Return to the Land

Real Writing on Racing 💯

It’s rare when we look to pilfer anything from the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers but today we have swiped one of their recent catchphrases “Welcome to The Land”. However for our purposes “The Land” isn’t Cleveland, it’s Keene-Land! Most normal people associate springtime with temperatures warming, blooming flowers and greener trees. For racing people spring is officially on when Keeneland kicks off its signature 15 day meet! This year it’s especially pertinent with the winter meets not quite as strong as we are used to, partly because of grass growing difficulties. Alas we made it to April, Masters weekend is here, Major League Baseball has kicked off, Kentucky Derby prep season is winding down and Racing Secretary Ben Hoffman has put together a pair of spectacular cards to lift the curtain on the 2023 Keeneland Spring Meet!

We will be covering the Keeneland Meet from afar (sadly) but like our Saratoga coverage, we plan on writing a lot, previewing all the stakes races (except turf sprints) and reviewing the previous days action. We will also be posting a Keeneland ‘bet of the day’ video by our guy, co-host on the Going in Circles Big Monday show, Barry Spears, which will be exclusively found here and on our YouTube channel. You can subscribe to both for free with no strings attached

As always we welcome your comments and input, please try to keep it civil and not get us sued, we’d rather spend our cash on the $3 All Turf Pick 3 (just a great wager, props to Jim Goodman) than attorney fees!

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👶🏼 An awesome card to kick off Keeneland starts out with the traditional baby race going 4.5 out of the Headley Course. Obviously this is strictly a guessing game and I’m sure Bledsoe who is a gelding that’s trained, owned, bred and the stallion owned by Wesley Ward will take plenty of action but check out Callin My Name who has already competed in a race (of sorts) as he won an Aiken Trial on March 18 in South Carolina, going 2 furlongs from the gate in 21.2. Not much info can be found as these aren’t “official” races but his recorded time was far faster than anything else that ran that day. The race is also the first race for those playing metaverse horse racing fantasy game Game of Silks as their inaugural season gets underway!

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💰 The $3 All-Turf Pick 3 starts off in race 6 with classy but rarely seen filly, Kaufymaker, the odds on chalk to start the sequence. I’m sure a lot of singling will happen which will drive price skyward if she isn’t able to get the job done off another long layoff (Linguistic will be on our tickets). The middle leg is Transylvania (see below) an extremely competitive event and the final leg is the 10th, a 9 furlong maiden with a field of 12 horses coming out of 12 different races, a couple of live long shots from Oldsmar and an eminently beatable morning line favorite.

Lafayette Stakes (Listed) $400,000 3yo 7 furlongs

1. Gulfport - rough spot to return to the races as this is the toughest field of 3yo sprinters assembled this year (amazingly enough this isn’t a graded race). That said this son of Uncle Mo is fast and though he didn’t progress as the distances got longer last year as a 2yo, he didn’t regress plus he does have serious speed. The rail draw isn’t ideal and new rider Gafflione will probably send and try to keep the other potential speed horses from coming over on him. I’d be wary of leaning on him too much but he can win.

2. Lugan Knight - won the Jerome over Arctic Arrogance, who is in tomorrow’s Wood Memorial, before getting lost in a bizarrely run Gotham (Gr III) where he was shuffled back in a bulky field, never found a comfortable position over the sloppy track and just didn’t fire. New rider Saez should be able to find a better spot in here with the favorites mostly confirmed speed types and his ability to sit and pounce gives him a fighting chance.

3. Hejazi - I didn’t like his last race in the San Felipe (Gr II), he seemed to be leaning out for a great deal of the race before drifting while tiring in the stretch. Returns to the Baffert barn and switches to Johnny V but the 8-5 morning line seems aggressive and he might wind up in between horses or behind them which is not a trip that he shown he can handle. Baffert is always dangerous shipping East but this one won’t be on my tickets.

4. Determinedly - Casse tried to get him on track in a few Kentucky Derby prep races but when he stopped to a walk after setting the early pace in the Risen Star (Gr II) in his latest, those Derby dreams were dashed. I don’t think he is gonna win this but Casse is pretty good going route to sprint (19% in a 1292 race sample) and of the 15 Prat has ridden for him, only 1 got the job done but 8 were in the money. Casse is ice cold (7% over the last 90 days and 17-1-0-2 last week) and Keeneland is a hard place to get live but at a long price (I’d bet he goes off twice his 5-1 ML) he could sneak on the board if we get a speed duel in front of him.

5. Corona Bolt - The one to beat from our view. Toss the no show versus Arabian Knight, going long in the slop in the Southwest (Gr III) and he is coming into this undefeated in three sprint starts. Nicely drawn outside of the other contenders, Flo Go can survey the scene and decide where he wants to be which is his main advantage over Gulfport.

6. Freezing Point - the good news for this guy is Hoosier Indianapolis opens April 17. The bad news is it’s not April 17 yet.

7. Hurricane J - one of the toughest conundrums in racing is when your horse is good enough to win first time out, comes back and repeats against winners….but they aren’t all that fast and without major progression you don’t have a lot of non-claiming or non-stakes options available. This colt did win over the course and his last two (which have been ugly) were the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a synthetic track race but it’s a stretch to get him in the mix here.

Transylvania Stakes (Gr III) $400,000 3yo 8.5 furlongs turf

1. Freedom Trail - one of the unique features of good turf horses is how consistent they are which is just a general observation not unique to this horse. He stormed onto the Baqueduct grass scene winning his first two including the Awad Stakes (Awad was way better than Pennine Ridge NYRA officials!!!). Interestingly they tried the dirt at Churchill and got that Derby fever right out of their systems as his 8th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr II) didn’t inspire. His return to the grass on the undercard of the Tampa Bay Derby was a dud as Irad let him wander too far back and though he did rally belatedly, he was no threat to turf monster Talk of the Nation. Adds Dettori here and if the pace gets heated, he might be able an interesting bomb to watch..

2. Webslinger - the real power in the south Florida turf division was in the maiden and allowance ranks not the stakes program. This gelding has been solid since his grass debut, never finishing worse than second outside of the BC Juvy turf where he just got lost at the back of the back and never recovered. He is one of about six in here that all run similar numbers but haven’t shown much progression yet and as he is one of the shorter priced options, I’d look elsewhere.

3. Andthewinneris - won the Bourbon (Gr III) over this course by coming from the clouds, taking advantage of a super hot early pace that doesn’t seem likely to occur here. I’m willing to toss his latest at the FG where he found trouble more than once and on his best he is very competitive. Yet his preferred running style often puts him at a disadvantage.

4. Wonderful Justice (GB) - lightly raced FG shipper managed to overcome trouble in both winning starts, though some of that trouble was self-inflicted. Trainer has absurdly good Kentucky numbers though to be honest I don’t trust the FG turf figs from this winter with the bizarre way races were run, Wonderful Justices’ seem light for this spot.

5. Rarified Flair - if this race is moved to Turfway’s synthetic surface…he is the one to beat. If it stays at Keeneland…forget he is there.

6. Mi Hermano Ramon - were words often uttered by baseball great Pedro Martinez when he referred to his brother, not great but still very good pitcher Ramon. What does that have to do with this California shipper? Nothing but I’m not able find a lot to say about a horse coming out of a fair effort going 6.5 furlongs down the hill at Santa Anita, stretching out and moving up in class at Keeneland.

7. Mo Stash - ran great when runner up to ‘star in the making’, Talk of the Nation in the Columbia on Tampa Bay Derby day. Paired his TG 7 when runner up in last fall’s Indian Summer over this course for a trainer that generally doesn’t do well off of layoffs. Has tactical speed and Saez should be able to find a good spot for him and a repeat of his last makes him a big player.

8. Candidate - another that has good tactical speed though Gafflione chose to rate last time when second to Major Dude, who returned to be second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Gr III). Speed figs have improved, he may be overlooked here and new jockey Rosario usually does far better at Keeneland than he does in Florida. Another contender (at 10-1 ML) in a super tough race

9. Nagirroc - yet another that has run nothing but good races including being 3rd in the BC Juvy Turf over this track last fall. Will need to get a little good fortune from an outside post but it wouldn’t be a shocker if he got the job done.

10. Movisitor - trainer Ed Vaughn has a perfect record at Keeneland of 20-0-0-0. Look for that skein to continue here

11. Carl Spackler (Ire) - the ‘real Carl Sparkler’ was the groundskeeper in classic movie Caddyshack who blew up the golf course trying to get rid of gophers (is it possible he is doing turf maintenance consulting for various American racetracks???). The equine version has run two huge races over the beleaguered GP turf, losing a narrow decision to excellent Far Bridge first time out before crushing maidens by close to 9 lengths. New rider Gafflione has to workout a trip from the outside but obviously with any type of decent trip he will be a problem in here.

12. Dude N Colorado - “attention Transylvania riders…attention Transylvania riders…we are issuing a red light special alert 🚨 for this race! Irad has a speed horse from post 12…he WILL be coming over on you from the outside, repeat…he WILL be coming over on you from the outside.” The Dude doesn’t appear good enough to beat these though, even if he gets to the lead it figures to be contested but he may cause things to be interesting heading into the first turn.

Ashland Stakes (Gr I) $600,000 3yo fillies 8.5 furlongs dirt

1. Pride of the Nile - toss her last as it was a nightmare from hitting the gate to being checked hard going into the first turn. Before that she ran well against the top 3yo filly on the west coast, Faiza, pairing 9 TG figs. She seems to be a few notches below the best here and her performance shipping East should give us a good measuring stick to gauge the strength of the Southern California three year old filly division.

2. Wonder Wheel - Probably should have won the Suncoast Stakes when she was narrowly beaten by a wire to wire winner. Gafflione left a very good rail, drifting wide to engage with who he logically thought would be his main competition, the wide running Julia Shining. Either way her connections seemed to indicate that she wasn’t 100% cranked up for that one but she should be primed for today. One area of concern is that she is still running 7 TG figs, which isn’t necessarily a bad number, but she was running that same fig way back last July. We like to see progression in early season three year olds and perhaps it may come here but at a short price, against a tough group, it seems like looking elsewhere may be prudent.

3. Guns N Graces - improved a great deal in start number 3, after earning some pokey figs in races 1 and 2. However it came in a race with a pace meltdown and though visually the Gun Runner filly was closing strong, she was also passing fillies that were tiring too.

4. Julia Shining - she set horse racing Twitter on fire last fall with her wild debut, dropping back sharply on the backside before being angled to the middle of the track where she circled the field to win going away. Her quirky nature came to haunt her again in the Demoiselle though she did get up to win that race anyway. Her refusal to race inside and accept kickback cost her in the Suncoast as she just had too much to overcome. Pletcher adds blinkers to her repertoire here and it will be interesting to see what effect they have on her running style. Between her and her full sister dual Champion Malathaat (their dam Dreaming of Julia was recently named 2022 Broodmare of the year) they are 5 for 5 over the Keeneland main track. That said the price probably won’t be good enough to hope that the blinkers make a difference but we do respect her immense ability.

5. Punchbowl - her maiden win on February 11 at Oaklawn was the best performance of any three year old filly in 2023 in the view of the Going in Circles Digest. The runner up that day, Unsung Melody, came back to break her maiden next time out by almost 2 lengths. Third place finisher, Sacred Wish, broke her maiden by 4 in her subsequent start, was privately purchased by trainer George Weaver and finished second in last Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr II). Punchbowl followed up that huge initial effort with an easy score over allowance foes, showing a new dimension by going to the lead, setting a strong while pressured pace and drawing away late (TG 5.5). With little speed signed on here, I’d expect Prat to get her to the lead and dictate the terms from there. She is coming off of lasix for the first time but Cox has solid numbers in that category. In the Kentucky Oaks Futures we have wagers on one filly, this one and expect her to be undefeated going into May 5.

6. Defining Purpose - solid filly who consistently runs TG 8 which doesn’t land her too far behind Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining. In the lead up to the race on TVG it’s currently 2-5 odds that she barely gets mentioned but improvement and a clear trip might allow her to sneak onto the board at a price

7. Effortlesslyelgant - Norm Casse has been catching lightning in a bottle all year (see Fair Ground Oaks) but the Ashland (Gr I) is a tough task for this filly, especially drawn outside on 19 days rest. I don’t like her much in this spot but spellcheck likes her even less lol.