Making sense of chaos

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Hey you got a minute? I wanna try to take your mind off of the weighty issues of the real world by conversing about our favorite pastime, horse racing…and by weighty I don’t mean the paltry poundage spreads favored by modern racing secretaries in the few handicap races that have survived. That is a story for a different day.

First let me dazzle you with some deep insight here….

Racing has many problems.

Deadly accurate right? Go ahead, you can roll your eyes at that one.

Today I’m just going to pluck one of those issues out of the lineup because of it’s relevance in regards to a race on this weekends light graded stakes schedule. That would be the Mother Goose (Gr. II), which at one point in racing history was one of the premier summer targets for three year old fillies. Born in 1957, it quickly gained stature to be part of the inaugural Triple Tiara or Filly Triple Crown as it used to be designated. The female version has never really caught on that well for various reasons, among them all the races being conducted at one track on one circuit (Belmont & NYRA) and an awful lot of changes over the years as chronicled here by Teresa Gennaro.

That should change.

On the Going in Circles Big Monday show we have long been proponents of fixing the “stakes problem” that we very much do have. Obviously with the precipitous drop in numbers of racehorses that currently exist, maintaining a relatively static number of stakes, especially those of the graded variety, seems to make little sense. Yet in the last few years, the TOBA graded stakes committee has made few changes to its schedule with the number of graded/listed races actually increasing from 2020 to 2022 (644 to 655) despite the population decreasing. Now this wasn’t written to throw stones at the committee who must adhere to a complicated formula as well as a tedious weekly assignment of NARC ratings. (Click Here to see the system) The inherent issue with the TOBA grading system is that there doesn’t seem to be a mechanism that allows for a reset of sorts due to a major loss in horse population. What the current system misses is that the formula is flawed in the case of what is actually occurring in real time because with short fields, it is far easier for graded stakes horses to win/hit the board and in the process, maintain the necessary points for races to not be downgraded or be graded at all. The smaller the fields, the weaker the races yet the weaker races allow a greater % of credentialed runners which boosts the standing of the races, in essence doing the opposite of what it should be doing.

Another flaw that needs addressing is that “Geographic distribution is not considered in deliberations on grading” . California stakes have suffered from an exodus of horses from the circuit, a difficult to overcome concentration of talent in a handful of operations plus dealing with increased competition via expanded stakes schedules at major eastern tracks which lessens the need for those horsemen to ship west. If you keep running four and five horse stakes, the same horses will look more credentialed than in the past when the rules were designed. A perfect example would be the presence of Happy Jack’s record being a positive going forward for the Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby because he clunked up to be third twice (beaten 22.75 lengths combined in those two placings) due to small, inept fields outside of the winner and runner up. Also along the issue of geographic lines is the overlap and over-abundance of stakes as well as the addition of lucrative overnight stakes at NYRA and Churchill, often nothing more than glorified allowance races, which have served to further dilute fields east of the Mississippi.

Simply slashing stakes isn’t the entire answer either. What makes sense to everyone but the naysayers who dominate the racing conversation, is an actual schedule that builds upon itself, prioritizes our best races and creates better, more competitive racing at the highest levels, as it should be. Let’s take glimpse at how it might be done.

Those who own the grades need to exert more influence

A grade I win is better than a grade II win which is better than a grade III win which is better than a listed win. Easy to understand, right? So why don’t we have a schedule where grade I and grade II races flow into each other with grade III and Listed stakes doing the same? For one the tracks run stakes races whenever they choose to, in many examples they are placed as competition to an opposing tracks races and in an era with fewer and fewer horses, that philosophy might only make sense for those track officials. However the grades don’t belong to the track, only the races do. I’m not delusional enough to think that without prompting or perhaps outright threats, tracks will work together to come up with a more sensible schedule. Keeneland and Churchill have done well to coordinate their schedules but they also share a common racing secretary and dates that don’t overlap so it’s difficult to emulate their success. However an organization that is almost completely dependent on the graded stakes system does exist and the Breeders Cup and it’s championship events have what everyone in racing wants. Imagine the Breeders Cup working in conjunction with the TOBA and the major tracks to create a Road to the Breeders Cup series of races, held throughout the year? It’s not exactly a new idea as there have been some similar series in the past, most notably the American Championship Racing Series which only lasted three years, 1991-1993. A decade later the TOBA along with the NTRA, Breeders Cup and racetrack execs tried unsuccessfully to develop a spring - fall series of races to lead into the BC Championship days. Back in 2009 the Breeders Cup hired an outside consulting company to look into that same sort of plan but nothing came of it, as told by Ray Paulick here. So why do I think it’s possible when anything similar has always failed, usually due to industry dysfunction? Because the game back then was on the incline, foal crop increasing, raw handle numbers much stronger, more racetracks were open running far more races. The big day concept was still developing, NYRA and Churchill and to a lesser extent Keeneland weren’t yet flush with slot cash and perhaps most importantly, the stakes themselves weren’t a shadow of themselves. To be frank, it’s hard to conjure up much optimism for the sport as a whole when we are served a steady diet of five (or less) horse fields in graded stakes, piled on top of similar shortages of entrants in most of the non-stakes categories too. Fixing this requires…you know…an actual fix which is unlikely until the people having internal conversations at these organizations become far more cognizant that thoroughbred horseracing in the United States is not a healthy industry and HISA is not a cure.

Three year old fillies can be the poster child for change

No plan will be perfect for a variety of reasons including the trend towards campaigns with fewer starts, with more “spacing” and of shorter duration. Tracks might not be thrilled with having to move the date of their races or change distances or some other tweak to make a series work. With that in mind I think any series of races that has BC implications should start in April at Keeneland. It’s the big Spring meet with plenty of graded stakes, purse money and it’s central location in the Midwest attracts a good cross section of horses migrating north from winter quarters, as well as from both coasts. Since we are concentrating on three year old fillies, the races in question are the Ashland (Gr I) at 8.5 furlongs and Beaumont (Gr III) at 7 furlongs. The follow up for these two races (understanding that there are other preps for the KY Oaks but this is just a rough outline) are the Kentucky Oaks (Gr I) at 9 furlongs and the Eight Belles (Gr II) at 7 furlongs. Our proposal for the third leg is to have the Mother Goose (Gr II) be extended back to its more traditional distance of 9 furlongs and run on Belmont eve with the Acorn run on the undercard at a shortened distance of 7 furlongs. I’m sure this would be met with some hand-wringing by NYRA officials but a quick reminder that an enhanced version of these two races surely would make recruiting entrants for the two races easier and considering that between the four races the last two years we are looking at 18 total runners…well why would these be met with resistance and don’t tell me tradition! Not to mention shifting the Acorn to 7f lines it up with the male three year old version, the Woody Stephens and rescues the Mother Goose from its growing irrelevance.

So far you see what we did here? Using this years calendar:

The big goal for three year old fillies in the late summer and early part of the fall are the Alabama and Cotillion for the routers and the Test for the sprinters. How do we get from the chart above to those? Well for starters we have to overcome the following quandary.

The three year old filly dirt route division schedule the first two weekends of July highlights the trouble of allowing tracks to just run their graded stakes whenever they choose. On July 2 Delaware Park runs the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks going 8.5 furlongs for 300k. On July 9 Prairie Meadows and Horseshoe Indianapolis run the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks and Indiana Oaks, both going 8.5 furlongs for 225k and 200k respectively. This is after the current version of the Mother Goose grade 2 going 8.5 furlongs is run on June 25 at Belmont. Add into the mix the Wilton, a new ‘soon to be listed’ stakes added by NYRA to be run at a mile at Saratoga on July 15, for three year old fillies that are non-stakes winners, to further dilute the pool of potential runners.

Assuming that a seven horse field would be the goal for these races (6 and below is a short field, period), you’d need to have 35 stakes caliber, three year old dirt route fillies to fill those five races, and the very best ones (Secret Oath, Nest, Katherine O, etc.) who might only be interested in running in grade 1 races aren’t even included in that number. Who believes that there are 35 of those types ready, willing and available to run? The true number is probably closer to half of 35.

The Iowa and Indiana Oaks should be run on different dates and adding the Monmouth Oaks on July 31st as well as the Delaware Oaks, there is no logical reason why these four races aren’t scheduled as part of a B team stakes schedule for grade 3 fillies. It would create a path for developing fillies and those who aren’t quite up to higher grade 1 competition, plus ensure bigger, better fields which is a win for bettors, the tracks bottom line (which is a win for the purse account too) and the graded system itself. Add a bonus structure to tie the races together partially funded by the Breeders Cup and stallion farms sponsorships and suddenly you have secondary races at secondary tracks rising in stature, importance and benefitting everyone but the super trainers, who now must compete instead of simply capitalizing on the current dysfunction.

Yes I’m sure that there will be some that will point out various issues that might crop up such as tracks whining about their “festivals” or some other nonsense that no one really cares about. I set the races rather randomly (trying to stay off of big days like Triple Crown/Haskell dates) it isn’t set in stone and I believe those are all TVG tracks so perhaps they could pitch in as well. Also it’s possible that there could be tie-ins for other divisions on those dates as well so that these tracks may be able to package races like they all seem to do these days. Remember that there are people in this business that get paid a lot of money to come up with good ideas, (see any lately?) this is more of a concept that I’m offering free of charge, so save your breath if you want to be a negative nelly.

Back to the big girls

Okay where does that leave us with regard to the upper tier three year old fillies after Belmont Stakes weekend? Churchill’s meet closes three weeks post-Belmont which makes it difficult to fit another race into this plan. With the CCA Oaks and Alabama both scheduled for Saratoga, the logic seems to be move the CCA Oaks (Gr I) up a week to opening weekend at the Spa, July 16 with the Alabama (Gr I) five weeks later on August 20. With the Cotillion (Gr I) run on September 23 at Parx, you have completed the three year old route series on the road to the Breeders Cup Distaff.

The 3yo filly sprinter path is a bit more complicated. After the Acorn on Belmont day the only graded sprint race that exists prior to the mid-August Test (Gr I) is the Victory Ride at Belmont Park on July 9. Post-Test is the Prioress (Gr II) closing weekend at Saratoga. That’s it. However there are some current races that could be better utilized in different ways with some changes in placement or distance. My suggestion is cut the Torrey Pines (Gr III) at Del Mar back to 7f and run it September 3 as part of this series. I would also include the Dogwood (Gr III) at Churchill going 7f to be run on October 1 and the big move would be for Santa Anita to move the La Brea (Gr I) to the same date at the same distance where it would serve as a final stepping stone for the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. As it stands the Torrey Pines is a 100k stakes that would be better served as part of the west coast road to the BC FM Sprint than it currently does as pretty much a standalone event. The La Brea makes little sense in its current late December date slot, especially considering it currently is one of only two grade 1 sprint stakes for three year old fillies. If I was management of Santa Anita I’d be very concerned about the La Brea’s ability to maintain its grade 1 status considering what hasn’t exactly been a stellar list of recent winners as well mediocre fields in general. For whatever reason it has never caught on as well as the male version, the Malibu, which consistently draws far better quality horses. When a west coast Breeders Cup is on tap, the La Brea would be in line to be a perfect stepping stone for three year old sprinters to take on older mares in the FM Sprint, with its grade 1 status and lack of a similar race in New York making it a very attractive spot for shippers.

There are so many things that could be done in conjunction with this schedule. Perhaps point standings that convert into a bonus structure with the Breeders Cup blending in some version of the existing “Win and your In” scheme? Get sponsors (it’s the BREEDERS CUP, what better event for stallion farms to promote?) to boost purses, use insurance to offer some super bonus offer like win 3 of these lead-in races plus the BC Distaff or BC FM Sprint and get $2000000 bonus. Incentivize racing in these spots, create natural rivalries, put some of the spotlight on underserved divisions and with the trend towards our best fillies returning to race at 4 and beyond, help create awareness for our current and future stars.

As it now stands, there is little that tethers any of these races together, they are mostly plagued by small fields, and in many cases, overwhelming favorites. The Acorn and Mother Goose were perfect examples of both issues and the cold, hard reality is that more of the same is coming unless changes are made. Racing has always been terrible at dealing with its issues, hell it’s often a monumental task to get racing insiders to even acknowledge that a problem does in fact exist. The field size issue in stakes races isn’t going away, it’s going to get worse if the status quo continues. If we can’t get people to care about the quality of our best races….

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