Last exit on the CD highway
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🦃 Thanksgiving weekend is an important milestone along the racing season highway, the last vestiges of Autumn racing receding as the temperature drops. The waning days of Churchill Downs Fall meet are part of the horse racing holiday celebration, its final important, highly graded stakes are among the last on the national schedule.
▪️Yesterday the $500,000 Fall’s City (Gr III) went to the improving Into Mischief filly, Played Hard for underrated trainer Phil Bauer. Overcoming a bobble at the start, Played Hard under Joel Rosario, set a solid pace and held sway in the lane to score a length victory over California shipper Bellamore. In the other Thanksgiving day co-feature, Dalika (Ger) also used front running tactics to hold off the strong closing kick of longshot Perseverancia to register yet another Churchill Downs graded stakes win. The six year old daughter of Pastorius (Ger) captured the initial CD running of the long standing Arlington Park fixture, the Beverly D (Gr I) this summer before knocking off the Ladies Turf (Gr III) at Kentucky Downs for trainer Al Stall. If Dalika (Ger) isn’t returning for her 7 year old season, she went out with a bang, three graded stakes wins in her last four starts, the only dull effort at Keeneland, a surface that she never found much success over.
▪️Today the stakes action is also split between two races, the Mrs Revere (Gr II), a competitive yet relatively weak grade 2 for straight three year old fillies over Churchill’s beleaguered turf course; and then the Clark (Gr I) featuring the oddly popular Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike versus an unheralded collection of grade II and III performers.
▪️Tomorrow the two years olds take the stage with a card consisting of all races for the freshman, including four stakes events, the Grade II Golden Rod and Kentucky Jockey Club being the co-features. Sunday’s final card of the CD season features 12 races including the Commonwealth Turf (Gr III) for three year old grass runners.
Mrs Revere Gr II $300,000 8.5 furlongs turf 3yo fillies
Take A Stand - Will Take Charge isn’t exactly a great grass influence but he has had some successful turf runners and this filly whose lone try on the weeds was in a sprint, long ago, might be ok. She has been progressing lately, her last last 3 TG figs (5-7-7) are solid for three year old fillies, she draws the rail and looks like she could get a nice pocket trip. Worth a look in a very soft graded stakes race.
She’s Gone - deep closer made no impact in the QEII in her latest. She has improved quite a bit since May making you wonder if she is ready to plateau. With a tepid pace expected, you’d have to downgrade her chances
Lady Puchi - consistent filly makes start 12 of 2022 today. She always lurks but rarely gets to the wire first as her 15-2-4-1 record can attest to. She wouldn’t be a shocking winner but it’s hard to get too excited to take her on top
Bubble Rock - the expected pace setter, looked like she was home at Keeneland in the Valley View (Gr III) in her latest but tired late to check in 4th. Yesterdays grass stake was won in wire to wire fashion, there doesn’t appear to be a logical pace presser and her figured earned in the Keeneland race (7 TG) is faster than most in here have run. Dangerous.
Sweet Lady Ivanka - the good news is she is undefeated on the grass. The bad news is that was a maiden win and her closing style might be at a disadvantage here. Her Turf TG was not nearly good enough so if you take her demand a big price to match her need for a big improvement.
California Angel - the most accomplished runner in this event, she too might find the pace slower than preferred to suit her usually late charge. Fade at a short price
Lovely Princess - comes into this off a sharp allowance score. That was her first TG figure that would put her in the mix here and she has displayed some tactical speed in the past so perhaps she can stay close enough to make some noise late. Hernandez/McPeek have excellent numbers together.
Fancy Martini - Klimt (worst named horse of the decade) filly might hold the key to this race as she does have a bit of tactical speed and an aggressive rider in Luis Saez. If he decides puts some pressure on Bubble Rock down the backside, it might create enough pace to give the rest a chance. If she lets the expected leader to go a half in 49 or slower, the task is much tougher.
Have a Good Day - Scratched
Quality Star - yet another deep closing, maiden breaker coming off a lifetime top. Tough to separate a bunch of these though at a long price you might want to use her underneath.
Joyful Applause - she was wide both turns in a narrow allowance defeat early in the meet. If Morales can workout any sort of decent trip, she would be playable at a big price.
The Clark Gr I $750,000 9 furlongs dirt 3&up
Proxy - Tapit colt was knocking on the door to the big leagues earlier in the season with on-the-board finishes in the New Orleans Classic (Gr II), Ben Ali (Gr III), Blame (L), and Stephen Foster (Gr II) before going to the sidelines. Might be hampered by a questionable pace but he is fast enough, attracts Rosario and his best race can land him in the winners circle. Our choice here
Trademark - Scratched
Injunction - Improving gelding by the unheralded Skipshot, has done most of his best work around one turn, with a win in the Cowboy Jones at Ellis and a runner up finish in the Ack Ack (Gr III) showing his recent strong form. He has won over this surface at this same distance albeit with slightly slower figures than his one bend adventures. He does possess good early speed and his main importance here might be how Raphael Bejarano decides to use it.
Rich Strike - this was the right move by his connections, he loves CD and for a horse that is still eligible for nw2x conditions, being the favorite in a soft grade 1, $750k race is a spot that owners and trainers dream of. That being said, he is far from a cinch here despite the drastic step down in competition. Ran a huge fig when a controversial second in the Lukas Classic in September (-2 TG) and understandably reacted back to a more typical 0.5 TG in the BC Classic. The question is does he pair that number which puts him in the mix, can he go back to the negative numbers (bad is good on TG) or does he further react to the big number 2 races back, especially on short rest and with his trainer talking tactic changes (wants to sit closer)? You know that I’m fading in this spot as he probably should be 7/2 and he will be 8/5 and I don’t want to hear his fanatical fans make his hall of fame case if he wins.
Fulsome - consistent grade 3 performer is hoping for a quick pace as he is a settle and make a run closer. He has been more effective at a bit of a shorter trip but Cox is always dangerous in Kentucky.
Last Samurai - the karma of firing his trainer after he won a million dollar race at Oaklawn has muddied his form since and should keep him from winning here.
West Will Power - walked on the lead in the Fayette (Gr II) earning a big fig (-1.5 TG) and might try to loop them and get to the lead again. Loses Rosario to Proxy and may have to deal with the pace pressure of Injunction as well. If he wins it will be without us.