No easy leads and why the Derby looks different after this past weekend’s results
Real Writing on Racing 💯
What the hell happened to the Kentucky Derby?
A few months back on the Going in Circles Big Monday Show, the topic as it often is this time of the year, was the Kentucky Derby and the potential runners that might make up the field on May 1, 2021. I made a comment that I felt that the Kentucky Derby point system instituted by Churchill Downs several years ago has changed the landscape for Derby preps and not necessarily for the better. A big part of my thought process based on a lifetime of studying these sort of things (a wasted life perhaps lol) was that just getting to the first Saturday in May is the modus operandi for most of the big outfits that have the vast majority of the potential contenders. Yes I will concede that “you can’t win it, if you aren’t in it” but the way many of our top horses are prepared for what is the most strenuous test of their careers is distinctly lacking. So few seem to have had much ‘trail by fire’ prior to entering a starting gate filled with nineteen other foes for the first and almost assuredly, only time in their lives. The chaotic or surprising nature of four of the last five Derby preps (SA Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and Lexington; only the Bluegrass was easily predictable) is a lesson in what happens with lightly raced, inexperienced colts being asked to move out of their comfort zone, regardless of how talented they may be.
It wasn’t that long ago that we had “Derby rules”, a set of milestones that if not passed by a contender, the horses were roundly dismissed. Among them a start at age two was paramount, three starts as a three year old prior to Derby day was ok if the horse had an extensive two year old campaign, otherwise that was considered to be a weak foundation. For a time ‘dosage’ dominated the pre-Derby conversation, if a horse didn’t have a dosage figure, a theoretical measure of stamina in an individual horses pedigree, lower than 4.0 (believe me you don’t want me to try to explain the mechanics behind how that number is derived) the horse couldn’t win because it hadn’t been done since 1929. Then horses with higher numbers than 4.0 started winning the Derby and it was soon forgotten the way RBI’s have been in baseball. Coming in off of a layoff was also generally frowned upon though the way horses are campaigned has changed so drastically that what would be considered a layoff in the past is considered normal spacing these days.
Of course as in most things in life the game changes, the races and the ways that horses are prepared for those races does as well. Just in New York, in my adult lifetime, we have seen the Jockey Club Gold Cup go from a career defining type of mega-race at 1 1/2 to important Belmont fall meet fixture at 1 1/4, to Breeders Cup prep, to moved to Saratoga to avoid becoming even further marginalized. The last Gold Cup only mustered up a five horse field with no Classic contenders (we don’t count Tacitus as a contender here at Going in Circles) as connections simply don’t want to run the one turn 1 1/4 as as their final Breeders Cup Classic prep. Many other big races have been altered to fit the modern game, the modern training approach, the modern philosophy on campaigning horses and modern racing schedule. There is however one enormously important set of races that hasn’t been altered in over 50 years, the Kentucky Derby and other two legs of the Triple Crown, the Preakness and the Belmont stakes. Despite the many calls for the Triple Crown to be moved back in the calendar and spacing between races added, the massive amount of outcry against last years rescheduling and shortening the distance of the Belmont due to a global pandemic, likely acts as a warning to officials against tampering with what racing followers consider one of the last true traditions of the turf remaining. Yet training and racing schedules heading into the Kentucky Derby keep getting lighter and lighter which seems to be an oddity yet there seems to be a distinct reason why.
The blinking light is Churchill’s Kentucky Derby point system, the heavily weighted final round of preps has created a thought process where the earlier preps are basically discounted as insignificant in regards to earning your way into the field. As such, connections are passing on these races, putting most of their eggs in the later preps baskets which is leading to more and more talented yet inexperienced, later developers jumping into the fray. It’s not difficult to imagine some of these horses are being held out till later dates intentionally with the worry being peaking too soon. The problem is that there is only one way to get the required experience needed and that is to race and to race at the two turn distance. How many super impressive maiden breakers wind up being not so impressive also rans when rushed into more difficult races? Think Prevalence and Collaborate and Prime Factor and Untreated. It’s not that these aren’t good horses, they will almost assuredly bounce back and go onto good careers. It’s not that the allure of the Derby isn’t so bright that anyone would expect the owners/trainers to pass on taking a stab at getting on the train either. I completely understand why they do and I’m not saying that I wouldn’t do the same thing if placed in their shoes. But we shouldn’t be surprised when Concert Tour loses when he is asked to race out of his comfort zone for the first time. We shouldn’t be surprised when aggressively handled colts like Rock Your World or Hot Rod Charlie blitz a field when the rest of the potential pace horses are ridden passively. We shouldn’t be surprised when more than 50% of the Derby field gets smoked because they aren’t good enough, aren’t fit enough, aren’t experienced enough or some combo platter of all those issues. Yes in large fields it’s inevitable that some horses will race poorly, someone will win and someone will finish last. What shouldn’t be inevitable is the reason why many do, which is simply they lack the critical foundation required to stand up to the rigors of a 20 horse, mile and a quarter spectacle. The point system as a whole isn’t a bad idea, the old graded earnings system was fraught with issues as well. The problem is the points need to be distributed in a better, more equitable fashion that encourages connections to use the final preps as the finishing touches on their pre-Derby preparation, not as a lottery ticket which the 100 point preps currently serve as. A tweaking not an overhaul will suffice, perhaps make the 3 year old preps minimum of 20 points for the winner, drop the final preps to 75 points, perhaps bonus points for horses that have hit the board in earlier preps? Yes the Kentucky Derby and to a lesser extend the rest of Triple Crown itself has an oversized importance for North American horseracing. However that doesn’t mean that the kingmakers behind the points system shouldn’t consider making small changes to try to encourage better preparation schedules that lead to stronger horses coming into and probably more importantly, exiting the big race on the first Saturday in May. The winner gets famous, everyone else has work still left to do…
This week’s Going in Circles podcast schedule:
Monday - The Big Monday Show w/ co-host Barry Spears
We will be talking about last weekend’s results with a focus on the Arkansas Derby, Keeneland, and a some of the other stakes around the country. Also touch on the upcoming clash of female titans in this weekends Apple Blossom at Oaklawn which looks like a truly classic type of matchup and hear Barry’s thoughts on that race and where he stands currently on the Derby hopefuls. Available after 11pm (eastern)
Tuesday - Going in Circles LIVE
On this weeks Going in Circles LIVE we are scheduled to be joined by Ken McPeek to talk about Swiss Skydiver and this weekends upcoming showdown with Monomoy Girl and her potential schedule for the next few months, Lexington stakes upsetter King Fury’s plans and touch on his popular racing app Horseracing Now and the difficulties in getting things accomplished when you are tied up with horseracing red tape. We also will be joined by Harlan Malter of IronHorse Racing Stable and Bucchero who is one of the hottest stallions standing in Florida at Pleasant Acres Farm.
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