Prep Walk
Real Writing on Racing 💯
This weekend the road to the Kentucky Derby is heating up with three 50 point to the winner preps in Florida, New York and California plus a rubber race for a dime (10 points) over in Florence. With no prohibitive favorite emerging from the pack this year, these larger point races take on even more significance than usual, especially considering the murky status of ‘you know who’ and his roster of potential contenders. With so many points that would have already been earned yet disappeared into the black hole of ‘you know who’s’ banishment by CDI, proportionally this rounds points are even bigger. With large fields and no standouts, these are excellent puzzles to figure out and even though the Gotham at the one turn mile distance has rarely produced Derby runners, with this years crop…well who knows? We will start first in chilly Ozone Park and give our official Going in Circles rundown for the historic Gotham Stakes before heading south to Gulfstream then west to Santa Anita.
Gotham S. Gr. III $300000 1 mile Aqueduct
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Runninsonofagun - bargain 16k son of sensational new sire Gun Runner has been claimed both times that he has been offered for a tag. Both appear to have been sharp buys but he has to improve ALOT to get a sniff here. Not today.
Glider - improving Quality Road colt broke his maiden at GP on the tapioca before running a non-threatening 2nd in an allowance race on dirt behind touted Pletcher FoY runner Emmanuel at Tampa last out. Ships north for Casse and brings along Tampa’s perennial leading jock Gallardo to ride. Interesting spot as he has run three times and all have been around two turns and he cuts back to one turn here. Hasn’t run nearly fast enough (paired 10’s TG) and though it was first out at a long price, he has run far better on lasix his last two, which he sheds here. Demand a long price if using behind faster runners.
Golden Code - Pletcher runner broke maiden in dominant fashion over very slow muddy track which he clearly relished in last at Aqueduct a month ago. He chased Bold Journey to no avail in his debut and that one is one of the choices in today’s race. Hard to gauge in this spot.
Fromanthamutha - wins the 🙄 name award for the day, finally broke his maiden in try number 6, cutting back to 7 furlongs after futile effort on the lead in the Remsen in November. Trainer Handal still looking for that elusive first graded stakes win however I don’t think it’s going a be the 2022 Gotham. Another horse off lasix and he looks like a pace presser in a race with a ton of early speed.
Dean’s List - Speightstown colt has won both career starts going 6 furlongs in fast times at GP for Pletcher. He broke his maiden in December in relatively easy fashion while earning a fast fig (6 TG) for a maiden race and was ultra game in an early January allowance, gutting out a tight decision over FoY runners, Dean Delivers and In Due Time, who both came back with big races to verify that was a very strong race. Franco takes over in the saddle and has to deal with what looks like a rapid early pace down that long straightaway out of the mile chute. Aqueduct is a much deeper surface than Gulfstream which has been very fast so there is that question if Deans List will handle it equally as well.
Life is Great - the rare case where good is better than great but this Tapiture homebred for EV Racing stables and Bob Klesaris has grinded his way into being a legit stakes horse. It took a while to get that first win though he always improved and ran respectable, three back he finally broke through and ran a big figure (5.75 TG) and though he regressed a bit when running third in a stakes at Laurel. He ran fast once again in his runner up effort last out in the Jimmie Winkfield behind Morello who got a nice trip stalking the speed. Cancel might try to rate a little if a speed duel materializes though not convinced he might be better at sprint distances.
Noneedtoworry - well you don’t have to worry about him getting involved in the fast pace as he doesn’t possess any early speed. Best hope is a total pace meltdown but would still need a lot to go right.
Bold Journey - looked home free mid-stretch last out in the Gander over the Aqueduct mud but came to a complete walk the last 100 yards and got nabbed by Barese who isn’t in the Gotham. He has run fast in all of his three starts and the horse that he dueled with in the Gander was finished before they even hit the stretch so perhaps that race was better than it appeared visually? Vargas takes the reins for Mott and he has to figure out how to not duel once again as this group looks faster and better than he has been facing.
Morello has cruised in both starts including the Jimmy Winkfield in his latest. Classic Empire colt trained by Asmussen (Toby Sheets) was able to work out nice stalking trips in both and being drawn outside Lezcano should find plenty of early speed to target in here. Price might be short but he is the horse to beat in a really nice edition of the Gotham.
Rockefeller - Baffert sends this colt back to New York like he did in early November when he won a grade III, one turn mile stake, the Nashua over at Belmont in wire to wire fashion. Next out he chased the pace and held off Oviatt Class for second in the Sham won by Newgrange who won the Southwest at OP out of that race but bombed in the Rebel last week as the favorite. Same barn sent American Freedom to finish off the board in last years Gotham. Been working short which isn’t the usual Baffert pattern of longer works so clearly he is trying to inject some speed back into him (don’t smirk). I’m fading him in here as I don’t think he can clear and he hasn’t shown an ability to rate and finish.
💵 Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Glider
Fountain of Youth Gr. II $400000 1 1/16 GP
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Markhamian - shipped to Tampa to capture the Pasco going 7 furlongs in latest after breaking maiden versus statebreds in December at GP. Has shown high speed in two wins and drawing post number 1 probably means Meneses will be sending into that short run to the first turn. He has improved but this is a tough spot to stretch out especially with other speedy types signed on.
Simplification - earned respect finishing second in the Holy Bull despite getting away poorly which served to take him out of his usual front running style. Has to contend with Markhamian inside of him and a host of potential pace challengers from the outside so perhaps new rider Jose Ortiz will try to rate a bit? Ran super fast when winning the Mucho Macho Man (2.5 TG) and did regress despite being hung wide in his last effort (5.5 TG). I’m taking a glass half empty outlook here thinking the huge fig might have been a little too much, too soon and coupled with what figures to be a contested early pace has me looking elsewhere.
Howling Time - Roman’s 3 year old runners have badly underperformed in Florida stakes in recent years especially compared to their fall Kentucky form. This guy ran really well when he won the Street Sense at Churchill on Halloween but bombed in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr. II) when put on the lead setting ordinary fractions. That race has famously produced the winners of the Lecomte, the Sam Davis, the Holy Bull and Smile Happy just ran second in the Risen Star. With the “key race” buzz and his recent sizzling morning work we are guessing he will go off lower than his morning line of 15-1. Mixed signals but he isn’t impossible.
In Due Time - broke his maiden way back in July at Monmouth, returned to the races with a good third against Gotham runner Deans List and Dean Delivers going 3/4 of a mile and then buried an allowance field going a mile on February 4th. Should get plenty of pace to run into in his two turn debut and his pedigree suggests this trip should be within his scope. A repeat of his last (3 TG) makes him super competitive in here.
Dean Delivers - has wildly overachieved in his brief career with a win and three close seconds in four starts. Two of those seconds were in stakes including the Swale last out going 7 furlongs and he has run fast (5.75 TG) in his last two starts. However he doesn’t look like a great candidate to stretch out in a race as tough as the Fountain of Youth. First he is by Cajun Breeze who was not even a stakes winner but did his best work sprinting. His dam is by speed influence Yes it’s True and Yates is only 5% first time at route and has never won a graded stakes before. Hard to recommend.
Rattle N Roll - clearly is a talented horse but he has some hurdles to climb in this spot. First he hasn’t run since October when he won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland which is a Grade I race but the 2021 edition hasn’t been flattered by its participants performances since, outside of Classic Causeway who set a lively pace that day. Secondly his running style is not conducive to winning 8.5 furlong races at Gulfstream Park. McPeek hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this winter in Hallandale either. The one positive is that the early pace should be strong, he should have some fast fractions to run at but will he be able to find a seam, not lose too much ground and have enough of the short stretch left to run them down? Tough task.
A. P.’s Secret - this horse is a tough read for me. I just don’t think he is good enough at this point and he is likely to sit close to a rapid pace in his first two turn race. Added blinkers and lasix in last which was winning effort. Leaning against.
Emmanuel - this is the type of horse that you go broke betting on at short prices. He was very good first time out winning at a mile on December 11th at GP getting a decent speed fig (8.5) for a debut. Pletcher shipped to Tampa where he strong armed a fair allowance group where he set pedestrian fractions, was challenged briefly before exerting his dominance late (8.25 TG). He has been on the lead in both starts and it seems like it will be difficult to clear this group with speed inside, post 8 and a short run to the turn. So what you are asking is a horse in his third start to be forced out of his running style, perhaps chase a hot pace, perhaps lose ground on the first turn and run much faster than he has in his first two races. The human connections are top notch but at 3-1 or less it’s a tough bet.
High Oak - speaking of tough tasks, this well regarded colt hasn’t raced since a dull 4th closing weekend at Saratoga in the Hopeful. Assuming that he settles near the back of the pack, as stated before, he should have plenty of pace in front of him and perhaps his closing kick gets him a piece of the pie? Bill Mott is a hall of famer already but if he can pull this off they should renew his vows and put him in again.
Giant Game - might scratch. They should.
O Captain - oh no.
Mo Donegal - Scratched
Galt - draws in off the also eligible list which is something that rarely happens in stake races these days. Found himself unexpectedly on the lead in the Holy Bull, set an honest pace and didn’t collapse when he was passed. It was probably a better effort than he was given credit for but is still up against it here. Gets Rosario which is never bad but he needs to run much faster than he has (10 TG is top) and has the dreaded outside post at 1 1/16th at GP.
💵 Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - In Due Time
San Felipe Gr. II $400000 1 1/16 Santa Anita
Click here for past performances
Happy Jack - ran really well first time out. Ran really poor last time out. Sheds blinkers but that feels more like O’ Neill is just trying to change things up after a 27 length shellacking.
Worse Read Sanchez - part two of “we have very little positive to say about Doug O’Neill’s entrants in the San Felipe”. I don’t know if he would hit the board if the race was mysteriously switched to grass on which he has been competing on relatively well. For turf to dirt fans only (remember when that was a thing?)
Armagnac - Quality Road colt seemed a little better suited to the two turn race than he did sprinting. Didn’t come back with a particularly fast figure but form perhaps flattered when distant third place finisher South Street shipped east to Aqueduct to break his maiden going 9 furlongs. Doesn’t appear to have enough early foot to prevent Forbidden Kingdom from getting to the front and will likely have to employ stalking tactics. He isn’t impossible but hard to love at an underlaid price.
Beautiful Art - broke maiden last out going six furlongs in a 200k maiden claimer for Callaghan who hasn’t been shooting well this Santa Anita winter meeting. Never easy to stretch to two turns from a six furlong race and really difficult to jump from maiden claimers (even inflated priced ones) to graded stakes company. That said, he did run a much better speed fig second time versus first time (5 TG vs 15 TG). Would still be a surprise.
Doppelgänger - didn’t show much when 4th in the San Vincente (Gr II) behind Forbidden Kingdom after breaking his maiden impressively back in December at Los Al. Isn’t a typical Baffert Derby trail type as he doesn’t seem to have a lot of tactical speed which puts him at a disadvantage here.
Forbidden Kingdom - will likely be popular favorite in this spot for Mandella. Isn’t all that fast (6 TG is top) but he appears to hold the pace advantage over this group which is very important in Southern California preps. Doesn’t meet much here and while he is probably most likely winner, his price makes him tough to play. One thing to keep in mind going forward, his pedigree doesn’t scream two turns or distance as his mother was precocious and fast but was strictly a sprinter.
Cabo Spirit - was a distant second to Messier in the Robert Lewis (Gr. III) while clear of the rest of the field by 7 lengths. It’s hard to gauge that effort as the winner was in a different area code and it’s likely the rest simply aren’t very good. He has improved and his TG (6.75) is close to as fast as the favorite, has plenty of two turn experience and might get a nice stalking trip.
💵 Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Doppelgänger
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