Sanctity during the last days of Aqueduct?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Much is spoken these days about The Game and what’s ‘good’ for or conversely what’s ‘bad’ for it. The Game is fluidly translated to the legalized wagering activity called horse racing and those satellite businesses that operate within its sphere of influence though often independent of its gravity.

Legalized wagering activity you say? Are we not a sport?

“It’s complicated” as an answer to that question would be politically correct but it would also be a cop out because it’s really not all that complex anymore. Horseracing isn’t a sport in a traditional sense because in the plainest of terms, it doesn’t seem as though you can “win” at racing anymore, yet you can absolutely lose. Oh sure every race technically has a winner and several losers but most races aren’t held for any other reason but to grind out a paycheck, an equine 9 to 5 in a manner of speaking. What goes on at the Zia Parks and Jack Thistledowns of the racing scene are barely more than equine keno, scant few people wagering on these events with little interest beyond the numbers that are posted on the tote after the results go official. The page is quickly turned and the next group of unheralded competitors are led to the non-descript paddock, quietly saddled in front of a handful of mostly disinterested observers, often casino players outside looking to catch a few minutes of non-filtered air. Most tracks don’t employ a publicity department, press releases about that days feature race aren’t sent to the local newspapers, no scribes populate the abandoned press boxes. These are the type of events which make up the majority of the 33,000 or so races run every year in the United States. They aren’t run for any reason other than the valuation of each group of horses was similar, maiden claiming and claimers make up a huge percentage of races carded and the vast majority of them aren’t particularly sporting at all.

Why is this important when considering the overall status of the game?

It matters because most people that set out to discuss the issues of the day, including the self-appointed Commissioner, Cap’t Mike Repole, jump right past the meat and potatoes section of racing to address the first world issues like the purse of the Kentucky Derby. The biggest mistake that is made, time after time, is not understanding that the layers of a complicated industry have to be addressed starting with the foundation, not the final coat of paint or the roof. The basics are broken, supply and demand is out of whack and the issues of the industry, from breeding quandaries, to the top heavy sales arena, to the early training of horses, to a broken talent distribution system, to both internal and external racetrack dysfunction, to an increasingly toxic wagering environment, to the many failures of poorly crafted aftercare programs, to often harmful regulatory processes…are widespread. We do almost nothing right and tweaks have mostly furthered the damaging effects, not become helpful fixes. It needs to be blown up and literally every person in any position of power should be reevaluated yet that is never, ever going to even remotely happen.

Are we doomed?

In the plainest of terms? Yes. There will be no horses racing around racetracks in 100 years. Period. This isn’t exactly a Nostradamus type prediction, a 100 years ago Man O’ War’s first crop was on the ground and there was but a single Triple Crown winner (Sir Barton) for context on how long 100 years is. Will racing be around in 50 years? I’d say it’s very doubtful and it’s a little more sobering when thinking that 50 years ago was the year of Secretariat. What about 20 years from now? I’d give it about a 50% chance to survive that long which is pretty scary considering that Mineshaft was the 2003 Horse of the Year and he is still hard at work at stud. Left unsaid is that these are predictions based on the current state of racing which is ‘Titanic right before it hit the iceberg’-like, and sports wagering was probably iceberg number one to be struck.

Can we do much to mitigate this ugly timeline?

In a perfect world scenario where the power players heeded the emergency warnings flashing like Vegas style neon signs, sure we could. We can’t change much of what ails the industry in terms of outside actions like unprecedented competition but fixing the basics of racing would go a long ways towards lengthening its life span. Just as a healthy diet, plenty of sleep and exercise assists humans in living longer, healthier lives, it’s not a coincidence that racing eats nothing but greasy, fast food, drinks way too much, smokes like a chimney, never sleeps and the only exercise to be found is dragging post times.

Time is running out. It’s long past time to stop being nice. Enjoy your day!

🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Race of the day which is the Hollywood Derby which inexplicably has maintained its grade 1 status once again. Click here for the past performances.

☀️ Gulfstream’s Championship meet kicks into gear today with two divisions of the FSS stakes that you can read about here. When the final demise of thoroughbred racing does finally come to pass, many will sadly recall the installation of Tapeta in Hallandale as one of the dominoes that fell, sucking the life out of what was considered one of the best meets of the year.

⚖️ Justify just lost for the first time, though it was inside a court room as a Federal judge has overturned his Santa Anita Derby win after the CHRB completely botched the entire post-race testing/adjudication process (more than once). Of course the handwringing over his Kentucky Derby eligibility has been batted about on social media with silly scenarios that Churchill can somehow retroactively strip him of his Kentucky Derby win, which most assuredly will never happen. Regardless of what anyone thinks they know, the horse was eligible at the time of entry for the Derby and prior to his winning the race and literally has been up until yesterday. Matt Hegarty covers it here. Naturally the outcry is louder because of the Baffert involvement but the focus of disgust should be targeted at the CHRB and the fact that rather than cleaning house, the Governor of California consistently allows the CHRB to screw up time and time again. Racing never had a chance to “police itself”, these bureaucratic nightmares sitting in ivory towers have always been the police and now we just have different flavors to be disappointed in.

🗺️ One of the best cards of racing happens later tonight in Hong Kong as Sha Tin hosts the International races. Download the HKJC guide for the races Here

---

Demoiselle (Gr II) $250,000 2yo fillies 1 1/8 dirt

1. Cozee Rags - pulled off Keeneland shocker before decent try against a good filly in CD allowance. The stretch to two turns and added distance should be within her scope and at huge price she is interesting in a field full of question marks.

2. Dolomite - NY bred filly by Unified has run well in both starts. Needs to improve quite a bit but the two turn dynamic and slower early pace may play better for her than one turn races. Does exit productive race and figures to get nice trip here in this group with mostly spotty form.

3. Life Talk - logical favorite off of decent effort when 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile fillies last month at Santa Anita. Her effort in the mud the start prior in the Frizette (Gr I) was odd as she ranged up on the inside like she was going to run by the field before fading late. Certainly is a big player in here but seems far from unbeatable at 8/5 morning line.

4. Most of All - 4th start, 4th different type of race. Thus far in her career she has sprinted on the dirt, run two turns on the turf, ran a one turn mile (off the grass) in her last and now tries two turns on the main track. Her dam Indulgent was a Bernardini mare than mostly sprinted on the dirt though this filly is by Quality Road, who produces all manners of runners. Until she runs faster, we will pass.

5. Vino Rouge - Davis may have moved a little too soon into a relatively quick pace last time in the Tempted over this surface when she got run down while finishing second. Adds blinkers and could find herself on the lead here as the pace scenario doesn’t appear to be strong. Dangerous.

6. Caress - exits fair try in Maryland sprint stakes, stretches out here but not convinced that she is made for it. Dam was well-bred European lightweight that hasn’t produced any successful two turn dirt horses and going 6f to 9f isn’t easily done.

7. Shimmering Allure - stormed by the field going a one turn mile in the Tempted after an ideal early pace setup. Has plenty of experience as this is start number seven and did ok at 8.5 furlongs when 4th in the Alcibiades (Gr I) against a rougher crowd. Can’t disagree with anyone taking a favorable view of her here but I prefer trying to beat these types coming off of rallying one turn wins when stretched out into questionable pace scenario route affairs.

8. Ringy Dingy - Dialed In filly won a productive maiden race over this track in September prior to shipping south to Delaware Park to beat a very soft group in the White Clay Creek stakes in October. The full sister to Defunded should find the added distance to her liking and the presence of a slumping Katie Davis should add to the price. Upset possibilty.

9. Caldwell Luvs Gold - Goldencents filly exits state bred ranks to tackle graded stakes foes off of two straight times as the odd’s on beaten favorite, albeit with light excuses both times. Figures to be wide around at least one of the turns and we aren’t that enthusiastic about her chances anyway.

Remsen (Gr II) $250,000 2yo 1 1/8 dirt

1. Le Dom Bro - tough spot for colt with only a restricted MSW win, that at 6 furlongs back in August. Stretches to 9 furlongs and has never shown much reason for optimism in this type of race at this time.

2. Domestic Product - raced greenly when not doing much running first time out back in August but Brown added blinkers and stretched out to this 9 furlong distance in his return on Oct 27th. Likely to be forwardly placed in a race with a unsettled early pace scenario ( we have seen those turn into slow pace affairs far too often on the NYRA circuit to trust that there will be a solid early tempo) and he is a logical contender at a price with any sort of improvement.

3. Dornuch - being a full brother to the defending Kentucky Derby champ Mage raised the attention meter for this colt, who has run well in all three starts, including an easy maiden score last out at Keeneland following a couple of solid 2nd place finishes including in the Sapling at Monmouth. He has improved in all three starts and comes into this as the morning line favorite with tactical ability and a pedigree that says yes to the added distance. Gargan won this race last year with a Good Magic colt also though Dubyuhnell wasn’t able to parlay the win into any sort of three year old campaign. Saez adds to the appeal and while you probably don’t want to bet him an an underlaid price, he has a big chance to get the money here.

4. Moonlight - Audible colt has run well in all three of his races including a runner up spot in the Street Sense stakes at Churchill a week before the Breeders Cup. That race, run in the slop, was a bit of a regression for him though it was his first two turn dirt race and obviously the wet track may have played a role. Loses Saez to Dornuch but picks up Irad who is Pletcher’s top guy anyway.

5. Drumroll Please - Hard Spun colt broke his maiden over this surface last out against a mediocre bunch going a one turn mile. Should sit a decent trip and has every right to stretch out fine, just a question mark if the Pa bred is good enough?

6. Billal - chased Breeders Cup champ Fierceness in their debuts before throttling a small group of maidens going 7f over a wet Aqueduct surface. Chased to no avail when a distant 3rd in the Nashua, sheds blinkers here and tries two turns which his pedigree suggests shouldn’t be an issue. I’m not crazy about his chances but improvement gets him in the mix.

7. Sierra Leone - while everyone was focused on the action out west on Breeders Cup Saturday, Chad Brown unveiled this $2.3 million dollar yearling purchase by Gun Runner over this same track at Aqueduct. He ran well in his debut, powering away down the stretch to win the mile affair by a little more than a length. The field he beat that day is a little suspect at this point and the while the stretchout should be fine, he may be overbet here as he was 3-1 first time out and taking less than that against a much better field is not the wisest of plays.

8. Where’s Chris - stretched out to a mile in the Nashua the day after the Breeders Cup, stalked Futurity winner Book’em Danno and wore him down in late stretch to collect the stakes score at 19-1. Trainer Dutrow has been white-hot (insert White Abarrio joke here) and ignore anything he puts in the entries at your own peril.

9. Copper Tax - Maryland shipper makes start number seven here after winning five consecutive races after a close second in his debut back in June. Has mostly been sprinting though the son of freshman stallion Copper Bullet does have a listed stakes win going a mile at Delaware Park. The distance is a big question mark as his dam was a sprinter and his only sibling to run is as slow as molasses. Like that Capauano has used long distance works to prepare him but he will be tested for class here.

10. Private Desire - bookended a big maiden breaking performance with two relatively mediocre efforts including last time when no factor in the Nashua. Dam was a sprinter and unlike many, I’m wary of Constitution on the dirt as they simply aren’t very many that are top class for a stallion that stands for $110,000 and gets a lot of expensive sales babies, including this one for $350k as a yearling. He went to stud in 2016 and we are almost in 2024 and his best runners this season were in Chile, and at Woodbine and Kentucky Downs, none of which runs high class dirt races. Let the sales market spend whatever they’d like on them but from a wagering standpoint make them beat you in graded stakes on the dirt until they start to prove it on the track itself.