Lexington Day Thoughts
Real Writing on Racing 💯
The Lexington (Gr III) is the final official Kentucky Derby prep…but it’s not often that the race actually has any impact on the first Saturday in May. This years edition appears to run along those same relatively innocuous lines as only one entrant can earn his way into the Derby gate, and he is coming back on short rest after being thrashed last out. Nevertheless we will take a look at the field which has several interesting new faces among the nine expected to start, plus a glimpse at a tremendous Jenny Wiley (Gr I) which is a true elite level race with a host of top contenders.
We will have a complete first look at the expected Kentucky Derby field this coming week with as much pertinent info as we can find. The Kentucky Oaks doesn’t get nearly the attention as the Derby but it is a really wide open affair this year and we will have some stuff on that race too.
🍎 The Apple Blossom (Gr I) is always one of the highlights of the Oaklawn Park season. I have a personal rooting interest as my friend Gerry Bruno is taking a swing with his 3x Louisana bred champ Free Like a Girl who is making her 38th career start from post 1 in the field of nine. We don’t see many warriors (37-17-10-5) like the 5yo daughter of minor LA stallion El Deal, who her owners picked up for $5500 as a yearling, but they are easy to root for. Adare Manor looms as the prohibitive and deserved favorite shipping in for Baffert. The Apple Blossom is the DRF Formulator Race of the week and you can access PP’s for the race here.
🐎 Sid Fernando talks to trainer Danny Gargan about his success with sons of excellent young stallion Good Magic Here.
🆓 Free DRF PP’s for Keeneland’s All Turf Pick 3 Here.
🏇🏻 Lexington (Gr III) PP’s compliments of BRISnet.com ⤵️
💰 Mike Mut loved the winner of the Wood last weekend and gave a little push on the 105-1 runner up too. See who he likes today by checking out his Stackcapping
Lexington (Gr III) $400,000 3yo 1 1/16 (20 KYD pts)
Secret Chat - at first glance it’s easy to dismiss the FL bred son of Union Rags who has just one start this season, in a state bred sprint race at GP. Yet when you start to peel back the rest of this group, he starts to fit better making his first try in graded stakes company and also around two turns. Trainer Rodriguez is a lower profile but capable conditioner and despite a few negative trainer stats (0-20 in routes) they are mostly a product of the modest stock he is generally working with. He has run decent TG’s returning with an 8.75 that matched his best earned in the Aventura stakes last October, his connections thought enough of him to nominate to the Triple Crown series, and he has achieved a excellent record of 3-1-2-0 despite having issues leaving the gate in all three starts. Rosario has done well for the barn in the past and with a clean start, a rail saving ride and a little bit of good fortune, I could see him sneaking onto the board at a nice price.
The Wine Steward - last time he was in the news was at the Breeders Cup when he was an early vet scratch out of the Juvenile. Maker obviously regrouped as the NY bred son of Vino Rossi got some time off to recover from whatever ailed him, he resumed breezing mid-February and entered here with a steady series of good works since. Kept good company as a two year old, just missing in the Breeders Futurity (Gr I) over this course and short stretch layout and was running 6 TG’s as a two year old, consistently faster than most of these do as three year olds. Has shown an ability to take dirt and run on the inside, figures to get a nice trip behind the expected early leaders under Luis Saez and looms as very much the one to beat in here.
Dilger - jumped up and ran well last time out when breaking his maiden at GP going a mile out of the dirt chute. Previous tries mostly dull on both surfaces and I’m skeptical about the high Beyer fig earned last out as the top 3 all supposedly ran 20-27 Beyer points higher? Sorry not buying that plus the Saffer isn’t nearly as potent outside of Florida as he is in the sunshine state.
Footprint - our weekly Ken McPeek is an impossibly difficult trainer to read reminder. This Dialed In homebred colt got a tough trip when a bang up second in the Rushaway at TP on Jeff Ruby day in his first try over the synthetic. Before that had run really well in an OP allowance behind Seize the Grey, his first jump to stakes competitive speed figures (TG 6.5). Comes back on 21 days rest (which I like for him) and if Hernandez can avoid too much ground loss, he is a solid on-the-board threat.
Hades - connections trying a ‘Hail Mary’ here, wheeling back two weeks after getting thumped by Fierceness in the Florida Derby (Gr I). Yes he got a less than ideal trip after being bumped at the break but he didn’t muster up much after that either. Adds blinkers and switches to Jose Ortiz but IMO is a huge play against as he will likely face pace pressure from the outside horse, Lucky Jeremy and might get over-bet based on the speed bias that existed on the sloppy main track all week. If they had just run in the Fountain of Youth…they wouldn’t be in this predicament.
How’s Ur Attitude - actually it’s fine but it’s also still early and by post time might not be so cheery. This oddly named son of Street Sense has exclusively raced over Turfway’s Tapeta surface in his three race career and is out of a good graded stakes winning mare who excelled on grass. Has run three consecutive TG fig’s of 11 and is eligible to improve but it’s still guesswork, hoping he handles the surface switch.
Everdoit - assuming he will be scratched since he ran (poorly) on Wednesday.
Encino - Cox wisely scratched the Nyquist colt from a tough post last Saturday in the Bluegrass (Gr I). Has a nice record on the surface but hasn’t really run fast and you are likely getting a lower price than you should be. Clearly eligible to improve on the dirt based on the sire, though the dam side pedigree doesn’t offer much help.
Liberal Arts - got wiped out early in the Arkansas Derby (Gr I) and wound up in an impossible spot on a track that was playing against his running style. Wheels back in two weeks hoping to win and be on the fringes of Derby contention with a few defections. Does add Irad but is there enough pace to suit him and on the face of it, short stretch Keeneland doesn’t really favor his late closing style either. Unfortunate because he seems like a legit upper tier three year old too.
Lucky Jeremy - wasn’t all that lucky drawing the far outside post yet I’d assume that Corrales will be under instructions from trainer Morey to send out of there and try to clear Hades going into the first turn. If that isn’t the plan and he winds up pressing, the early pace may well heat up. He has a developing figs pattern and if left unattended to on the lead might be dangerous but it seems unlikely to happen.
Jenny Wiley (Gr I) $600,000 4&up F/M 1 1/16 turf
Walkathon - steps up into grade 1 company with solid figs and one trait that most of the others in here lack. That’s early speed and on paper it appears that Julian Leparoux should have this five year old mare on the lead, hoping to steal one like she did in the Endeavor (Gr III) at Tampa in February. This however, is a far stronger group and despite me being a strong loose leader advocate, I’d demand a solid price to even consider.
Fluffy Socks - her career can somewhat be defined as “always runs well, rarely wins”. I see nothing in the PP’s to make me believe that is going to change.
Elusive Princess (Fr) - won the Saratoga Oaks Inv (Gr III) in a thunderstorm over a boggy course in her US debut but hasn’t improved on that form in two subsequent efforts. Give in the ground after all the rain won’t hurt and she may be sitting on a big effort in her second try as a 4yo.
Embrace Me - saw that her former trainer Tommy Albertrani has decided to retire, racing losing another veteran conditioner. Also saw the news yesterday that the even younger Ralph Nicks decided he’d had enough as well. The more racing contracts, the worse off it is. Oh yeah this mare has no chance here.
English Rose (Ire) - an in-form Frankel filly shipping in for Chuck Appleby and his trusty reinsman Bill Buick with progressive Timeform ratings and a stellar record…did we leave any of the boxes unchecked? Seems to be here for the reason, not the season.
Gina Romantica - excellent miler who seems better suited to fast paced races in which to launch her devastating late kick which seems muted in slower tempo events like this appears to be. Respect but probably going in a different direction here
Surge Capacity - had a very nice 3yo season with a 5-4-1-0 record, the 4 wins coming over 4 different tracks, including the Valley View on this course and beating older mares in the Matriarch (Gr I) to close the season out. Rough spot to make your first start off a brief layoff and she will have to be at her best to beat these as her top TG of 6.75 won’t get it done here.
Star Fortress (Ire) - she has 3 US races and all were vastly different outcomes. If she can regain the form from her North American debut back at Churchill last November, they are all running for second as there isn’t a filly on this soil who could have beaten her that day. Her GP try in the F/M Pegasus was a debacle from the start with trouble even Goldikova wouldn’t have been able to overcome. Last out in the ridiculously slow paced Hillsborough (Gr II), she was simply too close even to the glacial fractions and didn’t have much kick. Back to Saez doesn’t hurt and if you’ve burned money on her in either of the last two starts, you’ll be getting a square price today.
Didia (Arg) - hard knocking South American bred mare does nothing but win with a lifetime record of 15-10-2-0. Gritty score when close throughout in the F/M Pegasus last out, she drew a tough post again and while she is always dangerous, a good trip might be a challenge this go around.
Beaute Cachee (Fr) - 5 yo mare makes her season debut in tough spot with less than ideal post. Has run well in all her US starts but this is by far the best group that she has met and even with the presence of the ageless Frankie Dettori in the saddle, it’s hard to see her making a big impact here.
📺 Blast from the past - They ain’t making Lexington’s like this anymore 🧨