Once Again…The First Saturday in May

Real Writing on Racing 💯

It’s been a long time coming but Kentucky Derby day has finally arrived. We didn’t do any previews other than the big race but we are also particularly interested in the 3rd race (post time 11:31 am) at Churchill, a loaded allowance race with several talented 3yo prospects that we will likely be hearing from later this summer. Best of luck to all!

🐎 Jessica Tugwell does a great job on pedigree/bloodstock analysis on her Hawkstone Bloodstock Substack and for the Derby, she takes a horse by horse look at the pedigrees of entire field here.

😞 RIP to Tim Kegel a genuinely good guy who I met years ago when he was a jockeys agent at Churchill.

🎪 The Saratoga Special has a special Derby Day edition.

💰Barry goes green as his RCNGhub play of the day is in race 11 which is Turf Classic (Gr I) trying to get you some extra ammo for the big race 💵

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Kentucky Derby (Gr I) $5,000,000 3yo 1 1/4 (Race 12)

1. Dornuch - post one forces the hand of the connections as they have no choice but to ask jockey Luis Saez to leave the starting gate as fast as possible and try to get to the lead, a spot where he is most comfortable. That is a tricky task in itself but he hasn’t flattered himself in his pair of races this year. Neither his workmanlike win over a subpar group in the Fountain of Youth (Gr II) nor his dull effort in the Bluegrass (Gr I) instills much confidence that he is ready to fire a huge shot, which he will need to do as his speed figs have plateaued since last October.

2. Sierra Leone - Gun Runner colt has been a buzz horse since he walked into the auction ring as a yearling at Saratoga in August of 2022, where he was hammed down at $2.3 million price tag. His racing career has been one of huge, sweeping sustained rallies from the back of the pack, a running style that garners a lot of attention yet requires some assistance in the form of decent early fractions and a clear path forward. His last to first power move in the Bluegrass (Gr I) was impressive enough to have some believe he’d be the Derby favorite and was done in spite of his uncharacteristic rowdy behavior prior to loading in the starting gate. The long striding colt did get some assistance as the early fractions were rated as very hot by TimeformUS pace ratings and the field spread out nicely in front of him as well. He can win but taking short prices on horses that will likely have to pass 15 or more horses is fraught with danger.

3. Mystik Dan - A funny thing happened on the way to the Derby for this colt…prior to the Southwest (Gr III) he looked like he might be competing on Kentucky Derby day in an allowance race as his two efforts after breaking his maiden weren’t exactly powerful efforts. However one thing that trainer Ken McPeek isn’t afraid of is taking a shot in stakes and undeterred he went ahead and put him in the Southwest (Gr III) where jockey Brian Hernandez changed tactics, took him back off the early leaders and stuck to the rail. It paid off as he skipped over the sloppy track and left field gasping for air with an 8 length win. His third place finish in his subsequent start in the Arkansas Derby (Gr I) was better than it looks on paper as he was caught wide both turns and the race had little flow to it which makes it difficult for a horse coming from the back of the pack. The Golden Cents colt has a pedigree that is a little light stamina-wise but I thought the same of Thorpedo Anna so…

4. Catching Freedom - The son of Constitution started out his career good and he has gotten better, coming from last to take down the Louisiana Derby (Gr II) in his final Derby prep. He has sometimes lost focus in races and has also been a little late with his lead changes but has improved in that fashion though in a 20 horse field it may crop up again. I like to bet Derby horses that are getting better and have to peak and his TG pattern suggest that he may be sitting on his best perfomance yet. The same caveats about early pace and traffic issues apply but you will get a much better price on him than you will on Sierra Leone and in our estimation, there isn’t much difference between the two.

5. Catalytic - there is an old saying that some horses are ‘here for the season and some are here for the reason’. I believe that this son of Catalina Cruiser is here because the connections figured the Kentucky Derby might be a good time….for them, not for their horse who seems overmatched.

6. Just Steel - this son of Justify has danced many, many dances and is still producing good performances. Arguably the fittest entrant in the field with four 2024 starts plus a rarely seen 1 mile workout on April 20. Honestly I don’t have any idea how he is going to run but a win by the tag team of the 80 something trainer Wayne Lukas and the 25 year old jockey with a masters degree in accounting, Keith Asmussen, son of the all-time winningest trainer Steve would be one of the all-time great sports stories.

7. Honor Marie - There are several positives in this Honor Code colt’s corner when it comes to the 2024 Kentucky Derby. First among them is that his pedigree is a lot better suited for stamina than most of this 20 horse group. Honor Marie loves the track at Churchill with all three of his races over the surface being good ones. His final work was excellent and jockey Ben Curtis, a recent English import, has extensive experience in riding overseas in bulky fields, something that we don’t see on this side of the pond often. His speed figures are trending in the right direction and while he will have to improve to have a chance to beat these, at a decent price (currently 12-1) he has a fighting chance.

8. Just a Touch - Lightly raced colt by Justify, he exit’s a solid effort in the Bluegrass (Gr I) where he attended a quick early pace, opening up a clear lead turning for home before being reeled in by Sierra Leone late. Has run excellent TG figs in all three of his races but all also came under relatively favorable scenarios where jock Geroux was able to place him exactly where he wanted to. With so many potential pace players on his outside, Geroux has one of two choices to make leading the starting gate. First is to send hard, hope Dornoch grabs the lead and take up a stalking postion on his flank. His other option is to use his speed tactically through the lane the first time, be forwardly placed but also perhaps wind up behind horses and taking kickback for the first time. How things go from there is a mystery, which is why we run the races but I’m guessing that his trip doesn’t wind up being ideal and he tires late from his early efforts.

9. Encino - Scratched

10. T O Password (Jpn) - We don’t know a whole lot about this son of Copano Rickey (Jpn) who exited the Japan road to the Derby by winning the Fukuryu Stakes in late March. We do know that he worked really well this week over the track and that Japanese horses should merit the utmost respect as they have proven time and time again when winning major international events in Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, Dubai and at the Breeders Cup domestically. It’s a very tough task for any horse to win the Kentucky Derby after just two starts but he has shown good speed before and his impact may come in the form of being part of a rapid early tempo. His connections claim that he can rate but after watching his stablemate being sent on a kamikaze mission in todays Alysheba Stakes (Gr II) and lasting for the place money, I’m skeptical that he isn’t going to be ridden in a similar fashion.

11. Forever Young (Jpn) - Undefeated colt by Real Steel (Jpn) after five starts, three in Japan and two in the Middle East. He is trained by one of the best in Japan, Yoshito Yahagi, who has already successfully pulled off a couple huge wins in America when he won the Breeders Cup Distaff and Filly and Mare Turf in 2021. Employing unusual training tactics since arriving at CD has some observers concerned but I tend to trust Yahagi, who has plotted this course for the colt since last fall. He isn’t great coming away from the gate which could be an issue when looking to find good position, but he is gritty and with a pedigree full of stamina influences you never know what might happen? At some point the Japanese are going to start targeting more of our major races and they are going to win their fair share…at least. It may not be the Kentucky Derby this year but they are coming and unlike Chuck Appleby and Aiden O’Brien, they have dirt horses too.

12. Track Phantom - Son of Quality Road is a good horse but stamina issues appear real and the addition of blinkers paired with the odd Asmussen comment that they didn’t have to be on the lead, after being there in each of his seven starts, it all just seems like he is going to wind up a casualty of a rapid early pace battle.

13. West Saratoga - There won’t be a single person upset if this guy pulls off the shocker for veteran trainer Larry Demeritte, in likely his one and only shot. However he isn’t really fast enough, he might wind up getting used too much staying close to the early leaders and it would be a stunner if he is around at the end.

14. Endlessly - son of excellent young sire Oscar Performance has done all of his work on grass and synthetics and the reaction of his trainer and jockey post Jeff Ruby Steaks win tells me all I need to know about what they think his chances are on the dirt.

15. Domestic Product - Is he the male version of Regulatory Risk? A Chad Brown runner with slow figures coming out of low rated races worked in the Oaks but this colt has an unusual number of backers. For me he is just a grinder and I don’t see all the closing speed that many seem to believe that he possesses. Let’s be honest, this isn’t a strong crop of three year olds overall, and this one is among the slowest in here. If he hits the board, I will lose.

16. Grand Mo the First - Uncle Mo colt actually ran the best race in the bizarro world Tampa Bay Derby and if you switched the trainer and jockey with Domestic Product, this guy would be the ‘wise guy’ horse. That said tough trip looms for him and I’m not convinced he wants 10 furlongs.

17. Fierceness - He is the fastest horse in this crop and his A game has been overwhelming for his rivals when it comes. I have a theory that the Holy Bull (Gr II) disappointment was due to not only a troubled trip but a horse that may have not been as fit as his trainer believed he was. Pletcher noticeably cranked harder on him leading up to the Florida Derby and the results speak for themselves. His work last week was very good and while there has been some paranoia over the condition of his feet, personally I’m not concerned. A ton of things can go wrong in any race and he isn’t a cinch because of that reality but if he gets a Thorpedo Anna type trip, he will be tough to rein in.

18. Stronghold - He hasn’t done a whole lot wrong but his TG figs are light, I don’t think he beat much in his two 2024 preps and with the wide draw, jockey Antonio Fresu has his work cut out for him. Ghostzapper colt never runs bad but he may find himself a lot further back than is typical for him and every time I look at his pedigree, Jimmy Creed as the broodmare sire jumps out at me as he sure isn’t a stamina influence.

19. Resilience - The Into Mischief colt isn’t that different than Stronghold as an improving sort that’s moored wide and yet still has to find away to run the best race of his life from out there. Mott has him trending in the right direction but a tough trip seems more likely than not.

20. Society Man - ran a bang up race in the Wood when second, earning his way into the field. Not to sound like a broken record but another that has to figure out how to not loose too much ground while also not getting shuffled back to 14th. Frankie Dettori is the right guy to try to figure it out but I’m not expecting much from the Good Magic gelding.

21. Epic Ride - drew in when Encino was scratched. Blame colt did some good work over the winter at Turfway and ran reasonably well in the Bluegrass when he was a non-threatening 3rd. Not sure of their plan but they may try to break alertly and follow Fierceness which may be easier said than done.

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🏇🏻 Mike Mutnansky from the MutStack had a back & forth conversation about the Derby field, offering out thoughts on all the entrants

150th Running of the Kentucky Derby
1 1/4 MILES
6:57 EST NBC

1. Dornoch (20-1) 
Mut: The first of two for trainer Danny Gargan looked good last year but does not appear to have made a big move forward as a three-year-old. Is going to have to go from the rail and hard to see him impacting the race outside of being a pace player. Look forward to an eventual cutback in distance this summer. 

Chuck: Little known fact: I saved Danny Gargan’s life about 20 years ago on the backside of Tampa Bay Downs. He was working as a jockey agent and had raised the ire of a fellow agent named Frank the Greek, a connected guy from Detroit who carried a Louisville Slugger in the truck of his Caddy… and it wasn’t because he played softball in his spare time. Anyway, one morning at about 5:30 am Frank pulled up outside the barn looking for Danny and he was quite agitated, especially for that time of the day. When he went to his trunk to get the bat, I thought “Oh this might be a problem” so I went outside to try to talk to him off the ledge. At the same time, Danny had wandered out of my office and was now looking to get as far away from the bat-wielding Greek as he could. Frank was shouting “Where is he?” so I said “Hey we can take care of this without you taking batting practice on his head” and he said to me “I have no quarrel with you but your friend has pushed me over the edge”. Understatement of the year lol. Anyway, I got Frank to agree to not use Detroit mob tactics on Danny (at least that day) when I told him I’d find him a couple of mounts from my barn to even the score, the Louisville Slugger went back to its hiding spot in the trunk of the Caddy, and Danny lived to train two horses in this years Kentucky Derby. 

As for Dornoch, he hasn’t really developed as you said and with post 1, Saez has no choice but to gun to the lead and let the chips fall where they may. I’m guessing they will start falling around the second turn when he pays the price for setting rapid fractions. 

Mut: Chuck Simon...the mediator! 

I hope he at least bought you a beer or something. 

2. Sierra Leone (3-1) 
Mut: I don't know if you have any good Chad Brown stories you want to share, but he has a player in Derby 150. The big-kick closer will be flying late - but will likely have to navigate some major traffic to get there. Benefited from a huge pace in the Blue Grass and maybe he gets it again, but at 3-1, I'm not running to the windows to bet that everything goes his way. Talented. One of the likelier winners...but the trip and the price are not appealing. You've talked on your show about the way he reacted to the crowd at Keeneland - is that a factor in how you look at his chances later today? 

Chuck: No stories, but I’m with you on being wary of taking one-run closers at short prices as there is so much that can happen in a race for horses with that style, and it’s almost all bad. Yes, the pace figures to be lively and if he can get a clean trip, doesn’t get trapped down inside, no one gets in the way or veers in front of him or bumps him, he can certainly win. Yet that is a lot to ask in a 20-horse field with some dubious contenders when trying to come from 18th down the backside and at a relatively short price, I’m looking elsewhere. 

3. Mystic Dan (20-1) 
Mut: His one fast race going long came when he benefited from a sweet rail trip at Oaklawn. Heard some suggestions this week jockey Brian Hernandez will try and get a good spot inside and take the shortest route home. Even if he does that, a minor award seems like his ceiling. Unlikely to be on my tickets. But my dad's name is Dan so....

Chuck: When it comes to the Derby, name handicapping has paid off well recently, when every dude named Rich or Richie scored out on Rich Strike. Mystic Dan is a strange case because prior to his big win in the Southwest he was barely a blip on the radar. Yes, the mud may have helped that day but he didn’t get a great trip in the Ark Derby and still salvaged an on-the-board finish. I’m not a big proponent of his sire Goldencents at 10 furlongs but I suppose he could be a use to spice up underneath in exotic wagers 

4. Catching Freedom (8-1) 
Mut: A deep closer with speed figures trending in the right direction. Closed like a freight train at Fairgrounds without the super-sonic pace Sierra Leone enjoyed - and he'll be 3x the price of that one. Prat has already had big Derby success and SuperTrainer™️ Brad Cox always seems to have his horses ready on big days. Huge shot to hit the board and a win candidate for me. 

Chuck: Good points! I have been a member of his bandwagon all season and believe that not only is he talented, but he’s improving. The main issue beyond a deep closing style (see Sierra Leone) is that he just rarely runs in a straight line and is often late with lead changes. The likely culprit is him simply losing focus but that’s a concern in a race where there is not only 19 other horses and jockeys to contend with but a packed grandstand with 160k screaming people. I’m using him but defensively. 

5. Catalytic (30-1) 
Mut: He just followed Fierceness around there last time. His two races before that were not fast. They earned the right to be here, but strong pass for me. Following up on the "160k screaming people" you have mentioned the big crowd here and on your podcast. Does it factor into your handicapping? 

Chuck: This year’s Soup and Sandwich-lite, which is not a compliment. 10 furlongs is a tough hill to climb for many of these and this colt in particular doesn’t figure to want any bit of that. The big crowd is one of those variables that is difficult to assess unless you know that a horse is known to lose focus or be a little nervous in general. Of course, I selected one of those types to win the Oaks so…

6. Just Steel (20-1) 
Mut: Sometimes you have to go with your gut. And while my gut says this horse has no chance to win the Derby, I will probably use underneath because he's one of the few who looks like he has the foundation to be okay going a mile and a quarter. D. Wayne has run this guy into shape. So my gut says he can't win, but it also says I'm scared to death he hits the bottom of the board at a price. #handicapping. 

Chuck: I’m with you on Just Steel. He has danced all the dances which is a positive in my eyes as fitness sure shouldn’t be an issue. Lukas horses are very hard to gauge and a glance at this guys past performances gives you a good example why. Won’t use on top but also not gonna let him beat me by sneaking up the rail and being third either.

7. Honor Marie (20-1) 
Mut: Not familiar with the work of Kentucky native and trainer Whit Beckman but he has a horse people are talking about. It felt like early in the week this was he Derby "wiseguy" horse. Will be closing and with the right trip is a trifecta player. (Update - Live odds around 12-1 off the 20-1 ML so taking some $$).

Chuck: The word from the backside is that the regulation vets put the horse through the wringer this afternoon (Thursday) including a battery of tests that Honor Marie all passed. Whether the KGB…oh I mean KY Vets let him run or not is a different story. If he is in the gate Saturday night, I expect him to run well. 

Mut: I'd really prefer the KY vets not be a story this weekend. 

8. Just a Touch (10-1) 
Mut: After Mage won this race last year off just three career races, maybe people will be more willing to bet this talented son of Justify. And there is real talent here - I'll let Chuck touch on it but his Blue Grass is better than it looks. Has been reportedly training well heading in. Can he get that second-flight trip off the main speed? If he can and the bright lights of the Derby aren't too much for him, he could win this year's Derby. Win candidate for me. 

Chuck: He did race into the teeth of a very quick pace in the Bluegrass but I’m skeptical that he is going to wind up getting a little too close to a potential swift pace and not have enough left to hold off the closers or potentially not be able to reach Fierceness. Just a gut reaction but he has more of a Kingsbarns feel to him than a Mage feel. 

9. Encino - SCRATCHED 

10. T O Password (30-1) 
Mut: Can't even find the tape of his maiden win. The race he won to qualify for this he was on the lead. Worked out in under :47 this week which signals he has speed. Reportedly "skittish" on track during workouts. All those words to say I have no idea what we get from this guy but he's gotta be a favorite to finish dead last in this Derby. 

Chuck: It’s funny because I found some Japanese racing “experts” (props to Google translate), that actually prefer him to his country mate Forever Young. I really have no idea what he is going to do since after that work the other days his jockey (who rides regularly at Woodbine) said that they think he can sit mid pack. A total mystery. 

11. Forever Young (10-1)
Mut: At some point, a horse from Japan will win the Derby. Heading into the 150th edition, winners of the UAE Derby that have tried the Kentuck Derby - all 19 of them - have finished off the board. History is not on his side. BUT.. this is not a great group he's meeting today. He's run fast. He's shown good finish. Of course, he reportedly does not like kickback and that might be an issue. Has kind of a weird leg action when he runs. 

Chuck: He is a good horse and has won 5 races in 3 different countries so it’s not like he is a fluke. That said, Forever Young has a lot to overcome, the travel alone (Japan to Saudi to Dubai to Kentucky) is a lot. Of all the entrants, I feel confident in his pedigree to handle the distance best and the Japanese horses are winning major races worldwide so it’s probably coming soon…but perhaps not this year 

12. Track Phantom (20-1) 
Mut: Hall of Fame trainer puts blinkers on but then says the horse does not have to go to the lead. Can blinkers help a horse rate? Can he really win rating anyway? Does he want to go this far? Why is this all questions? Talent here but a pass for me. 

Chuck: I don’t like his chances with or without blinkers. I know it’s blasphemous but he could have won the Preakness if he skipped this spot

13. West Saratoga (50-1) 
Mut: Will likely show speed and take money from all Chuck's friends who live in West Saratoga. The best spot on the West Side is The Local. Love that place. Oh yeah, he's also the lone grey horse in this field, if you bet on all the grey horses. 

Chuck: The West Side Sports bar (owned by noted racing photographer Dave Harmon) might have an argument to top West Saratoga spot. As for the horse, great story but he has to run way, way better than he has.   

14. Endlessly (30-1) 
Mut: Michael McCarthy has a pair in the American Turf. This one should be running there, too. Has never tried dirt and is bred for turf. I'd probably do the same thing if I owned a horse that qualified for the Derby, but no shot today. 

Chuck: The owners of Endlessly can experiment with running him on the dirt if they so choose but the trainer and jockey were pretty adamant that he wasn’t a dirt horse and I believe them 

15. Domestic Product (30-1) 
Mut: I'm gonna lose some money using this guy as a price player. Lightly raced. Slow. Off since March 9! BUT...has closed into super slow paces, is reportedly training very well and I get Chad/Irad at something near 30-1. And he's the Other Chad. Underneath price play for me. I know you love these long layoffs into the Derby, Chuck.... 

Chuck: After I was totally wrong about almost everything in the Oaks (Thank You Just FYI from keeping me from totally missing the board) including the “other Chad” running third…I’m still against this slowpoke. 

Mut: Just F Y I ran well from the 13! Also, slop, so bad ideas don't count. 

16. Grand Mo The First (50-1) 
Mut: Took a big bump early in that Florida Derby, but he was never winning. Yeah, he's the 6-1 favorite to finish last in the Derby. Hard to argue. That's all I got. Meanwhile, I just touted a horse that was right with this one at the Tampa finish line. 

Chuck: Seems like one of those horses that when you look back a few years from now you are amazed that they ran in the Kentucky Derby when they are running in 30k claimers at Laurel. I’m passing on the entire state of Florida in this years Derby…except for maybe one exception and it won’t be Grand Mo 

17. Fierceness (5/2) 
Mut: I'm guessing this is your Fla Derby "maybe.” As I wrote two weeks ago, you're either with him or against him. I'm going to be with Team Repole here. I think this narrative that he "needs things his own way" is overblown.

Legit trouble in the Champagne and as you have noted, probably short in the Holy Bull. It is annoying that Eric Ride gets in and might be involved early from the outside, but I trust Johnny V. Camp seems super confident, training up a storm and is fastest on paper. I'd be happy with the ML 5/2 and if any of these is going to crush today, it's this one. 

Chuck: I meant the entire state including the Tampa preps as well. Using your Sherlock Holmes detective skills, you have figured out my exception to the FL ban. He is really good but he’s also flawed enough to give many pause before they’ll drop a stack of hundreds on his nose. His best race destroys this group and yes it’s the Kentucky Derby and yes it’s a regular occurrence that various horses don’t always run their best races here but he has run some frighteningly fast races. I foresee a similar trip to what Thorpedo Anna got in the Oaks and we see what happened there. Admittedly he is still a little bit of a scary proposition due to his occasional gate tardiness so I won’t be betting the house but IMO he is the most likely winner. 

18. Stronghold (20-1) 
Mut: I have always been more Matlock than Holmes. As we get towards the race, I realize I am not giving this one enough of a look. It's my bias against the CA horses. His wins have come against the second and third-tier three-year-olds. But he's paired up top Beyers and comes in third off the layoff for a sharp trainer. Looks a little slow and hard to make the trip for him, but he's not impossible to get into the super or Hi-5. 

Chuck: I’m more like Jim Rockford (dating myself)! I have a personal rooting interest as Stronghold’s trainer Phil D’Amato’s first job on the racetrack was working for me at Churchill Downs about 20 years ago. While I am certainly rooting for him, I’m skeptical of the two Derby preps he won this year in New Mexico and S. California and every time I look at his pedigree, Jimmy Creed (his dam’s sire) jumps out at me and not in a good way. 

19. Resilience (20-1) 
Mut: I  would watch "The Simon Files." Resilience is very similar to Stronghold. Pace #s, Beyers, running style. We liked him in the Wood and Bill Mott is one of the best. But like Stonghold, feels a notch below some of these top three-year-olds. Johnny V off never feels good, but was part of that good Risen Star. Underneath usable. 

Chuck: If I don’t start cashing some tickets I might have to find some freelance PI work to get me ready for the Saratoga Belmont. Agree with your sentiments on Resilience. Nice colt that is moving in the right direction but it’s hard to envision a trip where he doesn’t wind up wide on the turns or back further in the field than he usually sits. Junior did a nice job on Just FYI in finding a palatable trip from the outside, he needs repeat that effort which is even more complicated from post 18. 

20. Society Man (50-1)
Mut: Yep, using underneath. My idea - Dornoch has to go from the inside. This OTHER Gargan with Dettori up makes a beeline for the rail. Tries to take the shortest trip around there. Always been pointed longer. Worked right with Dornoch last time. But you saved Danny's life once, you tell me what's going to happen. 

Chuck: I missed the wedding in the Wood and I have to say that I’m not planning on attending the divorce in the Derby. Dettori was a smooth pick up but he;s going to have to work some real magic here. 

21. Epic Ride (30-1) 
Mut: Selfishly, I wish he didn't get it as he could impact my plays with Fierceness. Early foot. Getting better with distance but did appear to get weg-leary late before the jock got into and then up for third in the Blue Grass. Only one career race on dirt. As a handicapper, it's annoying he got in here, no offense to the connections. Probably not using. 

Chuck: Yeah I’m with you on him. Ennis has done a good job with him but he seems like this is a far bigger bite than the Bluegrass was. I’m going to treat him as though he didn’t get in and ignore him 

Mut: Like you said, let's cash some tickets.