Parx and Recreation

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Sep 24, 2022

Welcome to Pennsylvania Derby weekend! It’s the one day of the year where good old Parx has national relevance and for at least one afternoon, the rail won’t be like a snake pit from Raiders of the Lost Ark. We are going to preview a bunch of races from Saturday’s card at the lovely Bensalem oval, as always proceed with caution and a friendly reminder that your wagering strategy is more important than your handicapping. (Also don’t look up the takeout rates at the former Keystone Racetrack, as they are still rated NC-17 viewing only)

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🦀 Pimlico has four stakes on their card Saturday

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📽 Be sure to check out the video on the bottom of the page! If you never saw it, you won’t believe it. If you have seen it…you still may not believe it.

Parx PA Derby graded stakes (Dirt) Previews

Greenwood Cup Gr III $200,000 12f dirt 3&up

Brooklyn Strong - improved form since Barboza took over, three straight thirds including 2 in NYB stakes. Gets Rosario but only Parx try was dreadful. Also entered in stakes at Pimlico on Saturday.
Western River - three year old takes on elders in first stakes marathon try though does have a win at the distance in a Churchill allowance earlier this summer. Picks up Prat and gets in at 119 so will be getting 7 pounds from most of the contenders. Not impossible but demand a good price if you wanna take a flyer on him.
Magic Michael - the 2021 winner of the Greenwood Cup is trained by local kingpin Ness, who is currently still training while his license suspension for a drug violation is being appealed. This son of unknown stallion Dramedy, was in better form last year coming into this though his amazing Parx record of 10 starts with 9 wins and a second have to be considered. For all of the wild success that Ness has had over the years, amazingly he rarely ventures into the graded stakes waters. Of his 3738 winners from 15048 starts, he only has two graded stakes wins, with Magic Michael’s Greenwood Cup last year representing 50% of his total. Leaning against him repeating.
Bossmakinbossmoves - another three year old tackling elders, he exits a good win in the NYB Albany stakes last month, going 9 furlongs in the slop at Saratoga, as the longest shot in the four horse field. Stretches out three more furlongs and hall of fame rider Johnny Velazquez draws the riding assignment today. He is also cross-entered at BAQ on Saturday as a Main Track Only entrant in the Ashley T Cole stakes. Tough assignment here.
Ridin With Biden - might be more dangerous in this spot if the seemingly overmatched Double the Heart were to scratch. In good form, coming off an impossible three wide stalking the speed trip in the Iselin at Monmouth. Before that he ran away with the Deputed Testimony at Laurel, wiring that group and besting Magic Michael by 10 lengths. As of now, no rider had been named but he is a player in here, more so without the aforementioned Double the Heart heating the pace. Check for scratches and jockey changes.
Double the Heart - comes in off of good race in starter win at Monmouth but this is a big class test and he is unlikely to get the trip.
The Reds - grinded out a NW2x allowance race win at Saratoga, second off the trainer change. The distance of course is the question, but he has decent tactical speed, picks up Irad and should be in the hunt at the top of the stretch.
Fearless - the obvious class of the field, exits consecutive wins in the Birdstone and Brooklyn(Gr II) before that and looms the prohibitive favorite. Luis Saez had to earn his money last time, literally having to ride Fearless hard the entire 1 3/4 trip. At some point the horse may just not respond to the urging and disappoint at a very short price. Perhaps Saturday is that day?
Forewarned - Uriah St. Lewis is a difficult man to figure. His horses run and they run often and every once in awhile they wind up in the winners circle, usually at a long price. I honestly have no idea what to think of this horse in this race.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Fearless

Gallant Bob Gr III six furlongs dirt 3yo

Dance Code - PA bred hasn’t hit board in four starts, seems overmatched.
Of a Revolution - adds blinkers and Prat while shortening back to 6f after two turn 7f runner up at CT last out. In with a chance though we prefer others
Provocateur - morning line favorite at 4-1, figures to be a touch lower IMO coming off of 2 length score at Monmouth in the Jersey Shore, defeating several of Saturdays rivals in the process. Has plenty of tractability allowing Irad to be adaptable to whatever pace scenario develops. Has a big chance here.
Speaking - has developed into top NJ bred sprinter, beat older state breds when winning NJ Breeders Handicap last out. Was third behind Provocateur in start before that though with a wide trip which compromised him that day. Did run 2nd in stakes over this surface last winter for trainer Eddie Owens who does really well with sprinters.
Little Vic - Practical Joke colt tried to get on Derby trail earlier this spring before going back to sprinting. Owned by former MLB all-star Victor Martinez, he has yet to prove he can beat stakes quality horses. Last out over this surface, Paco set suicidal fractions and he faded late but he also has yet to prove he can win without being on the lead or battling for it. Fading here.
Jelly Nougat - cuts back after racing longer distances at Churchill for old trainer Sharp. New conditioner Padilla-Precidao has won with several huge prices going route to sprint if you are looking for a bomb.
No Sabe Nada - ‘doesn’t know nothing’ in Spanish. I don’t know about him in this spot, he chases and holds his position but doesn’t pass horses well enough for me to like in here. He was a great buy at the 2020 Keeneland yearling sale, only bringing $2000 and has since earned $174,200.
Witty - turns back in distance after waste of time going long in the Smarty Jones in his last. Probably has the strongest late kick of anyone in the group and should be passing horses in the stretch. The question is can he pass all of them? Has hesitated leaving the gate in his last two which could be an issue in a bulky field where a slow start means being 14th down the backside. Is 2 for 2 over Parx surface sprinting, crushed PA bred stakes foes last fall. Check to see how the track is playing before dismissing him. If speed isn’t great, that will give him a fighting shot at an excellent price, if speed is good, he is probably up against it.
Runninsonofagun - has hit the board in four consecutive stakes against far better opposition in NY. Was recently a good third behind division leader Jack Christopher and Gunite in the HA Jerkens (Gr I), either of them would be 2-5 against this group. Toscano added blinkers for the last and the gelded son of Gun Runner was able to stay a bit closer to the pace while still having closing punch. Adds Saez for this spot and will be dangerous if the expected hot pace develops. The 6-1 morning line seems ridiculous, he is a good play at half that price.
Lightening Larry - chased swift pace and faded last out in Jersey Shore at Monmouth. Has fast gate work since and expect him to be out and winging on the front end or pressing the pace. Tough assignment as if he doesn’t clear, might be forced wide which isn’t usually bad on most days at Parx but on PA Derby day, the inside usually is good.
Nakatomi - lightly raced gelding only has one start this year, an allowance win at Churchill back in June. Clearly has ability and Ward has uncanny success in graded stakes (winning 35% with 2.94 ROI) but slow starter might have a lot left to do if he breaks bad in this huge field. Rosario shows up here and have to respect but if speed is holding and his price is around the morning line (9-2) you are not getting much value for your money.
Alottahope - comes in with back to back stakes wins against lesser. Does have closing kick and underrated jockey Toledo might be able to get him good position to make his late run at a nice price. Very interesting.
Practical Coach - sprinting has never been his thing and no reason to believe that will change from post 13.
Scarmouche - post 14 doesn’t help matters for this in-form stalker trained by Parx legend Lupe Preciado and ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez. Stylistically I like his fit in here, he has tactical speed and can still finish which is important. However I’m not positive that he is quite good enough to overcome anything less than a perfect trip to beat this caliber and his last two, while good races, were both perfecto’s.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Witty

Cotillion Grade I $1,000,000 8.5 furlongs dirt 3yo fillies

Green Up - Pletcher trainee steps up to the big leagues after dominating listed stakes fillies. Figures to be close up to the pace from post 1, might be a little overrated based on last Beyer figure which is an outlier for her. Or you could make the case that she is just a rapidly developing three year old? Either way I don’t believe that she will be her morning line price of 6-1.
Adare Manor - ships east making first start since late May when second in the Black Eyed Susan. Back in Baffert’s shedrow, she has been working lights out which is typical BB. She should be on or near the pace under new jock Mike Smith. Obvious contender and 7-2 is a solid price.
Goddess of Fire - exits tough test against Nest in the Alabama, a race where she looked briefly at the top of the stretch while fanning out 8 wide. Should appreciate the cutback to 8.5 furlongs, Johnny V sticks and should get enough pace to run into. Has spent most of her career picking up the pieces in races though not winning and that seems like the likely scenario again here.
Beach Daze - great claim last fall, ludicrous placement in this spot.
Gerrymander - form has been erratic since winning Tempted last fall and beating current division kingpin Nest when doing so. Won the small field Mother Goose (Gr II) when Juju’s Map didn’t show up (and subsequently hasn’t been very good as a three year old), but surrounded that with dull efforts in the Eight Belles (Gr II) and Alabama (Gr I). Her best might be good enough, it’s difficult to know if that is coming this Saturday. Gets Rosario back, he rode her in her only win this season. Has never won a 2 turn race.
Secret Oath - she was the darling of the three year old fillies set after annexing the Kentucky Oaks, capping the Wayne Lukas grade one reunion tour this spring. However since then, she tried boys once again in a tough trip Preakness and then got blasted by a streaking Nest twice at the Spa. Obviously she is good enough but when will those huge efforts time and time again start to take their toll? Lukas in his heyday was always difficult to gauge as he ran so much that horses would come in and out of form with little signal that either was coming. I’d bet against her in this spot as the favorite, she has been really good for a long time but today may be the day that she regresses enough to be off the board. If she beats me, she beats me.
Shahama - won a pretty soft Monmouth Oaks last out, her first domestic stakes win but she ran her best race that day. Will be further back than she has been in her last two outings which were small fields. Prat returns and will be hoping for a strong early pace to run into. She isn’t the likeliest winner though she isn’t necessarily an unlikely one either. I’d actually like her more on a typical Parx, dead inside, outside flow track than the special one day surface that we are probably gonna get. If the track is playing normal, upgrade her chances.
Morning Matcha - B team type, doesn’t seem like she is good enough against this class of filly.
Society - captured the CT Oaks (Gr III) around the bullring last out. Not sure she is good enough on the traditional trip to beat these.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Adare Manor

PA Derby Gr I $1,000,000 9 furlongs dirt 3yo

Zandon - has become sort of the forgotten three year old as he hasn’t shown the ability or desire to pass the last few in his races since besting the B team in the Bluegrass back in April. Perhaps might get a lively pace to close into and put a scare into the favorites under new rider Rosario.
Icy Storm - no
B Dawk - figures to get some sentimental cash as he is named after Eagles legend Brain Dawkins (Steve Byk’s 6th favorite Eagle player ever). However he doesn’t appear to be likely to make much of an impact outside of perhaps being part of the early pace.
Skippylongstocking - I am skeptical about his last two figures. He has improved though I don’t know that I buy that he and We the People ran quite as fast as TG has the West Virginia Derby. I am skeptical about many of the West Virginia numbers (Society ran a -.0.25 in CT Oaks?). That said his increased early speed makes him more dangerous though in my mind he is still a half notch below the top ones in here.
Cyberknife - wound up on the lead in the Travers and was no match for Epicenter, though was very game holding off Zandon and Rich Strike to be second (though that isn’t exactly holding off Alysheba and Forego). Should get preferred stalking trip here and is clearly major contender though I think I will be looking in a different direction.
We the People - how good is he? Not much excuse last time in WV Derby (Gr III) though he was second best, it was not the A types he was facing in there. Assuming he will be sent to the lead again and might get some pressure (What is Saez on White Abarrio going to do?) which won’t bode well for his chance of wiring these.
Tawny Port - has not run fast enough to beat the best in here yet. Was bogged down on a slow rail last out in the Jim Dandy (Gr II), a race where he ran evenly. Could leap forward and surprise but demand a big price.
Taiba - probably best last out in the Haskell as the lightly raced colt was mired down in the inside, not going forward, before Mike Smith took back and angled him to the outside path. Once he got free from the kickback, he regained the ground he lost, loomed mid-stretch and just got nabbed by Cyberknife (who saved ground throughout) on the wire. Off 63 days since that effort (Travers wasn’t an option) he seems most likely to improve and run his best race. Pace scenario may work in his favor as well, only negative is the short price.
Simplification - refugee from the Triple Crown trail, disappointing effort in WV Derby in his last, was running same numbers in early January as he hasn’t developed. Might also get wide trip from outside post.
Naval Aviator - excellent claim, tough assignment for horse still eligible for NW1x allowance and post isn’t helpful either.
White Abarrio - desperately needs to get to the inside, perhaps Saez go on a mission to try to get to the top from the outside post? If he rates him and hangs out wide on the turns, he is headed for the last place saloon.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Cyberknife

🚨 BONUS RACE ⤵️

Ashley T Cole NYB $125,000 9f outer turf 3&up

Action Jackson - too slow
Jerry the Nipper - player here with Lezcano, always runs well, his lone turf race was a pretty good one and seems to have a pace advantage in a race with little pace.
Cold Hard Cash - bit off way more than he could chew last out in the Sword Dancer, has been running decent numbers but would need to improve to win.
Cross Border - sent to Brion to be converted into a jumper, was scheduled to run in a point to point race but winds up back at BAQ. Obviously she is showing confidence in showing up here but I’m not sure that a month in the country is enough to turn his form back around.
City Man - chased Emaraaty around the track on a wet closing day at the Spa in a soft edition of the Bernard Baruch (Gr III). Is consistently the fastest in here but a similar scenario might develop here if no one presses Jerry the Nipper. Does have good AQU record and is deserving favorite but we will try to beat him. His PP’s show him as being beaten the only three times he was favored.
Sanctuary City - got up in last strides on final Saturday card at Spa. Tough pace scenario for the confirmed closer.
Advanced Strategy - got brief freshening after dreadful effort at Belmont this summer. Has run fast enough to sneak on the board at a long price. Possible upsetter.

Going In Circles Digest

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