⭐️ Rising Stars in the Risen Star ⭐️
Real Writing on Racing 💯
This weekends stop on the Kentucky Derby Trail is in New Orleans where the venerable old Fair Grounds hosts a slew of intriguing prospects, all looking to survive and advance on the way to Louisville. The 2024 Risen Star (Gr II) looks to be a strong version as its placement on the calendar six weeks prior to the final round of preps has fit well with the schedule of many of the big players. It’s supertrainer galore with Pletcher, Cox, Asmussen, Brown and Mott represented as well as usual midwestern suspects McPeek, Desormeaux, and Stewart and a couple of Derby trail novices in Beckman and Foster. The FG undercards are typically solid and this Saturdays fits that bill. Particularly intriguing for us is the 3rd race of the day, an allowance for 3yo’s going 1 1/16 with graded stakes placed Nash and Moonlight taking on impressive Aqueduct maiden breaker Tuscan Sky. We will also discuss that race and the Rachel Alexandra (Gr II) for 3yo fillies below.
🌟 Frances J Caron talks about Giant’s Causeway sons dominating last weekends stakes action Here.
🇸🇦 Alan Carasso of TDN has the latest news on next weeks Saudi Cup card Here.
🇯🇵 Japanese Breeders Cup Classic qualifying race takes place Sunday at Tokyo Racecourse which you can read about Here. There are also a slew of live Japanese runners in Saudi Arabia and next month in Dubai to keep an eye on. The Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup are firmly on the Japanese horseman’s radar.
🇯🇵 Speaking of which, click HERE to read about this weekends Kentucky Derby prep from Tokyo.
⏰ Jessica Tugwell does a nice job on this profile of the excellent young stallion Not This Time
💙 There are still some great stories out there. This one is one of them.
Fair Grounds Allowance (race 3) $65,000 NW1x 3yo 1 1/16
As we touched on earlier, this allowance race has the potential to be as influential moving forward as many of the preps that have been run. Tuscan Sky debuted at the Big A on January 13th in the first race, a MSW going 6 furlongs. Breaking from post 3, the son of sophomore stallion Vino Rosso was hustled out of the gate by Manny Franco to engage with 4-5 favorite Have You Heard for the early lead. After battling for a 1/4 mile, Tuscan Sky appeared to be green while backing out of the speed duel with Franco shifting him to an outside path on the turn. With a clear run now, he changed leads soon after straightening away and about mid-stretch hit the front, drawing away while getting the last 1/8 in 12.06 over the muddy, sealed track. The 1/2 brother to graded stakes winning turf sprinter, Private Creed, Tuscan Sky is by Vino Rossi who figures to be a strong stamina influence. He earned an 89 Beyer and 7 TG fig for his effort and trainer Pletcher seems to be considering the Louisiana Derby for his next start depending if he passes this test. Nash was a disappointment as the beaten favorite in both the Gun Runner and Lecomte (Gr III) earlier in the meet. The Medaglia D’oro colt didn’t run poorly when 3rd and 2nd in those two stakes earning TG figs of 7 in both. Yet Brad Cox dials him back here and I’d bet he was hoping for bit of a softer spot but a move forward makes him the horse to beat. Cox also starts Ethan Energy, an erratic Uncle Mo colt who has one good race sandwiched by two dull tries.
Rachel Alexandra (Gr II) $300,000 3yo fillies 1 1/16 (50 KO points)
Tarifa - Godolphin homebred by Bernardini prevailed in hard fought allowance on the undercard of the Lecomte. Her final time of 1:43.1 for the 1 mile and 70 yard race was a tick faster than the Silverbulletday stakes for 3yo fillies later in the day. Figures to lay close as the field has a bit of a murky pace scenario, gets Prat and improvement off of the 8 TG she ran last time puts her directly in the mix at a decent price for a Cox runner.
Pennick - Hard Spun filly has taken an unusual route to land here. She debuted way back in May sprinting on the synthetic at Woodbine for Keven Attard then didn’t make her next start for 251 days when winning an off the turf allowance at FG going 5 1/2 furlongs in the mud, just 22 days ago. Both her starts were visually impressive and she ran solid figs in both (14 TG on Tapeta in May is good and 6 last out was better). Assume that she will try to take these wire to wire under the underrated Loveberry for trainer Gary Scherer, both having solid meets. Her pedigree is a bit shaky for the stretch out as her 7 siblings to have raced have had meager success going two turns. That said, you’ll have 8 dirt races prior to assess how speed and the inside of the track is doing before you need to make any decisions.
Perfect Shot - Filly by Gun Runner sat a perfect trip in the Silverbulletday and managed to be second but was no match for West Omaha. Took a step back figutewise going from a pair of 9.75 TG’s to a 12.5 which isn’t ideal but I’d expect a move forward here yet she is going to have to run a lifetime top to get in the mix and I’m not confident of that happening.
Intricate - Another Gun Runner filly, she impressed last fall in Kentucky, cruising through a maiden win before drawing away late in the Golden Rod (Gr II), albeit with an absolute perfect setup/trip in that. She is running similar figures/pattern as Life Talk did going into the Suncoast Stakes last weekend where she bombed at 2-5, which has little bearing outside of being a cautionary tale about taking a short price on a filly who isn’t ‘just plain faster’ than everyone else. The Brendan Walsh trainee won’t be 2-5 and he does solid work with these types as evidenced by Pretty Mischievous last season but I’m wary here.
Alpine Princess - Won what appears to be a key race last out in the Untappable (West Omaha & Band of Gold both exited to win stakes next start) 56 days ago. She did get an easy lead and set a measured pace, reserving enough gas in the tank to remain clear in the stretch. Her TG figs are soft with the 10 she ran last time being her 3rd and I’m wondering if Geroux doesn’t send hard going into the first turn if she might wind up losing ground both turns.
V V’s Dream - Clearly the fastest filly in terms of figures here, though her numbers have been in retreat since her huge Pocahontas (Gr III) back in September at CD where she got a 3 TG. She didn’t do much running when wide in the slop in her last back in October and McPeek wisely gave her some time. Has sharp work in her holster for this (59.3 on Feb 3) but I’m skeptical about progeny of Mitole stretching out, though the only stakes winner by the sire at two turns is also trained by McPeek. He is a difficult trainer to have a great feel for when his horses will fire or not, this filly is a good example of why.
West Omaha - Homebred West Coast filly has done nothing but progress since her debut sprinting at CD in September. She didn’t have much punch late in the Untappable two back when she was 2nd but was very good last out when crushing the Silverbulletday field by 5, first time Luis Saez climbed aboard. Should get a similar scenario to that race here as the pace should be at least par for these and though she figures to lose some ground on the turns, another forward move would make her tough in here. The 9-2 morning line would be a great price but I don’t believe that will be where she lands as I’d guess closer to 2-1.
Risen Star (Gr II) $400,000 3yo 1 1/8 (50 KYD points)
Tizzy Indy - Just too slow
Awesome Ruta - Also seems too slow to compete in this spot
Honor Marie - Bargain buy Honor Code colt surprised the KY Jockey Club (Gr II) field with a strong rally from the back of the pack Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill. The speed seems to be coming from the outside posts so for this guys sake, a lively pace from those entrants hustling into the first turn could be in store. He progressed rapidly last fall and with 84 days off since his last, he is eligible to move up again with the added distance.
Sierra Leone - A typical Chad Brown Derby trail colt, talented but lightly raced which hasn’t been a formula for success. It’s hard to know how to digest the expensive son of Gun Runner’s last race. It came on a muddy Aqueduct track that seemed to be favoring inside speed, yet he was able to put in a huge run while far back and wide. Yes he did bear in and seem to hang late but it’s hard to hold that against him. The figure was solid (4.75 TG) but I expected it to be a little faster considering his ground loss. Brown adds blinkers, perhaps in hopes of getting Sierra Leone to get involved a bit earlier as he lagged in both starts, but he is 0-14 in graded stakes with that equipment change. Also his horses have been uncharacteristically ordinary the last 3 months, his 14% win percentage and 39% ITM is far below his usual standard and 90 days is a decent sample size. Deep closers have won the Kentucky Derby the past two years so perhaps just earning points is a step towards the ultimate goal but it’s difficult to take a short price on him here.
Moonlight - Audible colt cross-entered in the earlier allowance race we discussed but expected to start here. Debuted with narrow defeat on the turf at Saratoga and returned to cruise in an off the grass MSW in September at the Big A earning a sharp 5 TG. Pletcher shipped to CD for the Street Sense (Gr III) where he ran evenly yet grabbed the runner-up spot behind Liberal Arts and regressing a touch to a 7 TG. Back to Aqueduct he went to give the Remsen (Gr II) a try, checking in a well beaten 4th over the muddy track after a slow break put him near the back of the pack early. Once again his figures regressed, this time to a 9.5 TG and he enters this as a bit of a mystery. Has he regressed because that maiden race was too fast, too soon or did he not love the off tracks or maybe Pletcher was right in trying grass in the first place? Interesting choice of Flo Go to pilot as Brad Cox chief pilot, it’s likely a one time deal. If I had to bet, I’d guess that he won’t do much running here and his next start will be in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Gr III) at Turfway or the Transylvania (Gr III) at Keeneland.
Real Men Violin - It took a while for him to develop but he was moving in the right direction at the end of last year when he finished off his season with a solid 2nd in the KY Jockey Club (Gr II) behind Honor Marie. Been working well and the McPeek/Brian Hernandez combo has been on fire lately. IMO much more likely to be on the board than in the winners circle but merits a long look.
Hall of Fame - Looked like he was headed directly to the actual Hall of Fame on Union Avenue on Saratoga when goring a MSW group on the Lecomte undercard. Son of Gun Runner clearly appreciated the stretch out in distance, should be laying close if not on the lead (depending on what his stablemate Track Phantom does). His TG of 5 fits right in with the best here though he does lose Lasix and Joel Rosario who is riding the other Asmussen runner. He can win, he can bomb, he can be somewhere in the middle…I don’t really don’t have else to add.
Catching Freedom - Has the look of a talented but green colt who hasn’t really figured out how to focus on the task at hand. Made a nice run in the Smarty Jones on New Years Day, splitting horses on the turn before being roused to circle the leaders at the top of the stretch, did a lot of looking around before finally powering away late. The winner and runner up in the Southwest (Gr III) were left in his wake that day, giving credence that this Constitution colt might be closer to the top of trainer Brad Cox’s long list of Derby contenders than he is being given credit for. Has a very good TG pattern and gets the services of Luis Saez, always a good thing. His 1/2 brother Bishops Bay got beat a head last May in the 9 furlong Peter Pan (Gr III) by eventual 3yo champion Arcangelo and his dam was a stakes winner at the same distance, added ground should not be an issue. At a reasonable price, he very well may be the play.
Cardinale - Speightstown colt sheds blinkers after narrow defeat at the hands of Sam Davis (Gr III) flop Command Performance in a GP allowance. His only other race was beating a dreadful field in a slow MSW at GP back in November in his debut. Hard to figure what trip will work for him here and with his pedigree, one turn races will probably wind up as better options.
Resilience - Into Mischief colt broke his maiden in start 4 for the Hall of Fame team of Bill Mott and Johnny V. Caught two stakes winners in his first start at the end of Saratoga (Locked and Drum Roll Please) but finished ahead of Track Phantom in start 2 at Aqueduct when he was second to Stronghold, who went on to be 2nd in two graded stakes on the west coast after that. Got way behind in start 3 at CD before rallying to be 3rd behind the soon to be twice stakes placed Nash. The form from his win last out at GP on Jan 1 has held up and his figures have been solid (3 consecutive 7.5 TG) though Into Mischiefs can be hit or miss at 9 furlongs and the post does him no favors. If he drew a better post, I’d be more bullish on his chances here but he does look to be a solid prospect moving forward.
Track Phantom - Quality Road colt is the closest thing we have to a Kentucky Derby frontrunner as he comes into this on a three race winning streak including scores in the Gun Runner and Lecomte (Gr III) over this surface, his TG’s are good while leaving some room for further development, he has good early speed and his stamina hasn’t been tested as of yet. The post seems like it will force Team Asmussen’s hand here as Rosario is likely to be committed to shoot for the lead from the start or risk getting hung wide in the first turn. One scenario that isn’t impossible, is two Asmussen horses hook up on the lead again, similar to what happened in the Southwest, which would be a potential disaster. Of course these days it’s also not impossible to see everyone concede the lead to this guy so who knows? The pace scenario in this race will dictate the chances of quite a few that need it to be heated or those that need the opposite. If I had to guess I’d say that Track Phantom will make his way to the front but it’s hard to feel super confident about that.
Bee Dancer - There are few tasks tougher in racing than going from a 6 furlong maiden win directly to a 9 furlong graded stakes. The post and pace scenario make this Bee Jersey colt’s hill even steeper and it feels like this is going to be a wasted race.
