Quick takes on a rainy day

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Musings…

• Oaklawn got wiped out by weather last weekend, a February tradition in Hot Springs which was anything but hot following a harsh Midwestern ice storm. The Bayakoa Stakes (Gr. III) (named after the great Argentinian mare trained by Ron McAnally) which was postponed this last weekend has been moved to this coming Saturday’s card where it will be the co-feature with the Gr. III Razorback Handicap. Three Thursday cards have been added in March to makeup the three cards lost. As per Rick 🔨 Hammerle the city of Hot Springs and Oaklawn are located within the limits of a national park and chemicals can not be used on the track to prevent it from freezing. I suppose that means we can label the track certified organic real dirt?

• The Holy Bull (Gr III) was run at Gulfstream on Saturday afternoon and despite a relatively easy win by White Abarrio, I’m a bit skeptical about the entire group moving forward. The winner sat a perfect trip behind the unexpected pacesetter Galt who inherited the lead when expected early leader Simplification broke poorly. The fractions were solid enough and when Tyler Gafflione asked the question, White Abarrio had the answer as the colt by the unheralded Tapit stallion Race Day scored his third win in 4 starts. His only losing effort was his last out in the KY Jockey Club at Churchill last fall which was a good 3rd behind non-Baffert horse division leader Smile Happy. That race has already had two Derby prep winners emerge (Call Me Midnight won the LeComte at FG a few weeks back). White Abarrio has a little bit of a Medina Spirt feel to him at this point but I hate the two race as a three year old prep strategy. Fresh horses don’t win Derbies, battle tested ones do. Mo Donegal seemed to be running a bit erratically in the early stages, was roused by Irad Ortiz turning for home, didn’t look as though he was going to fire yet stormed home the final 1/8 to just miss over Simplification who rallied from the back of the pack which is not his preferred running style. Mo Donegal’s race was eerily similar to another Pletcher runner, Known Agenda, who did the same sort of sputtering in the early stages of last years Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa only to rally strongly very late in the game.

• Early Voting dominated a soft group at Aqueduct in the Withers (Gr.III) leading from gate to wire. The Gun Runner colt was a little fractious loading into the gate but charged out of it, taking command of the 1 1/8 race heading into the first turn, set solid fractions over a typically dull winter surface and was never threatened, winning by a little more than 4 lengths in a pokey 1:55.90. The Beyer figure was predictably slow 78 though his Timeform US number (pace is a factor unlike Beyers which don’t consider that) was a decent 109 which was a better figure than White Abarrio earned from TFUS as he got a 106 but a 98 Beyer. The group that Early Voting defeated was certainly under par for a 3 year old Derby prep and it’s hard to recommend any of the others moving forward. As for Early Voting it would seem the Wood would be a logical next step rather than cut back to one turn in the Gotham but he is going to have to run significantly faster to be a real Derby contender.

• Messier had blinkers off and got back to his favorite surface when blitzing a small and suspect group in the Bob Lewis last Sunday at Santa Anita. Pressed from the early stages, new rider Johnny Velazquez dropped the colts head past the quarter pole and he responded burying the field and cruising home a to a 15 length score. Ordinarily this kind of effort would thrust Messier to the top of the Derby contender list yet his name will not even be among the 23 horses listed in this weekends Derby Futures pool #3. Interestingly handle is up 20% in that Futures pool despite the missing Baffert horses. (FYI-I’m heavily invested in Classic Causeway in that pool at prices north of 50-1) Messier earned 103 Beyer and whopping 127 TimeformUS fig.

• Adare Manor looked good dunking in the layup line called the Las Virgenes stakes. At some point these California graded stakes have to attract bigger/better fields or they need to lose their grades. I’m not sure what kind of voodoo formula the Graded stakes committee uses to determine but 9 runners in 2 years is a bad look. The La Brea absolutely should not be a grade 1 anymore especially after the last two runnings have had a distinctly grade 3 feel to them.

• The Sam Davis (Gr. III) Saturday at Tampa is looking like a solid group headed by… Classic Causeway!

• Racing media Twitter meltdown on dark day is a new twist.

• Racing organizations including (especially??) tracks should realize that the customers and participants aren’t as dumb as they believe them to be and that simple explanations and transparency would be beneficial not detrimental. WAY too many people in this industry are WAY too sensitive about potentially upsetting other groups and individuals. That isn’t saying that casting aspersions and pointing fingers is the way to go but when YOU say nothing then YOU lose control of the narrative and that is how dissent breeds.

• Echo Zulu worked. I’m unabashedly a fanboy. Still the best horse of her crop regardless of sex IMO.

• I vow to never leave any location of any handicapping contest I’m ever involved with until I’m hopeless behind and then I’m heading to Waffle House to try suicide by cheap, greasy food.

• Props to my co-host on the Going in Circles Big Monday show, Mr. Barry Spears for his segment on TVG last Sunday afternoon. He would be a massive move up in the handicapping department on most of racing’s TV productions.

• I actually cashed a ticket in El Hombre’s Tour de Force handicapping contest albeit a chalky score and I’m still wallowing in 34th place (out of 61) but sometimes you just gotta hit that first bucket before you get rolling! More likely however, I will continue to wallow.

• Great to see the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation(TRF) add another program to their highly successful Second Chances program.

• The Eclipse awards are to be given out this weekend. For the 13th consecutive year I don’t have any desire to watch whatever show they put on. Hire Ricky Gervais to host and then I’m interested!

Old School video of the week 📽🎞

This weeks Old School Video is the top stallion Gone West when he was still a racehorse dominating the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park