Preparing for Kentucky Derby Preps

Real Writing on Racing 💯

The Road to the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby trail kicks into high gear this weekend with four preps scheduled nationwide, coming on the heels of some needed clarity regarding the never ending CDI vs Bob Baffert saga. With Baffert’s owners not willing to transfer their Derby hopefuls for a third consecutive year, and Churchill predictably, not willing to budge on their stance, a stalemate is upon us. Personally I have grown weary of this fight. I understand Churchill’s position and respect their desire to protect their golden goose and to be frank, if someone kept suing me because of the repercussions of their own actions/responsibility, I don’t believe I’d be quick to welcome them back either. Baffert and company withdrawing their lawsuit a week before the deadline to nominate/transfer control of Derby eligible horses seemed a little too convenient, like “ok we have pushed this about as far as we can go…but we are done now so you should let us back in”. That said this year’s banishment should be enough punishment for Baffert’s transgressions (don’t forget he had a positive test for the exact same medication the prior year in the KY Oaks). Not that the CDI suits are overly concerned about what industry insiders think, but it is a distraction and doesn’t exactly cover the sport, the event or them in a warm fuzzy light as Baffert has won their race six times in the past. Of course I scoff at the idea that Baffert-less Kentucky Derbies deserve an asterisk or scarlet letter, the race is far, far bigger than any individual or horse or their participation. Whoever wins won’t care one iota who wasn’t there, nor will the 150,000 people in attendance or a great majority of the 15+million that will watch on television. You think Lynn Whiting felt like his Derby win in 1992 was tainted because the obvious best horse that year, AP Indy, had to scratch morning of the race? Please stop with that nonsense. It’s bad enough the Baffert acolytes have re-emerged once again like demented cicadas on a annual cycle of crawling out of the soil to preach at everyone who isn’t drinking their particular brand of Kool-Aid. Personally I have no problems with Bob Baffert, I have stated for over a year now that if I had a say, I’d drop the suspension and put it in the past where it belongs. For those with a limited sense of history, there was once a time when Baffert was doing well on the Triple Crown trail and in Classic races with sons of Bationnier and Silver Buck and $17,000 yearlings…he didn’t always get Ferraris. His accomplishments and training feats speak for themselves, yet I shake my head when considering that for many he will one day be remembered a lot more like Manny Ramirez than Mickey Mantle…and it wasn’t all that long ago that you couldn’t say that. The entire sordid tale should have never dragged on this long, both sides have their own culpability, and hopefully this is the final Derby trail that we have to deal with it.

🎙️ Friend of the Digest, Boston sports radio legend, Mike Mutnansky had some strong words in support of the relevance of the actual racing in the horse racing ecosystem in his weekly Substack Mut Stack (about 1/2 way down). Mut has some other gems in there including finding out you can now buy Red Sox tickets in Costco lol!

☕️ Instant Coffee (GIC Digest fav) is working towards his return with a new conditioner reports Mike Welsch in the DRF.

🌧️ Sunday’s Santa Anita card for Sunday has already been postponed due to a forecast expecting heavy rains.

⭐️ Curlin has never been hotter! Read Frances Karon’s recent piece about him here.

🆓 DRF Formulator PP’s for the Southwest Stakes (Gr III) Here.

💵 Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears Going in Circles Digest Play of the Day sponsored by RCNGhub.com (The Southwest Stakes (Gr. III) from Oaklawn Park) ⬇️⬇️

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Holy Bull (Gr III) $250,000 3yo’s 1 1/16 (20 KYD points)

1. Hades - I don’t know if this guy rates as the god of the underworld as his name suggests, but he has shown some versatility in his two starts and he isn’t exactly lined up against a group of Greek Gods, perhaps outside of the headliner. Sire Awesome Slew, who was best as a miler, has been a productive lower tier stallion though mostly getting sprinters so there is a question of the two turns and the state-bred allowance group he beat last time wasn’t stellar. That said, he should be a decent enough price that inclusion on the bottom of exotic wagers isn’t a bad idea.

2. Inveigled - blindly using horses ridden by Irad has paid off quite handsomely in recent weeks at GP, the guy can just flat out ride. This gelding from the first crop of Enticed, has run well in each of his five starts for solid conditioner Cibelli. Has tactical speed, can rate and be placed forwardly, which bodes well for his trip here. There is a large gap between Fierceness and the rest of this group but I believe this guy may prove to be the best of the rest Saturday.

3. Otello - Curlin colt has won both of his races by getting up in the final strides. Luis Saez did an excellent job of maneuvering off the rail and through a seam when he won the Mucho Macho Man on New Years Day. However I’m not yet convinced that he isn’t a Curlin that wants one turn more than two like 2023 Eclipse award winners Cody’s Wish and Elite Power. Now this is more of a hunch than anything but I’m more than willing to try to fade him in this spot as the likely second choice.

4. Dancing Groom - There is no tougher trainer to figure when their horses are going to run a big race than Antonio Sano. This particular son of Vino Rosso adds blinkers off of a dull try at CD after a distant third in the Champagne (Gr I) but as I said, your guess is as good as mine what he does here.

5. No More Time - The son of Not This Time blew the break in the MMM, costing him valuable position, trailing the field by several lengths leaving the mile chute. He wound up 4 wide on the turn moving to the leaders and ultimately wound up tiring from his efforts though he did not ever quit. With better racing luck and a stretch out to two turns, he might be a live longshot to include on your tickets.

6. Domestic Product - Brown charge sheds blinks after not settling in poor Remsen (Gr II) effort. The Practical Joke colt is a tough read here, especially with his trainer struggling at the meet.

7. Fierceness - three lifetime races, two spectacular performances, one clunker. Extremes obviously but son of City of Light’s talent is as immense as his owner is boisterous. Obvious horse to beat likely lays close, if not on the lead and will be very tough at short price if he doesn’t beat himself with gate antics/ rankness like in the Champagne (Gr I). Looking ahead toward the ultimate goal on the first Saturday in May, I do not recall a 2yo ever running as fast as this colt did when winning the Breeders Cup Juvy (-1.5 TG) and while that seems like a positive, the vast majority of recent KY Derby winners improved to run their best race on Derby day.

8. Sea Streak - NJ based sire Sea Wizard (by Uncle Mo) is off to a nice start at stud though his progeny are mostly a mystery at two turn route distances. Figures to lose ground with wide draw and I’d be inclined to fade here

Southwest (Gr III) $800,000 3yo’s 1 1/16 (20 KYD points)

1. Maycocks Bay - dominated an off-the-turf allowance on the front end when adding lasix last out at FG, but that race seems like an outlier based on his complete resume and it’s fadesville for us here.

2. Charleston - Brad Cox offered the chestnut son of Tapiture for sale twice and on try number two, Jinx Fires bit for $75,000. He bombed in his subsequent start over this surface when beaten 20 three weeks ago yet he lands here with blinkers off. Charles Town might be in Charleston’s future if he doesn’t turn it around

3. Magic Grant - if you are searching for a live long shot to use in the Southwest (Gr III), this Good Magic colt may be the one you land on. Has run well in Oklahoma stakes company but was a $300,000 OBS March purchase and should be finishing at the end. His 7 TG when 3rd behind Otto the Conqueror in the Springboard Mile last out puts him in range and continued improvement might make his 30-1 morning line look tempting.

4. Otto the Conqueror - hands down best name on the Triple Crown trail. Has won 3 in a row after getting overhauled late in his debut last summer at Ellis Park by Street Sense (Gr III) winner Liberal Arts. Figures to be forwardly placed if not on the lead here though there are other speedy types including stablemate Carbone. Has run good figures and a move up here off the 50 day layoff is a strong possibility. Not crazy about rider switches to Rosario these days but this guy is a solid contender.

5. Wynstock - ships in to try to steal the points for the Derby banished Baffert. Not a typical BB Derby trail contender as they generally start running fast from the beginning and maintain or inch forward/backward. This NY bred son of young stallion Solomini (also trained by Baffert) didn’t impress much at all until his breakout run in the Los Al Futurity (Gr II), seven weeks back in December. Can he get to the lead or can he win without it are two questions that need to be answered and you will probably be taking it on the chin price wise as the Baffert brand always takes extra money in Arkansas. Respect but wary.

6. Liberal Arts - Robbie Medina has done an excellent job developing this son of the ill-fated Arrogate, culminating in a score in the Street Sense (Gr III) at Churchill in late October. Given a brief freshening after that win, he has been gearing up for this race in Kentucky and wasn’t effected by the 10 day weather-related track closure that the OP based trainers have had to deal with. While he has improved quite a bit since his debut back in May, there appears to be room to get better yet. A fast pace would improve his chances, jock Torres is among OP’s best and at the moment, assuming the track is playing fair, this is our choice here

7. Carbone - two starts, two easy wire to wire wins. Seems to be drawn outside the other early pace types in here though I’d imagine that Asmussen won’t want to see his two hook up early. The 9-2 morning line seems off by quite a ways as I can’t imagine that he will go off higher than 2-1 or thereabouts, especially if runner up last time, Lightline, runs a big one in the Withers (post 3:55 eastern). The question that needs to be answered is can he take a lot of pace pressure and keep running or will they take back or will Santana attempt to clear the field going into the first turn?

8. Common Defense - paired 9 TG in two maiden races and might be ready to move up off of the 21 days rest. Sire Karakontie (Jpn) generally gets higher ceiling grass runners but has had some success on dirt. This guy has found success over the surface and with his race coming right before the weather turned and him coming back on relatively short rest, the delays probably least affected his training out of the OP contingent. Loses Torres to Liberal Arts but replacement Leparoux has done well with McPeek in the past. Has the running style conducive for an on-the-board finish.

9. Linebacker - maiden by Bolt D’Oro has run three solid races but he still needs to improve to even get on the board here. Trainer Blair, who does a good job with mostly moderate stock, adds blinkers after a good effort while stuck on a dead rail on New Years Eve day. I’m guessing we see improvement here and while it may not be enough to win, especially from an outside post, 30-1 or more makes tossing him in palatable.

10. Mystik Dan - the other McPeek chased and faded for the second consecutive time in the Smarty Jones. Drawing an outside post with other speed signed on inside of him complicates matters and I can’t see much positive about his chances in this spot.

11. Just Steel - the son of Justify shows the typical D. Wayne erratic running lines that we have come to expect. His TG’s from start 1: 26.25/9.5/7.75/14.25/15/9.5/2.5/8. In other words, no discernible pattern exists. He ran well enough in the Smarty Jones to be second but from an outside post, a wide trip looms which makes this a tough task. That is sad news for my friend Ben who owns his metaverse rights in the Game of Silks but gets paid when he jumps up and hits the board in real life.

12. Awesome Road - Quality Road colt looked like a future star when breaking his maiden in style in August at Ellis Park. Bombed in un-Cox barn-like fashion in two subsequent starts. Was cross-entered in softer spot at Turfway Friday night but scratched for this. Not sure what the plan is but I shall be passing.

Withers (Gr III) $250,000 3yo’s 1 1/8 (20 KYD Points)

1. Speed Runner - this is the softest of the 4 preps with no one that currently looks like they would be a dangerous contender at this point. This maiden breaker from Team Todd has a win at the distance and the Gun Runner colt figures to be put into the race early by savvy veteran jockey Jose Lezcano. A bump up off his last puts him directly in the mix here.

2. Deposition - when Uriah St. Lewis wins a graded stake, it generally means boxcars payoffs and if this Constitution colt can get the job done, it will be at 50-1 or more…but it’s highly unlikely to occur.

3. Lightline - made a strong, sustained move from the back of the pack while very wide on the second turn when finishing second to wire to wire winner Carbone (entered in Southwest today) in an OP allowance in his latest. Interestingly enough he showed a lot more early foot in his first two races, new jock Franco should be able to place him where he sees fit. Plenty of stamina in the pedigree so the added distance should be fine but needs to improve a bit and also handle the potentially deep AQU surface which makes him a dicey proposition at the 8-5 morning line.

4. El Grande O - the obligatory Linda Rice entry in a winter stakes at the Big A. One thing about her younger horses, they tend not to develop much but rather come out running as two year olds and eventually fade as the races pile up. This Take Charge Indy colt is a typical Rice early season 3yo. He was running the same 9 TG he ran last out when second in the Jerome, back in August when 2nd in the Skidmore. He does have good early speed and figures to set the pace in here, the question is does he get pressure early and does he really want the 9 furlongs? He has a lot of similiarities to Artic Arrogance, a Rice trainee that ran second in this race last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is where this one lands as well.

5. Seminole Chief - Girvin colt ships up from FL after taking down FL stallion stakes race in last. Has to improve to be a factor here but should lay close and get a nice trip though anything less than the morning line of 12-1 is an underlay.

6. Society Man - maiden ran decent when 3rd in Speed Runners maiden win at the distance. Good Magic gelding did get hung out wide on the second turn but never really threatened and is only a player for minor awards here.

7. Mission Beach - last looks better than it might have been as it wasn’t a strong field at all. Trainer Russell wins at high rate generally but only 9% at AQU.

8. Uncle Heavy - not sure I have faith in the TG figs that this PA bred by Social Inclusion earned in starts 1 and 3. Trainer Reid merits respect when shipping but this guy has been having issues at the gate and this group is a step up from his usual rivals, if he blow’s the break and circles 5 wide here, it’s likely not going to end well for him

9. Khanate - looked good when breaking his maiden last fall at Keeneland going 7f but hasn’t really picked his feet up since.

Robert B Lewis (Gr III) $200,000 3yo’s 1 1/16 (20 KYD points)

1. Wine Me Up - has a series of decent efforts with only his terrible BC Juvy the outlier. Not sure that this crop of Cali 3yo’s are very good and he is on the lower tier of those. Hasn’t finished strong in any of his starts and no reason to believe that will change here

2. Ace of Clubs - didn’t do much running in the Los Al Futurity when switched back to the dirt. Can’t see much reason why he can turn the tables here.

3. Better than Gold - unleashed a strong closing kick to beat maidens in his first start around two turns after a non-effort in his sprinting debut. Son of Nyquist figured to be better going longer and he was. He will have to do better in this spot but with natural improvement and a clean trip he should be able to land an on-the-board placing

4. Moonlit Sonata - Malibu Moon colt didn’t have much late kick after breaking from post 1 in the San Vincente (Gr II) but the stretch out here might help. Doesn’t seem to possess much early foot so a super fast pace is likely required in order for him to be at his best and I’m not convinced that he is going to get it

5. Coach Prime - Quality Road colt swung wide on the far turn of the Los Al Futurity when rallying from the back of the five horse pack, but couldn’t muster enough of a rally down the long Orange Country stretch run to threaten the winner seriously. Sheds blinkers, loses Prat to the favorite and new jock Dettori is going to have to find some magic to grind his way to the winners circle. A regular dismount rather than the flying type seems in the cards though if there is to be Bob on Bob crime, I’d lean towards it being Coach Prime picking off the chalk.

6. Nysos - most of the CDI/Baffert ban angst revolves around this guy who has destroyed the field in both his races. They were both sprints and the son of Nyquist stretches out to two turns here, figuring to be on or right off of the lead. Just looks too good for these and if anyone who might fire up a Preakness future book would be wise to tab this Nyquist colt as a short price.

7. Stronghold - adds blinkers off of a narrow defeat in the Los Al Futurity, just tiring late cost him the win. Well drawn directly to the outside of Nysos, excellent rider Fresu should be able to use that rival as a target which won’t matter much if he can’t keep pace with him. D’Amato has weak numbers adding blinkers but it’s also not a move he makes very often though the majority of blinkers on winners for him on the dirt were maidens.

8. Mc Vay - beat 7 lengths in a MSW 14 days ago. $1.2 million dollar Saratoga yearling by Constitution has a whole lot of improving to do in a short time to make any impact here.

9. Scatify - as well as Justify is doing as a stallion these days it’s hard to ignore any of his progeny. This guy has his work cut off for him stretching out from a single winning effort going 6f at Los Al mid-December. His dam was strictly a turf sprinter and the outside post draw makes an early choice by Berrios necessary if he is going to grab the lead or try to get set up in a stalking position. Tough spot.

📸 credit TC - Lodging Larceny upcoming in the Spa City 💸