Packed Preps and the Champ is back
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🌹After a relatively disjointed Kentucky Derby trail that this particular three year old crop has mostly sleepwalked through, Saturday’s cross-country racing action should finally kick it up a notch. The ex-Baffert contenders have settled into their new barns (briefly for most), the Champ is back and the fields for all of this weekends 50 Derby point races are full (plus the Mike Battaglia from Turfway too). We preview the Fountain of Youth (Gr II), San Felipe (Gr II) and the Gotham (Gr III) below. All three offer terrific undercards as well with Gulfstream offering up breakfast bagels 🥯 with Pete Aiello with an 11am eastern first post.
📸 Props to Gary Palmisano, executive director of racing for CDI, for fixing the pan shot camera angle issue at Turfway in a timely manner. The wagering public asked, Gary and CDI answered.
🏆 The Racing Hall of Fame announced its finalists this week and to be honest when it comes to horses, a couple of what seem to be considered slam dunk candidates don’t resonate all that much with me. I will say that it’s past time for Corey Nakatani to be inducted though.
💉 Sid Fernando asked an interesting question in the TDN Wednesday about whether the oft-discussed SGF-1000 is actually a PED, a question that for some reason made a few industry type’s uncomfortable. Read what he had to say here and decide what you think.
😔 RIP to Alex Canchari. Young people dying is always tragic and it hits particularly hard when it’s someone that was as well liked as Alex. I have many strong feelings on the topic though out of respect I will withhold those thoughts until a more appropriate time, unlike some that chose to do otherwise. Here is a link to a GoFund me page that has been set up for his fiancé and three children for anyone that wishes to donate.
Fountain of Youth (Gr II) $400,000 1 1/16 3yo (50 KYD pts) GP
General Jim - SCRATCHED
Legacy Island - Blinkers off, Jamarillo on. Don’t think either change will determine this one’s fate in here as he just doesn’t seem to be this caliber. His main impact is what sort of pressure he applies to Mage though with the equipment change the connections may be thinking of taking him back off the pace. Might benefit from a cut back to 7f.
Shadow Dragon - Ran a 10.25 TG when second in the Holy Bull (Gr III) which tells you all you need to know about horses exiting that race. Yes he could move forward again but he still has a long way to get close to the top ones in here.
Forte - The Champ is here! Been working well at Palm Beach Downs for his season debut. Has three solid 5f works under his belt and may not be fully cranked for this start but he has a significant class and talent advantage over most of these. Pletcher’s runners have been firing, Irad has been putting on a daily riding clinic at GP and Forte’s style fits well against this group. Expect him to be placed in a stalking spot behind the early leaders, set to pounce on the turn. It’s not a real clever choice and he does have one race on his card where he didn’t break well, got lost in traffic and didn’t fire till it was too late (Sanford at the Spa) but he looms as the one to beat here by a decent margin.
Il Miracolo - as I said about his chances in the Holy Bull (Gr III) preview… “it will be”.
Blazing Sevens - The Kentucky Derby is an unforgiving mountain to climb and contenders without the requisite foundation rarely get the job done. While admitting that I have don’t know what this horses physical status coming out of the Breeders Cup was, I’d have liked to have seen him race three times this year prior to the Derby rather than twice. That said Blazing Sevens is talented and has proven to be fast, something that this year’s Derby trail has been mostly devoid of. The question for this race though is one of running styles, Forte is poised to get the jump on Blazing Sevens, who will likely wind up off of that one’s flank down the backside. In a short stretch race at GP, that favors Forte who is also ridden by the more aggressive Irad Ortiz. For sure this is not the ultimate goal and finishing second likely earns the son of Good Magic enough Derby points to get in. This is not exactly sage advice but he is the one horse that has shown to be talented enough to pull off the upset, a possibility but not a likely one.
Mage - cruised in his debut early on the Pegasus World Cup card going 7f. At first glance you’d toss him stepping up immediately into tough stakes competition (Forte and Blazing Sevens are real horses) off an uncontested maiden win. However Delgado has consistently shown to be a dangerous player in these Gulfstream prep races, often at huge odds. Majesto exited a maiden win before being second to Nyquist in the 2016 Florida Derby; Bodexpress was second behind Maximum Security in the 2019 Florida Derby at 71-1; last year O Captain went off at 87-1 when he was third in the Fountain of Youth. Mage doesn’t figure to be an extreme outsider like those three examples though, he will likely be single digit odds. He does possess early speed and I’d figure Castellano will use it to his advantage, either winding up on the front or pressing Legacy Island. I don’t think he is ready to beat even ‘not yet-100% cranked’ versions of Forte and Blazing Sevens but if he gets a comfortable trip he may be able to hang around for a piece.
Rocket Can - can he? He gets extra credit points for winning the Holy Bull (Gr III) while being 4 wide on both turns, a feat rarely accomplished at Gulfstream Park. That said, the 2023 version of the Holy Bull (Gr III) might turn up being one of it’s weakest, in the same category as forgettable names like Harvey Wallbanger in 2019, Winslow Homer in 2010, Saratoga Sinner in 2009 or Radical Riley back in 2001. Rocket Can received an 8 TG for the effort in that event, which is not terrible but tempered by the fact that he had extreme ground loss which surely signals that the raw time was way below par. In a prior era he’d be a complete underlay in here as the morning line maker would have likely listed him in the 4-1 range coming in off the stakes win over the track. 8-1 seems about right and while it is entirely possible that he improves here with a better trip, I wouldn’t take a penny less than that if I was inclined to play him (it’s unlikely that I will)
Cyclone Mischief - was a toss in the Holy Bull (Gr III) for us as his chief selling point was a big allowance win that came around one turn, under absolutely optimal conditions that were very unlikely to be duplicated. Our crystal ball happened to be right on that occasion but we weren’t expecting the non-effort that occurred. The son of Into Mischief never appeared to find a comfortable position and finally capitulated on the final turn. That said if you are looking for a horse at a price that may be able to sneak on the board, a cleaner trip might do the trick this time as outside of the obvious favorites, many of these are just plain slow.
Dangerous Ride - has never run a figure remotely close enough to being competitive with the favorites in here, isn’t bred to stretch out and has a bad post. The only thing that’s dangerous about him is you are placing your money in grave danger if you bet on him.
Gotham (Gr III) $300,000 1 mile 3yo (50 KYD pts) AQU
Clear the Air - Turfway shippers have not impressed on this years Derby trail and not expecting this guy to change that trend. He did get in some traffic trouble in his latest but he hasn’t run any figs remotely fast enough to get him in the mix here.
Howgreatisnate - undefeated Speightster (RIP) gelding launches his 3yo campaign here, stretching out to a mile for Simoff who is better known for shipping horses than training them. Has made impressive progress from TG 12.50 to 10.25 to 9.25 to 6.75 in his four starts as a two year old. Andy is batting 30% over the last 90 days, and ‘Nate figures to get good position down the long backside run with much of the speed on the outside. Not a huge fan of out of town jocks in these sort of situations but Acosta is capable veteran. If this gelding can handle the extra ground he looms as a player here at a decent price.
Mr Swagger - came out running, wearing down a loose leader in his debut win at 6.5 furlongs that got a strong figure (TG 7). Seems to have the talent to be a factor but does have some question marks. Macleans Music progeny are much better sprinting, his jockey Olivero is sort of a house rider with a good record but just doesn’t ride much (52 starts in 2022-23) and he didn’t see any dirt in his face in his only start. I’m probably not including him on my tickets but any improvement might make him a factor for owner, former MLB star Victor Martinez (easily the best former catcher in racing).
Uncorrelated - also began his career with a victory in an Aqueduct sprint, albeit on a sloppy track. Unlike Mr Swagger, he is by a sire (Arrogate RIP) whose progeny do much better stretching out as opposed to sprinting. Runner up in his debut win, Register, followed that up with a good second before breaking his maiden on February 18th, supporting the form of Uncorrelated’s win. Despite being on the inside from post 1 last he managed to not catch a lot of kickback, if he is rated behind the speed in this spot, that won’t be the case. It’s rarely spoken of when handicapping races but kickback is always an X factor until horses prove that they are willing to run through it (Julia Shining is a perfect example of one that isn’t). Obviously the connections are solid and I’d rate him a better chance of being in a money earning position than the similar horse directly to his inside.
Carmel Road - I have not been bullish on Baffert refugees not named Arabian Knight or Reincarnate and Carmel Road is one that fits neatly in the fade file. His win came against a suspect bunch at Del Mar, he bombed in his only venture outside of Southern California, he had no real excuse last out and is BB off. Cuts back to a one turn race which may be more of what he wants to do but hard to like at anything close to the 6-1 morning line.
General Banker - gritty NY bred makes a little run every time and so far has danced every dance on the Aqueduct road to the Derby. The cutback to one turn and a faster early pace should help but it feels a little like the point in the NCAA tourney when midnight strikes for the Cinderella teams and the big boys take over.
Transect - Lobo shipped a Turfway horse to run in the Rebel (Gr II) last week and now ships another one to run in the Gotham (Gr III) and has a runner in the Battaglia (L) at Turfway as well. This surely shows that he can develop young horses as they all have excellent records and good patterns. The issue is that they have all been too slow to make the jump to the big leagues and this is trend might continue here. I like the progression of a one turn mile off of two sprints better than the 2 turns and this son of Gun Runner has looked impressive in both starts. However beating up on the mixed bag that is a Turfway three year old race and tackling a 14 horse Gotham are two different animals.
Ft Warren - cross entered Monday in minor league stakes at Parx, this is a tougher group around one turn. Only one work since his last race Jan 29th at Santa Anita when still with Baffert. Russell has dazzling stats overall but is only 10% at Aqueduct with a 0.67 ROI and 7% in graded stakes. Tough to endorse.
Clubhouse - not your typical Pletcher early season three year old. Started off slow while racing on the turf, improved when switched to the dirt in November over this surface, tossed in a clunker in the slop, mauled slow maidens and then futilely chased Drew’s Gold in the Jimmy Winkfield in a decent effort. He did earn a 7 TG which is a slight improvement and he’d have to improve once again to be a factor here. I don’t particularly like him here but it would not surprise me if he clunked up and finished third at a long price.
Lugan Knight - connections wisely seem to be tempering misguided Derby dreams so far by keeping this Goldencents colt racing around one turn (He isn’t getting 10 furlongs). IMO he is the horse to beat here as he showed gameness when winning the Jerome over this track 56 days ago. He improved from TG 7.5 to 4 which is good enough to win this too. Was on the lead in that last one but has shown some versatility and being drawn toward the outside allows Davis the opportunity to see what the other speed’s intentions are. In Whitey McCarthy we trust.
Slip Mahoney - broke his maiden in try number three but has run super fast figs already (TG 3 last out). Has some tactical speed and drawing outside is a plus but has gotten really good, really fast and have to wonder if he may regress here, especially if he winds up super wide, losing ground on the turn if the field doesn’t spread itself out. Tough call in a very tough race but I’d lean against
Raise Cain - I don’t like him. Will admit that the Tapeta form doesn’t bother me as I’m willing to draw a line through it but he has been pretty erratic and a wide trip seems to be in the cards.
Eying Clover - two for two and both have been productive races with good performances coming from the runners up. Paired 6.5 TG figs and has every right to move forward from that. The issue is the same that several others face, what trip are they hoping to get? In both of his races at 6f he has shown early speed and you’d expect that they won’t change that too much but can he clear? Sometimes jocks/connections don’t use speed as an asset when stretching out, worrying about the extra ground which often is the wrong approach. Not saying that is likely here but rating and being hung 4-5 wide on the turn just adds to the ground needed to be covered. Cox does well everywhere but he has been supernatural at FG where this horse ships in from. I will probably let him beat me here, the logic being the colt may very well run even better but not get a great placing because of a tough trip at a short price.
Recruiter - yet another horse with an excellent record (undefeated in four starts) stretching out in distance while making their graded stakes debut. Cal Lynch does solid work and this horse came out running and hasn’t stopped, improving to a TG of 3.5 when taking down the Parx Juvenile in his latest. Showed a stalking dimension in that race and Angel Cruz will have to work to find him a good position though there is a long run from the starting gate to the turn. Man…too bad we don’t see more races like this…
Radio Red - needs a little help to draw in. Showed improved early speed in his last which was his first try of three on a fast track. Did run a solid fig last out but he has improved a great deal in a short time and plateauing is the most likely result (and that won’t be good enough)
San Felipe (Gr II) $400,000 1 1/16 3yo (50 KYD pts)
Chase the Chaos - won the El Camino Real last out, earning him a ‘free entry’ to the Preakness. Trainer Moger seems like he wants to find out if he should be thinking of the race a couple weeks before. Bad news for him though…he is VERY slow.
National Treasure - He is pretty good but I feel about him like I did about Messier last year (this isn’t a compliment). Seems to run to his competition as he lurks but never really threatens late in races. I will continue to fade him in the top spot.
Practical Move - interesting that he is a Chad Brown-Sol Kumin bred. Won the Los Al Futurity last out as an actual Tim Yakteen trainee. Earned an excellent fig for a December 2yo in doing so (3.75 TG) and looms as the one to beat here. Can sit a good trip with his tactical speed and showed last out he can finish too.
Bluegrass Go Go - Bluegrass No No if you are considering betting him
Genius Jimmy - we are unabashed fans of McCarthy but this guy is stretching our loyalty thin. He is improving and he does have some dirt breeding but tough to endorse outside of perhaps a minor share
Crypto Ride - he just doesn’t seem good enough
Hejazi - another Baffert refugee that lands in Yakteen’s shed row. Took four starts to break his maiden and he isn’t any faster on TG now than he was in August. His only two turn race wasn’t spectacular and after cutting back to break his maiden, he stretches back out here. He not all that jazzy to me.
Geaux Rocket Ride - always respect when Mandella gets aggressive and straight to the San Felipe from a first time maiden win qualifies. His stats in 1st time route and sprint to route numbers are strong, with large sample sizes too. How about 20% and 21% with spectacular $2.21 and $2.18 ROI’s from sample sizes of 181 and 285 races. Figures to be forwardly placed or perhaps even be on the lead, and he may or may not be good enough to complete the task but it won’t because he wasn’t well meant.
Fort Bragg - of the former Baffert entires, this is the one I like the best but it’s not as though I love him. He got in a lot of trouble last out and off the brief freshening with a couple of bullet works in the holster, may be ready to move forward.
Skinner - the last time he ran a big figure he bounced and is now coming off of another huge move plus is wheeling back in 20 days, meaning regression is likely. A wide draw doesn’t help as he probably will lose ground on the first turn unless he is taken way back off the pace. Imagine me saying this in my best Ivan Drago from Rocky IV voice… “If he beats me, he beats me”.
Mr Fisk - unheralded Baffert refugee is not helped by the post and he hasn’t shown that he is quite fast enough yet. Probably named after someone’s math teacher, not the great Carlton Fisk (who would be the best former catcher in racing, if he was in racing)
A memorable Gotham Stakes from 1989 and another two year old champion finding his way on that seasons Derby trail, though his didn’t not ultimately lead to a win on the first Saturday in May but did kick off a legendary rivalry
No horse in history in March of their 3yo year could beat Easy Goer that day. And very few in their lifetime would even be competitive.
☑️