not great as she set ordinary fractions in the Rachael Alexandra before tiring to finish 4th. Using different tactics in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she stalked the pacesetting Echo Zulu and just missed nailing her at the wire, losing a head-bob. She got back to her top TG fig in that race (4.5) though she will need to improve once again to be considered for the top spot. Ragozin has her last race oddly fast (8 on their scale while giving Echo Zulu an 11 🤷🏼♂️) and either way she is a sneaky (and versatile) ‘on the board’ contender at a long price. Edit-I have no idea how she handles an off track
Nest - Despite being a 350k yearling turned into a stakes winning daughter of Curlin, she had sort of flew under the radar until destroying a decent group of fillies in the Grade I Ashland last out at Keeneland. That win, contested over a course labeled wet-fast, helped propel her all the way to favoritism in a very strong edition of the Kentucky Oaks. It’s difficult to find negatives with her as she is bred to relish the distance and potentially a muddy or sloppy surface, she has run huge speed figs (1 TG last out), has good tactical speed, is in great form and has top connections. She may or may not not win the race but I can’t fault anyone that likes her.
Goddess of Fire - In most years she would be a wise-guy type with strong figures, steady improvement and a top trainer yet because she keeps running 2nd would not have the spotlight shined on her. This years field is so deep that despite the obvious quality that she has shown, she has very little buzz. Mineshaft being her sire adds to her allure as he loved Churchill and has produced progeny that are best going two turns on the dirt but her dam side is more sprint orientated and she might not be best at 9 furlongs.
Yuugiri - Rebounded from 9 length drubbing at the hands of Secret Oath in the Honeybee by holding off maiden breaker Beguine to win the Grade III Fantasy at Oaklawn. She still seems to be more of a B team type and doesn’t appear likely she will get her preferred front running trip with Echo Zulu entered.
Echo Zulu - Admittedly I have been an unabashed fan of hers and was curious when her season got off to what seemed to be a late start if she was going to be competing in the Kentucky Oaks or even the Derby. While no reasoning was ever given, she did seem to come to hand quickly once she did settle into serious training. Her comeback race in the Fair Grounds Oaks was not nearly as brilliant (TG 6) as her tour de force, four race, two year old campaign had been. She did show stubbornness and determination in eking out the win over Hidden Connection but the figure came back as a career low despite her setting her own pace. You will rarely get a price as high as this on an undefeated two year old champion that should be on the lead as I think she might drift into being 4th choice. Asmussen hasn’t seemed particularly concerned about her comeback race as he rarely has them cranked 100% and outwardly has sounded very confident heading into the Oaks. Adding to the intrigue is she handled an off track very well at Saratoga last year and perhaps a sloppy surface will be favoring speed types?
Venti Valentine - Quality filly who has done nothing but improve prior to her last race where she seemed to have regressed off of her big one turn mile win in the Busher Invitational when running second to Nostalgic in the Gazelle. She really didn’t have much of an excuse after setting a tepid pace and being unable to hold on while going the 9 furlongs. Trainer Abreu seemed to be favoring staying home and racing around one turn before the Acorn she would have been the likely favorite but the connections did wind up shipping to Kentucky instead.
Desert Dawn - She ran a far better race last out wining the Santa Anita Oaks after a series of uninspiring efforts on the west coast circuit. You are usually skeptical of a huge jump in performance and I can’t find any reason to believe that race wasn’t a bit of a fluke. Trainer D’Amato has been very successful in California but is only batting 5% at Churchill in 86 starts.
Kathleen O. - She is a great human interest story as her 80 something year old owner buys his first horse and she winds up perhaps being the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks. This is a serious horse though, she rallied from far back to break her maiden in start number one and has looked better and better. Last out against Goddess of Fire and four dwarfs in the GP Oaks, she proved that she was she not simply a one turn closer but perhaps the best three year old period. Displaying instant acceleration when jockey Castellano asked her going past the quarter pole, she looked spectacular and received a big figure for that score (0 TG). Shug shipped her to Kentucky a month ago and despite being an ordinary morning work horse she has turned in a steady series of works and should be ready to fire once again. McGaughey won arguably the most famous off-track race ever contested at the venerable, 150 year old Churchill Downs back in the 1988 Breeders Cup Distaff when Personal Ensign capped off an undefeated, Hall of Fame career. Relive that amazing moment in racing history here. If you never saw that race before, you’re welcome. It’s entirely unfair to compare Kathleen O. to a racing legend but winning this Oaks might get her started on her own place in history.
Cocktail Moments - She might be in a little bit deeper waters than she currently wants to swim in but she is talented and has never missed the board in four starts. One positive is her only start over the Churchill surface was very, very good.
Candy Raid - Does. Not. Belong.
Shahama - Its rare that an undefeated and mostly untested filly is third string in her own barn but that is where we are at with this daughter of Munnings. Racing strictly in Dubai she hasn’t done a thing wrong though her estimated TG numbers (8) are on the slower side, we don’t have much to use as a comparison. That said post 13 doesn’t help as a wide trip is probably in the cards and honestly until the Dubai route to the Derby or Oaks shows some real results, I’m gonna take a pass on those shippers.
Turnerloose - I understand why owners want to participate in races like this, I really do. However this is the type of horse that seem like they have enough quality that improvement will boost them into the upper stratosphere of three year old fillies yet currently are not only not fast enough to win but suffer from a bad post and no apparent path to a decent trip.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Kathleen O.
Undercard Thoughts
The undercard on Oaks day is strong but perhaps compromised by the weather 🌧
Modesty (Gr. III) : The first edition of this race not held at Arlington Park (RIP) is a competitive one. We are assuming it remains on the newly installed CD grass course which likely will be less than firm when this race goes to the post around 12:45 eastern on Friday. Bleecker Street is the headliner looking for her 6th consecutive win to start her career. It’s not the toughest group and her main danger is probably barnmate Fluffy Socks so perhaps we get a Brown vs. Brown tussle.
La Troienne (Gr. I): The rarely seen grade 1 race held on a Friday at 1:30 looks like a duel between the early running Shedaresthedevil and the late running Pauline’s Pearl. Check out how the main track is playing as Shedaresthedevil doesn’t have a lot of other early speed types to deal with.
Alysheba (Gr. II): Excellent race with many serious contenders including Max Player, Weyburn, Olympiad, Fulsome and Happy Saver. Not sure that Max Player and Happy Saver are at their best at 8.5 furlongs but they are grade I quality horses on their best. Olympiad has been on a tear since Mott stretched him out around two turns and Weyburn was sharp in his return to the races on Florida Derby day.
Edgewood (Gr. II): Don’t be afraid to go deep in here, the difference between the favorites and second tier runners is slight. The Brownies will be the chalk but one to watch here is New Year’s Eve coming out of a tough trip in Fair Grounds stakes, adds Saez and blinkers and should be mid-single digits.
Eight Belles (Gr. II): The headliner will be Matareya who ran freaky last time out at Keeneland but there are a couple tough fillies she has to contend with in here. Tough spot to make your seasons debut but Gerrymander showed real ability as a two year old, Marissa's Lady has yet to be defeated in a sprint race in five tries and returns to the dirt at Churchill where she defeated Matareya last fall and our sleeper Sweet Dani Girl who got a tougher than it looked trip against Kathleen O. in her last.
Twin Spires Turf Sprint (Gr. II): The big story here is the horse that isn’t here, Golden Pal who dusted much of this crew in last months Shakertown at Keeneland. I am very cognizant of my weakness in handicapping turf sprints so take what I say with even more of a grain of salt than usual. Take a whole 🧂of salt perhaps lol. Diamond Oops won this race several years ago and perhaps he can get that same fortunate trip that he got that day for the same trainer/jockey combo. Had no shot last out as he was way too far back behind the blazing Golden Pal so he has to stay within shouting distance early. Gear Jockey is another that should have a shot with a decent trip at a decent price for one of the best guys you’d ever meet, Rusty Arnold. Sorry for touting your horse Rusty!
🚨My friend Peter May put together this Kentucky Derby Guide for beginners. It has a bunch of links to replays for all the Derby preps along with pro’s and con’s for all 20 entrants!
🎙Check out the Going in Circles podcast Big Monday Show Here!
Silks is here! www.silks.io for more details 🏇🏻🚀
