Rebel On Ice?
Real Writing on Racing 💯
February weather in Central Arkansas can be frightful, the forecast for Saturday in Hot Springs calls for rain with a low of 26 chilly degrees and a less than balmy high of 39. The boisterous denizens of the Ozark state (this weekend including racing luminaries Steve Byk and Bobby Neuman) that pack the venerable old grandstand on weekend’s will need to be dressed in layers as they face the damp, harsh conditions. It certainly hasn’t been chamber of commerce-ish this week though it is an improvement on what Oaklawn dealt with twelve months ago when a rare blizzard threw their entire racing schedule into a tizzy when they lost two entire weekends of racing.
The weather, regardless of how substandard it is on Saturday, doesn’t hide the fact that the field for this years edition of the Rebel (Gr. II) is quite mediocre. Obviously much of the talk about this years crop of three year old Triple Crown hopefuls has centered on Bob Baffert’s crew and the still unanswered questions of what their Kentucky Derby (and potentially Belmont) status will be going forward. It’s our feeling that the strong emotions stemming from that unusual situation has partially deflected the cold, harsh reality that this doesn’t appear to be a particularly highly rated group of three year old colts. Last years juvenile champion Corniche remains in equine witness protection at WinStar Training Center in Lexington which is odd spot to “prepare” for the Kentucky Derby. For a high-profile two year old sales purchase that turned out to actually be worth his $1.5 million dollar price tag as an unbeaten grade 1 winning two year old champion, there isn’t much buzz about the Quality Road colt being curiously absent from the Derby trail. Perhaps the fact that the horses exiting the Juvenile have been running so poorly has something to do with it but it’s almost as though he is already gone. Jack Christopher, the east coast’s best two year old of 2021, being a bit slow to come to hand as a three year old after surgery following his late scratch from the Breeders Cup has also taken away another big name from the preps. While there have been some notable performances thus far, none have really grabbed the fascination of the racing world as there isn’t a clear cut favorite among the bunch. It’s difficult to imagine that the results of the Rebel will do much to change that.
Rebel Stakes 3yo $1000000 Gr. II 1 1/16 dirt OP
Kavod - is a throwback type of horse making start number 12 in the Rebel. Claimed by Hartman three starts back out of a winning effort for $50k, he promptly rewarded his new connections with a win in the inaugural edition of the Advent stakes over this surface, but he has shown in two subsequent starts that he is about 4-5 lengths short of the better three year old stakes company in Arkansas. He does has some early speed and from the rail under regular rider Arrieta should be leading or stationed just off the early leaders. Handles a wet track but isn’t moving up on one.
Newgrange - undefeated colt is a counter to the argument that Violence isn’t the answer as that stallion seems like he has a runner here. Broke his maiden sprinting late November at Del Mar and has reeled off consecutive grade III wins in the Swaps at Santa Anita and the Southwest over the dirt oval at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Has tactical speed if he needs it, has won both on and off the lead which is a good weapon for jock Velazquez to have. Already beat several of these last out, is the fastest horse in the race (TG 3) and with Baffert hitting at 41% at OP and 42% over the last three months looms a short priced favorite to swallow up 50 more Derby points into the banned trainer black hole. Likeliest winner but sure to be over bet.
Cairama - hasn’t had a lot of success since breaking his maiden at Belmont in September when sprinting. Last out got off to sluggish beginning behind sizzling pace in the Smarty Jones, passing some tired ones late. To be a factor would seem to need a much faster pace then is likely to get here
Un Ojo - New York bred gelding clunked up to be second in glacially slow Withers at Aqueduct earlier this month. Switches to ice cold trainer Courville who is 0-42 over the last three months. Hard to recommend
Texas Red Hot - If you are ever in a situation where you are being asked to play golf for money against trainer Randy Morse….just say no as he is almost assuredly going to beat you. Similar sentiments exist if you are asked to bet his horse in the Rebel. Just say no.
Stellar Tap - would be an excellent name for a old school-style pub but this gray Tapit colt hasn’t run remotely close to a number that would make him competitive here.
Ben Diesel - broke his maiden in impressive fashion at Churchill on Halloween but hasn’t really been able to build on that performance as he has lost ground in the stretch in his next three starts. Did change up tactics in the Southwest, stalking the pacesetters along the inside, loomed mid-stretch but couldn’t find the needed kick the last eighth.
Chasing Time - from the same trainer and sire that brought you Epicenter, the easy winner of last weeks Risen Star, Asmussen and Not this Time. He makes his stakes debut here after crushing an allowance group in his first start around two turns over the Oaklawn Park surface mid- January. Ran a new top in that race (4 TG) that puts him squarely in the mix here if he can replicate it. Loses Rosario to the Middle East and picks up Gafflione who interestingly will be his sixth different jockey in his 6th start which is rare for a horse with 2 wins and 2 second place efforts in 5 starts. The tough thing is figuring out the tactics that Gafflione will use here as with Kavod sending from post 1 he will need to hustle to get Chasing Time in a forwardly placed stalking position as that’s the same spot that Newgrange and Johnny Velazquez are likely to covet. Loses lasix and might be a tad bit shorter priced than should be considering the millions and millions of owners that he has. Interesting call here.
Barber Road - rallied boldly in the stretch of the Southwest to grab the runner-up spot after also being second in the Smarty Jones. Is a logical contender with good speed figures (4.5 TG last) that have improved steadily. Switches back to Gutierrez for trainer Ortiz who has been on fire (16-6-3-1) over the last 14 days according to BRIS. Biggest issue figures to be a potential lack of pace and traffic which are usually the chief concerns for horses with his running style.
Ethereal Road - broke his maiden last time out for Lukas rallying from far off the lead after hesitating at the start. Quality Road colt doesn’t have any early speed and hasn’t shown the ability to run numbers nearly fast enough to contend here. Would need a complete pace meltdown to get a piece and it’s difficult to see a scenario where that occurs.
Dash Attack - is a nice horse who greatly benefitted from a rapid paced race falling apart in the Smarty Jones in his second start after scoring first time out going a mile in early December. Was dull when last seen in the Southwest and drawing the outside doesn’t help. Does handle an off track and has a couple of rapid works since his last race but it’s hard to envision a trip that works well here.
Barry “Sniper” Spears selection - Stellar Tap
🚨Bonus Race:
Honeybee Stakes 3yo F $300000 Gr III 1 1/16 dirt OP
Optionality - consistent Gun Runner filly draws the rail here in a compact but excellent field of six. Doesn’t appear that she was that well regarded by the barn earlier in her career when she debuted in August at Indiana Grand and needed four outings there before she finally found the winners circle. She then headed to the Southwest division of Asmussen incorporated romping in two consecutive stakes at Zia Park and Remington Park before trying the big leagues last out at Oaklawn in the Martha Washington where she was no match for the prohibitive favorite in this spot, Secret Oath. Was unchallenged on the lead through moderate fractions and there figures to be more pace in this spot. Had improved TG figures in 5 consecutive races before finally regressing last out. Switches to Gafflione but this is a tough spot and she appears underlaid at her morning line of 7/2.
Yuugiri - Shackleford homebred filly makes her three year old debut in a ultra competitive field for Brisset. Cruised home an easy winner in her first start at Churchill in September and followed that up with a distant second place finish to Sandstone in a listed stakes on CD’s future stars card while stretching out to two turns. Added blinkers and ran an excellent second to Dream Lith in the Golden Rod (Gr. II) while on the lead, turning the tables on Sandstone who was third. Has run really good figs (TG 5) for a two year old filly and clearly has a chance here if the race shape works to her favor and she fires her best shot off the layoff. Trainers stats with 90+ day layoffs are pretty ordinary (10% wins and 43% ITM) and she picks up Johnny Velazquez after having been ridden by Gafflione in all her previous starts.
Secret Oath - Lukas debuted this Arrogate homebred filly at a mile last Fall where she was a distant third to Sandstone before cruising to break her maiden at Churchill when stretched out to 1 1/16 on Halloween. She chased Yuugiri in the Golden Rod (Gr. II) before coming up empty and fading to fifth. Shipped to Oaklawn she destroyed an allowance field on New Year’s Eve winning by 8 and maintained that form when blowing away the Martha Washington under wraps by seven. She earned a big time figure (TG 1.5) for that effort which is very fast for three year old of either sex this early in the year. While she does figure to regress off of that effort, it was so good that she still may be fast enough to win anyway and the race dynamics seem to be set to play in her favor. This is a tough field and I will be playing against her but won’t be shocked if she wins though the price is likely to be paltry versus what her actual odds of winning are.
Ice Orchard - In most seasons a filly like this Super Saver homebred for Shortleaf Stables would have an really nice shot of getting in the mix in the Honeybee. She has run well in all three starts, improving to record a nice figure (TG 9) when breaking her maiden at the distance over the same surface for trainer Ortiz just two weeks ago. However there are some exceptionally fast fillies in this group but perhaps with her recent sharp form she can jump up once again and grab some black type in the show spot if a crazy speed duel occurs. I applaud the connections for taking a shot back on short rest in a small field, stranger things have happened.
Free Like a Girl - one of her owners is a good friend of mine so I have been following her as she methodically runs well time after time after time. A $5500 yearling purchase, the Louisiana bred filly by the low profile Munnings stallion El Deal has already earned in excess of $340k while recording a record of 11-6-3-2 with 5 stakes wins, 4 against LA bred competition. She has proven to be versatile in her running style as she runs equally as well with a target as she does on the lead. Getting around tight turns on a bullring like Delta hasn’t been an issue and she has also beaten open company stakes fillies at normal sized tracks like FG as well. Obviously this is a huge step up in class for her but she has run some really fast races (TG 3.75 and 4) that give her a fighting chance if she can duplicate them under the spotlight of graded competition. Would be quite a feat for a filly from humble beginnings, for connections that have certainly more than paid their dues to simply hit the board in a race like this. Though increasingly difficult to find, there still are good stories out there in racing.
Red Queen - would be a complete shock if this filly coming out of a pokey maiden 30000 win (and off the claim) had anything to say to the rest of this group.
Barry “Sniper” Spears selection - Optionality
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