Last Chance before the Big Dance
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We take a look at the last three hundred points to the winner Kentucky Derby preps in this weeks Going in Circles Digest. With Keeneland opening with two great cards (not nice mother nature 🌧) it’s an exciting time of the year. The final KY Derby futures pool closes Sunday and it’s really difficult to have much confidence in anyone at this point which also means it’s probably as wide open as ever. It’s been a crazy year for sure and these three prep races (plus the Lexington next week) could really stir the pot even more if we get some strange results.
With the Baffert controversy far more settled now, everyone can spend more time the next month evaluating the horses and races and less time speculating who, what and where some of the top horses may go or wondering about picograms of creams. Spring is always an exciting time in racing with the aforementioned Keeneland meet prefacing Derby week and the lucrative Churchill Downs spring meet and the Wood Memorial card is the last big day of racing in New York before Belmont opens which means Saratoga isn’t far behind. Monmouth, Delaware and Pimlico also aren’t far from opening day in the mid-Atlantic region and Hawthorne is already underway as they try to fill in the huge hole left by Arlington’s closing.
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Bluegrass Stakes Gr. I $1000000 9 furlongs
Commandperformance - a charter member of the 2021 BC Juvy jinx committee, showed up after a lengthy layoff in a maiden race on the Tampa Bay Derby undercard where he was a rarely seen 1-20 favorite. He also was the even more rarely seen 1-20 beaten favorite as he got hung a little bit wide but ran the worst race of his four race career and faltered in the stretch, barely holding on to third running an 8 on TG. He also is still a maiden and while it’s not completely impossible for him to win, fair market value is probably about a 2% chance so the 14-1 that you might get on him is a huge underlay.
Fenwick - ran well in his debut for Steve Asmussen back in October at Belmont but was terrible his proceeding three starts which led to a trainer and training location change to David Fischer in Ocala. He added blinkers and Paco Lopez and that led to an easy wire to wire score over Commandperformance in the aforementioned Tampa maiden race on the TB Derby undercard earning a 7 TG which gets him mostly hot and dirty in here.
Trademark - he also comes out of the Tampa Bay Derby card though he actually ran in the feature race that day, making little impact racing between horses in the 2nd flight and fading late. Seem up against it here.
Zandon - trainer Chad Brown seems to enjoy walking a tight-rope with his Derby trail horses as they are generally infrequently raced and desperately need to earn points when they do show up on the track. This Upstart colt has two solid 9 furlong races under his belt and has never done anything but move up in his brief three race career. He has to run first or second to be guaranteed a starting position in the Kentucky Derby which puts some added pressure on new favored son jockey Prat. Talented colt but might need some good fortune to negotiate traffic in this 12 horse group with little speed signed on but looms as the one to beat especially if he can sit closer.
Volcanic - if you are looking for a horse at a big price to get involved, may I suggest this Violence colt? Comes out of decent wide trip third at Tampa and might wind up in a good spot saving ground behind soft pace setters, third race back in form cycle, has run decent numbers (4.25 + 5.5 TG) since returning from layoff. Don’t necessarily love him but he will almost assuredly be under bet vs his actual chances and the other horse who has beaten Charge It is among the Kentucky Derby favorites.
Emmanuel - was way overbet in his stakes debut in Fountain of Youth last time and ran well enough after getting very wide trip which was predicted by the GIC Digest handicappers. He earned a TG of 4.25 (a big jump from his previous 8.5 sand 9.25 ) mostly based on ground loss with after a 5w,4w trip, finishing 4th beaten 5.25 lengths. The key here is that he may find himself as the main speed in a race that is really devoid of it. He isn’t all that fast but look through this group and try to find anyone else outside Fenwick and Trademark, neither whom is particularly fleet, who has ever been on the lead in a race? Saez is an aggressive rider and Keeneland is a track that speed does well at (50% of 9 furlong dirt races at fall meet were won wire to wire per BRIS stats) and being forwardly placed is an advantage which makes Emmanuel a player in here despite his figures being light.
Golden Glider - has made steady progress in his development process at Tampa this winter (who knew Tampa to Keeneland was gonna be a thing years ago when only Tom Proctor and I were doing it?) but he is still slow for a 100 point Derby prep with his top TG of 6.75. Coming from the back of the pack won’t help his chances here either, look for him on the surface switch to turf or back to the synthetic at Woodbine.
Ethereal Road - the Luis Contreras ‘middle of the track lane’ may be open once again this weekend after last weeks balcony move with Secret Oath. Lukas has always been among the toughest trainers to read as his horses often exhibit erratic patterns that are difficult to predict. This horse is another one who has made a couple big jumps with his last taking him from too slow to fringe contender status. The issue is that the number was based in large part to the 4w,4w trip that he got (he was very game) in a race that came back super slow. This spot might be more of the same as there isn’t much pace for the notorious slow starter to run into and with many others also looking to swing out to make their late runs, where will his path take him?
Rattle N Roll - I was surprised when he showed up in the Louisiana Derby as his best race by far was at Keeneland (Breeders Futurity in October where he won with a 3.5 TG) . Wheeling back in two weeks isn’t ideal but it’s also not as big of a deal for a one run closer like this guy. Of course as stated previously this isn’t exactly a race that would seem to be conducive to dead closers and even with blinkers added I’m questioning his fit style-wise in here.
Smile Happy - talented late runner has been mostly a ghost on the Derby trail scene with only one appearance in New Orleans when 2nd to Epicenter in the Risen Star. Currently sitting 17th on the Derby points list, he has to be in top 4 here to avoid landing on the bubble to even get in depending on what happens in the other 100 point preps. Has a win over the strip and is generally the fastest colt in here with his last two TG figs coming in at 2 + 2.5. His work tab has been tepid since the Risen Star with mostly ordinary four furlong works wrapped around one solid bullet 58.4 on March 19 at Gulfstream. The outside post and lack of pace are concerns here and at a short price we will pass.
Blackadder - scratched out of a much more logical spot in the Jeff Ruby last weekend. Hasn’t shown all that much despite winning middling version of the El Camino Real over synthetic last out. His only dirt win was a pokey off the turf maiden at Santa Anita where he got a 10 TG which isn’t close to competitive here. Style of running isn’t enhanced by race makeup either. So if you haven’t figured it out by now, we aren’t high on his chances in here.
Grantham - we used him in the Tampa Bay Derby as a horse who figured to get a great trip at a long price and he backed up our faith by running second at 38-1. However that was then and this is now. He didn’t make a jump in figures for that perfect pocket trip and is just too slow and with post 12 is highly unlikely to get a golden trip again. Look for Grantham to take Richmond later in the year in the Virginia Derby on the weeds.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Rattle N Roll
Wood Memorial Gr. II $750000 9 furlongs
Mo Donegal - scratched from Fountain of Youth last month at GP, is in the unenviable position of having to be in the top 2 to be guaranteed a KY Derby starting slot. That said this appears to be a race full of early pace types that should flatter his mid-pack stalking style but he is not particularly fast with a steady series of 6 TG’s. You can assume that at some point he will jump up in figures breaking through the 6 level but are you prepared to do it at a short price?
Golden Code - the second of the three Pletcher runners exits a mild bid third in the Gotham and stretches out to two turns here. Should be fairly close to the pace and perhaps can hang around and hit the board at a long price if that pace gets heated?
Early Voting - another of the barely prepped Brown contenders, he only has two races, will show early speed and figures to see more pressure or be forced to run faster than even the hot paced Withers where he built up a long lead allowing him to coast home his last 1/8 in 14.1. Another that will be short price despite never having run a figure that could be called fast (6 + 5.75) at this stage of the Derby trail. It’s not that he can’t win, it’s that his odds will be far lower than what his actual % chance of winning is.
Long Term - how often do you see Todd Pletcher run a maiden in a Derby prep? How often have you seen Todd Pletcher run TWO maidens in Derby preps on the same day? If this alone doesn’t speak to the relative softness of this current crop of three year olds, I’m not sure what else will. Adding to the craziness is that this horse who has been 2nd in all of his four starts is actually the fastest of the 5 Pletcher Derby prep starters today registering a 2.5 TG in his latest runner up effort! That big number followed a pair of 8’s but three year olds can often jump to new levels and repeat that effort. He has had some gate trouble and does have blinkers off and honestly it’s difficult to know what to do with him in here but you will be getting a square price for sure.
Morello - has done nothing wrong so far, starting his career with three romps in three starts with the Gotham his latest conquest. Has never run two turns so that question has to be asked and in his one turn races he has been stalking quick paces so he figures to not let Early Voting slip away too far in the early stages. Has run fast (1.75 + 2.75 TG) and should get the type of trip that gives him a big chance but I have a nagging feeling that he might not want the 9 furlongs.
Skippylongstocking - makes his 9th start today, coming in off of big fig effort while getting dream pace set up (21.4 - 45) going 9 furlongs. This is a much tougher group and we aren’t going to see anything close to a 21.4 opening quarter even if the pace does figure to be solid.
A.P.’s Secret - another that ensures that the pace won’t be slow, he encountered some issues in the Fountain of Youth but it didn’t appear he was going to be a factor before it occurred either. Hasn’t cracked a 7.75 TG yet.
Barese - New York bred has been perfect in his three starts all at shorter one turn distances. Ran a 2.5 TG last out which was by far his best effort but not sure his pedigree screams 9 furlongs either.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Morello
Santa Anita Derby Gr. I $1000000 9 furlongs
Happy Jack - it’s rare that a horse that’s been beaten 37 lengths in two Derby preps has actually earned points but welcome to the 2022 California road to the Kentucky Derby! Has never run fast and unless there is some insane three way speed duel that cooks all the good horses (unlikely), I can’t recommend.
Armagnac - got trounced chasing Forbidden Kingdom last time, he isn’t fast enough to be a rabbit and just unsure why he is in here?
Forbidden Kingdom - blew the doors off of a weak group in the San Vincente with runner up Doppleganger returning to run a mediocre 4th beaten 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. He ran a very solid 2.25 TG in there and figures to employ the same aggressive ‘gun to the lead and stay clear’ tactics that worked so well for him. Did run 2nd to Messier back at Del Mar in the Bob Hope though he was pressed through wild fractions (21.1 - 43.1) and won’t have to go quite that fast again. Unless the newcomer Taiba is willing or able to challenge him on the lead, it’s his race to win or lose.
Messier - ‘Baffert off’ is something that we have rarely encountered on the Triple Crown trail over the last two decades. Unlikely to be pressed to keep up early with Forbidden Kingdom we will see how well he can chase around two turns. Was blowout winner of Robert Lewis though the competition which looked soft on paper that day, has done exactly nothing since. Wharton and Sir London haven’t even worked since February, Cabo Spirit has gotten drubbed twice since and then there is Happy Jack. He has consistently been among the fastest of his generation on figures (ran 1 TG last out) has good tactical speed and a solid record which make him dangerous and he is also the most likely in this group to capitalize if Forbidden Kingdom can’t get the trip but you won’t get rich backing him.
Win the Day - probably won’t and appears to be a tad bit overmatched by the top three. Did greatly improve on the surface switch to dirt after two fair turf races but like the other O’Neill entrant, needs a nuclear pace meltdown to have any prayer.
Taiba - another ‘Baffert off’ runner, this one coming out of an impressive debut score albeit only going six furlongs. Stretched out to nine furlongs and drawing in against two really good, seasoned runners makes this Gun Runner colt’s task extremely difficult. Not sure what Mike Smith intends on doing with him but it’s likely that he doesn’t get to save much ground which makes life even tougher. I don’t know the record of horses that win six furlong maiden races first out that are immediately stretched out to nine furlong grade I races in their second start but it can’t be good because I can’t think of any that have been successful.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Forbidden Kingdom
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