Roll Tide…the Alabama saves the day
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Saturday musings
The 2021 Saratoga meet has been one of the wettest seasons in recent memory. I don’t have any official stats to impress you with but it feels like we haven’t gone more than a few days without some sort of weather-related issue wreaking havoc with the card. In an era where turf races are so popular and field size is so spotty (to be kind), off the grass events and muddy tracks are killers for those looking for the type of racing that one expects to see at America’s premier race meeting. There are underlying foundational issues at hand here, a circuit like NYRA with enormous purses, tons of stall space and great facilities shouldn’t be regularly carding five horse claiming races and stakes but that is a topic for a different day.
Today’s card is was relatively weak before the 5th, 6th and 11th races came off the turf. The two grass stakes were salvaged but we are talking about a five horse turf sprint with two decidedly non-grass fillies entered and a six horse Lake Placid which is a disappointment as the three year old fillies going long on the turf division has had solid field size all spring and summer. Carding two Saturday stakes on the grass and getting eleven total entries including zero from current leading trainer Mike Maker, turf master Chris Clement, perennial Saratoga kingpin Todd Pletcher or the huge national outfits of Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox is a disappointment. The second race is an entry level allowance going seven furlongs that was carded with five. The fourth is a large field of cheap NY bred maidens that looks more like something found at Aqueduct in February. The fifth and sixth were decent races prior to the surface switch due to that damn rain and the seventh is a very Saratoga-worthy maiden special weight sprinting on the dirt which may be wet by that point. The eighth race is a conditioned claiming race carded with ten entrants and frankly these types of races are badly needed to make the horizontal wagers that have become so popular worth playing. The 11th is an off the grass maiden special that has a 3-5 morning line main track only entrant which is par for today’s course.
The featured tenth race, however, is an excellent edition of the Alabama, the ancient female version of the Travers that has been won by many legends of the sport. Each of the seven fillies entered is a worthy participant, six are graded stakes winners and that one that isn’t is an up and comer by the best stallion in the land who has never missed the board in her career and won the last two by open lengths. Here is a look at the field with our comments:
The Alabama 3 year old fillies 1 1/4 $600000
Crazy Beautiful - She ran well capturing the GP Oaks leading up to a troubled trip non-effort in the Kentucky Oaks. Rebounded from that to beat relatively modest field in the grade 2 Summer Oaks at SA, then cruised in the grade 3 Delaware Oaks and importantly blew through her speed figure ceiling to earn a 2 on TG which makes her the co-fastest filly in here. McPeek’s barn was stuck in quarantine which forced her to miss the CCA Oaks earlier in the meet which might be a blessing as she had had more time to recover from that huge effort. The rail doesn’t hurt as she can save ground and take up a stalking position behind the likely pacesetter Played Hard.
Will’s Secret - Comes in here off terrible race in the Indiana Oaks where she was the 2-1 favorite and never really got out of a gallop. Prior to that she ran sneaky good when third in both the grade 1 Ashland and Kentucky Oaks, earning TG #’s that put her among the divisions best. Has worked well for this and if you are willing to throw out the non-effort in the last, she could be a solid price with a good chance to get on the board with a return to either of her April races. The distance shouldn’t hurt and Jon Court coming in to ride over a Spa regular should help the price even more.
Clairiere - A Curlin filly out of a Bernardini mare should be right at home going 1 1/4 yet her best running style might be hampered once again due to the tepid pace scenario. She has never run a bad race in seven lifetime starts but as a slow starting closer, she often has a higher hill to climb than fillies with more tactical speed. In the CCA Oaks Irad sent her on a mission down the backside thinking that Malathaat was going to be dangerous on an uncontested lead in a tiny field. That strategy didn’t pay off as she was gassed by the quarter pole and for the first time in her career was going the wrong way in the stretch. She has run consistently her entire career speed figure-wise BUT she was running 6 on TG last fall as a two year old and she is still running 6’s. At some point she figures to jump up past that number but it’s hard to know when.
Maracuja - HUGE improvement to win the CCA Oaks on the re-rally makes me skeptical that she can duplicate that effort, especially in a bigger field where the race should be more truly run. Not for me.
Played Hard - Improving filly who may be the X-factor in here was she is the logical pace setter with a big wire to wire score over the surface earlier in the meet. She is a little slower than the top contenders with a 6 TG last out being her best number but she has steadily improved and as the likely dictating speed, she should get a ground saving trip on both turns. Trainer Bauer has had a solid meet so far and if leading rider Saez can ration out her speed, she might be good enough to get a piece.
Malathaat - Well the hype train went off the tracks after she suffered her first defeat in the CCA Oaks albeit with valid excuses. She is a good filly but probably was a bit overhyped due to having had an undefeated record. Sent from the outset and being pressed by Clairiere through fast 2nd and 3rd quarters, she was softened up just enough to not be able to hold off Maracuja. That style is not her best and the word was that the Kentucky Oaks might have knocked her down a little longer than normal so perhaps with that added fitness, she will be back on her A game today. She regressed a bit from a 2 TG to a 4.5 and while a return to a 2 would make her formidable today, ground loss while achieving that number may ultimately make her a play against at an expected short price.
Army Wife - She is stepping up to the big leagues after dusting two lesser fields in the Black Eyed Susan and Iowa Oaks. Her main issue is ground loss as she is another that does her best running stalking the pace from mid-pack and her best TG thus far is only a 6. Maker runners have produced a lot of lifetime best efforts at this meet but she is likely to be overbet in here versus her actual chance of winning. Only if you believe in magic 🪄
🏇🏻Today’s Del Mar Mile (7th race) is a great matchup between Hit the Road, Smooth Like Straight and Mo Forza.
🏇🏻 I don’t know what to make of Dream Shake’s schedule but he seems to be as confused as me.
🏇🏻 Soaring Sky (Ire) ⭐️⭐️⭐️ in the Del Mar Oaks which feels more like a grade 2 than a grade 1
🏇🏻 Good luck in the Pacific Classic which has quantity not quality but I guess we will take what we can get. I’m pretty sure Candy Ride (Arg) could beat this group…and he is 22
🏇🏻 The Iselin at Monmouth ain’t what it used to be but will be interesting to see how Code of Honor performs in a race where he looks to be the best horse. Phat Man on lasix might be the main danger.
🏇🏻 RIP to Juan Arias (not the GP trainer who is still very much alive) who trained Canonero II to win the 1971 Kentucky Derby in what was probably one of the most underrated training achievements in modern racing history.
🏇🏻 The Personal Ensign looms as a great race with Letruska, Swiss Skydiver and Harvey’s Lil Goil all pointing there.
🏇🏻 Hard to believe but the NFL regular season is only 3 weeks away
