Sam Davis + Sunshine = Big Day for Tampa Bay

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Last weekend we had Kentucky Derby prep overload as a weather delay in Arkansas provided us with the quirk of four separate 3 yo prep races on a single Saturday. Not so this weekend as the diminutive, old school track, Tampa Bay Downs hosts its second biggest day of the year, the Sam Davis (Gr III) with a solid undercard, that gets the spotlight all to itself. The weather report from our people on the ground down there say low 80’s and clear skies are on the docket, should be fast and firm and ‘The Sniper’ Barry Spears himself, will be making a live on-track appearance.

Don’t get me wrong, Tampa Bay Downs is one of my favorite track’s but one thing that I don’t like is their dubious practice of adding statebred money to the overall stakes purses and calling it ‘guaranteed’. For instance the Pelican is listed as a $100,000 guaranteed purse with $400 entry/$400 starting fees yet there is actually only $75,000 available for a non-FL bred, and even that extra 25k isn’t processed as a normal purse distribution. According to the conditions, the entire $25k is only awarded if a registered FL bred wins the race, a FL bred that runs second or third gets nothing. Essentially it’s a bonus, not a purse. At the very least, make these races ‘added money’ events where the entry/starting fees goes into the purse, the extra $6400 that the owners put up shouldn’t be used to subsidize the purse accounts portion of the $75,000, it should be used to grow the actual purse to $81,400. It’s one of those issues that isn’t the end of the world and the Tampa stakes are amazingly resilient in terms of field size and quality, but it’s a deceptive practice to guarantee a purse that isn’t actually the purse you will be doling out.

✈️ Check out this story by Sid Fernando about early impressions of Flightline.

🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s of the Sam F Davis (Gr III) Here.

🤬 The Illinois legislature passed a bill allowing casinos to be built at racetracks in 2020 and yet here we are in 2024 and not only aren’t the states two remaining tracks not operating their allowed casinos, they aren’t even close to doing so. Read about it Here.

📺 Check out the Sniper’s latest podcast visit with the Daily Double show on the Trust the Prophets network covering the late Pick 5 at Tampa Saturday, a stakes laden sequence. Click here to watch.

🇺🇸 In case you missed the latest Going in Circles Big Monday show you can find it Here 🎙️

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Suncoast Stakes (L) $150,000 3yo fillies 1 mile 40 yds (20 KO Pts)

1. Whocouldaskformo - wide trips in both races including easy maiden breaker over this surface in December though it was a very weak field. Should get nice trip from inside in compact group but needs to improve a lot to get in range of the prior stakes winners in here.

2. Power Squeeze - carved out a nice start to her career in the mid-Atlantic region, the daughter of Union Rags broke her maiden in an off the grass MSW at Delaware Park before shipping south. Made huge leap when smoking listed stakes company in the Cash Run (L) at GP on January 1 earning very solid 6 TG. Might be at a pace disadvantage here but if Life Talk doesn’t show up, she is the likely beneficiary.

3. America’s Vow - homebred Constitution filly struggled against better in Kentucky before shipping south and trouncing maidens here in early December. She still has to improve a lot to be competitive here.

4. Life Talk - odds-on favorite here coming off wire to wire win in the Demoiselle (Gr II) at the Big A in early December. This is the type of horse that you’d love to play against at 1-5 as this is a clearly a stepping-stone towards the KY Oaks (Gr I) and it was just last year that Wonder Wheel went down in flames at 2-5 in this race. Interestingly she is not the fastest in here on TG (Power Squeeze is) but she has a nice developing pattern and Pletcher isn’t one to send horses into races, even preps, that aren’t 100% well meant. Yet begrudgingly I admit that the daughter of Gun Runner should get a great trip, figures to move forward from a nice 2 year old season and is a lot more likely to win than get beat.

5. Managing Mischief - probable pacesetter by freshman stallion sensation, Maximus Mischief, she has to run much, much better than she has thus far to even hold on for a piece. The jury is still out if the sires progeny will handle two turns as deftly as his two year old first crop did sprinting.

6. Gorgeous Girl - gray Liam’s Map filly ran really well in the Gasparilla, closing stoutly to just miss against a loose on the lead Mystic Lake. Bombed when stretched out last fall but that was on the grass and her pedigree suggests that the two turns shouldn’t be an issue for her. Has improved on the TG scale in every one of her 4 dirt races and further development puts her in the mix for veteran trainer Greg Sacco, who is enjoying an excellent season thus far at Tampa. The dapper Sacco is also the prohibitive chalk to be the best dressed trainer on the card.

Minaret Stakes $50,000 4 and up Fillies and mares 6 furlongs

1. Dream Concert - an amazingly salty 50k stakes race with a solid field. This filly has done well at Tampa and at the 6f distance with respective records of 5-1-3-0 and 4-3-1-0. Cuts back here after valid excuse (wide trip) 2nd in the 1 1/16 Wayward Lass last month. Drawing the rail makes her trip a bit trickier though as she does like to be in the clear and there are some fast fillies outside of her. Still she is the fastest filly in the race in terms of TG figs and the cutback should help.

2. Chi Town Lady - last year was pretty much a lost season for this grade 1 winning daughter of Verrazano. Hasn’t raced since an even effort when 3rd last June in a Belmont allowance race. Her one-run, closing style isn’t ideal at Tampa but there is a lot of speed signed on here before scratches and truthfully her TG figs are ordinary. Fade her at a short price and if she rolls by late, just turn the page

3. Unifying - Union Rags filly sports excellent record sprinting (6-3-2-1) and figures to get a great trip setting up shop behind the expected quick early pace. Had a nice tightener off the layoff in late December should have her primed for a big effort for the younger Mott.

4. Lady Radler - she upset the Dogwood (Gr III) last fall before getting trounced in the Raven Run (Gr II) at Keeneland. Looking back, the Dogwood was a negative key race as the fillies exiting that event finished 12th, 8th, 5th, 9th, 8th, 2nd (at Delta Downs) and 8th in their next races. It is always tough to totally dismiss a horse that can finish in a race dripping with early pace but at anything close to the 9-2 morning line, we’d have to pass.

5. Dreaming of Snow - FL bred by Jess Dream clearly has an affinity for the Oldsmar surface as she is 6-3-1-0 with 189k of her 229k lifetime earned there. That said she just seems too slow to beat these and might just serve as a pace heater.

6. Bazinga C - tough call as horses exiting the Kreiser barn generally lose form as this one did when even Maryland training wizard Russell couldn’t get her to move forward after a stellar 3 yo season. Yet new trainer Joseph is firing on all cylinders at Tampa this winter and the daughter of Exaggerator operates on the fringes of fast enough figs plus has a beneficial running style for this track/race. Sleeper but demand double digit odds.

7. Flag Woman - not impossible but also not likely. For fans of 1st time Paco.

8. Poiema - with a clean break, the Neolithic filly will likely be caught up in a potential early pace battle and I don’t see a great path to victory for her.

9. Holiday Decision - the decision to ship this filly from Kentucky to be overmatched in a 50k stakes race wasn’t a wise one.

Pelican Stakes (L) $100,000 4 and Up 6 furlongs

1. Hurricane J - seems up against it here as a one way speed horse from post one in a race that is just overflowing with early speed types, most of which are faster than this guy.

2. Nakatomi - it’s hard to have seen the tremendous third place performance in the Breeders Cup Sprint coming. Against two horses that would just lay waste to this group (Elite Power and Gunite) Nakatomi under Luis Saez flashed a rare bit of early speed, actually heading Speed Boat Beach for almost a 1/4 mile, settled back to stalk the solid pace from the inside till mid-stretch when Saez angled outside and he commenced to re-rally and was gaining as they hit the wire. The form for that race has held up well as Speed Boat Beach, The Chosen Vron and Hoist the Gold all returned to impressively win stakes next out. Assuming this is a prep for the Dubai Golden Shaheen (Gr I), a $2,000,000 sprint that foe Sibelius won a year ago after prepping in the Pelican. However if he is on his game and can show enough not to lag, this field loaded with early speed which should bode well for him at a short price.

3. Doctor Oscar - adds more early speed to race that is filled to the brim with it.

4. Super Ocho (Chi) - another one way front runner that has never shown any ability to rate. As the field currently stands (no scratches) it’s hard to see how he isn’t directly involved with a massive pace duel.

5. Mish - not to sound like a broken record but yet another early pace presser that might not survive the rapid fractions.

6. Little Vic - the pace scenario should favor this 5yo but he has not been in good form since bleeding in the Carter (Gr I) after running a huge race in the Tom Fool (Gr II) in the mud. I’m gonna take a pass on him until his form straightens back out.

7. Sibelius - Trainer O’Dwyer using the old “if it’s not broke don’t fix it” theory with this 6 yo Not This Time gelding. Last year used the Mr Prospector (Gr III)-Pelican route to Dubai, where he upset the Golden Shaheen (Gr I) under a world class steer from Ryan Moore. Junior Alvarado can set up shop chasing from the outside and try to out-finish Nakatomi.

8. Carmel Chip - has won 7 times since D’Angelo claimed this 6yo son of Midshipman off of Super Ocho (Chi)’s trainer last January, albeit against cheaper classes. In sharp form with 3 wins in his last 4 starts though all of the wins were in the slop and the off the board finish was on a dry track. The age old clash between fast figures earned against softer company versus classy stakes veterans is at play here.

Sam Davis (Gr III) $250,000 3 yo 1 1/16 (20 KYD points)

1. El Principito - cmon…might serve as cheap speed to ensure the early pace is honest but has been in impossible spots since breaking his maiden.

2. Tireless - shouldn’t be too tired since he has yet to run a figure that puts him on the board here, despite this being a very soft group for a KY Derby points prep. Does have some early foot so should get a decent position going into the first turn.

3. Patriot Spirit - interesting that the connections saved the $600 and didn’t nominate to the Triple Crown series yet lands in a Derby prep going two turns anyway. His only non-sprint effort was when son of Constitution got involved in a maniacal speed duel (22.37 x 44.67) in the one mile Iroquois (Gr III) before stopping late. There is other speed in here so the opportunity to steal it on the front end is not a likely scenario. You may not get the price you deserve but a flyer on him stretching out with a prudent ride isn’t the worst play, it’s make sure you get better than the morning line price.

4. Crazy Mason - just got up in allowance prep for this race a month ago, overcoming a ludicrously slow early pace in doing so. Before that was a strong second to Patriot Spirit in the Inaugural before that. He isn’t particularly fast but does have some versatility and the 1 1/16 should be within his scope, especially if a swift early pace materializes.

5. No More Time - Not this Time colt saw his chances dampened when he missed the break in the Mucho Macho Man at GP. From there he chased a solid pace, angled 5 wide and made a menacing move on the turn before finally tiring late from his efforts. A good break that puts him into a stalking position without having to be used catching up will greatly enhance his chances in here. 10-1 morning line is a square price on the Iowa bred with Paco taking over the reins for the first time.

6. Agate Road - Pletcher was scheduled to have the prohibitive favorite in here but Locked spiked a fever and was rerouted to the Risen Star. After huddling with the Commish, they decided to scratch this Quality Road colt from a minor grass stake last weekend at GP to tackle dirt here. In his turf races he is an erratic horse who seems to run in spots and is easily distracted. How that translates to the dirt with a faster early pace and plenty of kickback is anyone’s guess but anything close to the 7-2 morning line is far too short for me to participate in this experiment.

7. Copper Tax - had no chance with the wide draw in the Remsen (Gr II), getting hung 5 deep in the first turn is an impossible handicap to overcome. He clearly has talent as there are very few 3 year olds with 5 wins but IMO he is going to be more effective around one turn at shorter distances than going longer.

8. Everdoit - can’t say that I have a great handle on what sons of Gary D are good at but for this gelding this sure seems like a tough spot.

9. Change of Command - love the progression that he has made since getting drilled in his debut by Fierceness back in August. That said, the Into Mischief colt still hasn’t run all that fast and I find it interesting that Shug adds blinkers (he does not use blinkers often) after the allowance win in early January. There is speed inside and Gafflione has to avoid being hung too wide in the first turn while still establishing a good stalking position, potentially a tricky proposition with blinkers added.

10. West Saratoga - made a lot of progress from his early season debut at Keeneland last April, culminating in an upset victory in the Iroquois (Gr III) in September. That said I am guessing that much of his improvement has already occurred and later maturing horses will be passing him by.

11. Fulmineo - had been running well on the turf, his Breeders Cup Juvy Turf (Gr I) was a very difficult task from a wide post. Switched back to the dirt in the Crazy Mason allowance race, he got himself into trouble from the outset by slamming into the starting gate, getting an aggressive ride while wide and just getting a little leg weary late. The wide draw complicates matters and the early pace will most certainly be more rapid than his last so we may find out how he likes kickback.

12. Elysian Meadows - New York bred City of Light colt is two for two, both state breds sprint races with moderate TG’s. Has shown some versatility in his running style in both starts, this isn’t a strong group and if Alvarado can navigate the first turn in a reasonable fashion, he maybe be able to get on the board at a huge price.

📽️ We are taking it back to 2007’s Sam F Davis stakes won by Any Given Saturday as called by the legendary Richard Grunder