One day of relevance (PA Derby Day)
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Horseracing racing in the greater Philadelphia metro area has been operating since 1963 when the now defunct Liberty Bell Park opened its doors. In 1974 Keystone Racetrack opened in Bensalem and all thoroughbred racing shifted to the new track. In 1980 Keystone changed hands, the new owners, ITB, decided to rename the track, Philadelphia Park, added a turf course and debuted an innovative, new off track betting system called Phonebet. In 1990 a pair of British bookmakers operating as Greenwood Racing purchased the track from ITB, built six local OTB outlets and began full card simulcasting which was in its infancy at that time. In 2010 Philadelphia Park was renamed again, this time to Parx Racing and Casino after the success of local hero, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones paved the way for racino’s to be allowed in Pennsylvania.
For all the innovation that was born there and despite the massive amounts of revenues that flowed to racing from the highly successful casino, the racing game at Parx has never truly blossomed. Oh the purses have ensured that the locals have done far better financially than in the pre-casino days. Sure the grade 1 Cotillion and Pennsylvania Derby have earned their status as the last major three year old dirt races and important Breeders Cup preps. There is no doubt that the quality of runners overall at Parx is superior to what was racing there in the early 2000’s. Yet it’s still looked at as a B- or C level track, no big outfits have set up shop, none of the jockeys are household names and the training crew is a mixed bag of a longtime veterans, strictly locals and a fair amount of questionable suspects. Though the rates have been lowered to the “high normal” category, the unreasonable takeout percentages caused Parx to head the list of tracks that major bettors regularly ignore.
Annually under attack from various state politicians looking to divert the horseman’s share of the slots revenue (interestingly they never ask for any of the tracks cut despite it being significantly greater) Pennsylvania racing has shrugged those off so far but there are valid questions that need answering. One is why doesn’t Parx try to take advantage of its location, huge flow of revenues from slots and a loyal, dedicated group of owners and trainers to make wagering on its product more palatable? Slash the takeout rates to lower than average, police the backside/jocks room so the results have more legitimacy and market these two items to a wagering public starving for a new year round circuit to plow money into. Does management care enough to try? Is there any new leadership emerging from the horseman’s group to support making things better and vastly more sustainable? Every time I look at past performances from Parx (albeit not often) all I see is wasted opportunity. Put it this way and this includes all of PA racing, not just Parx, if I gave you two billion dollars and told you to develop a statewide racing program and what now exists is your answer…well no wonder the politicians come for the money every year.
Undercard Stakes
Plum Pretty Stakes - Lupe Precidao is a veteran trainer that certainly knows what he is doing. He has guided Chub Wagon through eight career starts and she has come away victorious in seven of them. That said this spot makes zero sense. She is the second fastest female sprinter in America on her best day and is coming off her top race where she got -1.5 TG figure. That number is far better than any figure ever earned by last weeks one-two finishers in the Open Mind at Churchill Downs, Sconsin and Bells the One. Add to the fact that she has to carry a ridiculous 128 pounds, trying two turns at this juncture of her career is odd. Perhaps she isn’t Breeders Cup nominated but if she is she should be heading west as only Gamine has been consistently faster.
Parx Dirt Mile - Silver State will be the headliner here but is a strong play against at a short price in this spot. He got ideal pace scenarios and trips in his two biggest wins, the Oaklawn Handicap and Met Mile and while there seems to be plenty of speed in here, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t wide, perhaps on both turns. Silver State isn’t all that fast, his lifetime top on TG is a 3/4 and others in here are just as or faster. He also has to give a few pounds to other contenders and with Parx track surface likely not playing like it normally does (big day phenomenon) we are looking elsewhere. The two logical horses should get great trips from inside posts, West Will Power and Mind Control. The former is a late developer that might be ready to finally put it all together and he picks up Luis Saez which is a big plus. The latter has had success at the mile distance earlier in her career prior to him cutting back to a sprint schedule and any of his best races puts him in the winners circle here and likely gets him an invite to the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.
Greenwood Cup Gr.3 - Moretti is the logical morning line favorite in this spot as he comes with high profile connections and having had previous stakes winning marathon victories to his credit. We will be looking elsewhere though as he has not been as good in 2021 as he was in 2020 and at a short price we will be fading him. The locals look like they are super live in this spot with starter handicap kingpin Sheer Flattery looming as a interesting play depending of course on his odds. At anything near 6-1 morning line we will get involved as his raging current form, tactical speed and dropping 8 pounds from his last give him appeal with his ability to get the 1 1/2 distance the biggest question. Looking at Roses and Shooger Ray Too as others we are interested in.
Turf Monster Gr.3 - Turf Sprints aren’t our thing but this looks like another place to try to beat the chalk. Caratari is 9/2 on the morning line but is our top pick here coming off a tough beat in the Troy at Saratoga. The third place finisher in that race, Gear Jockey, came back to win the lucrative Fan Duel Sprint race at Kentucky Downs and the winner of the Troy was a tough trip fourth in that spot.
Gallant Bob Gr. 2 - The surprise entry of Jackie’s Warrior made this race more watchable and at the same time pretty unplayable as the tepid field lined up to face him is hard to separate. While there is always danger when a horse comes out of a huge figure war like the Allen Jerkens, Asmussen seems to have found a pretty soft spot to prep his star sprinter for the Breeders Cup.
Cotillion Gr. 1 - An excellent race of which The Sniper said “anyone can win”. The leader of the division, Malathaat is not here but most of the other top three year old fillies have been entered into this important Breeders Cup Distaff prep. Here is a quick rundown of the field:
🌼 Obligatory tries two turns again after throwing in a clunker in her only attempt. Last out just got too far behind and raced flat in the Test and I wonder if there is enough pace to suit her late run
🌼Allworthy also stretches out to two turns after having had little run in her only other attempt. Exits an ‘against the bias’ 3rd place finish at Charlestown, but her trainer has cooled off considerably north of the Mason-Dixon Line so we will likely pass on her.
🌼 Will’s Secret ran really well in the Ashland and Kentucky Oaks finishing third in both but threw in 2 straight clunkers in Indiana and last out in the Alabama. Cuts back to 1 1/16 here and her best puts her in the mix to hit the board but you need to demand a huge price to use her.
🌼Maracuja ran an unbelievable race when winning the Coaching Club American Oaks but followed that up with a complete non-effort in the Alabama. Reunites with former Parx leading rider Carmouche but hard to figure and has only run one race fast enough to win.
🌼Army Wife had taken the road less traveled route to the Alabama via Pimlico and Prairie Meadows but it paid off with a solid third place finish in Saratoga. She jumped up to a 3 on TG which is a number that can win this race.
🌼 Clairiere ran well in the Alabama when second to Malathaat but the cutback in distance and lack of solid pace may work against her in this spot. Asmussen wins 31% at Parx but 2-1 seems like a short price to take on a filly with her one run style.
🌼 Always Carina is an interesting contender here in her first two turn race. The 1 1/16 is within her scope and the Malibu Moon filly might be better suited to this type of race. She has run numbers fast enough to to win and should be a tempting price as the controlling speed
🌼 Leader of the Band is a local filly that is taking a step up in class here but is in excellent form. Her biggest issue is her style as she is another that lags early and finishes strong but at a huge price she could be played to get a piece.
Pennsylvania Derby Gr. 1 $1000000 1 1/8
Fulsome - Winner of the Matt Winn and the local prep, the Smarty Jones, he looks to be more a member of the B team than the top horses in the division. Only has one race that would win this and is more likely to be a lower price than his fair market value.
Keepmeinmind - scratched
Speakers Corner - the wise guy horse comes into this off a blowout 7 furlong allowance win at Saratoga in his first start since last October. While he looks to be an immensely talented colt, this is a lot to ask him to do in his first stakes appearance and his first route race and he is also likely to be a shorter price than he should given the two scratches.
Weyburn - would think that he would show speed after drawing inside with Paco aboard. Just missed when second to Mandaloun in the Monmouth version of the Pegasus when he pressed the pace. Last out in the Jim Dandy he got an impossible trip while chasing wide to eventual Travers winner Essential Quality. Has been sitting on 3’s on TG and any improvement while saving ground gives him a solid shot of hitting the board here.
I Am Redeemed - Local horse seems a cut below the best in here.
Bourbonic - parlayed a 2nd place finish in a starter allowance over this same surface earlier this year into a last to first win in the Wood Memorial. Has not fared well since that win, though clunking up for 3rd in the West Virginia Derby in his latest was far better than his KY Derby or Belmont non-efforts.
Hot Rod Charlie - Found controversy when finishing first in the Haskell, cutting off Midnight Bourbon and forcing that one to stumble and fall, leading to his DQ. Despite getting his number taken down, the Haskell was another big effort for the Oxbow colt after consecutive big efforts in the La Derby, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Set to get a stalking trip, he is clearly the one to beat here.
Midnight Bourbon - ran well in the Travers getting rundown late by division leader Essential Quality. He set a glacial pace in that race, which is something that doesn’t seem to be in the cards here. He also has never passed a horse so if he doesn’t find himself on the lead cutting slow fractions it’s hard to see him running well.
Medina Spirit - scratched
Americanrevolution - Improving NY bred colt dusted state-breds when winning his third in a row. Look for him to stalk the pace though the post seems like it may cause some ground loss which is an issue.
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