Last Hurrah

Real Writing on Racing 💯

The past performances for opening day at Saratoga, definitely the most anticipated Thursday card of the year, are already out but Belmont’s final Saturday till 2024 has a trio of excellent stakes races to cap off its Spring meet. A pair of long distance (by North American standards) grass events for sophomores have drawn super competitive field with a handful of interesting European shippers. However the third stakes race, the Victory Ride (Gr III) going 6.5 furlongs on the dirt for three year old fillies has the look of a classic with a couple of undefeated and largely untested sprinters squaring off with division leader Red Carpet Ready with a host of talented entrants filling the other five gate posts. The Suburban (Gr II) is also on tap but it’s yet another indictment of the historic weakness of the older horse division as the 5 going post-ward have combined for exactly one graded stakes win (the eminently forgettable Ghostzapper (Gr III)) out of twenty three 2023 starts. A brief preview of the three appealing stakes can be found below ⬇️

🌽 The Iowa Derby is tonight at Prairie Meadows and a whopping 14 are entered in the ungraded 250k event going 8.5 furlongs. Bo Cruz rates a long look coming out of the Matt Winn (Gr III) and cutting back in distance for Al Stall. The Cornhusker is also on tap as is the Iowa Oaks (Gr III). We don’t love him but Call Me Fast is our one to watch in the former and Broken Hearts Bay for the home team, is a tepid selection in a very weak Oaks.

🏀 The Indiana Derby and Oaks are also today, horseracing scheduling at its finest 🤦🏼‍♂️. The two features look like they may chalk out as Verifying looks very tough in the Derby and Taxed looms the one to beat in the Oaks. I don’t bet Indiana so don’t shoot the messenger.

🐎 The Delaware Handicap (Gr II) is also scheduled for today at the new distance of 1 3/16 on the dirt. Idiomatic is the ML fav but is a play against at a short price. We do like Wright Up Front in the 10th for the great JJ Toner though 6-1 is probably not happening.

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Belmont Oaks Inv.(Gr I) $500,000 3yo fillies 1 1/4 turf

1. Mission of Joy - Kitten’s Joy filly was Rosario’ed Derby weekend otherwise would likely be undefeated on the grass. Has tactical ability and a pedigree that suggests that the 10 furlongs should be well within her scope. The downside is that she is listed at 2-1 morning line and really isn’t faster on figs than most of her main competitors here. She can surely win but you are probably getting an underlaid price.

2. Strikingly Spun - stalked a tepid pace going further and got nailed at the wire by a Clement 4 yo dropping out of older horse stakes. Should be forwardly placed and runs as fast as the contenders. Live longshot

3. Speirling Beag (Ire) - makes US debut for Motion after fair try in soft ground grade 3 in France in only 2023 start. Tough to know what to expect.

4. Papilio (Ire) - hasn’t improved off of her first two starts as a 3yo which were very good. She clearly has a chance on her best but Casse is icy at Belmont and she may be best at a mile.

5. Prerequisite - wired the Wonder Again (Gr II) last out, just outlasting Be Your Best (Ire), perhaps is put on the lead here though her trainer hates the front end and Barry Spears hates Irad on it. Another possibility in a contentious event.

6. Be Your Best (Ire) - FINALLY a broke through 9-10 TG in the Wonder Again via a tough trip when wide both turns yet still didn’t manage to get her picture taken except by photo finish camera. Her 5 TG is by far the fastest in the field but the question is can she replicate it 27 days later? 10-1 sure seems like a good price to find out.

7. Aspray - undefeated in three starts including a score in the Hilltop on Black Eyed Susan Day. Has the pedigree to stretch out to 10 furlongs but will need a lifetime best though the Brown/Prat combo has unreal numbers (29% at Belmont and a flat bet positive ROI of 2.16 in 2022-23)

8. Freydis the Red (Fr) - finally got through her maiden condition but this is a huge step up as that wasn’t a great group she bested

9. Aspen Grove (Ire) - Stack has pulled off US raids before though it’s been several years since success. US based owner/breeder makes me wonder if she’d be here if that wasn’t the case but perhaps they are just searching for firmer than European ground as her Euro form is spotty.

Belmont Derby Inv.(Gr I) $750,000 3yo 1 1/4 Turf

1. Mendelssohns March - seems a cut below these

2. Boppy O - upset Talk of the Nation in the Jersey Derby last out, that one ran second again in yesterdays Manila (Gr III) at Belmont with third place finisher from Monmouth, Turf King (Ire) capturing the Marine (Gr III) last weekend at Woodbine. My biggest question is 10 furlongs as he has lost ground often in the stretch of shorter distances and doesn’t have a pedigree that shouts more ground

3. Cyber Ninja - improving sort can handle the distance but can he handle it fast enough? Seems unlikely.

4. Webslinger - ranked number 10 in the latest Going in Circles Digest top 3 year old rankings. Is fast and at the top of his game right now. You’d have to believe the extra furlong won’t be an issue especially with the race shaping up like it will have a honest early pace scenario. The US horse to beat

5. Far Bridge - form is excellent, runs good TG figs, should find 10 furlongs within his scope being by English Channel out of a Kitten’s Joy mare and gets Rosario off. Big chance.

6. Silver Knott (GB) - Chuck Appleby runners haven’t been as deadly this year as they have in the past, on both sides of the pond. This guy got shuffled behind a slow pace last out but was out-finished by Far Bridge and while Mullen is a fine jock, we like it a lot better when Bill Buick ships. The positive spin is you get a Godolphin/Appleby grass runner at a decent price, the negative is he looks about 4th best.

7. Wizard of Westwood - his presence shipping in from the west coast ensures that the pace won’t be too slow as he is a confirmed front runner. Won at the distance last out at Santa Anita in the Cinema though the California turf horses are generally a step or two below their eastern counterparts. I’d guess Kalik will keep him honest enough that he can’t steal it

8. Kalik - he 100% stole the poorly named Pennine Ridge last out with a clear lead in 24.69 and 49.17 basically being like a head start. Likely to chase Wizard of Westwood and perhaps do the dirty work for a couple of the other contenders. This may be a prep for the Kings Plate at Woodbine next month as the son of Collected is an Ontario bred and is nominated to that Canadian Classic

9. Mondego (GB) - would need a new lifetime top by a lot to be any sort of contender here. Hard to see that happening

10. Redistricting (GB) - comes into this with only one start but what a start that was! Powerful score, running past what looked like a strong maiden group first time out. He got a TG of 6 which is extremely good for a FTS and while normally a stretch out to a 10 furlongs Grade 1 in a horses second lifetime start would be frowned upon, Brown does some of his best work with lightly raced three year old grass horses. Loses Irad but gains Prat and is really the wildcard of the race

11. The Foxes (Ire) - an excellent, in-form Euro shipper who exits a good try in the English Derby against budding star Auguste Rodin (who potentially could take a shot at the BC Classic according to the rumors this week). Should appreciate the cutback from 12 furlongs, has handled firmer than soft ground and looms as a huge contender under Murphy who won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on his last trip stateside and took down the EP Taylor (Gr I) at Woodbine for Balding back in 2017.

Victory Ride (Gr III) $175,000 3yo fillies 6.5f dirt

1. Interpolate - ran a valiant second behind Key of Life in the Beaumont(Gr II) at Keeneland, earning huge TG of 2.25. Key of Life returned to get her doors blown off by Maple Leaf Mel though this filly should benefit from having a running style suited to stalk the pace rather than duel for the lead. The rail post isn’t ideal but ignore her at your peril

2. Dazzling Blue - undefeated, untested Into Mischief Juddmonte homebred for Cox and new rider Prat. She only seems to know one way as she has led at every call but faces serious competition for that lead today. Her Beyer numbers are a little light though TG respects her last giving her a 5.5 which won’t be enough to win this and from the inside she has no choice but to send. I’m against today

3. Vahva - last two were big improvements and the cutback in distance seems to agree with her. She will get a hot pace to chase and set up her last kick, Cherie is red hot currently, winning stakes at Belmont and Horseshoe Indianapolis yesterday after a MSW win earlier in the week at Belmont. Still this is a tough ask though an on-the-board finish seems within her scope at a decent price

4. Adeliese’s Smile - seems overmatched

5. Maple Leaf Mel - not often do you see horses who are streaking toward the top of the division transferred to a rookie trainer with two lifetime wins but here we are. The NY bred by Cross Traffic has high speed and makes it look effortless running TG 3 in her two starts at 3. If she can dispose of Dazzling Blue while having a little something left in the tank to hold off Red Carpet Ready is the question though she humiliated a different Cox speedster Key Of Life in the Ms Preakness. While realizing that Giddings was involved with the filly as assistant to Englehart, it’s still unsettling taking a short price on her though she may be the best filly in the field. It’s part of what makes this a fascinating race as opposed to the typical supertrainer fare that we are usually served.

6. Downtown Mischief - seems like it’s a banner year for NYB 3yo filly sprinters. This Into Mischief homebred is really good and is flying completely under the radar but has run as consistently fast as anyone in here not named Maple Leaf Mel. Can she take dirt in her face is the question as she is usually in the clear?

7. Topsy - consistent filly by the underrated Bee Jersey is another that runs good figs and hangs around picking up checks all the time.

8. Red Carpet Ready - This race is named after the super fast Rusty Arnold filly who crushed Hall of Famer Xtra Heat in the Test (Gr I) during that one’s three year old championship season. Oscar Performance filly has done little wrong in her career outside of getting involved with a hot pace going longer in the Davona Dale (Gr II) early this spring. Out-dueled the talented Munnys Gold down the lane in the Eight Belles (Gr II) Kentucky Derby weekend last out and seems perfectly drawn here with so much speed inside of her. Will test Maple Leaf Mel in the lane