Last Chance to do the Points Dance

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Opening day at Keeneland started off overcast with temps in the low 50’s, a fast main track and the turf course listed as good. From afar looked like a nice crowd, the apron was always full whenever the camera scanned over and the paddock had its usual scrum of onlookers. We have a ton of races to preview today so let’s get right to the reviews and talk about what happened.

😳 The Ashland (Gr I) had just about every possible twist that you could ask for in a horse race. We had overconfident rides, a filly that still hates kickback, tremendous tactical positioning and a lesson about development that continues to hold true across the board. When we originally scanned the race one unexpected factor cropped up that wound up being the biggest story of the race, we just weren’t smart enough to make use of it.

When handicapping the Ashland (Gr I) we were surprised to see that this Cross Traffic filly looked better on TG figs than her price would suggest. Essentially she was just a tick behind some of the big names in the division and her pattern of development was good. Of course races aren’t won or lost on paper and when the field headed into the first turn it was clear that it wasn’t setting up like it figured to. You can watch the replay by clicking here. Brian Hernandez rode a brilliant tactical race on Defining Purpose and more or less won the race coming out of the first turn by pinning Punchbowl down inside and getting the coveted stalking trip. Prat on Punchbowl was not aggressive enough heading into the first turn and got terms dictated to him instead of vice versa. She got needed experience and finished up fine but may find herself on the outside looking in without enough Oaks points to crack the top 14. Julia Shining still wants no part of kickback and her always losing ground is gonna be an issue in the Oaks if she makes it in, big fields are gonna be her kryptonite. As we noted in the preview Wonder Wheel just hasn’t developed on figs and despite what rhetoric about added weight or maturity or how well the connections feel she is doing or how they didn’t have her fully cranked…young horses that do not show improvement are losing ground to those who do, period. Wonder Wheel was hard held early but she eventually settled and she probably wasn’t winning the race from that far back anyway but she was very flat in the lane, offering little kick. This isn’t a shot at the connections either, it’s just that horses development is mostly determined by some mysterious force within the horse that makes them faster as they mature and we don’t really have any way to change or control that. You can accept this or not but over the years it has rung true time and time again…if a top filly or colt is running the same figs in spring as a 3yo that they were running last summer as a 2yo…it’s gonna catch up to them in the results. Props to Kenny McPeek though for understanding that you can’t win it if you aren’t in it, Brian Hernandez for riding to win and Defining Purpose for firing her best shot at the right time.

🤨There will definitely be a segment on this weeks Going in Circles Big Monday show about the folly of light preparation schedules making late season preps ‘do or die’ races for horses near the top of the division…

👶🏼 Well we opened the meet with a live 23-1 shot as the Aiken Trial winner Callin My Name shot to the lead out of the gate, dueled with filly Alexandra’s Song who drew in from the also eligible list, put that one away as they straightened out but couldn’t hold off the 3-5 favorite, 100% Wes Ward product, Bledsoe. The homebred gelded son of Ward stallion Iqbal, professionally stalked the pacesetters, split them when asked by Joel Rosario and proved best. Mischief Joke rallied to get past Callin My Name for second, after encountering some minor traffic issues he was going well late.

🏇🏻 Afternoon Tea drew in from the also-eligible list to stalk the early leaders from 5th, moved passing the quarter pole when asked by Flavian Prat to challenge for the top and grinded down stubborn first time starter American Retro to take the second race, a 7f MSW on the main track. Afternoon Tea is a WinStar homebred by Speightstown trained by Rudy Brisset, who had run a good 3rd in his debut at OP in February. American Retro impressed in his debut as trainer Wilkes rarely has them cranked up at first asking.

🏇🏻 3rd went to Comparative, a son of Street Sense, owned and bred by Godolphin, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez. Hayunevno was second best

🏇🏻 When unveiled in the Pegasus World Cup Turf back in late January, Hurricane Dream (Fr) was ridden conservatively by Frankie Dettori, taking the French bred to the back of the pack over the least French-like turf course in existence. He put in a sneaky late move and galloped out well despite finishing 10th. Yesterday he drowned pretty good allowance class horses under a perfect ride by Dettori, drawing away to 4.5 length score. Back to stakes for him, perhaps the Old Forrester Turf Classic (Gr I) on the Derby undercard? Joel Rosario inexplicably let Duke of Hazzard (Fr) drop all the way to last after breaking well, rallied belatedly outside and just missed 2nd.

🏇🏻 Nice job by Julian LeParoux extracting Positano Sunset from a traffic jam on the turn, found a seam to run through turning for home and proved just good enough to nail a stubborn Vahva late. Irad gave race fav Ziaerati too much to do but she didn’t seem to fire anyway.

🏇🏻 We were suspicious of Kaufymaker coming off another long layoff and keyed 22-1 Linguistic who raced widest of all and wound up third beaten 3/4 of a length in an excellent effort but not a financially lucrative one for us. Her World (Ire) got bet down to 2-1 returning to the grass and made every pole a winning one despite racing erratically in the stretch. The “other” Ward and Irad held off Nota Bene (Ire) to chalk up Wesley’s second win on the day.

🏇🏻Corona Bolt broke alertly in the Lafayette, grabbed the lead heading down the backstretch, set fast fractions while being prompted by Hurricane J and then Hejazi who was three wide. At the top of the stretch, Hurricane J had enough, Hejazi loomed as the danger, and Gulfport and Lugan Knight chased but weren’t making up ground. In deep stretch, Corona Bolt dug deep along the rail and held Hejazi safe. Freezing Point who was also in chase mode throughout ran much better than expected to be third. Another winner for Cox, this time with Flo Go aboard for Corona Bolt’s second stakes win, Hejazi looks like more one turn races are in his future and I’m not quite what to think about Gulfport or Lugan Knight who didn’t make any impression.

🏇🏻Sometimes races are simple like the Transylvania where Luis Saez on Mo Stash cleverly went to the lead, set moderate fractions and held sway in the lane at a generous 12.96 mutual. Irad decided to give up the lead which seemed to be his only chance to win on Dude N Colorado and he chased futilely and backed up.

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Saturdays Previews

Commonwealth (Gr III) $300,000 4&up 7 furlongs

The weakness of the American sprint division can be summed up with a quick scan of this race. In here the 2-1 morning line favorite is Nakatomi whose only stakes win was as a 2yo in the ungraded Bowman’s Mill back in October of 2021 and amazingly enough that is the only stakes win showing on the pps for the 10 older horses entered in here. Honestly it’s a pretty good race to handicap though more in an Opt Clm/allowance manner and I have no real strong opinion

🚨Going in Circles Digest Keeneland Play of the Day from Barry Spears💰

Appalachian (Gr II) $400,000 3yo fillies 1 mile turf

1. Beautifulnavigator (Ire) - seems too slow

2. Papilio (Ire) - was probably best in her US debut in the Herecomesthebride (Gr III) but does she progress or regress?

3. Cairo Consort - her new found one run closer style fits better on this course than GP but she is always overbet and likely will be again here. We will look to beat her.

4. Heavenly Sunday - kinda, sorta in the mix but not that much in the mix though she is Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears play of the day

5. Alpha Bella - consistent type seems a little slower than the best here.

6. Be Your Best (Ire) - nightmare trip in the Breeders Cup, was faster than most of these 3yo’s as a 2yo. Gets Saez and should get decent early position. At anything close to the ML we will be involved with her.

7. Pleasant Passage - ran a huge race in the Breeders Cup over this course but it’s interesting to see Irad land elsewhere. Logical contender

8. Sabalenka - very consistent filly but she appears to be a step below these at the current time

9. Well Into - same as Sabalenka

Madison (Gr I) $600,000 4&up F/M 7 furlongs

1. Cocktail Moments - seems like this is just a season opener for her, not a race that she is meant to win or for that matter could win.

2. Goodnight Olive - has improved from day one and despite her light schedule, she is one of the best filly sprinters in an era of many good ones. This is a good test for her though as it’s always intriguing to see quality two turn fillies with speed like Society face the pure sprinters like Goodnight Olive at 7f.

3. Society - bombed last out in the BC Distaff but has run big figs and as a newly turned 4yo has room to move forward. I’m intrigued by the race within the race to see where Geroux places her, assuming that Yuugiri goes straight to the lead. This is one of those occasions where you don’t have to have a penny invested yet still be incredibly invested in the outcome.

4. Yuugiri - her best chance seems like speeding to the lead and hoping that the others get too worried about each other and forget about her.

5. Maryquitecontrary - comes in on a 5 race win streak and it’s hard to knock her as she always shows up and she rarely makes it close. That said this is a different league than she has been facing and it seems inevitable that she loses ground on the turn

Bluegrass (Gr I) $1,000,000 3yo 9 furlongs (100 KD Pts)

1. Tapit Trice - the Tampa Bay Derby winner has had early race issues in each of his races as he is just sluggish to get into stride. He has progressed nicely from a figs standpoint as his pattern of development is solid and what you like to see on the Derby trail. That said closing from 11th at Keeneland is not a trip that sees a great deal of post race winners circle action and Luis Saez has his work cut out for him as he will be getting his usual in-race cardio workout pushing on Tapit Trice the entire time. Betting on him is like riding a roller-coaster as ultimately it often turns out fun but there are gonna be some twist and turns getting to the end. I almost assuredly won’t use him on top if I play the race as a childhood of lessons learned at the Glen Falls, Latham and Central Avenue OTB’s says that taking a short price on a horse that figures to get a difficult trip is actually a sin.

2. Clear the Air - could move forward off of two tough trips in a row but not really bullish on his chances here

3. Verifying - had a bit of an uneven trip in the Rebel and can move forward here though I’m a little skeptical about taking a short price even with the jockey change

4. Classic Car Wash - he has developed nicely though I’m still not a huge fan like one of our avid readers (you know who you are!). He is an example of improvement via actually racing on a regular schedule, a lesson that many connections seem to forget.

5. Hayes Strike - ran a huge race against Maryland C teamer’s last out running a big boy number doing it (TG 3). Can he repeat that and pull off the McPeek double (sounds like something you order at McDonalds)? Probably not but again….racing develops horses!

6. Scoobie Quando - outside of having a cool name and being by Uncle Mo I’m baffled by the amount of people who like this horse today. He hasn’t run fast, hasn’t run on dirt and has to make up ground at Keeneland. Good luck to those that back him but I won’t be joining that party

7. Sun Thunder - didn’t really fire last out though still ran a fig better than what most of todays rivals have run. Problem is he is a deep closer in a race lacking in early pace types. I don’t mind the quick turnaround for horses that have this style but he is a tough call here

8. Blazing Sevens - rarely can a top trainer run a talented grade 1 winner in a Derby prep, get beat an inexplicable 26 lengths and no one asks what happened. He was running better figs last fall than virtually everyone else in the Bluegrass field is running this spring and it’s cray to me that we haven’t heard a peep about him. I wasn’t sold on him being a 10 furlong horse but at a nice price today I can take a shot on him being a 9 furlong one with blinks and Irad added.

9. Major Blue - he should be on the lead but I’m guessing that the 5.5 furlong race to Bluegrass winners circle has happened exactly zero times

10. Raise Cain - a nuclear meltdown pace battle, a muddy track and a great ride last out makes him a toss for me here as none of those things are likely to happen again and he is likely to revert back to his normal form which isn’t good enough

11. Mendelssohn’s March - For Hernandez/McPeek fans only.

    Wood Memorial (Gr II) $750,000 3yo 9 furlongs (100 KD Pts)

1. Dreamlike - talented maiden ships north after two excellent efforts though he remains winless. Paired 7 TG which is a solid way to start career though he will have to get better here which is not a given. Pedigree says the added ground shouldn’t be an issue, adds blinkers and should get decent trip from inside post but I’m still on the fence

2. Shadow Dragon - was second in the Holy Bull (Gr III), one of the slowest south Florida Derby preps in recent history, then got smokestacked in the Fountain of Youth. Tough to like.

3. Knox - it costs $12000 to nominate, enter and start in this race. This is like buying $12000 worth of Kevin Knox rookie cards.

4. General Banker - has mastered the art of picking up the pieces and running well enough to be third but hasn’t broke through TG 6.5 which he has run 4 consecutive times. A sentimental rooting interest for sure but minor awards feel like his ceiling

5. Slip Mahoney - makes his two turn debut here after a pair of fast efforts going a mile out of the chute. Pedigree suggests that it should within his scope but you have to wonder about his habit of breaking slow and I’m always wary of closing efforts in one turn races behind fast pace meltdowns. That said if he gets away cleanly, there isn’t much speed in here and he has displayed tactical ability before, making him a big threat. Interesting to me that in his three non-winning efforts, each time he lost to a horse who ultimately won a Derby prep.

6. Clear the Air - SCRATCHED

7. Arctic Arrogance - blinkers come off yet the son of Frosted still appears to be the speed of the race. He is tough, consistent and as indicated, does have something few in here have, early speed. However he also doesn’t exactly finish up that strong going 9f and you have to wonder if the track is playing fair can he shake free and hold off the Calvary?

8. Lord Miles - check out the “closing sprinters often don’t thrive when stretched out to two turns” file or the “Saffie could fund a Presidential campaign run with squandered Derby prep entry cash” one.

9. Crupi - my personal nemesis who always finds a way to compromise his own ability to win a race. Last out he “Tapit Trice’d” the beginning of the race in New Orleans, getting hopelessly far behind before rallying to pass tired foes. He has run well over this surface but there just doesn’t appear to be nearly enough early pace to set up his inevitable late rally of ‘next time’ hope.

10. Uncle Jake - Russell has been able to win with former Baffert runners, a skill that few seem to possess though her being based on the B-level Maryland circuit likely helps. Her deft touch hasn’t translated at Aqueduct as she is just 9% lifetime there so we will pass here though Uncle Jake will be tough to handle in a Pimlico allowance soon.

11. Classic Catch - finally broke through the TG 10 level last out when winning a GP allowance at this distance (6.5 TG). No idea what to expect here.

12. Mr Swagger - would have been better suited in the earlier Bay Shore (Gr III) but if he breaks well can be a pace factor though it’s hard to imagine he can be more than that.

13. Hit Show - the danger for later developing horses under this current Derby point system is the sheer volume of points available during this last round of preps places too little importance on earlier Derby prep wins. Essentially this is a ‘do or die’ race for Hit Show and drawing post 13 (12 with the scratch) makes the task much more difficult. He is the best horse in the race but that status won’t move the slower entrants out of his way and traffic issues in a slow paced race are the things that Derby trail nightmares are made of. This is also a horse with trouble lines at the start of three of his four lifetime races which just adds to the angst. We have been a proponent that this is a suspect crop for months now and Hit Show is one of the few that we believe actually wants the 10 furlongs of the Derby AND has the talent to get it done…but will he get the opportunity? Since his facile win here in the Withers on February 11 he has shipped to the FG, then shipped to Keeneland now has shipped back here and perhaps another race among all that shipping might have been a good idea as he is an unfortunate wide trip away from heading to Baltimore with Instant Coffee rather than to Louisville for his next race.

Gazelle (Gr III) $250,000 3yo fillies 9 furlongs (Ky Oaks pts race)

1. Capella - The future of graded stakes is trending a lot like this race, super trainer A with 2, super trainer B with 2, super trainer C with 1, and random non-super trainer with 1 to fill out the field. This filly chased in her first stakes and non-synthetic track effort, when third of six in the Busher. Must improve as top TG is 11 which isn’t good enough here.

2. Gambling Girl - makes 9th career start, returning from a jaunt to Oaklawn via Palm Beach Downs. Despite missing the board in her latest, it was her best fig (TG 9) and while she does need to improve from that, she isn’t that far off

3. Frosty O Toole - recent purchase is first time Todd here, shipping North from sunny Florida. Has improved a lot from debut (TG 21) and her last was a big jump from her first race on dirt (TG 13.25 to 8.25). Contender in her stakes debut

4. Promiseher America - tries two turns for first time stepping up out of maidens into graded stakes company and Handel is still looking for his first stakes win with a grade.

5. Occult - likely fav off of pretty handy score in the Busanda at this 9f distance in her last for the Brownies. Has been off for 84 days but the one to beat.

6. Shydabhuti - undefeated 3 for 3 filly cruised in the Busher as Brown kept a hammerlock on ungraded three year old filly stakes at Aqueduct that start with the letter B. Has recency edge on her stablemate with her top being a tick higher (7.25 vs 8.25 TG) albeit earned in the mud.

Carter Handicap (Gr I) $300,000 4&up 7 furlongs

1. Today’s Flavor - pretty good state-bred gets tested for class here but has been rattling off big figs time and time again (TG 0.5 four in a row)

2. Bold Journey - another decent state-bred that got destroyed the only time he ventured into open graded stakes company but is coming off a ridiculous TG that’s so fast it seems wrong or he is Baby Yoda 2.0

3. Expressman - cuts back from 9f entry level allowance win. Seems like he would fit better in the Coach Carter stakes than the Carter Handicap.

4. Repo Rocks - the extraordinary tale of the legendary Repo Rocks continues Saturday as his rapid ascension into the pantheon of racing Gods has a new chapter added to his already heart warming story. The desecration of the historic Carter Handicap is just the latest example of the amazing feats of horsemanship that occur on the backside of Parx, a piece of soil on which so many miracles have been performed that it could considered an American racing Lourdes. One of the great races of the American turf, the Carter has been won by such dignitaries as Tom Fool, Bold Ruler, Forego, Gulch, Housebuster, Artax and Affirmed Success. Yet Repo Rocks seems set to trump those legends…as a matter of fact the only time in American history a man named Andrew rode a horse into battle with more fanfare was General Andrew Jackson atop his trusty steed Hickory when defeating the British during the battle of New Orleans in 1814. Need I say more?

5. Little Vic - was swamped by the greatest Virginia bred since Secretariat in the Toboggan (Gr III) but returned to Aqueduct and blitzed the muddy Tom Fool (Gr III) field minus RR. Ran a huge fig (-2.5 TG) that would seem to set him directly up for regression.

6. White Abarrio - SCRATCHED

7. Doppelganger - relishing the mid-Atlantic going 2 for 2 in Laurel allowance races since changing programs from Baffert to Russell. Seems like a stretch to think the win streak hits three against the sheer brilliance of Repo Rocks

Santa Anita Derby (Gr I) $750,000 3yo 9 furlongs (100 KDP race)

1. I Don’t Get it - probably won’t be getting it

2. Dazzlemesilver - he won’t be getting it either unless ‘it’ is ‘hot and dirty’

3. Geaux Rocket Ride - very nice colt by Candy Ride, feels Taiba-ish (meant in a good way). He ran on well in his first two turn try in the San Felipe and of the major contenders likely has the most room to improve. Price isn’t great but most here have question marks

4. One in Vermillion - surprised to see him in here as I thought he may still be in the concussion protocol after his gate incident before the Sunland Park Derby. Perhaps just a bad case of Derby fever that getting smoked in here will cure.

5. Practical Move - really has done little wrong, he runs good figs, he has tactical speed, seems to accelerate when asked, has strong foundation, etc. Clearly the horse to beat going into this race and I don’t have much else to say

6. National Treasure - has battled foot issues which caused him to scratch last month. He has ability but I am wary about Mathew DeSantis Derby Trail crush.

7. Skinner - one run closer needs some help along the way but has run good figs and might be sitting on a huge race.

8. Mandarin Hero (Jpn) - the mystery horse from Japan. Obviously the Japanese horses are very good as evidenced by their international success but this horse has been running on the lesser circuit in Japan. Everyone is just guessing with him but I will say that the Japanese invasion of our better races seems inevitable and getting a prep on US soil will be the best way to approach the Kentucky Derby, not via Dubai.

9. Low Expectations - indeed