Pretty Super Saturday

Real Writing on Racing💯

The apocalyptic weather reports turned out to be false alarms though morning rains soaked the turf enough that Friday’s grass races other than the Lake George (Gr III) were moved to the main track. 24,236 was the announced paid attendance though it seemed that the rain forecast did keep some away. Today is a new day though and we all hope the promising forecast proves to be accurate both here at the Spa and down by the shore at Monmouth for the Haskell Day card.

🤷🏼‍♂️ We started the day with chaos as the off the turf MSW for 2 year olds going 5.5 on a track labeled good was shaping up to be a fantastic finish with four first time starters spread across the track approaching the wire. Suddenly the lone filly in the field, Same Old Ways who was the second from the rail, just on the outside of ultimate winner Billy The Greek, stumbled badly tossing Jose Ortiz airborne before he hit the ground hard. Watching live on the pan shot it was difficult to determine what caused the issue but with NYRA and other tracks choosing not to show stewards reviews or replays when there is an incident, we are left to guess. Then those of us on-track found out that they DID show the incident on the Fox show which made it appear that Ortiz brother Irad, on second place finisher Foxhole, did cross over in front of Same Old Ways. After a long delay where most of the betting public was basically in the dark, the race was declared official. Jose Ortiz was taken to Albany Med to be checked out and thankfully seems to have escaped without a serious injury as has Same Old Ways. The manner in which these incidents are handled can only be described as weak, communication is almost non-existent and there is no reason that the replay isn’t shown if everyone walked away relatively unscathed. If it can be shown to a national television audience on a major network, we can handle the replay and to be frank, as a collective, virtually no one has much faith in the stewards, surely not blind faith. I don’t know who makes the ultimate call but they should remember close to $2 million dollars was bet on the first race, the replay should available.

🔥 Race 2 went to….who else…Linda Rice and Headland, Jose Lezcano subbing for Jose Ortiz. The race was a high level allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares going 6f, Headland was moving up in class after being haltered from Steve Asmussen for 50k in her last but she stalked the early leader, Top Gun Girl, moved past her rounding the turn and drew off for an easy score. Favored Braganza stumbled leaving the gate and showed little. Longshot Parx shipper Hey Mamaluke was a late vet scratch.

🌟 The Curlin Stakes looked like a race that was desperate for someone to take charge and Junior Alvarado aboard Scotland did just that! Aggressively handled right from the break, Alvarado sent Scotland directly to the front heading towards the first turn and putting the rest of the field in his rear view mirror. Cutting solid fractions for the 9 furlong distance (23.69 x 47.56) the Good Magic colt never looked like he was losing, leaving his two closest pursuers Il Miracolo and 3-5 favorite Blazing Sevens in his wake in the stretch. Trainer Bill Mott sounded optimistic about taking a shot in the Travers afterwards and with the three year old division in flux, why not?

Scotland leads the way in the Curlin Stakes

🕶️ The 8th looked more like a grade 3 than an allowance race with stakes performers Speed Bias, Kuchar and Artorius with some hard knockers like Curbstone, The Reds and Bright Future making up a strong group. Speed Bias, who was sent off as second choice, broke tardily from post two though not as poorly as Curbstone did from the rail. Speed Bias made it to the front going into the first turn and set relatively tepid fractions (24.46 x 48.70 x 1:12.40) for this level with Bright Future chasing in second and Artorius set up three wide to make his move turning for home. Passing the quarter pole, Speed Bias was starting to falter and Bright Future with Javier Castellano subbing for the ailing Jose Ortiz, surged forward to grab the lead and quickly drew away to win with surprising ease. Artorius hung badly, unable to get by Speed Bias for the runner up spot. Nobody else did any running at all.

⛴️ The Lake George (Gr III) is usually won by a Chad Brown trainee (5 in a row now) and the 2023 version was more of the same. Like the Diana last weekend, it was the longest priced of the Brownies, Surge Capacity, that got the job done. Fresh off of a maiden win first out at Monmouth in early June, Surge Capacity’s race was flattered when High Stick returned after being third to break her maiden nicely at Belmont of 4th of July weekend. Joel Rosario maneuvered the homebred daughter of Flintshire to a rail position from the gate and remained glued there till the stretch run where he shot up the inside, first collaring longtime leader Secret Money, then holding off stablemate Tax Implications (GB) to register graded stakes victory number one in race number two.

🚦Pletcher trainee Bourbon Chase held off both Mission Hill and the Stewards to capture the finale. The 3-5 favorite under Irad Ortiz seemed to cause some angst to Joel Rosario on Mission Hill in deep stretch but like most inquiries involving Irad, he did just enough to cause some mayhem but not enough to get the stews to bite. The maiden breaker for Bourbon Chase was win number 4 on the day for Ortiz and number 3 for Pletcher.

📸 Racing at its best is a social game and seeing friends like HRT legend Sean Patrick Nolan (@SPNnation74) and his dad are what makes places like Saratoga special

💣 The flip side of racing is the unrepentant tactics often used by racetrack ownership, the latest piece by Jay Hovdey explores the mess that has been created in Northern California here.

🍔 Big night at Saratoga Casino/Harness Track! First post 6:45

👏🏼 Props are in order for Ramiro Restrepo for his pledge to donate of a share of Mage’s earnings to the Dwoskin Children's Cancer Research Fund at the University of Miami's Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center. Read more about it here.

💰Going in Circles Digest Play of the Day from Barry ‘the Sniper’ Spears

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Haskell Invitational (Gr I) $1,000,000 3yo 9 furlongs

1. Geaux Rocket Ride - immense respect for Mandella who has only shown up in Oceanpost to try the Haskell once and got the job done (2000 Dixie Union). Missed the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies with a minor setback but returned to the races with a good effort in the Affirmed, though he is going to have to improve from that race to beat this caliber of grade 1 horses. Has good tactical ability and may wind up setting up shop off of Arabian Knight’s flank. To me it feels like if a lightly raced horse is going to make the leap here it will be him…and I still don’t know if he can beat Arabian Knight.

2. Awesome Strong - was neither awesome or strong in his 2023 debut and while he appears to be a nice horse, this spot requires better than that

3. Salute the Stars - looked beaten in the Pegasus (mini version) prep for this before a wild late rally nailed the huge favorite and since shelved Kingsbarns on the wire. He was very rank early in that last race, fighting Rosario for almost a half mile before finally settling down and he can’t handicap himself against this caliber of runners. I’m skeptical that he can repeat that effort

4. Mage - the Derby winner’s connections have been transparent about their focus on the Travers since exiting his third place in the Preakness. That said, this spot should provide a good prep for the MidSummer Classic though I’m wary of using him too much here. He may be at a tactical disadvantage if Arabian Knight clears to a reasonable lead and the Preakness hasn’t been flattered by the post-race performances of its cast (Blazing Sevens was very mediocre in the Curlin). Also has to avoid the gate issues that have flared up in the past though if someone heats the pace up, he can finish strong and pick up at least some of the pieces late.

5. Tapit Trice - Luis Saez has his work cut out for him as he usually has to ride this colt the entire trip and while we will have plenty of races to see how the track is playing, Monmouth’s main track is rarely playing for over the top closers like Tapit Trice.

6. Howgreatisnate - Not nearly great enough against this breed of cat, it would be a pretty monstrous upset

7. Extra Anejo - not really all that enamored with him stretching out against this level of competition. Actually thought they’d go the H.Allen Jerkens (Gr I) route though I suppose that he can be re-routed there if this spot doesn’t work out. That said he is talented but this is a tough ask and I’m not sure how he avoids being wide from the outside assuming that Arabian Knight sends

8. Arabian Knight - Dominated in both starts though he rarely makes it into the starting gate. Baffert’s Haskell record is well known and he probably brings the best horse to the big dance once again. I’d imagine that Johnny V is going to send him from post 8 and I’d be surprised if anyone inside were bold enough to try to prevent him from getting to the lead. Baffert has maintained since last fall that this was his best 3 year old and while we may not get to see him too often, he will be very difficult to beat when he does show up.

CCA Oaks (Gr I) $500,000 3yo fillies 9 furlongs

1. Southlawn - got wiped out in the first turn of the KY Oaks, really eliminating any chance that she had. Before that she galloped in the Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr II) easily running by division leader and KY Oaks-Acorn winner Pretty Mischievous. The two questions are has she recovered from that episode in the Oaks and will she be compromised in this potentially slow paced affair?

2. Wet Paint - She was considered the best of the three year old fillies prior to her defeat in the Oaks when she simply got too far behind. Her follow up race at Ellis was one that featured a ludicrously soft pace that made it close to impossible for her to make up the difference. Will there be enough early speed to allow her to effectively use her excellent late kick? I’d be wary of using her at a short price.

3. Sacred Wish - scratched out of the Wilton last Friday for this spot. In my eyes she is dangerous here because she has shown tactical ability and in a race with a questionable pace scenario save for Hoosier Philly, some early foot will be valuable. Her TG pattern is one where you’d have to believe further progression is still coming

4. Gambling Girl - she showed slow but steady progression going into the Kentucky Oaks where the New York bred filly finally put it together and ran her lifetime best. Has had issues leaving the gate enough times where it’s not a coincidence and the lack of early speed is troublesome as is her tendency to bear out in the lane. At close to her 5-2 morning line, I’m going to be pessimistic

5. Hoosier Philly - Edgar Morales should watch Junior Alvarado on Scotland in Friday’s Curlin for hints on how to ride this type of horse on this particular track. If he is aggressive early and seizes control of the race going into the first turn, she will take some beating. She doesn’t have to get a 25 second first quarter like she did at Ellis last out but as the filly with the most natural speed in this group, she should use it. The biggest question that remains to be answered about this Into Mischief filly is a simple one, is she really all that good? She is exiting a win aided by a dawdling pace where she received a lifetime fastest TG of 5.75 which isn’t that good for this class of horse. Her advantage is her speed, if they don’t use it, I don’t see it going well for her.

6. She’s Lookin Lucky - she has been erratic in her short career, occasionally running big races while just as often chasing and fading. Does have some early speed and could actually be the key to the race if Carmouche pressures Hoosier Philly, it could set the table nicely for everyone else. These connections are savvy though and while I’m sure they would love to win, they understand that value of a grade 1 placing and her best shot of that happening might be riding shotgun chasing a slower pace and trying to outlast the closers in the stretch. Last year this group shipped in Kneedeepinsnow to run in the Vanderbilt against overwhelming favorite Jackie’s Warrior. Rather than using his prolific speed from post one, they avoided a speed duel with the huge favorite, had jockey Ricardo Santana ride to try to pick up a big piece of the pie, which earned them a nice $70k check when they ran second. It’s not the exact same scenario but it’s something to keep in mind.

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Today we bring you one of the great Haskell’s - the 1988 showdown between Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold.

🏖️🎪 The deck was stacked for yesterdays poll question seeing as this is a Saratoga-centric newsletter but the place where the turf meets the surf had a respectable showing ⤵️

Today’s question May trend toward those same lines but with Monmouth and Del Mar both having excellent cards today…🏄🏼‍♂️ 🎪 🏖️