Sliding Softly into Derby season
Real Writing on Racing 💯
It’s officially mid-winter and because no untruths are allowed here in this forum I shall make my feelings on the subject brief. It stinks. It’s too cold, there is too much weather related drama, too many races taken off the turf, too many cancellations, too much tapioca…all of which leads me to have way too much free time. Thankfully, with Aqueduct, Laurel, Oaklawn, Turfway and others closed today, the Fair Grounds is hosting an excellent card capped off by the Lecomte (Gr III) which isn’t stellar but Kentucky Derby points will be earned by most, if not all if we get one more scratch. Gulfstream is firmly entrenched in its pre-Pegasus lull though they do have a stakes level allowance race (race 10 - post time 4:35) that hopefully isn’t inundated with scratches and four turf maiden races plus a Florida-bred stakes that looks like a chalk player special as Octane will be 3-5 in that spot.
📰 Sid Fernando is sharing wisdom again on his new Substack that he is parterning on with his associate Frances J. Karon. His latest can be found here as he makes some keen observations about the status of young sire Early Voting.
💸 The recently concluded Keeneland January sale showed further weakness in the bloodstock market as the median price was down 21% from last year’s results. Though the top of the market remained solid…. the top of the market is always solid and the issues in the sales industry mirror those in the racing side as the ‘meat and potatoes’ outfits continue to dwindle. I can’t convey strongly enough that there is real opportunity in owning thoroughbred racehorses right now if you don’t get caught up in overpaying for the same obvious horses that the fancy people all want.
🙄 California racing is a mess and the major players in that state operate like they are a tanking NBA team…except there is no Victor Wembanyama on the horizon to rescue everyone. Read about the latest fiasco here.
Today we will take a look at a trio of stakes from New Orleans, races 10, 12 and 13, the Silverbulletday, the Louisiana Stakes (Gr III) and the Lecomte (Gr III). There are also three other stakes events, some excellent maiden special weight races and a handful of nice allowances too on the marathon 13 race card.
Silverbulletday (Listed) $150,000 1 mile 70 yards 3yo fillies dirt
Perfect Shot - Gun Runner filly from Team Steve figures to be the filly to beat in here from the rail in this weak edition of the Silverbulletday. Broke her maiden last out going two turns for the first time, stalking a moderate pace before drawing clear of subsequent TP MSW winner Shiloh Princess. She has paired 9.75 TG and a should get a nice trip if new rider Rosario doesn’t get lost early and aggressively gains or maintains position in that first turn. Price matters especially considering the negative jockey switch but in our eyes she looms a big player.
Accommodate Eva - bizarrely was sent west to compete in the BC Juvy fillies (Gr I) after breaking her maiden in a pretty ordinary restricted MSW at Kee but rebounded when matched against La Bred company. She doesn’t figure to get better with distance or against open company and only the fact that this isn’t exactly a field of future Ruffians makes her even a remote possibility to hit the board.
Miss Code West - Your Oklahoma bred two year old filly of the year! Don’t get me wrong, she is undefeated in four starts and hasn’t been challenged while running solid figures for a regional stakes filly. Yet her last was a wire job over a wildly speed biased muddy track, the trainer is a novice with stakes horses (this is his first stakes winner) and an out of town jockey who may or may not decide that she should be on the lead again, muddies the waters. She doesn’t run bad numbers and she has improved a little bit each time but I’m not sure I see her stalking a tepid pace and finishing enough to beat these over this surface.
Play Good Pay Good - claimed last out of a winning maiden 50 effort by the DeepSouth resurgent Atras, she stretches out here and her major contribution is probably pace pressure. I like her chances about as much as I like her name, which would be…not much.
Ma Rae’s Girl - so far this Mendelssohn filly has three races at three different distances, at three different tracks using three different running styles. Don’t really know what she wants to do or even how good she is because her figs aren’t great either.
West Omaha - the likely favorite, she chased her barnmate through ordinary fractions in the prep for this after breaking her maiden in stylish fashion at Churchill in the prior start. Love the jock change to Saez and aggressive handling early might put her on or just off the lead. The issue is price as she figures to get overbet and her figures aren’t really faster than Perfect Shot’s are. She is a big player but looms to also be a big underlay at 3-5.
Noriskit Nobiscuit - another with a horrible name and a roundabout way of arriving here after a magical mystery tour at Delta last time. She isn’t out of the question as a fringe contender as she has raced greenly in the past and might be ready to put it all together here off the 77 day layoff, especially if Morales can secure a forward position without losing too much ground in that first turn. If you are looking for a bomb, this may be your girl.
Sistina Chapel - draws an unfortunate wide post again and a similar trip to her non-threatening 3rd in the Untappable stakes seems to be in the cards. She hasn’t shown the ability to overcome ground loss as of yet and while her price should be higher than her morning line, minor spoils looks to be her peak.
Louisiana Stakes (Gr III) $175,000 1 1/16 4&up dirt
Red Route One - Red Roof Inn isn’t that fast, his deep closing style isn’t all that conducive to winning over this distance at this course and the scratch of Kapuna hurts as a two pronged speed duel is far less likely to materialize than a three pronged one.
Smile Happy - the talent exists in this one but the brain occasionally malfunctions. Unsighted since the summer, he has been working at McPeek’s training center in Ocala but how that will translate to the race is unknown. Adding McPeek’s 5% off the 180 day layoff to the mix and you are looking at a really dicey proposition at anywhere close to the 9-5 morning line.
Saudi Crown - using this as a prep for the Saudi Cup (Gr I), the newly turned four year old son of Always Dreaming comes out of a chase and fade non-effort in the BC Classic when the connections made the mistake of trying to rate a speed horse. They may do it again here as the Middle Eastern race is their goal and getting involved in a cut throat speed duel with Five Star General likely isn’t part of their plan. IMO they should send hard to the lead and dictate terms as he isn’t exactly the passing type and he is also a one-time stakes winner so punting on his chance to win another shouldn’t be overlooked. He is also carrying an extra six pounds burden that his competition doesn’t have to deal with. These days it’s harder to figure out intentions of connections/jockeys than in the past which makes taking a short price here a tough ask as of the three scenarios that may occur, two (dueling through fast fractions or rating) are detrimental to his chances of winning.
Happy American - We always root for any charges sent out by Sir Neil Pessin but we have yet to guess correctly as to when this six year old gelding son of Runhappy will fire. His two best races (by far) came over this surface, including overcoming a slow pace to get up to win this same race by a neck last January. Yet his deep closing style makes it hard to endorse his chance too heartily as he figures to sit further back than even noted lagger Red Route One, though is quite a bit faster than that one on figures and the pace should at least be solid.
Five Star General - the presence of this eight year old son of Distorted Humor throws a monkey wrench in the plans of Saudi Crown as he does his best running on the lead and he isn’t prepping for a race on the other side of the world. Won the Tenacious Stakes last month when he stalked Brigadier General for the first three furlongs before taking over and holding sway late. Saudi Crown isn’t going to capitulate as easily and that same trip might not be as effective today. If you knew that Pedroza was going to send to the lead and try to loop Saudi Crown going into the first turn I’d love his chances but I’m skeptical that they won’t try to get a similar trip to their last, which IMO makes their task much more difficult.
Confidence Game - one of the most bizarre betting patterns of the year was this guy, despite dull form coming in, getting bet down to favoritism in the Tenacious. He ran erratically when finishing 5th, beaten 7 1/2 lengths and it’s hard to give him much more than token consideration here.
Kupuna - scratched
Lecomte (Gr III) $200,000 1 1/16 3yo’s Dirt (KY Derby Pts race)
Next Level - scratched
Nash - this race is an example of how super trainer influence has taken away much of the compelling storylines that these early season three year old Derby preps have. Despite offering 20 points to the winner, the Lecomte may wind up a 5 horse affair consisting only of super trainers second strings and FG prep regular Keith Desormeaux. This Medaglia D’Oro colt was all the rage after crushing maidens in start number two at Churchill, which was start number one around two turns. He didn’t have much excuse last out in the Gun Runner as he disappointed at 1-2, getting a nice stalking trip but not offering much in the lane when fading to 3rd. Perhaps Geroux tries to turn the tables on Track Phantom from the inside post by sending off to the lead because with little other early pace signed on, a similar stalking trip to last may produce similar results. His female side doesn’t scream more distance and I’m wondering if he is more likely destined for the Pat Day Mile (Gr II) on Derby day than the Kentucky Derby itself, though the Cox barn attrition rate with young three year olds (Drum Roll Please who won the Jerome at the Big A a few weeks back is already off the trail) is high.
Tizzy Indy - don’t let anyone ever tell you that the modern version of Calumet Farm is afraid to run their horses. This son of Take Charge Indy seems up against it here but at least they are trying.
Can Group - deep closing grass horse returning to the dirt is usually not a scenario that leads to much success. These types often look good losing as the son of Good Samaritan did in the BC Juvy Turf last out, yet in a race with a short field and a spotty pace scenario he is a hard one to recommend unless some unexpected nuclear speed duel materializes.
Ethan Energy - shows same sprint-stretchout pattern as barnmate Nash, scoring impressively while racing against a strong speed bias over this surface on Dec 23. Picks up Saez which is a plus but faces a tepid potential pace scenario and you have to winder if he may regress after the big effort, especially considering he didn’t do much running in his debut.
Lat Long - the Liam’s Map colt has been remarkably consistent in his five race career, running the same 9 and change TG time after time. He’d benefit from a representative field rather than what is he is getting here as his stalking style may wind up being a chasing style if the pace doesn’t heat up. At some point he will either break through those 9’s or regress and this is a race ripe for an upset if that improvement were to happen. McPeek almost pulled off an upset in last years Risen Star with Sun Thunder and I’m not suggesting that this guy will, but it’s not impossible.
Track Phantom - Quality Road colt has progressed nicely with his score in the Gun a runner being his best yet. That said, his draw might offer a tougher task as Rosario is going to have to make an early decision to try to grab the early lead or potentially stalk Nash which may wind up allowing that one to turn the tables on him. If he is good enough, he can win and move onto the next step on the Derby trail but I’m pretty sure I won’t be betting on that happening at 8-5. This is a tough race to have much conviction about and I’m not bullish on any first Saturday in May impact either.
Awesome Road - scratched
📸With the news of the unexpected demise of Sports Illustrated breaking yesterday, we perused through some of the racing related covers of that iconic magazine through the years. 🏇🏻
