Pondering Pegasus Possibilities

Real Writing on Racing 💯

During the eight years since the Donn Handicap morphed into the Pegasus World Cup, much has changed in racing circles. The first running of the race was a unique setup where stakeholders bought “slots” to the race for $1,000,000 dollars each, giving the holders the right to share in not only purse winnings but any ancillary income that was hoped to eventually be raised via sponsorship or television rights, etc. This concept was born in 2017 while The Stronach Group was still under the leadership of its founder, the mercurial Frank Stronach. Stronach, a staunch racing supporter, wanted to capitalize on the quiet time on the calendar for the older horse division while giving a high profile star one final chance to knock off a huge money grade 1 prior to heading off to stud. Positioned roughly 60 days before the lucrative Dubai World Cup program and 2 1/2 months post Breeders Cup, the race itself figured to be both a destination, a starting point and even a prep for the top dirt horses. After some really good races featuring Arrogate, Californa Chrome and Gun Runner the structure of the event was changed, the buy-in eliminated and a Turf Pegasus added to the day. Then the Saudis launched their sports washing campaign and as part of that program, the Saudi Cup and its $20,000,000 purse, scheduled directly in-between the Pegasus and DWC, was born.

The Pegasus was fortunate in 2021 and 2022 as the vagrancies of racing dropped some star-level horses into their lap for similar reasons. In 2021 Knicks Go was coming off a blowout Breeders Cup Dirt Mile win in the Fall of 2020, capping off a career resurgence under the new management of trainer Brad Cox. The 2021 Pegasus was an ideal spot to kick off his season as Cox was looking to stretch out his new found star to the more lucrative longer distances. The field opposing Knicks Go wasn’t particularly strong, similar to the previous year when the purse had been dropped to $3,000,000 and won by the relatively ordinary Mucho Gusto, and he cruised home, the first step on his way to a championship season. The next year in 2022 was Knicks Go’s swan song as he was off to stud after the race, but rather than a soft group he was facing 2021 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile winner, Life is Good. The Todd Pletcher charge was himself looking to kick off a traditional older horse campaign after his three year old season had been interrupted by injury. It served to be a compelling storyline pitting the emerging four year old against the older Horse of the Year though the race itself was rather anti-climatic as Life is Good cruised…but it did what elite racing is supposed to do, match the best against the best.

So where am I going with all this history of the Pegasus talk?

“Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern”

-Ann Liang

I think the Pegasus needs fixing and having a second one sure isn’t the answer. We aren’t speaking of the actual Pegasus event, as the very solid undercard has become an oasis in a sea of pretty dull winter racing cards…no we are talking of the big race itself. Now we are just focusing on racing here, I don’t care about the parties and “entertainment” aspect as it’s basically just a soirée for the ‘once a year’ attendees and the vast majority of racing enthusiasts don’t partake.

Last year’s Pegasus wasn’t a good race in terms of true grade 1 quality and this year’s was also decidedly lacking in excellence. It isn’t Gulfstream Park’s fault that the three year old crops have fallen apart these last two years with the names Forte, Mage, Epicenter, Two Phil’s, Mo Donegal, Angel of Empire, Disarm, Arcangelo, Tapit Trice, etc. not completing their season, going to stud or being injured and unable to compete. It also isn’t Gulfstream’s doing that the older horse division last year was historically poor and this year’s crop is looking shaky as well. However the fact that of the last two runnings, only Cyberknife took a final stab against a non-descript group in a $3,000,000 grade 1 race before heading to stud is troubling. The economics of first year stallions is such that risk of injury during the extra training time and race itself, plus an hefty insurance expense, simply doesn’t seem worth it for many stud farms. With the ultimate goal of being in the gate of the Breeders Cup Classic in November for most connections with top older dirt horses…the date of the Pegasus can be troublesome. Nine and a half months is a long campaign for any era and for top three year olds that completed a full season the prior year, the late January race date doesn’t give much time for a post-campaign breather. With the emergence of Japanese and other foreign runners on the dirt, the four editions of the Saudi Cup have only produced a single US based winner, Maximum Security, who was finally DQ’ed just days ago after crossing the wire first in February of 2020. Obviously there will be US based horses pointing in that direction as Saudi owners want to run at home and $20 million bucks is still $20 million bucks but it’s clear that the Pegasus to Saudi Cup path will not be very well traveled. It’s more slightly likely that a Pegasus - Dubai World Cup path may be chosen by some but should those sponsoring a $3,000,000 grade 1 race really be concerned with serving as an appetizer for some far off land? I think not.

1/ST Racing also owns and manages Santa Anita, the winter Southern California stalwart that is being dragged under by the rip tide of years of bad choices and an extreme political atmosphere in a state that seems loathe to assist the flailing industry. A casualty of the combo of a shrinking domestic talent base and middle eastern cash, is the Santa Anita Handicap (Gr I). Traditionally run in early March, the Big Cap was once among the most important races in North America, think along the lines of the status of a western Met Mile. These days the race is yet another anachronism, a shell of its former past with little interest outside of the depleted SoCal handicap ranks. The last five winners: Gift Box, Combatant, Idol, Express Train and Stilleto Boy combined for ZERO grade one wins beyond their lone victory in the Big Cap (yoo hoo Graded Stakes committee….) and it’s generally a majority local affair.

Call me crazy but a racetrack company that runs two grade 1 stakes for the same class of horse, in the face of $32,000,000 worth of competition, during the same spring season, that doesn’t tether them together, is missing an opportunity. Here is our proposal:

Cut the purse of the Pegasus to $1,500,000, raise the purse of the Santa Anita Handicap to $1,500,000 and use the extra funds to sponsor shipping expenses, bonus structures and other perks. Create a Pegasus/Big Cap/Pimlico Special sweepstakes where a horse that wins all three gets some absurd jackpot (can be insured for reasonable figure). The truth is that the Pegasus isn’t going to have great horses anymore outside of a fluke situation (they’d have the same field the last two years at a lower purse point), the Santa Anita Handicap should be in danger of being downgraded (yoo hoo Graded Stakes committee) and a beefed up Pimlico Special could be scheduled for Preakness day, which won’t be a 1/ST problem in a few years, but it’s another old standard bearer that is but a shell of its former self. We may get National Treasure vs Senor Buscador 2 somewhere down the line but it should be in the Big Cap and a third go around over the track National Treasure captured the Preakness the previous year (especially if he was going for the absurd bonus) would be a compelling storyline that best utilized the 1/ST resources and existing stakes races.

Ultimately the person that calls the shots for 1/ST seems to have a far greater awareness of the Miami club scene than the national racing schedule. As I was writing this screed, it was announced that some sort of second Pegasus was being planned for late September at Santa Anita, using a grade one three year old race with a ‘as of yet undetermined’ purse, as the main focus. We don’t have a lot of details yet but this seems bizarre for a few reasons. An obvious issue seems to be that you can’t just decide that you are going to create a “grade 1 race”. While the entire grading system seems to have gone off the tracks (still trying to come to grips that a group of industry professionals decided the Franklin-Simpson Stakes should be a grade 1) there are rules that exist and as far as I can tell the only grade 1 races for three year olds run at Santa Anita and can be shifted are the Santa Anita Derby and the Malibu. Clearly changing either of these would be incredibly ill-advised and it was mentioned in the press release that some “gap in the three year old schedule existed” during this time frame, which ignores the existence of the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby and their own grade 1 race for 3 and up, the Awesome Again. Using the Awesome Again as a straight three year old race would fail to provide west coast based older horses with a stepping stone race to the Classic and let’s be honest, by the fall there aren’t usually enough graded quality three year old dirt horses going long in Southern California (or even nationally) to play a game of pickleball, let alone fill a starting gate for a grade one race.

Why does it matter you say?

It should be plainly obvious that fashion, entertainment and celebrities are not conduits to improved business for a racetrack. Wasting money on foolishness ultimately leads to a financial reckoning as even the billionaire-est of billionaires eventually grows weary of losing money. It’s difficult for some in the racing industry to accept but these big days are powered by the racing, not the fluff. The Kentucky Derby is a cultural event, a spectacle of Americana and anything that happens there is unique to its own sphere of influence. Derby hats and mint juleps and all the other distractions only matter because the compelling nature of America’s biggest race. Even on racing’s biggest day, the vast majority of customers around the country are drawn for the deep, competitive star-laden undercard races in addition to the 20 horse ‘Run for the Roses’ puzzle. Same with the Belmont Stakes day card. Same with the Travers day card. Same with the two day Breeders Cup cards. Build on the racing, not the other way around. Fluff as the draw doesn’t work, it has never worked, it will never work.

The Pegasus is simply a souped-up Donn Handicap preceded by a nice card of races, held in winter, during a slow period on the calendar. Reportedly it is not even a money making venture for 1/ST who must pitch in a huge chunk of the purses for the three Pegasus branded races, only a small fraction is derived from the horsemans account. Throwing gobs of money at a watered down three year old division right after the Saratoga and Del Mar meets conclude and five weeks before the Breeders Cup, while surely charging ridiculous prices for the average racing fan to attend, has great bust potential. The other big elephant in the room is timing, considering the continued lethargy of the California racing industry in general. It’s somewhat bewildering to make proclamations about creating, “the richest day of racing in California…”, the same week as articles are published about the struggles of maintaining purse levels with the current status of horseman’s account’s being deep in the red of overpayment. Cutting days, slashing purses, eliminating stakes and other matters of austerity are on the minds of the beleaguered horsemen of the Golden State, without even getting into the debacle that Northern Cal racing has become. (Read about it here)

Yet here is the owner of Santa Anita and the terminal Golden Gate, creating and funding a race that no one (outside of Mr Baffert perhaps) wanted, that disrupts the natural progression of the west coast path to the Breeders Cup, in order to throw a party. Not only that, for the day to have any meaningful success from a racing standpoint, it will require a boatload of shippers, meaning a sizable portion of the check that the boss lady writes will likely flow directly out of where it’s needed most, California.

The Gulfstream Pegasus day works because there isn’t much going on in January in terms of major stakes racing, you have a captured audience of horsemen who are wintering locally from New York, Kentucky and New Jersey among other locales, in addition to the solid group of year-round trainers. The competition for the simulcast signal on the last Saturday of January consists of mundane Aqueduct mid-winter cards, Oaklawn which has no grass racing and Fair Grounds, which had run a stakes-laden card the previous week. The last week of September means you are pitted against strong signals from Churchill Downs and Belmont at Aqueduct, both running thier own Breeders Cup prep races, NY in particular has 14 preps to run over the two weekends that bookend the end of the month. The greater Miami area is a booming hotspot for tourists from northern climates looking for a respite from the winter doldrums in late January. Racing enthusiasts often make the trek down to South Florida for the Pegasus as the last big racing event day was the Breeders Cup, close to three months prior. With SoCal Breeders Cup days looming five weeks later, coming of off the wildly popular Del Mar and Saratoga seasons, would a late September Pegasus be a compelling draw? How many racing fans are able or willing to make two trips to SoCal this fall? How many of the locals are willing to pony up for expensive tickets for both California Crown day and the two Breeders Cup days held just weeks apart? What about when the Breeders Cup inevitably heads back East?

In the end, it’s easy to forget your troubles in the wake of a fun day of racing, especially those who were fortunate enough to have been there. Where we often miss in this industry is not striving to maximize our exposure, we need to be creating pathways that can be easily followed that provide a benefit for the sport beyond just a single big day. There is a reaction to every action in the thoroughbred ecosystem; handle gains at one track is usually monies that shifted away from another, big fields are often made up of horses drawn away from a different track or a different days card. We are quick to celebrate success in racing and alternatively we are slow to recognize and react to trouble. Ultimately it isn’t my place or yours to tell someone what they can do with their money, whether they are buying an expensive yearling, placing a wager on a jackpot bet or funding a mediocre stakes race. It is fair game however, to express to how those things worked out and how to, perhaps, do it better next time. The sensitivity levels in this game are still dialed way too high, far too many are quick to lash out because someone else spoke of an uncomfortable reality that exists. We see those at the top layer of the game clashing over power, creating commissions or giving themselves awards yet the tracks are still the controlling bodies, for better or worse. The Pegasus was a nice day of racing yesterday but will it be of much benefit to South Florida racing next Thursday or during the summer months? The California Pegasus probably sounds like a good idea to some but is it really as currently proposed?

We shall see.

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Random thoughts

⭐️ When we look back at yesterday at some point in the future, the names that might be best remembered are Speak Easy and Victory Avenue. Those two first time starters put on a show, cutting the morning air through blazing fractions before the Pletcher trained son of Constitution, Speak Easy edged away late. Victory Avenue, a colt by Arrogate from the familiar Mage connections, was highly touted with plenty of tote support, ran sharp in his debut, just getting a little tired the last 50 yards while well clear of the third place finisher. The final time of 1:21.96 was faster than the Inside Information (Gr II) later in the afternoon (1:23.04) with Speak Easy getting a 100 Beyer fig for the effort.

⏱️ Timing of races has become more difficult for a multitude of reasons, which may be the most incredible of the many things that racing doesn’t do well. In that vein it’s hard to look at the times of the grass races posted on the Pegasus card and take them with more than a grain of salt.

✅ Note to jockeys riding in races that Ryan Moore is in, it might not be a bad idea to follow him as he seems to be able to find the right path more often than not.

🏇🏻 I’d be willing to give both Integration and Star Fortress (Ire) another shot next out. Integration never looked comfortable traveling over the sandy and firm GP course and the traffic didn’t help either. Star Fortress (Ire) had a nightmare of a trip and I’d draw a line through her non-effort, Try both back at a much better price next out.

❓ At different times in their careers it looked like Gilmore and Accretive might be ready to take the next step to being star level performers. Yet after another disappointing effort from both in the Fred Hooper (Gr III), you have to wonder where the 7th and 8th place finishers go next?

🌎 National Treasure is a great example of a horse that wants to be free running on or just off a fast pace and if you try to rate them, they just won’t perform as well. The trip yesterday was good despite some acting like he warded off Hedevar, and he showed grit holding off Senor Buscador who might have hung a little at the end. Crupi clunked up to be third (which I’m sure made my friend Walter happy) 4 3/4 lengths behind the winner, the fourth through last place finishers were all beaten more than 11 lengths in a pretty extraordinary display of ineptness.

🔥 Because of a delay necessitated by untoward Arkansas winter weather, the Southwest Stakes (Gr III) card will now be run this Saturday at Oaklawn, which helps boost what was an excellent day for racing aficionados into a great one. The Holy Bull (Gr III) at GP, the Withers (Gr III) at Aqu and the Robert Lewis (Gr III) are all ‘20 point to the winner’ Kentucky Derby preps and with the field looking wide open currently, the four races should offer a bit of clarity moving forward.

🎪 The Belmont at Saratoga admission prices were released this past week and they mirror last year’s figures when held at Belmont. $10 for Wednesday/Thursday, $25 for Friday and $50 for Belmont Stakes day or $90 for a 4 day pass. NYRA cleverly threw us a curve by not banning coolers but prohibiting alcoholic beverages to be carried in them while allowing food and non-alcoholic drinks. One can only hope that the fickle upstate weather provides sunshine for that stretch as last summer’s rain was enough.