Prepping Tepidly 63 Days Before Derby Day
Real Writing on Racing 💯
A trio of Kentucky Derby points races awaits us today ranging from soggy Aqueduct, sunny Gulfstream to the house of chaos, Turfway Park. Tomorrow, a weather sensitive Santa Anita hosts an asterisk laden San Felipe (Gr II) where Scatify and Mc Vay scramble to collect the leftover Kentucky Derby points not kicked into a black hole by the Forbidden Bob Baffert’s fine steeds, including the dynamic Nysos who figures to get a perfect set up once again. Gulfstream has put together a terrific card with a late morning launch point, the Aqueduct adventure will include mud and of course the usual Tampa, FG, OP and Laurel cards to spice up the day as we hit the 9 week from Derby milepost.
🥈 A silver star for the 1/ST racing team in stringing together some its top races using bonus structures and enhanced purses, including an upgrade for the Preakness. It’s always a good idea to tether races together to try to facilitate increased competition and foster rivalries which are an organic way to promote the sport itself, the best against the best. However they did this in a clunky manner by using the Preakness as the kick off leg which drastically narrows down the number of horses eligible (only 3yo’s) to compete for its main bonus plan surrounding its “premier races” including two older horse races, the California Classic and eventually the Pegasus. Any series loses a lot of its oomph when it’s stretched out too long as modern society just doesn’t have a long attention span and when you are putting on three events in completely different parts of the country, it is very difficult to get any real crossover excitement. The fact is that the Preakness is part of a bigger, traditional series that works because the 5 weeks from start to finish keeps racing on the minds of both its followers and the general public. My suggestion to get some unique entries for the Preakness is to look outside the borders, come up with incentive structures for European, Japanese or Middle Eastern horses beyond the Derby points structure. Perhaps any horses that hit the board in designated races (the Saudi Derby? Or sponsor a race at Lingfield?) get a free roll into the Preakness. With a field limited to 14, it’s not like you need to add more than a handful runners to make it more interesting plus increased attention in other wagering markets can only help.
🗽 We are often distracted by petty provincial arguments in this business and forget that racing and its umbrella of related industries produce a huge amount of economic activity for states as this recent report from the American Horse Council demonstrates.
🎪 It’s not Saratoga yet but the boys from the Special are pumping out weekly editions! Click here to check out this weeks!
🏇🏻 If you aren’t reading Sid & Frances… what are you waiting for?
💰 The RCNGhub ‘Play of the Day’ from Barry ‘the Sniper’ Spears is from race 6 at Gulfstream today. Check it out ⤵️
🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Fountain of Youth
🆓 BRIS PP’s for the Derby Preps:
✅ Fountain of Youth from Gulfstream Park
✅ San Vincente from Santa Anita (Sunday)
Davona Dale (Gr II) $200,000 3yo fillies 1 mile (50 KYO points)
Miss Sayely - set the pace in allowance at this distance last out before being dispatched with by the promising Gun Song. Pedigree suggests that sprinting might be a better option, loses Irad, picks up his nemesis Paco and sheds blinks.
Leslie’s Rose - Twenty years ago there is no way that this filly goes off as the post time favorite here but I’d expect her to ultimately be the chalk once the final CAW $ hits the pools as they travel down the backside. Pricey Into Mischief filly has won both her starts after knocking off the aforementioned Gun Song on January 11 over this surface, also going a mile, earning excellent TG of 4.5 after getting a 5.25 in her debut.
Just F Y I - she is consistently good, winning all three of her freshman year starts including the Frizette (Gr I) going this one turn mile distance and holding on to take the Breeders Cup Juvy Fillies (Gr I) to cap off her championship season. She ran TG of 8 in all three races, which points to her having room to improve as a three year old though she hasn’t run figs nearly as fast as Leslie’s Rose. Trainer Mott indicated that she has had a minor setback that cost her a couple works so perhaps she will be a touch shy of her best as he points her toward the ultimate goal of the Kentucky Oaks.
Fiona’s Magic - Trainer Yates has had an uncharacteristic tough Championship meet but this filly, by the Florida based stallion St. Patrick’s Day, has been a bright spot. Exits a good effort when second in the Forward Gal going 7f, earning a 9.5 TG, her third consecutive solid figure. The tricky part in here is that she has shown high early speed but shaking loose enough to get any pace advantage with the presence of speedy Leslie’s Rose makes her task difficult, especially considering she is asked to go an additional furlong.
Whocouldaskformo - cuts back in distance from a runner up effort in the two turn Suncoast Stakes at Tampa 3 weeks ago. She put in a decent effort and got some blacktype but the field wasn’t particularly strong outside of the winner and Life Talk, who bombed at 2-5. She has never run fast enough but figures to get a nice trip with so much speed signed on, an on the board placing looks to be her ceiling and even that isn’t all that likely.
Queen’s Martini - Blasted a group of restricted maidens sprinting at the Spa last July before resurfacing to be second behind Power Squeeze in the Cash Run on New Years Day at GP, before that one took down the Suncoast at Tampa in her subsequent start. Has run good figures in both starts and should get a nice stalking trip under Saez but does need to improve to be a factor here.
New Diamond - Ambitious spot for the daughter of Bee Jersey as she comes out of an allowance where she was well beaten when running 3rd. She just hasn’t run remotely fast enough compared to this group.
Into Champagne - Into Mischief filly broke her maiden first start out of the box at Ellis last June, impressive for a Wilkes runner as his generally take a few starts before they hit their best stride. Returned in early January to get the job done in the Glitter Woman Stakes going 6f over this surface, though it was sloppy that day. Should get a good trip from the outside as she has displayed tactical ability and while she needs to improve to win, merits a long look if you aren’t inclined to want one of the short priced favs.
Fountain of Youth (Gr II) $400,000 3yo’s 1 1/16 (50 KYD points)
Speak Easy - scratched out of Friday allowance race won by Conquest Warrior, comes out of highly rated maiden on the Pegasus day undercard where he showed good speed stalking the well meant Victory Avenue before edging clear late. Race figs came back strong (100 Beyer and 4 TG), his pedigree being by Constitution out of a mare by Harlan’s Holiday suggests the added distance should be fine and with quite a bit of early speed types, Irad should be able to workout a good trip with the benefit of saving ground on the first turn. The morning line of 9-2 seems too high, I’d think he will be more in the 3-1 range. Edit-*With the 2 big scratches, I believe that 7-5 or lower might be his off price and there is a real chance that Irad tries to wire the field.
Le Dom Bro - bargain buy by Mucho Macho Man tries to stretch out once again after bombing in the mud in the Remsen (Gr II) last fall. Perfect trip when second in the Swale last out, tough to see him being a real factor in here.
Victory Avenue - NOW SCRATCHED -Exits Speak Easy maiden race where the NY bred son of Arrogate ran an excellent race first time out, setting rapid fractions before tiring late from those early efforts. Team Mage is following in that one’s successful footsteps with this colt, despite losing Saez to Dornoch, savvy trainer Delgado picks up an excellent replacement in Hall of Famer Johnny Velazquez. Will he go to the lead, try to rate or play it by ear is one of the pieces of the puzzle that is difficult to ascertain at this point but he figures to be forwardly placed nonetheless. No reason to believe that he can’t stretch out to 8.5 furlongs and improvement off of his debut TG of 5.75 puts him directly in the mix here.
Real Macho - rallied late to nail 2-5 Pletcher chalk Born Noble in GP allowance going 1 mile on the Holy Bull undercard. Ran a big TG fig (5.75) in doing so but is more likely to regress than hit that number again.
Dornoch - his 1/2 brother Mage ran a tough trip 4th in last year’s Fountain of Youth (Gr II) on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Gargan is aware of that fact as he has indicated that the son of Good Magic may not be primed for his best in this spot as he looks ahead to the first Saturday in May. This is a bit of a dangerous proposition as the Derby trail attrition list is typically long and getting points when you can is usually the best plan, yet if it works… “to the Victor, the Spoils’”. His gritty Remsen (Gr II) win over current future book fav Sierra Leone shows his talent level is high but again we are wondering about his trip in here with other speed drawn inside, ground loss might be an issue. *In light of the huge late scratches Dornoch now has a much better chance at success today.
Merit - Scratched
Frankie’s Empire - Upset the Swale at a big price shipping in from Parx and first time Yates. He runs solid figs and has a great deal of experience with this being his 8th lifetime start but I’m not sold that he wants two turns.
Locked - NOW SCRATCHED - had an excellent two year old season, winning the Breeders Futurity (Gr I) at Keeneland despite a wide trip and getting shuffled back early before rallying to be third in the BC Juvy (Gr I). Was scheduled to make his sophomore debut at Tampa in the Sam Davis (Gr III) a few weeks back but a minor hiccup rerouted him here. Ran big figs last season and comes into this race as the fastest of the group and that based on 2yo figures. Should be ample pace to set up the Gun Runner colt’s late rally and he looms as the one to beat here though a short stretch finish does work against him a touch.
Dancing Groom - Typically erratic Sano three year old, he doesn’t seem good enough but he wouldn’t be a shock to jump up and run 3rd or 4th here at a huge price.
Gotham (Gr III) $300,000 3yo 1 mile (50 KYD points)
Khanate - Sheds blinkers after fading late in three consecutive tries against winners including being 5th going longer in the Withers (Gr III). Cuts back to the one turn mile here and the signals are mixed at best as owner Calumet is amongst the most aggressive operations in terms of racing longhsots in stakes events. That stance makes reading the tea leaves with their runners more difficult as you aren’t sure if they are being clever with a unheralded entrant sitting on a big race or it’s closer to throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks. This seems like a wall and with all the expected rain, it probably won’t stick.
Maximus Meridius - PA bred by surprise sire Maximus Mischief has been sprinting successfully at Parx for the dangerous Butch Reid. Has a couple nice wins sandwiched around a decent run when third behind subsequent Swale winner and Fountain of Youth entrant Frankie’s Empire. As a speed horse from an inside post in a bulky field, jockey Sanchez will likely be sending directly from the gate, trying to get a forward position down the long backstretch run. However in a race with plenty of early pace types, getting caught up in a rapid early pace battle is a likely outcome unfortunately. It’s not that he “needs the lead”, they probably would rather he not get buried behind horses especially on a potentially muddy track. Tough spot for him.
Deterministic - One of the most impressive Saratoga 2yo performers, he rallied wide after a slow start to capture a solid 7f MSW back in August. The TG of 7.25 he earned is a super figure for a two year old in August and 7 months later it still holds up. Clement is having a strong Aqueduct meeting (14-4-1-3) and is good at bringing horses back ready to fire off a layoff. Has been working at Payson Park for this and though I’m a bit suspect that a Liam’s Map colt out of a mare that was a turf sprinter should be thinking Kentucky Derby, this is a good launch point for his sophomore campaign. I’d be a bit wary today about another slow break as being 12th in the mud at Aqueduct down the backside is a path rarely taken to the winners circle but I’m interested to see him preform.
Facenda - The original voice of NFL Films was John Facenda, known to football fans as “The Voice of God”. In order to make the rarely seen ‘Turf Paradise to Gotham’ move that his namesake is making, this Violence colt may need an assist from God. More likely that he winds up on the Gotham Follies than the winners circle. Click here to see if you recognize that baritone voice.
Deposition - the bad news is that this Constitution colt hasn’t run all that fast. The good news is that he is getting better and is trained by longshot specialist Uriah St. Lewis.
Air Cav - ditto earlier Calumet Farm commentary though this one seems in way too deep and seems more like an Air Ball here.
El Grande O - one criticism that Linda Rice should never hear is that she is afraid of the entry box (insert your own jokes here). NY bred Take Charge Indy colt makes start number 11 here and outside of a clunker in a downpour in the Champagne (Gr I) last fall, he has shown up and run well in all of them. Have an inkling that this distance is probably better than the 9 furlongs of the Withers (Gr III) last out but he hasn’t shown an ability to win from off the pace and there is a lot of speed signed on here. Has handled an off track, has won over the surface and has run good TG figs though hasn’t yet been able to break through a 6 yet, a number he first ran way back in September. The 8-1 morning line feels well meshed with his chances today.
Bergen - Dispatched a pretty ordinary bunch in his local debut, an easy win in the Jimmy Winkfield going 6f in the mud 5 weeks ago. Ran a solid TG fig of 3.75 in doing so and a repeat of that number puts him right in the middle of the top contenders here. Has shown an ability to tract leaders or rally and pass horses in his brief, 3 race career and that versatility gives him an edge over many of his rivals here.
Eliminate - Earned his diploma when adding lasix 3 weeks ago over this strip going 6 1/2. Stretches back out here and jockey Dylan Davis has to make sure that he doesn’t give him too much to do as he appears to be more of a grinder than anything. His TG of 6.25 last out was a big leap forward and I’m skeptical that he has another one coming here.
Just a Touch - Was touted as ‘the fastest horse in the world’ prior to his debut at FG five weeks ago, and that seemed to be the case as he crushed maidens at 1-2 for Team Cox. Justify colt skipped over the slop in New Orleans, earning a whopping 2.5 TG in the process, a repeat of which would make him a tough customer in this spot. Being drawn outside the other primary speed gives Geroux an opportunity to survey the situation and I’m guessing that he will sit in-hand outside down the long backside run before commencing his bid. Not sure that this is a Derby horse, in the good old days if you suggested that a colt that had never even run in a two turn race heading into the final round of preps was pointing to the Derby, Woody Stephens would have run you over with his pony for such a blasphemous thought. Alas these days we now have to sort though talented but still wildly inexperienced colts just 60 days out from the first Saturday in May. Can he win the Gotham? Sure.
Lightline - City of Light colt has made a nice, slow but solid progression from his Indiana debut to running a tough trip 3rd (wide on a heavy, inside favoring track) in the Withers (Gr III). He has a solid foundation but needs to break through soon if he is gonna actually hop onto the Derby trail. There is a real turfy tint to his pedigree and IMO his future is probably going to wind up on the grass.
Slider - Scratched
Capital Idea - The ‘other’ Clement broke his maiden in style five weeks back, slogging through the Ozone Park mud to score by 8 and earning a sharp TG of 2.75 after getting a 10 in his debut a week prior. Obviously handles an off track and is drawn nicely to avoid some of the kickback heading down the backside but the question remains, can he come close to duplicating that number?
🎥 The 1973 Gotham was won by a familiar face